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| WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that the global economy was expected to slow this year as central banks continued to raise interest rates to tame inflation, but it also suggested that growth would be more resilient than previously anticipated and that a global recession would probably be avoided. | 华盛顿——国际货币基金组织（简称IMF）周一表示，随着各国央行继续加息以遏制通胀，今年全球经济增长预计将会放缓。但该组织也表示，经济增长将比此前预期更具弹性，全球性衰退或可避免。 |
| The I.M.F. upgraded its economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 in its closely watched World Economic Outlook report, pointing to resilient consumers and the reopening of China’s economy as among the reasons for a more optimistic outlook. | 在备受关注的《世界经济展望》报告中，IMF上调了2023年和2024年的经济增长预期，指出消费者活力和中国经济重新开放是前景更加乐观的原因之一。 |
| The fund warned, however, that the fight against inflation was not over and urged central banks to avoid the temptation to change course. | 不过，该基金组织警告称，对抗通胀的斗争尚未结束，并敦促各国央行要顶住转向的诱惑。 |
| “The fight against inflation is starting to pay off, but central banks must continue their efforts,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said in an essay that accompanied the report. | “抗击通胀已初见成效，但各国央行必须继续努力，”IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在该报告的附文中表示。 |
| Global output is projected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2023, from 3.4 percent last year, before rebounding to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation is expected to decline to 6.6 percent this year from 8.8 percent in 2022 and then to fall to 4.3 percent next year. | 全球经济产出增速预计将从去年的3.4%放缓至2023年的2.9%，然后到2024年反弹至3.1%。通货膨胀率预计将从2022年的8.8%下降至今年的6.6%，明年再降到4.3%。 |
| After a succession of downgrades in recent years as the pandemic worsened and Russia’s war in Ukraine intensified, the I.M.F. latest forecasts were rosier than those the fund released in October. | 随着近年来疫情恶化，以及俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的紧张升级，IMF连续下调了经济预期，但其最新预测比去年10月发布的版本更加乐观。 |
| Since then, China abruptly reversed its “zero Covid” policy of lockdowns to contain the pandemic and embarked on a rapid reopening. The I.M.F. also said that the energy crisis in Europe had been less severe than initially feared and that the weakening of the U.S. dollar was providing relief to emerging markets. | 自去年10月以来，中国突然扭转了为遏制疫情而采取的“清零”封锁政策，并迅速着手重新开放。IMF还表示，欧洲能源危机并没有最初担心的那么严重，美元走弱缓解了新兴市场的压力。 |
| The I.M.F. predicted previously that a third of the world economy could be in recession this year. However, Mr. Gourinchas said in a news briefing ahead of the release of the report that far fewer countries were now facing recessions in 2023 and that the I.M.F. was not forecasting a global recession. | IMF此前预测今年全球三分之一的经济体可能陷入衰退。不过，古兰沙在报告发布前的新闻发布会上表示，目前面临2023年经济衰退的国家远少于此，IMF也没有预测会出现全球性衰退。 |
| “We are seeing a much lower risk of recession, either globally, or even if we think about the number of countries that might be in recession,” Mr. Gourinchas said. | “我们看到经济衰退的风险大大降低，在全球范围内如此，即便考虑到可能陷入衰退的国家数量也是如此，”古兰沙表示。 |
| Despite the more hopeful outlook, global growth remains weak by historical standards and the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on activity and sow uncertainty. The report also cautions that the global economy still faces considerable risks, warning that “severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress.” | 尽管前景更加乐观，但以历史标准衡量，全球经济增长依然疲软，乌克兰战争为经济活动持续制造压力，带来了不确定性。该报告指出，全球经济仍面临相当大的风险，警告称“中国严峻的健康问题可能阻碍复苏，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争可能升级，全球融资成本收紧也可能加剧债务危机。” |
| Growth in rich countries is expected to be particularly sluggish this year, with nine out of 10 advanced economies likely to have slower growth than they had in 2022. | 富裕国家今年的增长预计将会特别缓慢，在10个发达经济体中，有九个经济体的增长可能比2022年更慢。 |
| The I.M.F. projects growth in the United States to slow to 1.4 percent this year from 2 percent in 2022. In the euro area, growth is projected to slow 3.5 percent to 0.7 percent. China is projected to pick up the slack with output accelerating to 5.2 percent in 2023 from 3 percent in 2022. | IMF预计，美国今年的经济增速将从2022年的2%放缓至1.4%。在欧元区，经济增速预计将从3.5%放缓至0.7%。预计中国能弥补缺口，经济产出将从2022年的3%加速至2023年的5.2%。 |
| Russia is also helping to fuel global growth, suggesting efforts by Western nations to cripple Russia’s economy appear to be faltering. The I.M.F. predicts Russian output to expand by 0.3 percent in this year and by 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts of a steep contraction in 2023 amid a raft of Western sanctions. | 俄罗斯也加入了全球增长的势头，表明西方国家削弱其经济的努力似乎成效不大。IMF预测，俄罗斯今年经济产出将增长0.3%，明年则为2.1%，这打破了早前的预测，即在西方的一系列制裁下，俄罗斯经济将在2023年急剧萎缩。 |
| A coordinated plan by the United States and Europe to cap the price of Russian oil exports at $60 a barrel is not expected to substantially curtail its energy revenues. | 美国与欧洲的一项协作计划将俄罗斯石油出口价格限制在每桶60美元，但这预计不会大幅削减该国的能源收入。 |
| “At the current oil price cap level of the Group of 7, Russian crude oil export volumes are not expected to be significantly affected, with Russian trade continuing to be redirected from sanctioning to non-sanctioning countries,” the I.M.F. said in the report. | “按照七国集团目前的石油限价，俄罗斯原油出口预计不会受到重大影响，该国贸易将继续从制裁国家流向未制裁国家，”IMF报告中写道。 |
| Among the I.M.F.’s most pressing concerns is the growing trend toward “fragmentation.” The war in Ukraine and the global response has divided nations into blocs and reinforced pockets of geopolitical tension, threatening to hamper economic progress. | 日益“分裂”的趋势是IMF提出的最紧迫问题之一。乌克兰战争和全球反应将各国分化为利益集团，加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，可能阻碍经济发展。 |
| “Fragmentation could intensify — with more restrictions on cross-border movements of capital, workers and international payments — and could hamper multilateral cooperation on providing global public goods,” the I.M.F. said. “The costs of such fragmentation are especially high in the short term, as replacing disrupted cross-border flows takes time.” | “分裂可能加剧，意味着资本、劳动力和国际支付的跨境流动将更加受限；并可能阻碍全球公共产品供应的多边合作，”IMF表示。“这种分裂的成本在短期内尤其高昂，因为取代中断的跨境流动需要时间。” |
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