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解析巴西首都动乱:究竟发生了什么?
What Drove a Mass Attack on Brazil’s Capital? Mass Delusion.

来源:纽约时报    2023-01-10 05:48



        For the past 10 weeks, supporters of the ousted far-right President Jair Bolsonaro had camped outside Brazilian Army headquarters, demanding that the military overturn October’s presidential election. And for the past 10 weeks, the protesters faced little resistance from the government.        过去10周里,已下台的极右翼总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的支持者在巴西陆军总部外扎营聚集,要求军方推翻10月总统大选的结果。而在过去这10周里,政府对抗议者没有采取过什么反制措施。
        Then, on Sunday, many of the camp’s inhabitants left their tents in Brasília, the nation’s capital, drove a few miles away and, joining hundreds of other protesters, stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential offices.        但在周日,营地里许多人离开了他们位于首都巴西利亚的帐篷,驱车数公里加入成百上千的其他抗议者,一起向国会、最高法院和总统办公室发起冲击。
        By Monday morning, the authorities were sweeping through the encampment. They dismantled tents, tore down banners and detained 1,200 of the protesters, ferrying them away in buses for questioning.        周一早上,当局彻底清理了营地。他们拆除帐篷,撕下横幅,还拘捕了1200名抗议者,用巴士将他们带走接受审问。
        Why an encampment demanding a military coup was allowed to expand for over 70 days was part of a larger set of questions that officials were grappling with on Monday, among them:        为何要求军事政变的营地会被允许发展壮大逾70天,这是周一官员们正努力解决的更多问题之一,这些问题还包括:
        Why were protests allowed to get so close to Brazil’s halls of power? And why had security forces been so outnumbered, allowing throngs of protesters to easily surge into official government buildings?        为何允许抗议如此接近巴西的权力中心?为何安全部队部署如此之少,以至于让成群抗议者轻易冲入了政府大楼?
        Brazil’s justice minister, Flávio Dino, said various security agencies had met on Friday to plan for possible violence in the planned protests on Sunday. But, he said, the security strategy hatched in that meeting, including keeping protesters away from the main government buildings, was at least partly abandoned on Sunday and there were far fewer law enforcement officers than had been anticipated.        巴西司法部长弗拉维奥·迪诺表示,各安全部门已于周五会面,准备应对计划在周日举行的抗议中可能发生的暴力事件。但他表示,这次会议上制定的安全策略——包括让抗议者远离主要政府建筑物——在周日至少被部分放弃,执法人员人数也远低于预期。
        “The police contingent was not what had been agreed upon,” he said, adding that it was unclear why plans had changed.        “警力分遣人数跟之前商量好的不一样,”他说,并补充称尚不清楚计划为何出现变动。
        Some in the federal government blamed the governor of Brasília, Ibaneis Rocha, and his deputies, suggesting that they had been either negligent or complicit in understaffing the security forces around the protests.        联邦政府的一些官员指责巴西利亚政府首长伊班尼斯·罗查及其副手,称他们不是玩忽职守就是沆瀣一气,才导致抗议现场安全部队人手不足。
        Late Sunday, Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice, suspended Mr. Rocha from his job as governor for at least 90 days, saying that the upheaval “could only occur with the consent, and even effective participation, of the security and intelligence authorities.”        周日晚些时候,最高法院法官亚历山大·德·莫拉埃斯宣布暂停罗查的首长职务至少90天,他说,这场动乱“只有在安全和情报部门同意、甚至主动参与的情况下才可能发生”。
        Whatever security lapses may have occurred, Sunday’s riot laid bare in shocking fashion the central challenge facing Brazil’s democracy. Unlike other attempts to topple governments across Latin America’s history, the attacks on Sunday were not ordered by a single strongman ruler or a military bent on seizing power, but rather were fueled by a more insidious, deeply rooted threat: mass delusion.        无论安全部门是否存在过失,周日的骚乱惊人地暴露出巴西民主制度面临的核心挑战。与拉丁美洲历史上试图颠覆政府的其他行动不同,周日的袭击事件并非由强人统治者或决心夺取政权的军队所发动,而是出于更加隐蔽且根深蒂固的危机:集体妄想。
        Millions of Brazilians appear to be convinced that October’s presidential election was rigged against Mr. Bolsonaro, despite audits and analyses by experts finding nothing of the sort. Those beliefs are in part the product of years of conspiracy theories, misleading statements and explicit falsehoods spread by Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies claiming Brazil’s fully electronic voting systems are rife with fraud.        虽然专家审计和分析均未发现任何问题,但无数巴西人似乎相信,10月的总统大选受到了不利于博尔索纳罗的操纵。这些信念在一定程度上是博尔索纳罗及其盟友长期传播阴谋论、误导性声明和不加掩饰的虚假信息的结果,他们宣称巴西的全电子投票系统充斥着欺诈行为。
        Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have been repeating the claims for months, and then built on them with new conspiracy theories passed along in group chats on WhatsApp and Telegram, many focused on the idea that the electronic voting machines’ software was manipulated to steal the election. On Sunday, protesters stood on the roof of Congress with a banner that made a single demand: “We want the source code.”        几个月来,博尔索纳罗的支持者不断重复这些说法,随后又以其为基础,在WhatsApp和Telegram的群聊中传播新的阴谋论,许多人都执着于电子投票机软件被操纵以窃取选举的想法。周日,抗议者站在国会的屋顶上,举着一面横幅,上面只有一个诉求:“我们要源代码。”
        Walking out of the protest encampment on Monday morning, Orlando Pinheiro Farias, 40, said he had entered the presidential offices on Sunday with fellow protesters to find documents related to “the investigations into the source code, which legitimize that Jair Messias Bolsonaro is the president of Brazil.”        周一早上,40岁的奥兰多·皮涅罗·法里亚斯在走出抗议营地时表示,周日他和其他抗议者一起进入总统办公室,寻找与“源代码调查”有关的文件,“以证明雅伊尔·梅西亚斯·博尔索纳罗才是巴西的总统”。
        He rattled off several government acronyms and secret investigations that he had read about on the internet, and then said that he had to go back to his tent to retrieve a Brazilian flag he had stolen from the building.        他滔滔不绝地说着许多政府缩写词和网上看到的秘密调查,然后又说自己得回帐篷里找一面他从政府大楼里偷出来的巴西国旗。
        Delusions over the election extended to many protesters’ explanations of what had happened in the riots. People filing out of the encampment on Monday morning, carrying rolled-up air mattresses, extension cords and stools, each had a clear message: Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters had not ransacked the buildings. Rather, they said, those causing the damage were radical leftists in disguise, bent on defaming their movement.        关于大选的妄想也为许多抗议者对骚乱中所发生的一切提供了解释。周一早上,营地里的人带着卷好的充气床垫、插线板和凳子鱼贯而出,每个人的态度都是明确的:博尔索纳罗的支持者没有洗劫那些大楼。相反,他们说是伪装的激进左派在制造破坏,这些人只想抹黑他们的运动。
        “Have you ever heard of the Trojan Horse?” said Nathanael S. Viera, 51, who had driven 900 miles to take part in the protests on Sunday. “The infiltrators went in and set everything up, and the damn press showed the Brazilian nation that we patriots are the hooligans.”        “你知道特洛伊木马的故事吗?”51岁的纳撒内尔·S·维埃拉说,他驱车近1500公里来参加周日的抗议。“卧底闯进去安排好了一切,而该死的媒体告诉巴西人民,我们这些爱国者才是流氓。”
        The scenes on Sunday of right-wing protesters draped in their national flag roaming through the halls of power were strikingly similar to those from the Jan. 6 storming of the United States Capitol, and so were the confused beliefs that drove protesters in both countries to invade federal buildings and film themselves doing so.        身披国旗的右翼抗议者在周日穿梭于国家权力中心的场景,与1月6日美国国会大厦遭受的冲击有惊人的相似,驱使两国抗议者闯入联邦政府大楼并拍摄记录全程的混乱信仰也如出一辙。
        “Donald Trump was taken out with a rigged election, no question about it, and at the time he was taken out, I said, ‘President Bolsonaro is going to be taken down,’” said Wanderlei Silva, 59, a retired hotel worker standing outside the encampment on Monday.        “特朗普是因为选举舞弊才下台的,这一点毫无疑问,而他下台时我就说过,‘博尔索纳罗总统也会被扳倒的,’”周一,59岁的退休酒店员工万德雷·席尔瓦站在营地外说道。
        Mr. Silva saw his own similarities between the riots on Sunday and those on Jan. 6, 2021. “The Democrats staged that and invaded the Capitol,” he said. “The same way they staged it here.”        对于周日骚乱与2021年1月6日骚乱的相似之处,席尔瓦有自己的看法。“民主党人策划了那场骚乱并入侵了国会大厦,”他说。“就和他们在这里策划的一样。”
        Brazil has long seen itself in the mold of the United States: a sprawling, diverse country rich in natural resources, spread across a collection of independent states and governed by a strong central government. But its tumultuous political history never truly mimicked the American system, until the past several years.        长久以来,巴西一直自比美国模式:这是一个幅员辽阔、人口多元、自然资源丰富的国家,各州保持了独立性,也有强大中央政府的治理。但其动荡的政治历史从未能真正模仿美国的体制,直到最近几年。
        “If there was no Trump, there would be no Bolsonaro in Brazil. And if there was no invasion of the Capitol, there wouldn’t have been the invasion we saw yesterday,” said Guga Chacra, a commentator for Brazil’s largest television network, who lives in New York and tracks politics in both countries. “Bolsonarismo tries to copy Trumpism, and Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil try to copy what Trump supporters do in the United States.”        “没有特朗普,巴西也不会有博尔索纳罗。如果没有国会大厦入侵事件,就不会有我们昨天看到的入侵,”巴西最大电视网络的评论员古加·查克拉说,他现居纽约,追踪两国政治时局。“博尔索纳罗主义试图复刻特朗普主义,而博尔索纳罗的巴西支持者则试图模仿特朗普支持者在美国的行为。”
        Even a description of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election reads like a summary of the 2020 American one: a far-right populist incumbent with a penchant for insults and off-the-cuff tweets against a septuagenarian challenger on the left running on his proven political track record and a promise to unite a divided nation.        甚至连对巴西2022年总统大选的描述,听起来也像对2020年美国总统大选的总结:一位热衷于羞辱冒犯和即兴发推的极右翼民粹主义现任总统,对上一位年逾七旬、政治履历久经考验并承诺要团结一个分裂国家的左翼挑战者。
        But the election’s aftermath was different.        但选举的后果是不同的。
        While former President Donald J. Trump fought to overturn the results and urged his supporters to march on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, Mr. Bolsonaro had effectively given up and decamped for Florida by the time his voters were forcing their way into the offices he once occupied.        虽然前总统特朗普也曾拼命想要推翻选举结果,并鼓动他的支持者于1月6日向美国国会大厦进发,但当博尔索纳罗的选民强行闯入曾属于他的办公室之时,他本人其实已经放弃斗争,并溜到了佛罗里达州。
        Mr. Bolsonaro spent part of Monday in the hospital in Florida, dealing with abdominal pains stemming from a stabbing he suffered in 2018, his wife said on social media. Mr. Bolsonaro is planning to stay in Florida for the next several weeks or months, hoping investigations in Brazil into his activity as president will cool off, according to a friend.        他的妻子在社交媒体上表示,博尔索纳罗周一在佛罗里达州的医院待了一段时间,治疗2018年被刺伤后引起的腹痛。据一位友人透露,博尔索纳罗计划在佛州住上数周或数月,等待巴西对他在担任总统期间活动的调查平息。
        Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, would not comment specifically on Mr. Bolsonaro’s visa status, citing privacy laws. But he said that any person who came to the United States under a diplomatic visa and who “is no longer engaged in official business on behalf of their government” was expected either to depart the country or request a different type of visa within 30 days.        国务院发言人内德·普莱斯据隐私法拒绝具体就博尔索纳罗的签证状态置评。但他说,任何人持外交签证进入美国,且“不再代表其政府从事官方事务”,都需要在30天内离境,或申请不同种类的签证。
        “If an individual has no basis on which to be in the United States, an individual is subject to removal,” Mr. Price said.        “如果一个个人不具备在美国停留的条件,此人就需要被驱逐出境,”普莱斯说。
        In a recorded address in the final days of his presidency, Mr. Bolsonaro said that he had tried and failed to use the law to overturn the 2022 election, and suggested that his supporters should now move on. “We live in a democracy or we don’t,” he said. “No one wants an adventure.” On Sunday, he posted a message on Twitter, criticizing the violence.        在任期最后几天发表的一段事先录制的讲话中,博尔索纳罗说,他尝试通过法律途径推翻2022年选举结果,但没能成功,他建议他的支持者应该放弃。“无论我们是否生活在一个民主国家,”他说。“没人想冒险。”周日,他在推特上发文指责了此次暴力事件。
        But his years of rhetoric against Brazil’s democratic institutions — and his political strategy of instilling fear of the left in his supporters — had already left an indelible mark.         但是他多年来对巴西民主体制的攻击——向自己的支持者灌输对左翼的恐惧是他的政治策略——已经留下了不可磨灭的痕迹。
        Interviews with protesters in recent weeks appeared to show that Mr. Bolsonaro’s movement was moving beyond him. It is now driven by deeply held beliefs among many right-wing Brazilians that political elites rigged the vote to install as president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom they regard as a communist who will turn Brazil into an authoritarian state like Venezuela.        从近几周对抗议者的采访来看,博尔索纳罗的运动似乎已经在抛开他自行前进。现在驱动这场运动的是许多右翼巴西人根深蒂固的观念——政治权贵操纵选举,扶植路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦上台,他们认为此人是个共产主义者,会把巴西变成委内瑞拉那样的专制国家。
        Mr. Lula, the new president, is a leftist but is not a communist. And independent security experts said there was no evidence of irregularities in the 2022 vote. A separate analysis by Brazil’s military found just one potential vulnerability in Brazil’s fully digital voting system, which would require the coordination of multiple election officials to exploit, a scenario that security experts said was extremely unlikely.        新任总统卢拉的确是一名左翼人士,但不是共产主义者。独立安全专家说,没有证据表明2022年选举存在异常。巴西军方另行发布的一项分析发现,巴西的全数字化投票系统里存在一个潜在的弱点,但要想利用它,需要多名选举官员协调行动,安全专家认为出现这种情况的可能性微乎其微。
        Mr. Lula, who had campaigned on unifying the divided nation, is now faced with investigating and prosecuting many of his political opponents’ supporters just a week into his presidency. The authorities said that roughly 1,500 protesters had been detained by Monday evening, and that they would be held until at least the investigation was finished.        卢拉在竞选中呼吁让一个分裂的国家团结起来,如今上任仅一周,他就需要调查和检控众多他的政敌的支持者。当局称周一晚间拘捕了约1500名抗议者,这些人会被一直扣押直到调查结束。
        On Monday, Mr. Lula spoke with President Biden, who conveyed “the unwavering support of the United States for Brazil’s democracy and for the free will of the Brazilian people ,” White House officials said. Mr. Biden invited Mr. Lula to the White House in early February. (It took more than 18 months for him to meet with Mr. Bolsonaro at a summit in Los Angeles.)        周一,卢拉与拜登总统通话,后者表达了“美国对巴西民主和巴西人民的自由意志的坚决支持”,白宫官员说。拜登邀请卢拉于二月初访问白宫。(他在超过18个月后才与博尔索纳罗在洛杉矶会晤。)
        In a televised speech on Monday night, Mr. Lula said that his government would prosecute anyone who had attacked Brazil’s democracy on Sunday. “What they want is a coup, and they won’t have one,” he said. “They have to learn that democracy is the most complicated thing we do.”        周晚上的一场电视转播的演说中,卢拉表示他的政府会对那些在周日攻击巴西民主的人发起检控。“他们想要的是一场政变,他们休想得逞,”他说。“他们必须明白,民主是我们在做的最为复杂的一件事。”
        He and many of Brazil’s top government officials then walked together from the presidential offices to the Supreme Court, crossing the same plaza that a day before was thronged with mobs calling for the overthrow of his government.        他和许多巴西政府高官随后一起从总统办公室步行前往最高法院,穿过了一天前发生抗议的广场,许多暴徒正是在那里呼吁推翻他的政府。
                
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