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韩国首次将寻求核武器列为政策选项
In a First, South Korea Declares Nuclear Weapons a Policy Option

来源:纽约时报    2023-01-13 04:42



        SEOUL — President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea said for the first time on Wednesday that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, South Korea would consider building nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula.        首尔——周三,韩国总统尹锡悦首次表示,如果朝鲜加大核威胁,韩国将考虑建造自己的核武器,或者要求美国在朝鲜半岛重新部署核武器。
        Speaking during a joint policy briefing by his defense and foreign ministries on Wednesday, Mr. Yoon was quick to add that building nuclear weapons was not yet an official policy. He stressed that South Korea would for now deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat by strengthening its alliance with the United States.        在周三由国防部和外交部举行的联合政策简报会上,尹锡悦紧接着补充说,制造核武器尚未成为官方政策。他强调,韩国目前将通过加强与美国的联盟来应对朝鲜的核威胁。
        Such a policy includes finding ways to increase the reliability of Washington’s commitment to protect its ally with all of its defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons.        这样的政策包括想方设法提高华盛顿承诺的可靠性。华盛顿承诺以包括核武器在内的所有防御能力来保护盟友。
        Mr. Yoon’s comments marked the first time since the United States withdrew all of its nuclear weapons from the South in 1991 that a South Korean president officially mentioned arming the country with nuclear weapons. Washington removed its nuclear weapons from South Korea as part of its global nuclear arms reduction efforts.        尹锡悦的言论标志着自美国1991年从韩国撤出所有核武器以来,韩国总统首次正式提到用核武器武装国家。华盛顿从韩国撤出核武器是其全球核武器削减努力的一部分。
        “It’s possible that the problem gets worse and our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or build them on our own,” said Mr. Yoon, according to a transcript of his comments released by his office. “If that’s the case, we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities.”        “问题有可能变得更糟,我们的国家会引进或自行制造战术核武器,”根据尹锡悦办公室发布的记录,他说。“如果是这样的话,鉴于我们的科技能力,我们可以很快拥有自己的核武器。”
        South Korea is a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, which bans the country from seeking nuclear weapons. It also signed a joint declaration with North Korea in 1991 in which both Koreas agreed not to “test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons.”        韩国是《不扩散核武器条约》(Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,下称NPT)的签署国,该条约禁止该国寻求拥有核武器。韩国还在1991年与朝鲜签署了一项联合声明,同意不“试验、制造、生产、接收、拥有、储存、部署或使用核武器”。
        But North Korea has reneged on the agreement by conducting six nuclear tests since 2006. Years of negotiations have failed to remove a single nuclear warhead in the North.​ (American and South Korean officials say that North Korea could conduct another nuclear test, its seventh, at any moment.​)​​        但朝鲜违背了协议,自2006年以来进行了六次核试验。尽管经过了多年的谈判,但朝鲜没有移除任何核弹头。(美国和韩国官员表示,朝鲜可能会在任何时候再次进行核试验,即该国的第七次核试验。)
        As North Korea vowed to expand its nuclear arsenal and threatened to use it against the South in recent months, voices have grown in South Korea — among analysts and within Mr. Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party — calling for Seoul to reconsider a nuclear option.        最近几个月,随着朝鲜发誓要扩大其核武库并威胁要对韩国使用,韩国分析人士和尹锡悦的保守执政党人民力量党内人士越来越多地呼吁首尔重新考虑核选项。
        Mr. Yoon’s comments this week were likely to fuel such discussions. ​Opinion surveys in recent years have shown that a majority of South Koreans supported the United States redeploying nuclear weapons to the South or the country’s building an arsenal of its own.        尹锡悦本周的言论可能会引发这样的讨论。近年来的民意调查显示,大多数韩国人支持美国将核武器重新部署到韩国,或建立韩国自己的核武库。
        Policymakers in Seoul have disavowed the option​ for decades​, arguing that the so-called nuclear-umbrella protection ​from the United States ​would keep the country safe from North Korea​.        几十年来,首尔的政策制定者一直否定这个选项,理由是来自美国的所谓核保护伞能保护该国免受朝鲜的侵犯。
        “President Yoon’s comment could turn out to be a watershed moment in the history of South Korea’s national security,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded research think tank in Seoul.​ ​”It could shift its paradigm in how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.”        “尹总统的言论可能成为韩国国家安全史上的一个分水岭时刻,”韩国统一研究院前院长全相勋(音)说,该研究院是首尔政府资助的研究智库。“可能会改变应对朝鲜核威胁的观念。”
        Calls for nuclear weapons have bubbled up in South Korea over the decades, but they have never ​gained traction beyond the occasional analysts and right-wing politicians.        几十年来,韩国不断涌现呼吁核武器的声音,但除了偶尔分析人士和右翼政客讨论之外,这些呼吁从未得到关注。
        Under its former military dictator Park Chung-hee​, South Korea embarked on a covert nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, when the United States began reducing its military presence in the South, making its people feel vulnerable to North Korean attacks. Washington forced him to abandon the program, promising to keep the ​ally under its nuclear umbrella.        1970年代韩国在前军事独裁者朴正熙治下开始了一项秘密的核武器计划,当时美国开始减少在韩国的军事影响力,使韩国人民担心遭到朝鲜的攻击。华盛顿迫使朴正熙放弃该计划,并承诺将这个盟友置于其核保护伞之下。
        Washington still keeps 28,500 American troops in South Korea as the symbol of the alliance. But in recent months, North Korea has continued testing missiles, some of which were designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the South. Many South Koreans have questioned whether the United States would stop North Korea from attacking their country, especially at the risk of leaving American cities and military bases in the Asia-Pacific region more vulnerable to a nuclear attack. Washington’s repeated promise to protect its ally — with its own nuclear weapons, if necessary — has not dissipated such fear.        华盛顿仍然在韩国保留着2.85万美军作为同盟的象征。但最近几个月,朝鲜继续测试导弹,其中一些意在向韩国发射核弹头。许多韩国人质疑美国是否会阻止朝鲜攻击他们的国家,尤其是这样做会使美国城市和美国在亚太地区的军事基地面临更高的核攻击风险。华盛顿一再承诺保护其盟友,甚至在必要时使用自己的核武器,但这些承诺并没有消除这种恐惧。
        In its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, a document that outlines Washington’s nuclear policy for the next five to 10 years, the Pentagon​ itself noted the “deterrence dilemmas” ​that the North posed to the United States. “A crisis or conflict on the Korean Peninsula could involve a number of nuclear-armed actors, raising the risk of broader conflict,” it said.        在概述华盛顿未来五到十年核政策的文件《2022年核态势评估报告》中,五角大楼本身也指出了朝鲜给美国带来的“威慑困境”。报告写道:“朝鲜半岛的危机或冲突可能涉及许多拥有核武器的行为者,从而增加发生更广泛冲突的风险。”
        “If South Korea ​possesses ​nuclear weapons, the United States will not need to ask whether it should use its ​own ​nuclear weapons to defend its ally​,​ and the alliance will never be put to a test,” said Cheong Seong-chang,​ a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. “If South Korea owns nuclear weapons, the U.S. will actually become safer.”        “如果韩国拥有核武器,美国就不需要考虑是否应该使用自己的核武器来保卫盟友,联盟也永远不会受到考验,”韩国世宗研究所高级分析师郑相昌(音)说。“如果韩国拥有核武器,美国实际上会变得更安全。”
        By declaring an intention to arm itself with nuclear weapons, South Korea​ could force North Korea to rethink its own nuclear weapons program and​ possibly prompt China​ to put pressure on Pyongyang to roll back its program, Mr. Cheong said. China has long feared a regional nuclear arms race in East Asia.        郑相昌说,韩国通过宣布打算用核武器武装自己,可能会迫使朝鲜重新考虑自己的核武器计划,并可能促使中国向平壤施压,要求其撤回其计划。长期以来,中国一直担心东亚会出现区域性核军备竞赛。
        South Korea would need to quit the NPT to build its own arsenal. Analysts said that quitting the NPT would be too risky for the South​ because it could trigger international sanctions​. ​        韩国需要退出NPT才能建立自己的核武库。分析人士表示,退出NPT对韩国来说风险太大,因为这样做可能引发国际制裁。
        Some lawmakers affiliated with Mr. Yoon’s party and analysts like Mr. Cheon want the United States to reintroduce American nuclear weapons​ to the South and forge a nuclear-sharing agreement with Seoul, similar to the one in which NATO aircraft would be allowed to carry American nuclear weapons in wartime.        一些隶属于尹锡悦政党的议员和郑相昌等分析人士希望重新引入美国的核武器,并达成一项韩美核共享协议,类似于允许北约飞机在战时搭载美国核武器的协议。
        The American Embassy had no immediate comment on Mr. Yoon’s statement. Washington’s official policy ​is to make the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons, fearing that if Seoul were to build nuclear weapons, it could trigger a regional arms race and eliminate any hope of ridding North ​Korea ​of its nuclear weapons.        美国大使馆没有立即对尹锡悦的声明发表评论。华盛顿的官方政策是使朝鲜半岛无核,担心如果首尔制造核武器,可能会引发地区军备竞赛,从而使解除朝鲜核武器的希望破灭。
        Mr. Yoon himself reiterated on Thursday that his country remained committed to the NPT​, at least for now​.​ He said on Wednesday — and his Defense Ministry reiterated on Thursday — that the more “realistic means” of countering the North Korean threat would be through joint deterrence with the United States.        尹锡悦本人在周四重申,他的国家仍然致力于遵守《不扩散核武器条约》,至少目前如此。他在周三表示——他的国防部也在周四重申——与美国的联合威慑应是对朝鲜威胁的更“现实的手段”。
        His government said the allies will ​introduce tabletop exercises from next month to test their combined capabilities to deal with a North Korean nuclear attack​ and to help reassure Washington’s commitment to its ally. Mr. Yoon also said his military will boost its ​own “massive punishment and retaliation” program, arming itself with more powerful missiles and other conventional weapons to threaten the North’s leadership.        他的政府表示,盟国将从下个月开始进行战棋推演,以测试他们应对朝鲜核攻击的综合能力,并帮助重申华盛顿对其盟友的承诺。尹锡悦还表示,他的军队将加强其“大规模惩罚和报复”计划,用更强大的导弹和其他常规武器武装自己,以威胁朝鲜的领导层。
        Tensions have been on the rise in Korea in recent weeks, as Mr. Yoon’s government responded to the North’s provocations with its own escalatory steps, like dispatching fighter jets in response to drones from the North.        最近几周,朝鲜半岛的紧张局势一直在加剧,尹锡悦的政府以自己的升级举动回应朝鲜的挑衅,比如派出战斗机对付朝鲜的无人机。
        “We must squash the North’s desire to provoke,” he said on Wednesday.        “我们必须压制朝鲜的挑衅欲望,”他周三表示。
                
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