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| President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia began ramping up his nuclear rhetoric this fall, raising the specter that he could use such a weapon in Ukraine. As Mr. Putin was making threats, senior Russian generals were discussing the circumstances when they might possibly use a tactical nuclear weapon, The New York Times reported. | 俄罗斯总统普京今年秋天开始给他的核战言论加码，令人担心他有可能在乌克兰使用这种武器。据《纽约时报》报道，在普京发出威胁的同时，俄罗斯高级将领正在讨论在什么情形下可能使用战术核武器。 |
| American officials said they have seen no movement of Russian nuclear weapons and do not believe that the Russian government has decided to detonate such a device. But as Russia suffers setbacks on the battlefield, even talk about using one has raised alarm. | 美国官员表示没有发现俄罗斯进行了核武器调动，不相信该国政府已决定引爆这种武器。但随着俄军在战场上遭遇挫折，即便是谈及核武器的使用都会引起警觉。 |
| How concerned should we be? | 我们需要很担心吗？ |
| Russia has as many as 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, lower-yield devices designed to defeat conventional forces on the battlefield. A tactical nuclear weapon has never been used in combat, but one could be deployed in a number of ways, including by missile or artillery shell. | 俄罗斯拥有多达2000件战术核武器，这些低当量装置旨在击败战场上的常规部队。战术核武器从未用于战斗，但可以通过多种方式部署，包括导弹或炮弹。 |
| The likelihood that Mr. Putin will use a nuclear weapon remains exceedingly low. But the prospect of even a small nuclear device going off is so terrible that officials in the United States and elsewhere are concerned. Thousands of people could be killed, and millions sickened. | 普京使用核武器的可能性仍然极低。但即使只是引爆小型核装置的可能性也十分可怕，以至于美国和其他地方的官员都感到担忧。这可能导致数千人丧生，数百万人患病。 |
| Those concerns have risen with the Russian rhetoric and with U.S. intelligence about the discussions among senior generals. | 随着俄罗斯发表言论，以及美国情报部门获得的有关高级将领之间讨论的情报，这些担忧越来越强烈。 |
| “When the leader of a modern nuclear power, as Mr. Putin is, talks as recklessly and irresponsibly, as he has been doing, about the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, you’ve got to take it seriously,” John F. Kirby, a National Security Council official, told reporters on Wednesday. “And we’ve been taking this seriously since the very beginning.” | “当普京这样的现代核大国领导人在以一贯的鲁莽和不负责任的态度谈论有可能对乌克兰使用核武器时，你必须重视起来，”国家安全委员会官员约翰·F·柯比周三对记者说。“我们从一开始就很重视这件事。” |
| Noting Mr. Putin’s reference to America’s decision to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II, Mr. Kirby said Russia’s actions were increasingly unsettling. | 柯比注意到，普京提到美国当初在广岛和长崎投下原子弹以结束二战的决定，他说俄罗斯的行动越来越令人不安。 |
| “We have maintained, I believe, an appropriate level of concern about the potential use of weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine, to include nuclear weapons,” Mr. Kirby said. | “我相信，我们对大规模杀伤性武器——包括核武器——在乌克兰战争中被使用的可能性保持着适当程度的担忧，”柯比说。 |
| Could Russia just be trying to rattle the West? | 俄罗斯会不会只是想扰乱西方？ |
| American officials said it was entirely possible that the public rhetoric and private conversations among Russian officials were meant to raise fears in Washington. | 美国官员表示，俄罗斯官员的这些公开言论和私下谈话完全有可能是为了引发华盛顿的恐慌。 |
| The discussions, according to current and former officials, could be less about real planning and more about deterring the West from expanding its help to Ukraine. | 根据现任和前任官员的说法，讨论可能不是关于真正的计划，更多是为了阻止西方扩大对乌克兰的帮助。 |
| Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador, said conversations about the use of nuclear weapons should make everyone nervous. | 美国前大使迈克尔·麦克福尔表示，每个人听到关于使用核武器的谈话都会感到紧张。 |
| But Russia might partly be trying to discourage the United States from sending Ukraine advanced weapons like the Army Tactical Missile System, a longer-range weapon known as ATACMS. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine wants the weapons, and some former U.S. military officials think supplying them would dramatically help the Ukrainian army put Russian targets and supply depots at risk. | 但俄罗斯这样做可能部分是为了试图阻止美国向乌克兰送出先进的武器，例如称为陆军战术导弹系统(ATACMS)的远程武器。乌克兰总统泽连斯基想要这些武器，一些前美国军方官员认为，提供这些武器将极大地帮助乌克兰军队威胁到俄罗斯目标和补给站的安全。 |
| Mr. McFaul said that just by talking about nuclear weapons, the Russian leader was “achieving a practical military objective.” | 麦克福尔说，仅仅通过谈论核武器，俄罗斯领导人就“实现了一个实际的军事目标”。 |
| The Biden administration has supplied Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons, which have changed the course of the war, but it has held off giving Kyiv longer-range missiles, tanks and fighter planes. | 拜登政府向乌克兰提供了数十亿美元的武器，改变了战争的进程，但迟迟没有向基辅提供远程导弹、坦克和战斗机。 |
| “The Pentagon is not sending ATACMS,” Mr. McFaul told The New York Times. “The Pentagon is not sending MIG-29s. They’re not sending tanks. They are being deterred by Putin.” | “五角大楼没有送去ATACMS，”麦克福尔告诉《纽约时报》。“五角大楼没有送去MIG-29。他们没有送去坦克。他们被普京吓倒了。” |
| Is Russia trying to pressure Ukraine to negotiate? | 俄罗斯是否试图向乌克兰施压进行谈判？ |
| It is incredibly unlikely that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon, said Frederick B. Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former top U.S. Army commander in Europe. While the Soviet Red Army had war plans that involved using nuclear weapons on a battlefield and exploiting the results, Russia does not have trained troops who could take advantage of such a strike. | 退役中将、前美国驻欧洲陆军高级指挥官弗雷德里克·B·霍奇斯表示，俄罗斯使用战术核武器的可能性极小。虽然苏联红军曾经的战争计划涉及在战场上使用核武器并利用其造成的后果，但俄罗斯缺少训练有素的部队，无法将这样的袭击利用起来。 |
| “Their nuclear weapons are most useful to them when they don’t use them,” General Hodges said. “There’s just no battlefield advantage at all to use any nuclear weapon.” | “他们的核武器最有用的时候，是不使用的时候，”霍奇斯说。“使用任何核武器根本没有战场优势。” |
| Instead, Russian leaders hope nuclear threats will be enough to force Ukraine into diplomatic talks and to make concessions that Russia has failed to win on the battlefield. | 相反，俄罗斯领导人希望核威胁足以迫使乌克兰进行外交谈判，并在俄罗斯未能在战场上获胜的情况下做出让步。 |
| “They are trying to put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and cave in to the Kremlin’s demands,” General Hodges said. | 霍奇斯说：“他们正试图向乌克兰施加压力以进行谈判，并使其屈服于克里姆林宫的要求。” |
| Russia wants Ukraine to concede large areas of the country that Mr. Putin illegally annexed after sham referendums this year and in 2014, when Russian forces moved into Crimea. | 俄罗斯希望乌克兰割让该国大片地区，这些地区是普京在今年的虚假公投和2014年俄罗斯军队进入克里米亚后非法吞并的。 |
| But General Hodges said Russia’s attempts to make Ukraine cede territory would fail. And Ukrainians, he added, simply do not believe Russia will use a nuclear weapon. | 但霍奇斯表示，俄罗斯试图让乌克兰割让领土的企图将失败。他还说，乌克兰人根本不相信俄罗斯会使用核武器。 |
| Could Vladimir Putin be trying to influence his own public? | 弗拉基米尔·普京会试图影响他自己的公众吗？ |
| Russia’s efforts to expand conscription and mobilize more of its population to fight in Ukraine have been unpopular. And through much of October, Russian attitudes toward a nuclear war were trending negative, according to Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs, a company that has been tracking public sentiment in Russia. | 俄罗斯扩大征兵规模和动员更多人口在乌克兰作战的努力并不受欢迎。一直在追踪俄罗斯公众情绪的FilterLabs的首席执行官乔纳森·特布纳表示，在10月的大部分时间里，俄罗斯人对核战争的态度都趋于负面。 |
| But public opinion shifted after Mr. Putin and other Russian officials began talking about unfounded allegations that Ukraine was going to explode a “dirty bomb,” a munition designed to spread radioactive material. Many Western governments saw the dirty bomb allegations as an effort to create a pretext for Russia to detonate a nuclear weapon. | 但在普京和其他俄罗斯官员开始谈论乌克兰将要引爆一枚“脏弹”这种毫无根据的指控后，公众舆论发生了转变，这是一种旨在传播放射性物质的弹药。许多西方政府认为脏弹指控是俄罗斯在为引爆核武器制造借口。 |
| “Since the dirty bomb narrative, we have detected a significant increase in support for using nuclear weapons if necessary,” Mr. Teubner said. | “自从有关脏弹的说法出现以来，我们观察到人们对必要时使用核武器的支持显著增加，”特布纳说。 |
| Russian support for conscription flagged after the mobilization was announced in September, but Mr. Putin’s rhetoric about dirty bombs created a “rally-around-the-flag effect,” Mr. Teubner said. | 在9月宣布征兵动员后，俄罗斯人对征兵的支持减弱了，但普京关于脏弹的言论制造了“团结一致效应”，特布纳说。 |
| Most disturbing, he said, the biggest shift his firm had detected by tracking discussions on online forums and social media was in the sentiment toward using a nuclear weapon. | 他表示，最令人不安的是，他的公司在对网络论坛和社交媒体讨论的追踪中发现，最大幅度的转变出现在对使用核武器的支持上。 |
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