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日本将国防预算翻倍,抵御中国军事野心
Japan Moves to Double Military Spending, With a Wary Eye on China

来源:纽约时报    2022-12-19 10:58



        Japan on Friday announced a new national security strategy that will double the amount earmarked for the country’s military defense, breaking with decades-long precedent on spending restraints as it seeks to strengthen its military capabilities to counter China’s rising power.        日本上周五宣布了一项新的国家安全战略,把用于国防的预算增加了一倍,打破了数十年来限制这项开支的先例。这是日本为抵御中国日益增长的实力、寻求加强自身军事能力迈出的一步。
        The new plan, approved by the cabinet on Friday, reflects the geopolitical shifts that have swept the region since the previous version was released nearly a decade ago. In 2013, the document described China and Russia as strategic partners. Now, it deems Beijing’s rise as the “greatest strategic challenge” to international order and toughens its assessment of a more belligerent Russia.        日本国家安全战略的上个版本是将近十年前公布的,内阁上周五批准的新版本反映了这期间席卷东亚地区的地缘政治变化。在其2013年版的国家安全战略中,日本曾把中国和俄罗斯描述为战略伙伴。现在,日本认为中国的崛起是对国际秩序“最大战略挑战”,对更好战的俄罗斯的看法也更加强硬。
        Speaking to reporters at a press briefing after the cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan had reached a “turning point” in its history that necessitated the buildup.        岸田文雄首相在内阁会议后召开的新闻发布会上对记者说,日本已经到了一个历史性的“转折点”,有必要加强军事建设。
        “In Japan’s neighboring countries and regions, there is more obvious shift toward attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by might,” he said, noting that Japan would take a wide range of measures, from military to diplomatic, to respond to the change.        “日本周边的国家和地区有一个企图单方面以武力改变现状的明显变化,”岸田文雄说。他指出,日本将采取从军事到外交的广泛措施来应对这种变化。
        The new strategy represents the latest step in Japan’s yearslong path toward building a more muscular military and reducing its dependence on U.S. forces. After decades of resistance to the idea, recent polls show that over half of the country now supports at least some military buildup, amid China’s growing aggression toward Taiwan and Russia’s war on Ukraine.        新战略代表着日本在建设更强大的军队、减少对美国军事依赖的道路上迈出的最新一步。几十年来,日本民意曾一直反对加强军力,但最近的民意调查显示,中国对台湾日益增长的武力威胁以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的战争已使日本国内超过一半的人现在支持至少一些加强军事建设的做法。
        That has allowed Mr. Kishida to push forward defense measures that would have been viewed as extreme even recently in officially pacifist Japan, including the acquisition of missiles that could be used to target bases in enemy territory in response to an attack.        这让岸田文雄能够推进一些防御措施,包括采购可用于针对敌对国家境内基地的导弹,以便对导弹袭击做出响应,在官方奉行和平主义的日本,甚至在不久前,这样的做法还会被视为极端。
        “One year ago, I couldn’t imagine that the Japanese people would support this kind of security initiative,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a professor of international relations at Meikai University and a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.        “一年前,我无法想象日本民众会支持这种国家安全措施,”明海大学国际关系教授、日本国际事务研究所高级研究员小谷哲男说。
        When Japan released its first national security strategy nine years ago, it identified North Korea and its nuclear program as the country’s greatest security concern. While the North’s flurry of missile tests this year and its expanding nuclear arsenal show that it has not receded as a threat, the security strategy now labels China the biggest challenge.        日本九年前发布的第一份国家安全战略把朝鲜及其核计划认定为日本面临的最大安全问题。虽然朝鲜今年的一连串导弹试验以及不断扩大的核武库表明其威胁并未消退,但日本的安全战略现已将中国列为最大的挑战。
        The 2013 document presaged that shift. It was prepared as part of a push by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister at the time, to budge the country from its postwar pacifism. He called such a change inevitable as China increased military spending and aggressively pursued territorial claims in the South China Sea and around the Senkaku Islands, which Japan administers.        2013年版的文件已经预示了这个变化。它是当时的首相安倍晋三为推动日本摆脱战后和平主义努力的一部分。他曾表示,摆脱战后和平主义不可避免,因为中国在增加军费开支,并在南海和日本管理的尖阁诸岛附近积极推行领土要求。
        In 2015, when Mr. Abe rammed through Parliament legislation that expanded the role of Japan’s military — euphemistically known as the Self-Defense Forces — the move was widely criticized by a public that cherished Japan’s status as the only nation to have renounced war.        2015年,安倍晋三用强硬手法让国会通过了一项立法,扩大了被委婉地称为“自卫队”的日本军队的作用,此举曾遭到日本公众的广泛批评,日本人珍惜本国作为世界上唯一一个正式放弃战争的国家的地位。
        For decades, efforts to make Japan a so-called normal nation free of pacifist constraints were largely the preoccupation of the country’s powerful right wing, which insisted that the Constitution’s limits on Japanese military power prevented it from defending itself and playing its proper role in world affairs.        几十年来,让日本成为一个不受和平主义约束的所谓正常国家主要是该国强大的右翼势力的心愿,他们坚持认为,宪法对日本军事力量的限制阻碍了日本的自卫,让日本不能在世界上发挥应有的作用。
        But this month, when Mr. Kishida said he planned to double military spending, the ensuing debate largely focused not on whether the investment should be approved, but on how to pay for it.        但当岸田文雄本月表示打算将军费开支增加一倍时,接下来的辩论主要不是集中在是否应该批准这笔支出,而是集中在支出应当从何而来。
        “People support strengthening the Self-Defense Forces. They support defense spending increases, but they don’t like more taxes,” said Hideki Uemura, a professor of international politics and security at Ryutsu Keizai University.        “人民支持加强自卫队。他们支持增加国防开支,但他们不喜欢增加税收,”流通经济大学国际政治与安全教授植村秀树说。
        As Japan moves to abandon its longstanding custom of keeping military spending around 1 percent of its economic output, the changing stance largely tracks its growing concerns about being dragged into a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan.        日本开始放弃将军费开支保持在其经济产出1%左右的长期惯例,这个立场的改变在很大程度上反映了日本人日益担心被拖入美国与中国因台湾问题而发生的冲突。
        In some ways, Japan is still trying to walk a tightrope with China, its largest export market, as it continues to seek improved ties, including last month with the first face-to-face meeting between the countries’ two leaders in three years.        在某些方面,日本仍试图在与中国的关系上找到平衡,中国是日本最大的出口市场。日本仍在继续寻求改善与中国的关系,比如两国领导人上个月举行了三年来的首次面对面会晤。
        But once-vague anxieties about potential Chinese military threats to Japan were given shape in August when Beijing responded to a visit to Taiwan by Speaker Nancy Pelosi with military exercises that included lobbing missiles into waters near Japanese islands.        但今年8月,美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问台湾后,中国政府用军演做出回应,包括向日本的岛屿附近海域发射了导弹,这让日本人对中国潜在军事威胁的模糊担忧变得更加清晰。
        Self-ruled Taiwan, which China has long claimed as its own, lies just under 70 miles off the coast of one of Japan’s southwestern islands and is a critical supplier of the semiconductors that go into its primary exports, such as automobiles. Any future conflict over Taiwan could involve Okinawa, which hosts the bulk of American military forces in Japan.        中国长期以来坚称其对台湾拥有主权。台湾是一个自治的岛屿,距离日本西南部岛屿之一的海岸只有约110公里,是日本主要出口产品(如汽车)所使用半导体的重要供应商。有关台湾的任何未来冲突都可能涉及日本的冲绳岛,美国在日本驻军的大部分都在那里。
        Japan’s spending priorities have also been informed by Ukraine’s experience fighting Russia’s invading forces and galvanizing Western support. Observing that conflict has led Japanese policymakers to more closely examine some of their own military’s weak points, particularly in cyberspace.        日本预算的优先事项也受到乌克兰经验的影响,乌克兰抗击俄罗斯入侵部队的战斗激励了西方的支援行动。对这场冲突的观察引发了日本决策者更认真地审视本国军队的一些弱点,尤其是在网络空间。
        “The chief lesson from Ukraine is that if Japan hopes to enjoy external support, it needs to do more in its own defense,” said Brad Glosserman, an expert on Japanese policy and the deputy director of the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University.        “乌克兰的主要经验是,如果日本想获得外部支持的话,就必须在自身防御上做更多的事情,”多摩大学规则形成战略研究所的副主任、日本政策专家布拉德·格洛瑟曼说。
        The documents released Friday projected that spending will increase by a total of 43 trillion yen, or nearly $315 billion, over the next five years, reaching an annual total of about $80 billion by 2027.        上周五发布的文件计划将用于未来五年的国防开支总额提高43万亿日元(约合3150亿美元),到2027年,年度国防开支达到约800亿美元。
        While the new budget could catapult Japan up the ranks of the world’s top military spenders, it is a fraction of the $801 billion that the United States used for its military last year, or the $293 billion that China spent, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In 2021, the data showed, Japan was the world’s ninth-biggest military spender, behind Saudi Arabia.        虽然日本的新国防预算可能会使该国进入世界上军费开支排名高的国家行列,但与美国和中国相比仍相去甚远,据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据,美国去年的军费为8010亿美元,中国为2930亿美元,日本2021年的军费开支在世界排名第九,位居沙特阿拉伯之后。
        The budget increases will go to a wide variety of programs, such as fortifying public infrastructure like airports, to make sure they can accommodate military planes, or improving the transportation and storage of ammunition and fuel. The spending also includes subsidies for building up the national defense industry to make the country’s military less reliant on American weapons.        日本防务预算的增加将用于各种项目,包括加强机场等公共基础设施,以确保其能让军用飞机使用,或改善弹药和燃料的运输和储存。军费支出还包括为国防工业建设提供补贴,使日本军队减少对美国武器的依赖。
        Many of the investments reflect the concerns over a more aggressive China.        预算中的许多部分反映了日本对一个更具挑衅性的中国的担忧。
        Japan has begun to fortify islands in its southwestern archipelago, in preparation for a possible conflict over Taiwan. The new installations could make it harder for Chinese naval vessels to access the Western Pacific.        日本已开始加强其西南群岛的岛上防御,为可能发生的台湾冲突做准备。新的军事部署可能会让中国海军舰艇进入西太平洋变得更难。
        The country also plans to invest in so-called counter-strike capabilities, which have been promoted as a deterrent against missile attacks from China or North Korea by presenting a credible threat of retaliation. Japan hopes to obtain around 1,000 missiles, starting with U.S.-made Tomahawks before eventually moving to its own weapon systems.        日本还计划投资所谓的抗打击能力,这种表现为可信报复回击的能力,被宣传为针对来自中国或朝鲜的导弹袭击的威慑。日本希望获得约1000枚导弹,从美国制造的战斧导弹开始,最终变成使用自己的武器系统。
        Additionally, Japan will pursue a next-generation fighter jet in collaboration with Italy and Britain. The planes would supplement by the 2030s Japan’s fleet of American-made F-35s.        此外,日本将与意大利和英国合作研发下一代战斗机。到2030年代时,这些飞机将增补日本现有的美制F-35战机。
        The new strategy was met with approval from Washington, which has long pushed Japan to take more responsibility for its own defense. Japan hosts the largest contingent of American troops overseas. Raising military spending to 2 percent of G.D.P. would bring Japan into line with pledges made by the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.        新战略得到了华盛顿的赞成,美国长期以来一直在推动日本为自身防御承担更多责任。美国海外驻军的最大部分在日本。日本将军费开支提高到GDP的2%,将使其与北大西洋公约组织成员国的承诺保持一致。
        The changes represent a “tremendous milestone” for Japan and for its military cooperation with the United States, said Rahm Emanuel, the American ambassador to Japan.        美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔说,这些变化是日本及其与美国军事合作方面的一个“巨大的里程碑”。
        “They’re helping us put a capital D in deterrence,” he said.        “他们正在帮助我们加强威慑,”他说。
                
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