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| North Korean state media has not revealed much about the cherub-faced young girl who has made several appearances with Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader, in recent weeks. |
| 一个天真无邪娃娃脸的女孩在最近几周多次与朝鲜领导人金正恩一起露面，该国官媒没有透露太多关于她的信息。 |
| On New Year’s Day, state media carried undated photos of her and Mr. Kim visiting a nuclear missile facility. Her age and name have not yet been reported; she has simply been referred to as Mr. Kim’s “most beloved daughter.” |
| 元旦那天，朝鲜官媒刊登了一张她和金正恩一起视察一处核弹设施、未注明拍摄日期的照片。她的年龄和名字尚未见诸报道；她只是被称为金正恩“最心爱的女儿”。 |
| That was enough to raise questions about the young girl’s place in the Kim family dynasty and whether she was being groomed as Mr. Kim’s successor. |
| 这足以让人猜测这名年幼的女孩在金氏王朝的地位，以及她是否正在被培养为金正恩的接班人。 |
| North Korea is not a monarchy. Its top leader is supposedly elected through a ruling Workers’ Party congress. In reality, though, the Kims have run the country like a private family enterprise since its founding at the end of World War II. |
| 朝鲜不是君主制国家。按理说，朝鲜最高领导人是通过执政的劳动党代表大会选举产生的。但实际上，在第二次世界大战结束后建国以来，金氏家族自朝鲜一直像运作家族私人企业一样管理着这个国家。 |
| Both Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father ruled until they died. Mr. Kim, who turns 39 next Monday, has already been in power for 11 years and is unlikely to go anywhere any time soon. |
| 金正恩的祖父和父亲都是一直统治朝鲜，直至去世。下周一将满39周岁的金正恩已执政11年，不太可能在短期内下台。 |
| Yet the question of who would inherit the regime — and its fast-growing nuclear arsenal — has remained the subject of endless fascination among officials and analysts, especially when doubts about Mr. Kim’s health have emerged. |
| 然而，谁将继承这个政权及其快速增长的核武库一直是官员们和分析人士不断关注的话题，尤其是当人们对金正恩的健康状况存在疑问时。 |
| The speculation of North Korea’s succession plans unfolded as Seoul and Washington said this week that they were discussing how to better cope with North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, employing the full range of American defense capabilities. |
| 首尔和华盛顿本周表示，两国正在讨论如何更好地应对朝鲜日益增长的核威胁，以及如何更好地部署美国的全方位防御能力的问题。对朝鲜继任计划的猜测也在是这个时候逐渐展开的。 |
| The recent guessing game about succession first began after North Korea launched its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 18 in one of the country’s most significant weapons tests. |
| 关于接班人的最近一轮猜谜游戏始于去年11月18日，朝鲜在当天进行了一次该国最重要的武器试验，发射了火星-17洲际弹道导弹。 |
| The following day, North Korean state media reported that Mr. Kim watched the launch with his daughter, and released photos of the girl in a white padded jacket, holding Mr. Kim’s hand as they walked around the testing site. |
| 在次日的报道中，朝鲜官方媒体称金正恩和女儿一起观看了发射，并发布了一张照片。照片中，一个身穿白棉衣的女孩牵着金正恩的手走在试验场上。 |
| Days later, the National Intelligence Agency of South Korea identified the young girl as Kim Ju-ae, the baby that retired N.B.A. star Dennis Rodman said he was allowed to hold when he met Mr. Kim in Pyongyang in 2013. |
| 几天后，韩国国家情报局确认，这名少女名叫金朱爱。NBA退役明星丹尼斯·罗德曼说，2013年，他在平壤见金正恩时，曾被允许抱过还是婴儿的她。 |
| Ju-ae’s public appearance marked the first time Pyongyang confirmed that Mr. Kim had a child. Until her debut in state media, ordinary North Koreans had never seen any of Mr. Kim’s children. |
| 金朱爱的公开露面标志着平壤首次证实了金正恩有孩子。在她首次在官媒上出现之前，朝鲜普通民众从未看到过金正恩的任何子女。 |
| South Korean intelligence officials have said that Mr. Kim has three children, with the eldest likely being a son. Ju-ae is his second child, believed to be 9 or 10, they said. |
| 韩国情报官员说，金正恩有三个孩子，最大的可能是个儿子。他们说，金朱爱是他的第二个孩子，据信现年九岁或10岁。 |
| Outside analysts quickly noted that she was described as “beloved” and had been chosen to represent the next generation of the Kim family. They were also intrigued by Mr. Kim’s decision to introduce her at a missile test site, highlighting the link between the Kim family and the North’s weapons program. |
| 外部分析人士很快注意到，她被称为“心爱的”，并已被挑选为金氏家族下一代的代表。金正恩在导弹发射试验场将她介绍给公众的决定也激起了分析人士的兴趣，这个做法凸显了金氏家族与朝鲜武器计划的联系。 |
| The speculation around succession deepened when Ju-ae joined her father again, this time in late November for a group photo with missile engineers. She was dressed more formally for the occasion, with a long black coat and fur collar, her hand nestled on her father’s shoulder as he sat in front of the crowd of cheering engineers. Top generals bowed before her. |
| 金朱爱再次与父亲同框出现后，有关接班人的猜测进一步加深。这次是在去年11月下旬与导弹工程师的合影里。她在这个场合的穿戴更正式，穿了一件毛领的黑色长外套，金正恩坐在一群欢呼的工程师前面，她把手放在父亲的肩膀上。高级将领们在她面前鞠躬。 |
| “The photos are likely part of a carefully worked out program to show to North Koreans that Kim Ju-ae is going to become the successor,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a longtime researcher of the Kim family at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. |
| “这些照片很可能是一个精心安排的计划的一部分，目的是向朝鲜人表明金朱爱将成为接班人，”曾在韩国世宗研究所长期研究金氏家族的郑成昌（音）说。 |
| If Mr. Kim chose a daughter over a son as his heir apparent, it would be a highly unusual move in deeply patriarchal North Korea. But Mr. Kim himself was an unlikely choice to become the leader of the country. |
| 如果金正恩选择女儿而不是儿子作为继任者的话，对父权制度根深蒂固的朝鲜来说，这将是一个极不寻常的决定。但金正恩本人成为国家领导人也曾是没有多大可能的事情。 |
| As the youngest of three sons, Mr. Kim leapfrogged over his brothers when his father, Kim Jong-il, recognized his domineering attitude and tapped him as successor, according to analysts. |
| 金正恩是三个儿子中最小的一个。据分析人士说，父亲金正日赞赏老三盛气凌人的态度，越过两个哥哥将他定为继任者。 |
| And although the North’s leadership is predominantly male, the regime under Mr. Kim includes a few prominent women, such as the outspoken anchorwoman Ri Chun-hee, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and Mr. Kim’s sister and spokeswoman Kim Yo-jong, who has issued a stream of belligerent threats against South Korea in recent months. |
| 尽管朝鲜领导人以男性为主，但金正恩领导的政权中也有几位著名的女性，比如直言风格的主播李春姬、外务相崔善姬和金正恩的妹妹兼发言人金与正， 她在最近几个月对韩国发出了一连串好战威胁。 |
| By revealing a possible successor early on, Mr. Kim may be trying to avoid the mistakes his father made, some analysts said. |
| 一些分析人士说，金正恩也许是想通过较早地公开一名可能的继任者来避免父亲犯下的错误。 |
| Kim Jong-il anointed Mr. Kim as heir when the son was still a child, but he kept it secret outside of his inner circle. Many analysts had speculated that Kim Jong-nam — the senior Kim’s eldest son and Mr. Kim’s half brother — would become his successor. Others said the father would pick Kim Jong-chol, Mr. Kim’s elder brother. Some even said the hereditary succession in North Korea would end with Kim Jong-il’s death. |
| 虽然金正日在金正恩孩童时期就将其定为接班人，但他一直对核心圈子之外的人士保守了这个秘密。许多分析人士曾推测，金正日的长子、金正恩的同父异母哥哥金正男将成为金正日的接班人。也有人说，金正日会选择金正恩的哥哥金正哲。有人甚至说，朝鲜的世袭继承将随着金正日的去世结束。 |
| Only after the father had a stroke in 2008 did North Korea start hinting that Mr. Kim was the chosen successor. Ordinary North Koreans had never seen him until he appeared in state media in 2010. |
| 直到金正日2008年中风后，朝鲜才开始暗示金正恩是选定的继任者。2010年在官方媒体上出现之前，普通朝鲜人一直不知道他长什么样。 |
| When his father died in 2011, there was much doubt, at home and abroad, about Mr. Kim’s ability to lead. It took years before he established his unchallenged authority through a series of bloody purges, including the execution of his own uncle and the assassination of his half brother. |
| 金正日于2011年去世后，朝鲜国内外都曾对金正恩的领导能力有过很多怀疑。他花了数年时间，通过一系列血腥清洗，包括处决了自己的姑父、暗杀同父异母的哥哥，才建立了自己无人挑战的权威。 |
| After he took power, Mr. Kim made his government and his family less secretive. His father was known for living with beautiful women, including Mr. Kim’s mother, but never introduced them to the public. One of the first things Mr. Kim did as leader was to make a public appearance with his wife, Ri Sol-ju. |
| 金正恩上台后让他的政府和家庭不再显得那么神秘。他的父亲金正日以有多名漂亮女性伴侣（其中就包括金正恩的母亲）闻名，但从不向公众公开介绍她们。金正恩当领导人后最早做的几件事之一是和妻子李雪主一起在公开场合露面。 |
| By revealing a successor early, Mr. Kim may be “giving the successor enough time to prepare,” Mr. Cheong said. “He wants his successor to avoid the hurried, fast-track succession at home and the skepticism from the outside that he had to go through.” |
| 通过较早公布继任者，金正恩也许是“让继任者有足够的时间做准备”，郑成昌说。“他想让自己的继任者在国内避免匆忙、快速的继任，并避免他曾不得不面对的来自外部的怀疑。” |
| Most analysts agreed that by taking one of his children to events related to his arsenal, Mr. Kim was reminding the North’s people, especially its youth, that his family’s dynastic rule and nuclear weapons development would continue into the next generation. |
| 大多数分析人士认为，金正恩带自己的孩子之一参加与他的军火库有关的活动，是在提醒朝鲜人民，尤其是年轻人，金氏家族的王朝统治和核武器研发将延续到下一代。 |
| But not everyone saw Ju-ae’s presence as a sign that she had been elevated in the family. “It’s premature to conclude that she is going to become the successor, especially if her father has a son,” said Ahn Chan-il, a defector from North Korea who runs a research institute in Seoul. |
| 但并不是每个人都把金朱爱出现这些活动中视为她在家族中地位上升的标志。“现在就断定她将成为接班人还为时过早，尤其是她父亲有一个儿子的话，”在首尔运行一家研究机构的朝鲜脱北者安灿一（音）说。 |
| Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat who fled to South Korea in 2016 and is now a lawmaker in Seoul, told reporters that the world would know that Mr. Kim had chosen a successor only when the North started idolizing a particular child as a godlike figure, as they did with Mr. Kim once his succession was made formal. |
| 2016年逃往韩国的朝鲜前外交官太永浩现在是首尔的一名议员，他对记者说，只是当朝鲜开始将某个孩子作为神圣人物对待时，世界才会知道金正恩选择了谁为接班人，就像金正恩本人在正式成为继任者后官媒对他所做的那样。 |
| Mr. Kim has been promoting and firing top officials like pieces on a chessboard, frequently reshuffling his government. Last week, Pak Jong-chon, a top military official, was replaced. Those maneuverings have kept observers guessing, but such speculation is forbidden in the North’s tightly censored news media. |
| 金正恩经常对他的政府进行改组，像摆弄棋盘上的棋子那样提拔和解雇高级官员。军方高级官员朴正天已在上周被撤职。这些做法让观察人士捉磨不透，而朝鲜严格审查的新闻媒体禁止对人员任命进行猜测。 |
| “North Koreans take hereditary rule by the Kim family for granted because they have never experienced free election,” Mr. Ahn said. “They are less interested in who rules them but more interested in who will make their life better than Kim Jong-un has.” |
| “朝鲜人认为金氏家族的世袭统治理所当然，因为他们从未经历过自由选举，”安灿一说。“他们对谁统治他们不太感兴趣，但对谁能让他们的生活比金正恩时代更好感兴趣。” |
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