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| BRUSSELS — As the contours of the new U.S. Congress become clearer, diplomats and policy analysts are trying to discern what it will mean for American support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, for NATO, and for what may be an even tougher line on China. | 布鲁塞尔——随着新一届美国国会的轮廓变得清晰，外交官和政策分析人士正试图搞清楚，这将对美国支持乌克兰对抗俄罗斯、对北约，以及可能对中国采取的更强硬路线带来怎样的影响。 |
| With the Republicans apparently heading for a narrow victory in the House of Representatives and the fate of the Senate uncertain, the analysts expect at a minimum that Europe will be under more pressure to increase its financial and military support for Ukraine. | 鉴于共和党人显然将在众议院以微弱优势取胜，而参议院的命运尚不能确定，分析人士预计，欧洲至少会面临增加对乌克兰财政和军事支持的更大压力。 |
| But there are also judgments being made about the health of American democracy and about the reach of former President Donald J. Trump and his election denying, ethnonationalist appeal, which has had an important impact on European political trends. | 但对于美国民主的健康状况、前总统特朗普的影响力和他拒不接受选举结果，以及对欧洲政治趋势产生重要影响的民族主义吸引力，人们也在做出判断。 |
| “I believe that the bulk of the Republican Party is not sympathetic to Russia,” said Michael Gahler, a conservative German member of the European Parliament, “and in substance we would not see a shift in the U.S. policy toward Ukraine.” | “我认为，共和党的大部分人并不同情俄罗斯，”欧洲议会的德国保守派议员迈克尔·加勒说。“实际上，我们并不会看到美国的乌克兰政策发生转变。” |
| Support for NATO, too, has been one of the few bipartisan causes in Congress, and that is expected to continue, especially in light of Russia’s challenge to the entire trans-Atlantic security order. | 对北约的支持也一直是国会中为数不多的两党共同目标之一，预计这种情况还将继续，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯对整个跨大西洋安全秩序所构成的挑战。 |
| Nathalie Tocci, the director of Italy’s Institute of International Relations, agreed. Already, she said, “the one thing we do know is that it’s not the ‘red wave’ people feared and a lot of MAGA Republicans didn’t get in,” referring to Mr. Trump’s slogan of “Make America Great Again.” | 意大利国际关系研究所所长娜塔莉·托奇对此表示赞同。她说，“我们已知的一件事是，这不是人们担心的‘红潮’，很多MAGA共和党人并没有当选，”MAGA指的是特朗普的口号“恢复美国伟大荣光”。 |
| By themselves, “these two facts have important implications for Europe,” Ms. Tocci said. “Regardless of the exact result, I don’t think now that there will be big changes in U.S. foreign policy, especially on Ukraine. There won’t be a strong enough core of Republicans stalling military assistance to Ukraine.” | “这两个事实本身就对欧洲有着重要影响，”托奇说。“无论具体结果如何，我现在并不认为美国的外交政策会有很大的变化，特别是在乌克兰问题上。不会有足够多的共和党人阻止对乌克兰的军事援助。” |
| Leslie Vinjamuri, who runs the U.S. and Americas Program for Chatham House, the London research organization, said that for Europe, an important thing about the midterm elections was that the results “were not good for Donald Trump, and for the U.S., whose fate has been tied up with the fate of Trump, this is no small thing.” | 伦敦研究机构查塔姆研究所美国和美洲项目负责人莱斯利·文贾穆里说，对欧洲来说，中期选举的一个重要问题是，结果“对特朗普不利，而对命运与特朗普紧密相连的美国来说，这不是一件小事”。 |
| Republican gains are not big enough to fuel a radical change in foreign policy, Ms. Vinjamuri said. “If the president comes under pressure to roll back support for Ukraine, it is more likely to come from America’s international partners than from Congress,” she said. “Climate deniers have also been denied a platform without challenge. This means the ambition to cooperate as well as to compete with China will continue.” | 文贾穆里说，共和党的胜利还不足以推动外交政策发生根本性变化。“如果总统受到压力，要求减少对乌克兰的支持，这种压力更有可能来自美国的国际伙伴，而不是国会，”她说。“否认气候变化的那帮人也被自动剥夺了发声平台。这意味着与中国合作和竞争的雄心将继续下去。” |
| The China issue and the way the United States regards Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy, may shift a little but not fundamentally, said Bonnie S. Glaser, the director of the Asia program of the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based research institution. “The only issue with full bipartisan support is China,” she said. “I don’t expect a fundamental game-changer. If anything, there is stronger Republican support for strategic clarity on China” when it comes to committing to defending Taiwan militarily, in other words, rather than the current policy of strategic ambiguity. | 总部位于华盛顿的研究机构德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说，中国问题以及美国对待台湾这个自治民主岛屿的方式可能会发生一点变化，但不是根本的变化。“唯一得到两党全力支持的问题是中国，”她说。“我并不指望根本性的游戏规则改变。要说有什么区别的话，那就是，在承诺军事保卫台湾的问题上，共和党人更支持对中国的战略明确性，”换言之，不是目前的战略模糊政策。 |
| But there are potential areas of conflict, she suggested. Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican minority leader who would be likely to replace Nancy Pelosi as the leader of the House if the Republicans win a majority, has said that he will go to Taiwan. When Ms. Pelosi did, it caused something of a crisis, with China conducting live-fire military drills. | 但她也表示，存在一些有可能发生冲突的领域。加利福尼亚州共和党少数党领袖凯文·麦卡锡表示，他未来将访台。如果共和党赢得多数席位，他很可能取代南希·佩洛西成为众议院领袖。佩洛西访台时，中国进行了实弹军事演习，引发了某种程度的危机。 |
| “The Chinese would react strongly” to another such visit, Ms. Glaser said, “and would want to do something unprecedented.” | 如果再来一次这样的访问，“中国人会做出强烈反应，”葛来仪说，“并且会想做一些前所未有的事情。” |
| “U.S. China policy is going to continue along the same trajectory — there won’t be a significant change,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “But the Republicans do tend to like enhancing or toughening the rhetoric on things.” | “美国的对华政策将继续沿着同样的轨迹发展——不会有重大变化，”斯坦福大学弗里曼－斯波格利国际问题研究所研究员奥丽娅娜·斯凯拉·马斯特罗说。“但共和党人确实倾向于采取更为强硬的措辞。” |
| President Biden’s administration has called managing Washington’s relationship with Beijing “the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century” and has defined much of its approach to China with this in mind, focusing policy on concerns over human rights, national security and economic interdependence. | 拜登政府将处理华盛顿与北京的关系称为“21世纪最大的地缘政治考验”， 并以此来确定其对华的大部分做法，将政策重点放在对人权、国家安全和经济相互依存的关注上。 |
| A Republican-controlled House could harden an already tough stance on American companies by calling for restrictions on exports to the Xinjiang region, where Beijing is accused of detaining hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs and other members of largely Muslim groups in indoctrination camps. | 共和党控制的众议院可能会通过呼吁限制对新疆地区的出口，来加强对美国企业本已强硬的立场。北京被指在新疆地区的教化营拘禁了数十万维吾尔人和其他以穆斯林为主的民族成员。 |
| That could place companies like Elon Musk’s Tesla in a tricky position, said Isaac Stone Fish, the chief executive of the consultancy firm Strategy Risks. Tesla came under political fire this year for opening a dealership in Xinjiang, but was not restricted from doing so by U.S. law. A Republican-controlled House could change that. | 咨询公司战略风险的首席执行官艾萨克·斯通·菲什说，这可能会让伊隆·马斯克的特斯拉等公司处于一个棘手的境地。特斯拉今年因在新疆开设经销商而受到政治批评，但美国法律并未限制其这样做。共和党控制的众议院可能会改变这种局面。 |
| Republicans could also push for further limits to Chinese involvement on Wall Street, in corporate America and on college campuses. “The Republicans are more comfortable restricting Chinese investment in the United States and restricting the ability of Chinese scholars and scientists to be here,” Mr. Stone Fish said. | 共和党人还可能推动进一步限制中国涉足华尔街、美国企业和大学校园。“共和党人更愿意限制中国在美国的投资，限制中国学者和科学家来这里的能力，”斯通·菲什说。 |
| The antagonistic messaging and actions by American lawmakers, especially on Taiwan, is nevertheless creating a greater opportunity for misunderstanding from the Chinese side that could elicit an overreaction, said Amanda Hsiao, a senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group. | 国际危机组织中国问题高级分析师萧嫣然说，美国立法者的对立信息和行动，特别是在台湾问题上，难免创造出使中方产生误解的更大机会，可能会引发过度反应。 |
| More broadly, the fact that the race between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate is so close might give Mr. Biden more room to try to ease tensions with China and make some adjustments in the relationship that would have previously been criticized by Republicans campaigning for election, said Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. | 战略与国际研究中心的甘思德(Scott Kennedy)表示，更广泛地说，共和党和民主党在参议院的竞争胜负难分，可能会给拜登提供更多空间来试图缓和与中国的紧张局势，并对中美关系做出一些调整，这在以前可能会受到参与竞选活动的共和党人的批评。 |
| But worries about the health of the American democracy have hardly gone away, with various election deniers voted into office and some tense recounts inevitable. | 但对美国民主健康状况的担忧几乎没有消失，许多不接受选举结果的人当选公职，一些紧张的重新计票不可避免。 |
| Mr. Biden on Wednesday reacted to Democrats’ better-than-expected results, calling Election Day “a good day for democracy,” but others see a worrying structural shift in American political culture that does not bode well. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, a Paris-based senior vice president in charge of geopolitical issues at the German Marshall Fund, said that it was Mr. Biden who appears to be a parenthesis in American political culture, not Mr. Trump. | 周三，拜登对民主党好于预期的结果做出反应，称选举日“对于民主来说，这是美好的一天”，但也有人认为美国政治文化的结构性转变令人担忧，这不是好兆头。德国马歇尔基金会巴黎办事处负责地缘政治问题的高级副总裁亚历山德拉·德霍普·谢费表示，在美国政治文化中，似乎拜登才是插曲，而非特朗普。 |
| “I don’t know if these elections elevate the European appreciation of American democracy,” she said. “We, in Europe, have to get over this denial of Trumpism.” The severe polarization in American politics and culture and the tendency to doubt the validity of elections are part of “a longer sequence of the Trumpification of U.S. politics and society,” she said in an interview. | “我不知道这些选举是否提升了欧洲对美国民主的理解，”她说。“在欧洲，我们必须克服对特朗普主义的否认。”她在接受采访时说，美国政治和文化的严重两极分化以及怀疑选举有效性的倾向是“美国政治和社会更为长期的特朗普化”的一部分。 |
| The midterms “should encourage Europeans to take seriously the anchoring of Trumpism in American society despite Republican results that are more modest than expected,” she wrote on Thursday in Le Monde. “He rather embodies the structural changes within American democracy and the questions it is facing about its place in the world.” | 中期选举“应促使欧洲人认真对待美国社会中已经锚定的特朗普主义，即使共和党方面的选举结果不及预期，”她在周四的《世界报》写道。“他倒是体现了美国民主内部的结构性变化，以及它所面临的关于其世界地位的问题。” |
| Ms. de Hoop Scheffer cautioned that it remained possible that the Republicans will still take both houses of Congress. “It’s not a red wave, but if they do, Biden will have a very difficult time.” As will America’s European allies, both on Ukraine and China, she said, where Washington will more aggressively push the Europeans to do more to finance Ukraine and to line up more firmly with Washington on limiting dependency on China. | 德霍普·谢费警告，共和党仍有可能拿下参众两院。“这不是‘红潮’，但如果他们做到了，拜登将会有一段非常艰难的时期。”她说，在乌克兰和中国问题上，美国的欧洲盟友也将如此，华盛顿将更积极地推动欧洲为乌克兰提供更多资金，以及在限制对中国的依赖方面更坚定地与华盛顿保持一致。 |
| “The Republicans will put more pressure on Biden and put more pressure on us,” she said. | “共和党人会对拜登施加更大的压力，也会对我们施加更大的压力，”她说。 |
| Ms. Tocci also sees an important moment in the political discussion of populism, given the strong influence of American political trends on Europe. About a month ago, with far-right populist parties doing well in Sweden and Italy, “there was a sense that national populism was on the rise again,” she said. “If there had been a MAGA red wave, it would have had a strong effect in Europe. But it looks like there is a certain resilience to democracy in the U.S., and that’s existential for Europe as well.” | 鉴于美国政治趋势对欧洲的强大影响，托奇还看到了民粹主义政治讨论的一个重要时刻。大约一个月前，由于极右翼民粹主义政党在瑞典和意大利表现出色，“人们感觉民族民粹主义再次抬头，”她说。“如果真的出现了MAGA‘红潮’，它将在欧洲产生强烈影响。但看起来美国民主有一定的复原力，这对欧洲民主的存续性也具有意义。” |
| In addition, she said, despite the criticism of Mr. Biden, he has delivered important domestic policy legislation and shown “rather effective management of Ukraine, the deepest European security crisis since World War II.” | 此外，她说，尽管拜登受到批评，但他还是实现了重要的国内政策立法，并“对乌克兰战争表现出相当有效的管理，这是二战以来最严重的欧洲安全危机”。 |
| So “it’s reassuring for democracy that policy matters, that if you govern pretty well, you’re kind of rewarded for it, or at least not punished for it,” she said. | 因此，“对民主来说，令人宽慰的是，政策很重要，如果你治理得很好，你就会因此得到奖励，或者至少不会因此受到惩罚，”她说。 |
| But no one is ruling out a Republican presidential victory in 2024, or a Trump return. | 但没有人排除2024年共和党赢得总统大选，或特朗普回归的可能性。 |
| “If Trump gets re-elected, let’s face it, it’s going to be far worse than in the 2016-2020 period,” said Rosa Balfour, the director of Carnegie Europe. “I think all the things that Europeans care about internationally would be totally upended.” | “让我们面对现实，如果特朗普再次当选，这将比2016-2020时期更糟，”卡内基国际和平基金会欧洲中心负责人罗莎·巴尔福说。“我认为欧洲人所关心的所有国际事务都会被彻底颠覆。” |
| Europe, preoccupied with Ukraine, may be a bit complacent, she said. “The E.U.’s response to Ukraine is a massive undertaking, and while I think the E.U. has done a good job, it does crowd out the possibility of thinking a little bit more strategically about the future — especially in the matters of security and defense.” | 她说，全神贯注于乌克兰的欧洲可能有点自满。“欧盟对乌克兰的回应是一项庞大的工程，虽然我认为欧盟做得很好，但它确实没有考虑到对未来进行更具战略性思考的可能性——尤其是在安全和国防问题上。” |
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