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中期选举提振拜登士气,未来挑战犹存
Biden Celebrates Beating the Odds, but He Faces a New Challenge

来源:纽约时报    2022-11-15 01:42



        WASHINGTON — President Biden on Wednesday celebrated avoiding the “giant red wave” that many had anticipated in this week’s midterm elections and reaffirmed that he intends to run again in 2024, even as he vowed to work across the aisle with ascendant congressional Republicans.        华盛顿——由于许多人预测本周中期选举会出现的“红潮”并没有出现,拜登总统周三表达了欣喜之情,并重申他有意在2024年竞选连任,尽管同时也承诺会与国会中占据优势的共和党人合作。
        While the president appeared to have beaten the historical odds by minimizing his party’s losses, he still faced the sobering prospect of a Republican-controlled House for the next two years even if Democrats hold the Senate, jeopardizing his ambitious legislative agenda and presaging a new era of grinding conflict with subpoena-powered opponents.        总统看起来已经一反历史规律,尽可能减少了本党的损失,但他仍然要面对一个严峻的现实,即便民主党继续掌握参议院,接下来两年里他还是要面对一个共和党控制的众议院,给他雄心勃勃的立法议程带来困难,而如今对手掌握了听证传讯的权力,也预示了一个艰苦缠斗的新时代即将到来。
        But at a post-election news conference at the White House, a cheerful Mr. Biden appeared energized by the better-than-expected results, calling it “a good day for democracy” while signaling no course correction and acknowledging no mistakes.        但是在选举后的白宫新闻发布会上,拜登看上去心情愉快,好于预期的结果让他十分振奋,称这一天“民主得到了好消息”,同时表示不打算改变计划,也不承认犯了任何错误。
        “I’m not going to change,” he said. While open to cooperation with Republicans, he defiantly said he would block any efforts by the opposition to unravel the accomplishments of his first two years. “I have a pen that can veto,” he said, making a signing motion with his hand.        “我是不会变的,”他说。虽然乐于和共和党人合作,他还是毫不避讳地说,反对派要是敢企图推翻他任期前两年的成就,他会出手阻拦。“我手上有一支可以一票否决的笔,”他一边说,一边用手摆出签字的样子。
        The mixed results from the midterm elections will take days or weeks to unfold as counting continues in key states and a Senate runoff looms in Georgia. It may take even longer to determine definitively what those results will mean for the rest of the Biden presidency. By any measure, Mr. Biden scored the best midterm result of any president in 20 years, avoiding the Republican surge that many strategists in both parties predicted, even as it could leave him with a more hostile Congress and uncertain prospects for advancing his priorities for the remainder of his term.        随着关键州的计票仍在继续,以及乔治亚州的一场参议院决选的临近,喜忧参半的中期选举还要再过数日乃至数周才能尘埃落定。而是次选举对拜登总统剩余任期会有怎样的影响,可能还需要更长的时间才能得到确凿的回答。无论怎么衡量,拜登拿到了20年来一个总统能拿到的最佳中期选举成绩,避免了两党许多策略人士预测的共和党大爆发,尽管最终还是会给他带来一个更具敌意的国会,也给他在剩下时间里意图推动的重要事项带来了不确定的前景。
        The elections were not a clear mandate for Mr. Biden, but neither were they the repudiation that many of his predecessors endured during midterms. An aging president sometimes seen as frail and hobbled by the highest inflation in four decades, an overseas war roiling energy markets and anemic poll numbers somehow overcame expectations anyway — another chapter in Mr. Biden’s lifelong narrative of stubborn resilience in the face of adversity.        是次选举没有给拜登带来明确的民意授权,但也避免了此前多位总统在中期受到的断然否决。面对四十年来最严重的通货膨胀 、一场搅动能源市场的海外战争,以及惨淡的民调数据,这位年迈的总统时常给人一种风烛残年的感觉,然而他还是打破了那些预言——拜登的政治生涯以在逆境中的顽强而闻名,此次选举为他的这种顽强续写了新的篇章。
        The results may encourage him to seek re-election and could for now quiet dissenting voices within his party that have been agitating for another standard-bearer in 2024 as he approaches his 80th birthday later this month. He has some breathing room to think it over without feeling rushed because former President Donald J. Trump may jump into the race as soon as next week. Mr. Biden indicated that he would talk it over with his family during the holidays and announce a decision “early next year.”        本月晚些时候拜登将迎来80岁生日,这些结果可能会鼓舞他寻求连任,同时也暂时压制了党内呼吁在2024年另觅旗手的声音。他现在有了些喘息之机,可以停下来考虑,不用因为前总统特朗普最快将于下周宣布竞选而急于做决定。拜登表示会在假日与家人商议,并在“明年初”宣布他的决定。
        “Our intention is to run again,” he said. “That’s been our intention regardless of what the outcome of this election was.”        “我们的打算是再次竞选,”他说。“无论这次选举结果如何,我们都是这个打算。”
        He added: “This is ultimately a family decision. I think everybody wants me to run, but we’re going to have discussions about it. And I don’t feel any hurry one way or another to make that judgment, today, tomorrow, whenever, no matter what my predecessor does.”        他还说:“这终归是一家人的决定。我觉得大家都希望我竞选,但是我们还是要商量商量。我不着急做决定,不管是今天,明天,还是什么时候,不管我的前任要干什么。”
        Asked if polling that shows most voters would rather he not run again would have any influence on his decision, he said crisply, “It doesn’t.” What would be his message to the doubters? “Watch me.”        民意调查显示大多数选民希望他不要再次竞选,当被问及这一结果是否会对他的决定产生任何影响时,他干脆地说:“不会。”他要传达给怀疑者的信息是:“看我的。”
        Even as the elections lifted Mr. Biden’s spirits, they undercut Mr. Trump, who watched with frustration as key allies went down to defeat and his own strongest rival for the next Republican nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis, scored an impressive landslide victory in Florida. Exit polls showed that even a not-popular Mr. Biden retains more public support than his predecessor.        就在选举提振拜登士气之时,特朗普受到削弱,他沮丧地看着关键盟友被击败,并且他在下届共和党提名中的最强大竞争对手罗恩·德桑蒂斯在佛罗里达州取得了惊人的压倒性胜利。票站民调显示,即使是不受欢迎的拜登也比他的前任保持着更多的公众支持。
        The president conceded that Mr. Trump’s supporters retain enormous influence and will be a challenge for him. “I don’t think that we’re going to break the fever for the super-mega MAGA Republicans,” he said. But he expressed hope that he can find common ground with the rest of the Republicans, whom he called “decent, honorable people.”        总统承认,特朗普的支持者拥有巨大的影响力,对他来说将是一个挑战。“我认为我们无法打消那些大号儿的超级MAGA共和党人的狂热,”他说。但他表示,他希望能与其他共和党人找到共同点,称他们为“正派、可敬的人”。
        “As I have throughout my career, I’m going to continue to work across the aisle to deliver for the American people,” he said. “And it is not always easy, but we did it in the first term.” To those Republicans planning to investigate his administration and even his family, he said, “Good luck in your senior year, as my coach used to say.”        “正如我在生涯中一直所做的那样,我将继续与对立党派合作,为美国人民谋福利,”他说。“这并不总是那么容易,但我们在第一个任期就做到了。”对于那些计划调查他的政府甚至他的家人的共和党人,他说:“就像我的教练过去常说的那样,祝你最后一年好运。”
        Mr. Biden acknowledged that the midterm elections were not a sign of satisfaction by the public. “The voters were also clear that they are still frustrated,” he said. “I get it. I understand it has been a really tough few years in this country for so many people.”        拜登承认,从中期选举可以看出公众并不满意。“选民的态度也很清楚,他们仍然感到不满,”他说。“我明白。我知道对于这个国家的很多人来说,这是非常艰难的几年。”
        Mr. Biden spoke a day before he is scheduled to leave town for an overseas trip that will allow him to emphasize his role as a world leader floating above domestic troubles. He is set to head to a series of meetings with international leaders in Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia with more wind at his back than anticipated, allowing him to avoid the perception of a president in trouble back home.        拜登在他计划出国访问的前一天发表了讲话,他可以借此强调自己在顾及国内问题的同时还是一名世界领导人。他将前往埃及、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚与国际领导人举行一系列会议,而他此时有了比预期更强的声势,这让他避免了背上一个在国内陷入困境的总统形象。
        In his news conference, Mr. Biden repeatedly returned to two themes: that Tuesday’s elections showed a renewed level of civility in the political process, and that they should reassure American allies and adversaries that the democratic process is alive in the United States.        在他的新闻发布会上,拜登反复回到两个主题:周二的选举表明政治进程的文明程度有了新的提高,他们应该让美国的盟友和对手放心,民主进程在美国仍然存在。
        He recalled his first Group of 7 summit in 2021, held in a British coastal resort, and remembered telling the assembled world leaders “that America is back. And one of them turned to me and said, for how long? For how long?”        他回忆起2021年第一次参加七国集团峰会的情景,那是在英国的一个沿海度假胜地,他记得曾告诉与会的世界各国领导人“美国回来了。其中一个人对我说,回来多久?回来多久?”
        But Mr. Biden may return from his overseas trip to a reality that is less heady than the Democratic exuberance now rippling through the party. If Republicans pick up the handful of seats needed to secure the House, as currently projected, not only would they be able to block Mr. Biden’s top legislative initiatives, but they would also be empowered to try to force the president to make concessions in some policy areas through the power of the purse.        虽然现在民主党内群情激昂,但当拜登从他的海外之行回来后,可能会发现现实没有这么振奋。如果共和党人如目前预测的那样获得确保众议院控制权所需的几个席位,他们不仅能够阻止拜登的首要立法举措,而且还有权试图通过国库的力量迫使总统在某些政策方面做出让步。
        While Mr. Biden remains armed with his veto pen, as he said, the road to keeping government doors open and avoiding default on the national debt could run through Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader aiming to become speaker. Just as ominous for the White House, Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, the hard-charging firebrand Trump ally set to take over the House Judiciary Committee, would have subpoena power to investigate the Biden administration.        正如拜登所说,尽管他仍然持有否决权,但要保持政府不关门和避免国债违约,就需要过加利福尼亚州众议员、志在成为议长的共和党领袖凯文·麦卡锡这一关。对白宫来说同样不妙的是,即将接管众议院司法委员会的俄亥俄州众议员吉姆·乔丹将拥有调查拜登政府的传讯权力,而他是个强硬而狂热的特朗普盟友。
        Democrats are in a better position to hold onto the Senate, but it will come down to a few outstanding races and possibly could wait until a Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia. The loss of the Senate would not only further complicate Mr. Biden’s legislative aspirations but also hinder his efforts to confirm officials to his administration and judges to the federal bench, even possibly a Supreme Court justice, should a vacancy emerge.        民主党人保住参议院控制权的希望更大一些,但这将取决于几场未决的竞选,并且可能要一直等到12月6日在佐治亚州举行的决选。失去参议院不仅会使拜登的立法愿望进一步复杂化,而且也妨碍他在联邦官员和法官席位出缺时让他的人选得到确认,这甚至包括了最高法院大法官的席位。
        The historical headwinds Mr. Biden faced as he went into Tuesday night were powerful. Only three times since the first congressional elections after World War II has inflation been as high as it is today heading into a national vote — in 1974, 1978 and 1980 — and in all three cases, the party of the incumbent president lost between 15 and 48 seats in the House.        从历史上看,拜登在周二晚上是要面临极为不利的局面的。自二战后的第一次国会选举以来,只有三次通货膨胀率达到今天选举期间的水平——1974年、1978年和1980年——这三次时任总统所在的政党失去了15到48个众议院席位。
        Given that history and Mr. Biden’s weak approval ratings, the possibility that the Republican pickups in the House this year could be held to about a dozen seats looked like a victory, especially compared with the losses of recent presidents. Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 House seats in 1994, George W. Bush’s Republicans lost 31 seats in 2006 (a “thumping,” he called it), Barack Obama’s party lost 64 seats in 2010 (a “shellacking”) and Mr. Trump’s Republicans lost 42 seats in 2018.        鉴于这些历史和拜登的低支持率,今年共和党在众议院的选举可能会保住十几个席位,这看起来像是一场胜利,尤其是与前几位总统的失利相比。比尔·克林顿的民主党人在1994年失去了54个众议院席位,乔治·W·布什的共和党人在2006年失去了31个席位(他称之为“重击”),贝拉克·奥巴马的政党在2010年失去了64个席位(一场“惨败”),特朗普的共和党人在2018年失去42个席位。
        “The political graveyards are full of those who underestimated him,” Paul Begala, who was a top adviser to Mr. Clinton, said of Mr. Biden. “How many times in 2020 did they count him out?” Or, he added, dismiss his chances of pushing through legislation that he eventually passed? “Politics is an uncertain business. But one constant remains: Joe Biden will be underestimated.”        “政治墓地里到处都是低估他的人,”克林顿的高级顾问保罗·贝加拉在谈到拜登时说。“他们在2020年有多少次没把他当回事?”或者认为他不可能推动那些最终得到通过的立法?他还说。“政治是一个充满不确定性的事情。但一个因素始终没变:乔·拜登会被低估。”
        For Mr. Biden, there could be an advantage in having Republican control on Capitol Hill, enabling him to use the opposition as a foil much as Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama did after their midterm defeats. Both of those presidents employed a mix of confrontation and compromise to rebound from those losses and go on to win re-election two years later.        对拜登来说,让共和党控制国会山可能是一个优势,这使他能够像克林顿和奥巴马在中期失败后所做的那样,将反对派当作一种衬托。那两位总统都采取对抗和妥协并用的方式,从损失中恢复过来,并在两年后赢得连任。
        Aides to Mr. Biden insist there are potential areas of cooperation even with today’s Trump-dominated Republicans, focusing on issues that are at the top of both parties’ priority lists, like combating the opioid crisis, imposing new regulations on major technology companies and fighting crime.        拜登的助手坚称,即使与今天特朗普主导的共和党人也有潜在的合作领域,重点关注双方优先考虑的问题,比如应对阿片类药物危机、增加对大型科技公司的监管以及打击犯罪。
        And some Republicans signaled on Tuesday night that they would like to find discreet areas of common ground. “If it’s a divided government, maybe something good can come of it,” Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and one of Mr. Trump’s closest allies, told NBC News.        有共和党人周二晚表示,他们愿在分歧领域寻找共识。南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员、特朗普最亲密的盟友之一林赛·格雷厄姆告诉NBC新闻,“如果变成一个分治的政府,也许会成就一些好的东西。”
        But the historical pattern of bipartisan deal making may be less relevant in an age of extremes. Although Mr. Biden has a history of working across the aisle, the next House Republican conference will be even more dominated by allies of Mr. Trump. And if Mr. Trump campaigns for the White House, he seems likely to goad those members to resist the sitting president at every turn.        但在这个极端时代,两党协商的历史模式可能已经不再那么重要。尽管拜登有跨党派合作经验,但下一届众议院共和党将更多地由特朗普盟友主导。如果特朗普竞选总统,他似乎很可能煽动这些成员处处抵制现总统。
        “Before, one could read such a midterm as a sign that the country wanted cooperation among both parties rather than rule by one,” said Russell Riley, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. “That hardly seems plausible now — either in theory or in practice. The result of a divided government now is more akin to putting armed gladiators in the arena.”        “换做以往,这样的中期选举可以被解读为国家希望两党合作而非一党说了算的信号,”弗吉尼亚大学米勒中心的总统学者拉塞尔·莱利说。“现在看来,无论是在理论上还是在实践中,这似乎都站不住脚了。现在政府分治的后果更像是将全副武装的角斗士放入竞技场。”
        And Mr. Biden would face pushback from some in his own party if he concedes too much in their view in the interest of bipartisanship. “Voters sent a clear message that working people are hurting and demanding more action not less,” Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington state and head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said on Wednesday. “That is the big takeaway from last night, whether or not we keep the House.”        如果拜登为了两党合作的益处做出在党内看来太多的让步,他也将遭遇其中一些人的反对。“选民们发出了一个明确的信号,即工薪阶层受到了伤害,他们要求采取更多行动,而不是减少,”华盛顿州民主党众议员兼国会进步党团负责人普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔周三表示。“无论我们是否保住众议院,这都是昨晚选举说明的一大问题。”
        As it stands, Mr. Biden already has a lot of work to be done, without Congress, just putting into effect the legislation he passed in his first two years, including trillions of dollars in spending on infrastructure, climate change, health care, manufacturing and other areas. As aides envision it, Mr. Biden could spend much of the next two years crisscrossing the country for ribbon-cutting ceremonies.        目前的情况是,在没有国会干预的情况下,仅仅是将他上任头两年通过的立法付诸实施,拜登就已经有很多工作有待完成,这包括投入在基础设施、气候变化、医疗保健、制造业和其他领域数万亿美元的支出。按照助手们的设想,拜登可能会在未来两年的大部分时间里穿梭于全国各地出席剪彩仪式。
        But the confrontation part of the Clinton-Obama strategy may yet be the formula he turns to. “In terms of Biden’s hopes of getting re-elected, he knows from experience that losing a midterm election positions the president to become a counterpuncher — as Obama did in 2011-2012 and Clinton did in 1995-1996,” said Michael Nelson, a political science professor at Rhodes College and author of several books on modern presidents. “It would help if the Republicans overplayed their hand as they did in those two prior cases.”        但他也可能转而采用克林顿-奥巴马战略中的对抗办法。“就连任希望而言,拜登凭经验也知道,中期选举失利会让总统成为反击者,正如2011年到2012年的奥巴马和1995年到1996年的克林顿,”著有多部关于现代总统书籍的罗德学院政治学教授迈克尔·尼尔森说。“如果共和党像那两次的情况一样高估自身优势,肯定也会有所帮助。”
                
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