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全球人口达到80亿，低出生率或拖累中国经济
World Population Reaches 8 Billion, U.N. Says

来源：纽约时报    2022-11-16 02:11



        Until 1804, fewer than one billion people roamed our planet. More than a century later, in 1927, we crossed two billion.        直到1804年的时候，地球上的人口还不到10亿。一个多世纪后的1927年就突破了20亿。
        Since then, the world population has shot up in the shape of a hockey stick, boosted by the triumphs of modern medicine and public health.        那以后，在现代医学和公共卫生进步的推动下，世界人口呈直线上升。
        The latest marker was passed on Tuesday, when the United Nations said the world population had reached eight billion, just 11 years after it passed seven billion. (It is an inexact number, since there is no official count, but the international organization said its projections crossed the line on Tuesday.)        周二，联合国宣布世界人口达到80亿，突破了新的里程碑，就在11年前，这一数字才刚刚超过70亿。（因为缺乏官方统计，这一数字并不准确，但联合国表示其预测结果在周二越过了这条线。）
        The growth rate, which is expected to slow globally over the coming decades, has been uneven around the world. Slowing growth rates in populous nations like China and the United States have caused some alarm, threatening to upend their societies. Rising birthrates in poorer nations threaten to strain systems that are already struggling.        在全球范围内，人口增速预计将在未来几十年间放缓，各地增速也并不均衡。在中国和美国这样的人口大国，人口增速放缓已经引起一些人的警觉，这一现象可能颠覆这些国家的社会。较贫穷国家不断上升的出生率可能会给本已捉襟见肘的系统带来更多压力。
        Here are a few of the challenges ahead.        以下是未来的一些挑战。
        Much of the population growth comes from the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.        大部分人口增长都来自最贫困的国家，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲。
        About 70 percent of the growth to eight billion from seven billion happened in low- and lower-middle-income countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, the United Nations said. The trend is expected to become even more pronounced in the years ahead.        联合国表示，在人口从70亿增长到80亿的过程中，约有70%的增长来自低收入和中低收入国家，大多集中在撒哈拉以南非洲。预计这一趋势将在未来几年变得更加明显。
        “When the next billion is added between 2022 and 2037, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90 percent of global growth,” the organization said.        “当人口在2022年至2037年再新增10亿，这两类国家预计将占全球增长的90%以上，”该机构表示。
        The fertility rate has dropped globally; in high-income nations, the number of people under 65 is expected to decline in the coming years, the United Nations said. But the fertility rate has remained stubbornly high in poorer countries, where more women and girls lack access to sexual and reproductive health care, including contraception.        全球生育率已经下滑；联合国表示，在高收入国家，65岁以下人口预计将在未来几年减少。但在生育率一直居高不下的较贫困国家，更多妇女和女孩无法获得性健康和生殖健康保障，包括避孕。
        Meeting the needs — including education, public health, employment, and water and sanitation — created by that growth will require “a significant increase in public expenditures,” the organization said.        联合国表示，要满足人口增长带来的教育、公共卫生、就业、饮水和卫生等需求，需要“大幅增加公共支出”。
        The environmental impact: Our levels of production and consumption are unsustainable.        环境影响：我们的生产和消费水平是不可持续的。
        The growing population has helped fuel consumption at what experts say is an unsustainable pace. It has contributed to environmental challenges, including climate change, deforestation and the loss of biodiversity, the United Nations said.        不断增长的人口加剧了燃料的消耗，专家称这样的速度是不可持续的。联合国表示，这加剧了环境挑战，包括气候变化、森林砍伐和生物多样性的丧失。
        “Slower population growth over many decades could help to mitigate the further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century,” the organization said.        “数十年的人口增长放缓有助于减轻本世纪下半叶环境破坏的进一步累积，”该机构表示。
        Lower-income countries, where the population growth is concentrated, have contributed far less to climate change than the richest nations. But as poorer populations grow, “their energy consumption will need to increase substantially if they are to develop economically,” the organization said.        人口增长集中的低收入国家对气候变化应负的责任远小于最富裕国家。但随着贫困人口的增加，“要发展经济他们就必须大幅增加能源的消耗，”该机构表示。
        Experts are forecasting slower growth ahead.        专家预测未来人口增长将放缓。
        While it took 11 years for the population to grow to eight billion from seven billion, the United Nations said it expected 15 years to pass before we reach nine billion, in 2037, and another 22 to pass before 10 billion, in 2058.        虽然世界人口从70亿增长到80亿花了11年时间，但联合国表示，达到90亿还需15年，也就是在2037年，达到100亿则要到22年后的2058年。
        “A decline in the world’s population is not expected for another half-century, with the exact date depending largely on the future pace of fertility decline in today’s high-fertility countries,” the organization said.        “预计在未来半个世纪，世界人口不会减少，具体节点主要取决于目前高生育率国家未来生育率下滑的速度，”该机构表示。
        China’s births hit a historic low in 2021, a fact that, coupled with its increased life expectancy, could lead to labor shortages and hampered economic growth. The United States has slowed down as well, growing at the slowest rate since the 1930s over the past decade.        中国的出生率在2021年创下新低，加之预期寿命的增加，可能导致劳动力短缺并阻碍经济增长。美国的增长也在放缓，过去十年的增速是自上世纪30年代以来的最低。
        India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, the United Nations said in July.        联合国在7月表示，预计印度将于2023年超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。
                
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