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中国真实新冠死亡人数迷雾中,学者们的死亡提供线索
In China’s Covid Fog, Deaths of Scholars Offer a Clue

来源:纽约时报    2023-02-07 03:13



        Four members of China’s two most prestigious academic institutions died in October – in line with the average in recent years.
        10月,中国两个最负盛名的学术机构中有四名学者去世,人数与往年相比无异。
        These are some of the country’s most decorated scientists. The academies publish obituaries to memorialize their contributions.
        他们是中国屡获殊荣的科学家。两个机构发布讣告以纪念他们的贡献。
        In November, Covid cases surged across the country.
        11月,新冠病例在全国激增。
        Then, on Dec. 8, China abandoned its tight Covid restrictions.
        然后,在12月8日,中国放弃了对新冠的严格限制。
        The obituaries began accumulating. As the weeks went on, they shot up. A total of 40 scholars died in the past two months.
        讣告开始越来越多,数量在几周内猛增。过去两个月共有40名学者去世。
        We examined the obituaries published over the past four years by the state-backed Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
        我们检查了过去四年有政府背景的中国工程院和中国科学院发表的讣告。
        The academies’ members, who are drawn from research institutions across the country, help shape national policy and steer research priorities. The engineering academy currently has about 900 members, and the science academy about 800, according to their websites.
        这两所学院的成员来自全国各地的研究机构,他们帮助制定国家政策并引导研究重点。根据它们的网站,中国工程院目前约有900名成员,中国科学院约有800名成员。
        The obituaries did not specify the scholars’ causes of death beyond “illness,” and the academies did not answer requests for more specifics. But the spike late last year coincided with the coronavirus’s rapid spread across the country.
        除了“因病逝世”,讣告没有具体说明学者们的死因,这些学院也没有回答更具体的问题。但去年年底的讣告激增恰逢新冠病毒在全国迅速传播时期。
        Infections had already begun rising in the fall, despite China’s strict “zero Covid” policy of lockdowns and mass testing. Then, after the government suddenly abandoned the policy in early December, amid a flailing economy and protests in multiple cities, cases soared.
        尽管中国通过严格封锁和大规模检测实施了“清零”政策,但感染人数已在秋季开始上升。然后,多个城市爆发抗议活动,经济不景气,政府于12月初突然放弃该政策,此后病例激增。
        During that chaotic period, hospitals turned away patients and funeral homes staggered under the number of bodies. The government’s accounting, however, did not reflect those tragic scenes — for weeks it reported just three dozen deaths — and it drew widespread criticism for a lack of transparency.
        在那段混乱时期,医院将病人拒之门外,殡仪馆因遗体太多而超负荷运转。然而,这些悲惨的场景并没有通过政府报告的数字体现——政府几周来只报告了30多例死亡,并因缺乏透明度而招致广泛批评。
        The government has released more data in recent weeks, saying it recorded about 80,000 deaths since it lifted Covid restrictions. Still, many experts say that figure is likely an undercount, as it includes only people who died in hospitals; some have estimated that the death toll in China could exceed 1 million people in the coming months.
        政府最近几周发布了更多数据,称自取消新冠限制以来录得约8万人死亡。尽管如此,许多专家表示这个数字可能被低估了,因为它只包括在医院死亡的人;有人估计,未来几个月,中国的死亡人数可能会超过100万。
        On Chinese social media, users have pointed to the skyrocketing number of obituaries published by places like the two academies, to suggest that the true number of deaths is much higher than the official figure.
        在中国社交媒体上,用户指出,类似机构发布的讣告数量激增,表明真实死亡人数远高于官方数字。
        Any count is likely to be incomplete because the government has largely abandoned Covid testing, including in hospitals, said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. “The reality is that even the government might not know everything,” he said.
        香港大学病毒学家金冬雁说,由于政府基本上已经放弃了新冠病毒检测,包括在医院进行的检测,所以任何计数可能都不完整。“现实情况是,即使政府也可能不知道全部情况,”他说。
        “It’s the government’s job” to gather and share accurate information, Dr. Jin continued. “But they’re not doing their job.”
        金冬雁还说,收集和分享准确信息是“政府的工作”。“但他们没有做好自己的工作。”
        The deceased included molecular biologists, nuclear physicists and experts in agricultural chemistry. One academy member, Ma Jianzhang, 86, was a wildlife scientist who specialized in Siberian tigers. He helped establish the country’s only college for wildlife and nature reserves, and led groups including the China Zoological Society and the China Wildlife Conservation Association.
        逝世者包括分子生物学家、核物理学家和农业化学专家。86岁的院士马建章是一位专门研究东北虎的野生动物科学家。他帮助建立了中国唯一的野生动物和自然保护学院,并领导了包括中国动物学会和中国野生动物保护协会在内的团体。
        Reached by phone, a relative of Professor Ma said that she did not know whether he had contracted Covid, because he had not been tested. He had other underlying diseases, she added.
        记者通过电话联系到马建章教授的一位亲属,她说不知道他是否感染了新冠病毒,因为他没有做过检测。她补充说,他还有其他基础疾病。
        “To the outside world, he may be someone with great achievements or influence,” the relative, Fu Qun, said. “To our family, he was more important as a sort of spiritual leader. We all respected him very much.”
        “对外界来讲可能是有功勋伟业什么影响的人,”这位名叫符群的亲属说,“对我们家人来讲,更重视的他是一个精神引领,精神领袖一样的存在,我们都非常敬重他。”
        The data drawn from the obituaries are far from conclusive. The institutions also did not answer questions about whether the obituaries — both during the outbreak and before — were exhaustive of all scholars who had died.
        从讣告中获得的远非确凿数据。这些讣告是否详尽无遗地列出了所有已故学者,两所学院无论是在爆发期间还是之前,都没有回答这一问题。
        Still, obituaries published by other institutions showed similar spikes in late December and early January.
        尽管如此,其他学术机构发布的讣告数量在12月底和1月初也出现了类似的飙升。
        From 2019 to 2021, the Harbin Institute of Technology, one of the top engineering schools in the world, had published between one and three obituaries for professors and staff members in those months. Between December and last month, it announced 29 deaths.
        在世界顶尖工程学院之一的哈尔滨工业大学,2019年到2021年,在当年的那几个月,共发布了一到三篇教授和教职员工的讣告。从去年12月到上个月,该校宣布有29人死亡。
        University-wide obituaries were not publicly available for Peking University, one of China’s most prestigious. But some individual departments published obituaries for their own professors and staff.
        北京大学是中国最负盛名的大学之一,大学范围内的讣告并未公开。但个别部门为自己的教授和教职员工发布了讣告。
        Those who died included Luo Xiaochun, 68, a former director of the library for the Foreign Languages department; Zhao Binghua, 91, a founder of Peking University’s nursing school, who had recalled juggling housework and care for her two children with her duties as a pediatrician in the 1960s; and Guo Xiliang, 93, a linguist who had continued publishing books on ancient Chinese phonetics into his 90s.
        逝者包括68岁的外国语学院原图书馆馆长罗晓春;91岁的北京大学护理学院创始人赵炳华,她曾在一次专访中回忆起1960年代担任儿科医生时兼顾家务和照顾两个孩子;93岁的语言学家郭锡良,他在90多岁时仍在继续出版有关汉字古音的书籍。
        Professor Guo had been infected with the coronavirus when he died, according to Zhang Meng, a former student and colleague of the professor at Peking University.
        据北京大学郭锡良教授的前学生兼同事张猛说,郭教授去世时感染了新冠病毒。
        In December, both Peking University and Tsinghua University, another top-ranked school in Beijing, issued notices urging greater protection for retired faculty and staff.
        去年12月,北京大学和北京另一所顶尖大学清华大学都发布了通知,敦促加强对退休教职工的保护。
        Chinese health officials have said that the outbreak peaked in late December and that cases are steadily declining. But the country has still not addressed many of the underlying issues in its health system, such as less effective vaccines and insufficient hospital beds, said Professor Jin, in Hong Kong.
        中国卫生官员表示,疫情在12月下旬达到顶峰,病例正在稳步下降。但在香港的金冬雁表示,中国仍未解决其卫生系统中的许多根本问题,例如疫苗效果不佳和病床不足。
        “That means, even if you have very small spikes in the future, more people will still die,” he said. “If they don’t learn their lesson, that would be the new situation.”
        “这意味着,即使未来出现非常小的峰值,仍然会有更多人死亡,”他说。“如果他们不吸取教训,就会出现那样的新情况。”
        
        
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