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| Democrats tried to outrun history — and the lead weight of a wounded president who made his final political appearance of the campaign in deep-blue Maryland, in a county he won two years ago by an overwhelming margin. |
| 民主党人试图超越历史，也超越一位声誉受损的总统带来的负面影响——在深蓝的马里兰州，在一个他于两年前以压倒性优势获胜的县，他做了本次竞选前最后一次造势亮相。 |
| They had help from a surprising quarter: Republican voters. A base still in thrall to Donald J. Trump chose candidates in the primaries who threw out plenty of red meat, but on Election Day, many failed to translate their frustrations into victory. |
| 他们得到了一个意外群体的帮助：共和党选民。仍然深受特朗普影响的选民群体在初选中选择了那些抛出大量右翼民粹言论的候选人，但在选举日当天，许多人未能将不满转化为胜利。 |
| So far, the results appear well short of the “red tsunami” of Republican dreams. Republicans may yet win back the House, but hardly in commanding fashion, while the Senate remained too close to call early Wednesday morning. |
| 到目前为止，选举结果与共和党梦想的“红潮”相去甚远。共和党人可能还是会赢回众议院，但很难以压倒性的方式取胜，而参议院的票数在周三凌晨仍难分胜负。 |
| Across the East Coast, in Virginia’s northern suburbs and mixed areas of Rhode Island and New Hampshire, embattled Democrats managed to hang on. They even knocked off a few Republicans here and there. In many tight races, abortion and Mr. Trump’s looming presence may have been the G.O.P.’s undoing. |
| 在整个东海岸，在弗吉尼亚州的北部郊区，以及罗德岛和新罕布什尔州那些红蓝混合的地区，四面受敌的民主党人成功坚持下来。他们甚至在许多地方击退了共和党人。在许多势均力敌的竞选中，堕胎问题和特朗普隐约的影响力可能是共和党未能如愿以偿的原因。 |
| “The Democratic Party post-Trump is a much tougher, fighting party,” said Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, attributing to sheer grit the victories eked out by colleagues like Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. “These are battle-hardened veterans who know exactly why they’re in politics.” |
| “后特朗普时代的民主党是一个更强硬、更具战斗力的政党，”马里兰州民主党众议员杰米·拉斯金说。他将弗吉尼亚州的阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格等同僚的胜利归功于纯粹的勇气。“他们都是久经沙场的老兵，很清楚自己为什么从政。” |
| Tuesday was by no means an unalloyed victory for either side, however. There were signs of Republican gains in working-class communities of color. And some battleground states, like North Carolina, moved further out of Democrats’ reach. Gov. Ron DeSantis, Republican of Florida, even flipped the Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County on his way to a rout of Representative Charlie Crist. |
| 然而，对于双方来说，周二都不会是大获全胜。有迹象表明，共和党在有色人种的工人阶级社区获得了进展。而一些摇摆州，比如北卡罗来纳，已经进一步脱离了民主党人的掌控。佛罗里达州共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯在击败众议员查理·克里斯特的过程中，甚至拿下了民主党的大本营迈阿密-戴德县。 |
| It will be days before the full results are clear, and possibly weeks. Here are the lessons of the 2022 midterms so far: |
| 所有结果出来还需要几天时间，甚至可能需要数周时间。以下是迄今为止2022年中期选举的教训: |
| The Democratic base showed up. |
| 民主党的票仓到场了。 |
| The biggest question hanging over Democrats all year was just who, exactly, would show up to vote for them. In a typical midterm election, like 2010 and 2014, turnout drops by about 20 percentage points from a presidential year. |
| 今年，笼罩在民主党人头上的最大问题是，到底有谁会为他们投票。在典型的中期选举中，投票率会比大选年下降约20个百分点，比如2010年和2014年就是如此。 |
| But turnout smashed all records in 2018, when voters repudiated Mr. Trump and Democrats retook the House. So far, preliminary research by the Democratic data firm Catalist suggests that this year looks much more like 2018 than it does the sleepy affairs that took place under former President Barack Obama. Many analysts now think the United States may have reached a new plateau of permanently high participation, stoked by each party’s fear of the other side. |
| 但2018年的投票率打破了所有记录，当时选民否决了特朗普，民主党重新夺回了众议院。到目前为止，民主党的数据公司Catalist的初步研究表明，今年看起来更像2018年，而不是前总统奥巴马任期内那种波澜不兴的态势。许多分析人士现在认为，由于两党对彼此心存恐惧，美国的高投票率趋势可能已经再创新高。 |
| That might help explain why polling failed to capture the widespread feeling among Democrats, which grew after the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade and the Jan. 6 hearings over the summer, that their core democratic rights were increasingly at risk. |
| 这或许有助于解释为什么民调未能抓住民主党人的普遍感受，即他们的核心民主权利正日益面临风险。这种感觉在最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案的判决以及夏天对1月6日事件的听证会后有所加强。 |
| “I think that pundits sometimes project onto the public a crude materialism, where all people care about is pocketbook issues in the narrowest sense,” Mr. Raskin said. “People understand how precarious and precious a thing constitutional democracy is, and they don’t want to lose it.” |
| “我认为，专家们有时会把一种粗糙的功利主义投射到公众身上，认为人们只会关心钱袋子的问题，”拉斯金说。“但人们明白宪政民主是多么不稳定和珍贵的东西，他们不想失去它。” |
| Abortion put Democrats in the fight. |
| 堕胎问题让民主党人开始战斗。 |
| Throughout much of 2021 and the first half of 2022, Republicans appeared poised for shellacking-level gains in Congress and beyond. Then came the Supreme Court’s bombshell decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning a 50-year precedent that many Americans had taken for granted. |
| 在2021年的大部分时间和2022年上半年，共和党人似乎已准备在国会及其他地方获得压倒性的胜利。然后，最高法院对多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织一案做出了令人震惊的裁决，推翻了许多美国人在长达50年时间里认为理所当然的判例。 |
| Suddenly, Democrats had found an issue to rally their base around. Two months later, when voters in conservative Kansas emphatically rejected a ballot measure to ban abortion, many saw a potential game-changer in the making. Democratic governors like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan positioned themselves as bulwarks of abortion rights, while liberal groups poured hundreds of millions of dollars into ads highlighting the far-right positions many Republicans took to win their primaries. |
| 突然之间，民主党人找到了一个可以凝聚选民基本盘的议题。两个月后，保守的堪萨斯州的选民在公投中捍卫了堕胎权，许多人认为这可能会改变游戏规则。密歇根州的格雷琴·惠特默等民主党州长将自己定位为堕胎权的捍卫者，而自由派团体则在广告上投入数亿美元，强调许多共和党人在赢得初选时采取的极右翼立场。 |
| Some on the left, notably Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, have questioned whether Democrats expended too much energy on abortion. The unintended effect, these critics argued, was to reinforce the impression that Democrats were ignoring the most pressing concern on voters’ minds: inflation. |
| 一些左派人士，尤其是佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯，质疑民主党人是否在堕胎问题上花费了太多精力。这些批评人士认为，此举带来意想不到的效果强化了这样一种印象，即民主党忽视了选民心中最紧迫的担忧：通货膨胀。 |
| Few Democratic strategists agree. “I do think Dobbs transformed this election,” said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster. “There’s pretty good evidence that it shook things up.” |
| 几乎没有民主党战略家同意这种观点。“我确实认为多布斯改变了这场选举，”民主党民调专家安娜·格林伯格说。“有相当充分的证据表明，它颠覆了一切。” |
| Trump saddled Republicans with weak candidates. |
| 特朗普让实力较弱的候选人成为共和党人的包袱。 |
| Often, Democrats got the opponents they desired. And the Republican Party leadership was just as often confounded and frustrated by the choices its own voters made. |
| 民主党人许多次得到了他们想要的对手。而共和党领导层也常常为自己选民的选择感到困惑和烦恼。 |
| G.O.P. leaders aggressively courted centrist governors like Doug Ducey of Arizona, Larry Hogan of Maryland and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire to run for Senate — to little avail. Mr. Trump played kingmaker from Mar-a-Lago, demanding that candidates pay fealty to his lies about the 2020 election being stolen. Republican primary voters sided overwhelmingly with Mr. Trump, leading Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, to fret about the “quality” of his party’s nominees. |
| 共和党领导人积极拉拢中间派州长，如亚利桑那州的道格·杜西、马里兰州的拉里·霍根和新罕布什尔州的克里斯·苏努努，让他们竞选参议员，但收效甚微。特朗普在马阿拉歌庄园扮演起了操盘者的角色，要求候选人效忠他关于2020年大选遭到窃取这一谎言。共和党初选选民压倒性地站在了特朗普一边，导致参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔对本党提名人的“质量”感到担忧。 |
| In some races, Democrats even tried steering Republican voters away from more moderate candidates and lifted Trump-aligned conservatives who denied the legitimacy of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s 2020 win. Once these nominees were cemented, Democrats bombarded voters with messages that portrayed Republicans as too extreme on issues like abortion rights or as opponents of democracy itself. |
| 在一些竞选中，民主党人甚至试图引导共和党选民远离更温和的候选人，支持与特朗普阵营结盟、否认拜登2020年获胜合法性的保守派。这些提名一经确定，民主党人就向选民发出大量信息，称共和党人在堕胎权等问题上过于极端，或者根本就是民主的反对者。 |
| The Democrats’ scorched-earth approach worked in many cases. Josh Shapiro, the attorney general of Pennsylvania, ran ads bolstering State Senator Doug Mastriano in the Republican primary, then steamrollered him in the election on Tuesday. |
| 民主党的焦土策略在很多情况下都奏效了。宾夕法尼亚州总检察长乔希·夏皮罗在共和党初选中打广告支持州参议员道格·马斯特里亚诺，然后在周二的选举中击败了他。 |
| Don Bolduc, a Republican challenger who likewise played up Trump’s stolen-election lies, lost a Senate race in New Hampshire that Republicans in Washington once thought winnable. Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin, wryly assessing his victory over Tim Michels, a flame-throwing Republican who allied himself with Mr. Trump, remarked that “boring wins.” |
| 共和党挑战者唐·博尔杜克同样大肆宣扬特朗普的胜利被偷走这一谎言，他在新罕布什尔州的参议员竞选中落败，而华盛顿的共和党人一度认为他能赢。威斯康星州州长托尼·埃弗斯以挖苦的口吻评价自己战胜了与特朗普结盟的共和党人蒂姆·米歇尔斯，说这是“平淡的胜利”。 |
| Inflation dominated, as Democrats grasped for a response. |
| 通货膨胀占据主要议题，民主党人急需给出一个回应。 |
| Again and again, voters told pollsters that soaring prices for gasoline, groceries and housing were their No. 1 concern by far. And Democrats grasped for a clear, consistent response to Republican attacks. |
| 选民一次又一次地告诉民意调查机构，汽油、食品杂货和住房价格的飙升是他们目前的最大担忧。民主党人急需明确、一致的回应来应对共和党的攻击。 |
| The White House first tried denial: Administration officials argued that inflation was a “transitory” phenomenon, a word that would come to haunt many a Democrat months later. Then blame: When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices rocketing upward, Mr. Biden and other Democrats tried to brand inflation as “Putin’s price hike.” |
| 白宫先是试图否认：政府官员认为通货膨胀是一种“暂时的“现象——几个月后，许多民主党人将会对这个词心有余悸。然后是指责：当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致油价飙升时，拜登和其他民主党人试图将通货膨胀称为“普京涨价”。 |
| Acceptance proved harder. Some Democrats were more adept than others at feeling voters’ pain; in February, a group of vulnerable senators, for instance, urged Mr. Biden to freeze the federal gas tax. But, on the whole, the public held Democrats responsible for their pinched wallets, regardless of what the party said or did. |
| 事实证明，让人接受这种说法要困难得多。一些民主党人比其他人更容易感受选民的痛苦；例如，2月，一群选情不妙的参议员敦促拜登冻结联邦汽油税。但总的来说，公众认为民主党人要为他们紧缩的钱包负责，无论该党说什么或做了什么。 |
| Even the Inflation Reduction Act, the product of 18 months of messy talks on Capitol Hill, landed with a whisper. Relatively few Americans were aware of provisions to cap the price of insulin and allow Medicare to negotiate the price of prescription drugs, even though they were individually popular. As Sean McElwee of the progressive polling group Data for Progress put it, “Voters don’t know a ton about the bill or what was in it.” |
| 《通胀削减法案》在国会山进行了18个月的混乱谈判后达成，但它落地时也没有产生多大动静。相对而言，很少有美国人知道给胰岛素设定价格上限，并允许医保就处方药价格进谈判的规定，虽然对于相关利益人士，这些规定受到了欢迎。正如进步民意调查组织Data for Progress的肖恩·麦克尔维所说，“选民对该法案或其中的内容知之甚少。” |
| The country is as closely divided as ever. |
| 这个国家和以往一样存在巨大分歧。 |
| The chief force in American politics remains its deep partisan divide. There were indeed some ticket-splitters on Tuesday, but in general Democrats turned out en masse for Democrats, and Republicans for Republicans. In years past, Mr. Biden’s low approval ratings and inflation stuck at 40-year-highs might have augured a convincing drubbing for his party. Harry Truman lost 55 House seats in his first midterms; Bill Clinton lost 53; Barack Obama lost 63. |
| 美国政治的主要力量仍然是其深刻的党派分歧。周二确实有一些分裂投票者，但总的来说，民主党人大部分支持民主党人，共和党人大部分支持共和党人。在过去的几年里，拜登的低支持率和停留在40年高位的通货膨胀可能预示着他的政党必将遭受惨败。杜鲁门在他的第一个中期选举中失去了55个众议院席位；克林顿输了53个；奥巴马输掉了63个。 |
| That kind of rebuke didn’t happen to Mr. Biden. It is rarely how American politics works anymore. There are fewer true swing voters than ever — and a dwindling number of swingable races. |
| 这种非难并没有发生在拜登身上。美国政治不再是这样运作的了。真正的摇摆选民比以往任何时候都少——而且摇摆的竞选也越来越少。 |
| Most of the country’s 435 House seats were not in contention anyway, leaving the two sides to scrap over a battlefield shrunken by gerrymandering and sorted into polarized geographic enclaves. Fewer than a third of this year’s Senate races were ever competitive. Representative Tim Ryan could not escape Ohio’s rightward march despite a campaign Democrats hailed as “phenomenal”; nor could moderate Republicans like Joe O’Dea and Tiffany Smiley pull off upsets in Colorado and Washington State. |
| 无论如何，美国435个众议院席位中的大多数都没有面临竞争，双方的战场因选区划分而缩小，并被归入两极分化的地理飞地。今年的参议院竞选中，只有不到三分之一的席位存在竞争。议员蒂姆·瑞恩仍无法逃脱俄亥俄州在政治立场上右倾的趋势，即使民主党人称赞他的竞选活动“不同凡响“；像乔·奥迪和蒂芙尼·斯迈利这样的温和派共和党人，也无法在科罗拉多州和华盛顿州力挽狂澜。 |
| Voters re-elected Republican governors in Florida, Georgia and Texas. They returned Democrats to power in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And for all the record-shattering sums spent on campaigns and TV ads in the 2022 midterms — as much as $16.7 billion, by one estimate — the country is likely waking up on Nov. 9 much as it did on Nov. 8: split roughly in two. |
| 在佛罗里达州、佐治亚州和得克萨斯州，选民再次选举了共和党州长。在马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州、纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康辛州，选民让民主党人重新掌权。2022年中期在竞选活动和电视广告上的花费创下纪录——据一项估计，高达167亿美元——美国在11月9日醒来后的状态，就像11月8日一样：大致一分为二。 |
| “Nothing really worked this cycle,” said Ms. Greenberg, the Democratic pollster. “There are much larger issues at stake.” |
| “没有什么真的对这个循环起到了作用，“民主党民调专家格林伯格说。“它涉及更大的问题。” |
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