解析：中国人口危机为何让世界感到担忧？_OK阅读网
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解析：中国人口危机为何让世界感到担忧？
Why China’s Shrinking Population Is Cause for Alarm

来源：纽约时报    2023-01-19 11:39



        New data released this week by the Chinese government revealed that China’s population has begun to shrink, a momentous shift that will have broad ripple effects both domestically and globally.
        中国政府本周发布的新数据显示，中国人口已经开始负增长，这一重大转变将在国内和全球产生广泛的连锁反应。
        The government said on Tuesday that deaths last year in China had outnumbered births for the first time in decades.
        政府周二表示，去年中国的死亡人数几十年来首次超过出生人数。
        This could spell the end of China’s position as the world’s most populous country, a transition that could profoundly reshape the global economy in the long run. India’s total population is expected to surpass China’s later this year, according to a recent estimate from the United Nations. Here’s why economists and others are alarmed by the developments.
        这可能意味着中国不再是世界上人口最多的国家，从长远来看，这一转变可能会深刻地重塑全球经济。根据联合国的最新估算，印度的总人口预计将在今年晚些时候超过中国。以下是经济学家和其他人士对事态发展感到担忧的原因。
        China’s shrinking work force could hobble the global economy.
        中国不断萎缩的劳动力可能会拖累全球经济。
        For years, China’s massive working-age population powered the global economic engine, supplying the factory workers whose cheap labor produced goods that were exported around the world.
        多年来，中国庞大的适龄劳动人口为全球经济引擎提供动力，为工厂提供廉价劳动力，他们生产的商品出口到世界各地。
        In the long run, a shortage of factory workers in China — driven by a more educated work force and a shrinking population of young people — could raise costs for consumers outside China, potentially exacerbating inflation in countries like the United States that rely heavily on imported Chinese products. Facing rising labor costs in China, many companies have already been shifting their manufacturing operations to lower-paying countries like Vietnam and Mexico.
        劳动力受教育程度的提升，加上年轻人的减少，推动了中国工厂的工人短缺，从长远来看，这可能会增加中国境外消费者的成本，加剧美国等严重依赖进口中国产品的国家的通货膨胀。面对中国不断上涨的劳动力成本，许多公司已经将制造业务转移到越南和墨西哥等工资较低的国家。
        A shrinking population could also mean a decline in spending from Chinese consumers, threatening global brands dependent on sales of products to China, from Apple smartphones to Nike sneakers.
        人口负增长也可能意味着中国消费者的支出下降，威胁到从苹果智能手机到耐克运动鞋等依赖中国市场的全球品牌。
        The data is bad news for China’s crucial housing market.
        该数据对中国至关重要的房地产市场来说是个坏消息。
        In the short term, a plunging birthrate poses a major threat to China’s real estate sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the country’s economic output. Population growth is a key driver of housing demand, and homeownership is the most important asset for many Chinese people. During widespread pandemic lockdowns that dampened consumer spending and export growth, China’s economy became even more dependent on the ailing housing sector.
        短期内，出生率下降对中国的房地产行业构成重大威胁，该行业约占该国经济产出的四分之一。人口增长是住房需求的主要驱动力，而拥有住房是许多中国人最重要的资产。在大规模封锁期间，消费者支出和出口增长遭到抑制，中国经济变得更加依赖不景气的房地产行业。
        The government recently intervened to help distressed real estate developers in an attempt to stem the fallout of its housing crisis.
        政府最近进行了干预，帮助陷入困境的房地产开发商，试图遏制住房危机的影响。
        China’s shrinking work force may not be able to support its growing aging population.
        中国不断减少的劳动力可能无法支持其不断增长的老龄化人口。
        With fewer working-age people in the long run, the government could struggle to pay for an enormous population that is growing older and living longer. A 2019 report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that the country’s main pension fund would run out of money by 2035, in part because of the shrinking work force.
        从长远来看，随着适龄劳动力人口的减少，政府可能难以为日益老龄化和更长寿的庞大人口埋单。中国社会科学院2019年的一份报告预测，到2035年，中国的主要养老基金将耗尽，一定程度上是劳动力减少所致。
        Economists have compared China’s demographic crisis to the one that stalled Japan’s economic boom in the 1990s.
        经济学家将中国的人口危机与1990年代令日本的经济繁荣陷入停滞的危机相提并论。
        But China does not have the same resources as a country like Japan to provide a safety net for its aging population. Its households live on much lower incomes on average than in the U.S. and elsewhere. Many older Chinese residents rely on state pension payments as a key source of income during retirement.
        但中国没有像日本那样的资源来为其老龄化人口提供安全网。中国家庭的平均收入与美国和其他地方相比要低得多。许多年长的中国居民依靠国家养老金作为退休后的主要收入来源。
        China also has some of the lowest retirement ages in the world, with most workers retiring by age 60. The situation has imposed tremendous strain not only on state pension funds, but also on the country’s hospital system.
        中国也是世界上退休年龄最低的国家之一，大多数工作者在60岁退休。这种情况不仅给国家养老基金带来了巨大压力，也给医院系统带来了巨大压力。
        The crisis has been decades in the making.
        这场危机已经酝酿了几十年。
        China introduced the one-child policy in the late 1970s, arguing that it was necessary to keep population growth from reaching unsustainable levels. The government imposed onerous fines on most couples who had more than one child and compelled hundreds of millions of Chinese women to have abortions. Many families favored boys over girls, often aborting baby girls or abandoning them at birth, resulting in a huge surplus of single men in the Chinese population.
        中国在20世纪70年代后期开始实行独生子女政策，它当时认为有必要防止人口增长达到不可持续的水平。政府对大多数拥有多于一个孩子的夫妇处以巨额罚款，并强迫数亿中国女性堕胎。许多家庭重男轻女，经常将女婴引产或遗弃，导致中国人口中单身男性大量过剩。
        China announced the relaxing of family size restrictions in 2013, but many demographic experts said the change had come too late to change the country’s population trajectory.
        中国在2013年宣布放宽家庭人数限制，但许多人口专家表示，这一变化来得太晚，无法改变该国的人口走势。
        There are no easy fixes to the problem.
        这个问题没有简单的解决办法。
        The government’s efforts to spur a baby boom to solve the demographic crisis — including offering cash handouts and easing the one-child policy to allow for three children — have failed to stabilize falling birthrates. Educated Chinese women are increasingly delaying marriage and choosing not to have children, deterred by the high cost of housing and education.
        政府为解决人口危机而刺激生育高峰的努力——包括提供现金补助和放宽独生子女政策以允许生育三个孩子——未能稳定下降的出生率。由于住房和教育成本高昂，受过教育的中国女性越来越多地推迟结婚并选择不生孩子。
        China has also been unwilling to loosen immigration rules to boost the population, historically issuing relatively few green cards to replenish its shrinking work force.
        中国也一直不愿放宽移民规定以增加人口，历来发行的绿卡数量相对较少，不足以补充不断减少的劳动力。
        To address the labor shortage, China has been outsourcing low-skilled production to other countries in Asia and adding more automation to its factories, hoping to rely more on artificial intelligence and technology sectors for future growth.
        为解决劳动力短缺问题，中国一直将低技能生产外包给亚洲其他国家，并为其工厂增加更多自动化设备，希望更多地依赖人工智能和技术领域来实现未来增长。
        
        
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