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马斯克,全球政治舞台的混乱制造者
How Elon Musk Became a Geopolitical Chaos Agent

来源:纽约时报    2022-10-28 02:23



        In the last four weeks, Elon Musk has offered a peace plan for Russia and Ukraine that outraged Ukrainian officials. He has posted a tweet about Iranian internet access that exposed government protesters to a phishing scheme. He has also suggested in a newspaper interview that China could be appeased if it were given partial control of Taiwan. An official in Taipei demanded that he retract his suggestion.
        在过去四周,伊隆·马斯克提出了一项针对俄罗斯和乌克兰的和平计划,激怒了乌克兰官员。他发布了一条关于伊朗互联网接入的推文,将政府抗议者暴露在一个网络钓鱼计划之下。他还在一次报纸采访中建议,如果给予中国对台湾的部分控制权,它可能会得到安抚。台北的一名官员要求他收回建议。
        Mr. Musk has in recent months emerged as a new, chaotic actor on the stage of global politics. While plenty of billionaire executives like to tweet their two cents on world affairs, none can come close to Mr. Musk’s influence and ability to cause trouble. He has sometimes waded into situations even after he was advised not to, and has already left behind plenty of messes.
        最近几个月,马斯克作为一个新的混乱因素出现在全球政治舞台上。尽管很多亿万富翁高管喜欢在Twitter上发表对世界事务的看法,但说到影响力和制造麻烦的能力,无人能与马斯克相提并论。有时甚至在别人劝他不要掺和的情况下继续插手,而且已经留下了很多烂摊子。
        While the bulk of Mr. Musk’s wealth comes from his stake in his electric car company, Tesla, his influence stems largely from his rocket company, SpaceX, which runs the Starlink satellite network. Starlink can beam internet service to conflict zones and geopolitical hot spots, and it has become an essential tool of the Ukrainian army.
        虽然马斯克的大部分财富来自他在电动汽车公司特斯拉的股份,但他的影响力主要来自他的火箭公司SpaceX,该公司运营着星链卫星网络,它可以向冲突地区和地缘政治热点地区传输互联网服务,已经成为乌克兰军队的一个重要工具。
        Mr. Musk’s influence will grow even further if his planned purchase of Twitter is finalized on Friday as he has promised. He has called himself a free speech absolutist, and he is expected to take a light touch to moderating Twitter’s content.
        如果马斯克收购Twitter的计划如他承诺的那样在周五敲定,他的影响力将进一步扩大。他称自己是言论自由的绝对主义者,预计他将采取减少干预的方式来监管Twitter的内容。
        His critics — and there are many — worry that it is difficult to separate Mr. Musk’s opinions from his business interests, especially when it comes to Tesla, which is increasingly dependent on China.
        批评他的人有很多,他们担心很难把马斯克的观点和他的商业利益分开,尤其是涉及越来越依赖中国的特斯拉时。
        “Technology has become central to geopolitics,” said Karen Kornbluh, a director with the German Marshall Fund, a geopolitical think tank, and a former adviser to President Barack Obama. “It is fascinating and it is messy and there is Elon Musk in the middle of it.”
        “技术已经成为地缘政治的核心,”地缘政治智库德国马歇尔基金会主任、奥巴马总统前顾问凯伦·科恩布鲁说。“它很迷人,但也很混乱,伊隆·马斯克就在其中。”
        In some cases, Mr. Musk has been a boon. When he provided Starlink internet access in Ukraine earlier in the year and funded at least part of the hardware and service, he equipped both civilians and soldiers with a crucial means of communication during the ongoing conflict with Russia.
        在某些情况下,马斯克算是恩人。今年早些时候,他为乌克兰提供星链互联网接入,并出资至少资助了部分硬件和服务,在与俄罗斯的持续冲突中,他为平民和士兵提供了至关重要的通信手段。
        But the messages he has delivered have also caused problems. Last week, in a Twitter post, he said he could not “indefinitely” fund Ukraine’s use of Starlink, before suddenly reversing course.
        但他传递的信息也引发了一些问题。上周,他在Twitter上发帖称,他不能“无限期”资助乌克兰使用星链,随后又突然改变了立场。
        Late last month, Mr. Musk attended a private event in Aspen called The Weekend. Organized partly by the former Google chief executive and government adviser Eric Schmidt, the event brought together American business and political leaders, including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Vice President Al Gore and the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford.
        上个月底,马斯克在阿斯彭参加了一个名为“周末”的私人活动。该活动部分由前谷歌首席执行官和政府顾问埃里克·施密特组织,汇集了美国商界和政界领袖,包括众议院议长南希·佩洛西、前副总统阿尔·戈尔和前参谋长联席会议主席约瑟夫·邓福德。
        At lunchtime, under a tent on a golf course, Mr. Musk took the stage for a sweeping conversation with the billionaire businessman David Rubenstein, according to two people who attended the event and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
        据两名不愿透露姓名的与会者透露,午餐时间,在一个高尔夫球场的帐篷下,马斯克登台与亿万富翁商人戴维·鲁宾斯坦进行了一次话题广泛的对话。
        At the end of the conversation, to the surprise of many in attendance, Mr. Musk proposed a peace plan for the war in Ukraine that would allow Russia to annex Ukrainian land, seeming to align himself with the Kremlin.
        在谈话结束时,令许多与会者感到意外的是,马斯克提出了一项乌克兰战争和平计划,该计划将允许俄罗斯吞并乌克兰的土地,听来似乎是站在克里姆林宫一边。
        The idea outraged many at the event, according to attendees. The next day, Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to President Biden, gave a video talk at the event and a questioner raised the issue of Mr. Musk’s peace plan. Mr. Sullivan did not comment on Mr. Musk’s remarks at the event, according to a National Security Council spokesperson. Nonetheless, Mr. Musk revealed his plan 10 days later on Twitter. The Kremlin publicly supported the idea.
        据与会者说,这一想法激怒了很多人。第二天,拜登总统的国家安全顾问沙利文在活动上发表了视频讲话,一名提问者提出了有关马斯克和平计划的问题。据国家安全委员会发言人表示,沙利文没有就马斯克在活动上的言论置评。尽管如此,马斯克还是在10天后在Twitter上公布了他的计划。克里姆林宫公开支持这一想法。
        President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and his top aides fiercely rebuked Mr. Musk’s plan. But his shifting positions put them in a bind: Starlink terminals have become a crucial means of communication for the Ukrainian Army.
        乌克兰总统泽连斯基及其高级助手强烈谴责了马斯克的计划。但他不断变化的立场让他们陷入了困境:星链终端已成为乌克兰军队的重要通讯手段。
        Mr. Musk did not respond to several requests for comment.
        马斯克没有回应记者的多次置评请求。
        In mid-September, as the army advanced into southern territories previously occupied by Russia, it lost access to Starlink in some areas near the front lines, four people with knowledge of the matter said. Two of them said this was because Mr. Musk had “geofenced” the service so that it was available only in certain areas. It was not clear why the satellite system was not working, and others in Ukraine reported that it was working fine.
        据四名知情人士透露,9月中旬,乌克兰军队向以前被俄罗斯占领的南部领土推进时,在前线附近的一些地区失去了与星链的连接。其中两人表示,这是因为马斯克对这项服务进行了“地理隔离”,使其仅在某些地区可用。目前还不清楚卫星系统为什么不能工作,乌克兰的其他人报告说,它工作正常。
        Mr. Musk has discussed the matter with both the Ukrainian government and the U.S. government in an effort to determine the locations where the army will have access to Starlink, according to the people. A National Security Council spokesperson said that the council, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and “officials across the U.S. government have spoken to Starlink and answered questions about U.S. policy like we do with all companies.”
        知情人士说,马斯克已经与乌克兰政府和美国政府讨论了这个问题,以确定军方可以访问星链的地点。国家安全委员会发言人表示,该委员会、财政部外国资产控制办公室以及“美国政府各部门官员都与星链公司进行了交谈,并回答了有关美国政策的问题,就像我们对所有公司所做的那样”。
        This month, Mr. Musk delivered more uncertainty to Ukraine when he said he could not keep paying for Starlink service to the country, making it seem like he was shouldering the expense. In fact, the United States, Britain and Poland have paid SpaceX for at least part of the Starlink cost, according to a document outlining the expenditures reviewed by The New York Times.
        本月,马斯克给乌克兰带来了更多的不确定性,他说,他不能继续为乌克兰的星链服务付费,这番话让外界认为是他在承担相关费用。事实上,根据《纽约时报》看过的一份概述支出的文件,美国、英国和波兰至少向SpaceX支付了星链项目的部分使用费。
        “He has to decide whether Starlink is a commercial service that provides sometimes lifesaving technology to its customers or a service that is highly dependent on the geopolitical interests of its management and, thus, unreliable for customers who have concerns over national security,” said Dimitri Alperovitch, co-founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a geopolitical think tank in Washington.
        华盛顿地缘政治智库西尔维拉多政策加速器的联合创始人迪米特里·阿尔佩罗维奇说,“他必须做出决定,星链究竟是一种有时为客户提供救命技术的商业服务,还是一种高度依赖于管理层地缘政治利益的服务,因此对那些担心国家安全的客户来说是不可靠的。”
        While he was in Aspen laying out his peace plan for the war in Ukraine, Mr. Musk also waded into unrest in Iran.
        当马斯克在阿斯彭为乌克兰战争制定和平计划时,他也介入了伊朗的动荡局势。
        As protests spread across the country and the authorities responded by blocking internet access in some areas, he appeared to come to the rescue. “Activating Starlink,” he said in a Twitter message after the U.S. government lifted some sanctions that limited the ability of American tech companies to operate in Iran so that they could aid protesters.
        随着抗议活动蔓延到伊朗全国各地,当局在一些地区采取了断网措施,他似乎前来救场。“正在激活星链,”他在Twitter上写道。此前,美国政府取消了一些限制美国科技公司在伊朗开展业务的制裁,以便它们能够为抗议者提供帮助。
        Starlink offered the potential to bypass the government’s blockade of land-based internet connections that had taken Iranians in many cities offline.
        星链为绕过政府对陆上互联网封锁提供了可能,这种封锁使许多生活在城市的伊朗人无法上网。
        But as many Iranians soon learned, Mr. Musk’s promise did not hold up. Left unsaid by Mr. Musk was any context on what was needed to get Starlink up and running, how long it would take and why Iranian government restrictions would make it nearly impossible to offer the service widely inside Iran.
        但是,许多伊朗人很快了解到,马斯克没有守住承诺。马斯克没有透露有关启动和运行星链所需的任何信息,需要多长时间以及为什么伊朗政府的限制会使其几乎不可能在伊朗境内广泛提供服务。
        While Starlink remained unavailable in Iran, hackers believed to have links to the government began a phishing campaign, sending messages inside social media channels with links claiming to provide access to Starlink, according to Amir Rashidi, a digital rights expert from Iran. Rather than providing access to Mr. Musk’s satellite system, the links were malware that gobbled up information from the users’ phones, said Mr. Rashidi, who analyzed at least five versions of the malware.
        据伊朗数字权利专家阿米尔·拉希迪称,在伊朗仍然无法使用星链的同时,据信与政府有联系的黑客开始了网络钓鱼活动,在社交媒体渠道发送带有链接的信息,声称可以提供星链。拉希迪说,这些链接不是提供对马斯克卫星系统的访问权限,而是从用户手机中获取信息的恶意软件,他对至少五种恶意软件进行了分析。
        A small amount of Starlink internet access is now available in Iran with equipment smuggled across its border, Mr. Rashidi said. That is creating additional concerns that the authorities will be able to identify data transmitted because the satellite signals may be traceable to individuals on the ground.
        拉希迪说,伊朗现在有少量的星链互联网接入,设备是通过边境走私过来的。这引发了额外的担忧,即当局将能够识别传输的数据,因为卫星信号可能可追踪到地面上的个人。
        Mr. Rashidi, who fled the country in 2009, commended Mr. Musk for trying to help but said his tactics were “very irresponsible.”
        2009年逃离该国的拉希迪称赞马斯克试图提供帮助,但表示他的策略“非常不负责任”。
        “It was just someone who wanted to jump up to say, ‘I’m doing something good,’ without understanding what the consequences would be,” he said.
        “其实就是突发奇想地说‘我在做一件好事’,却没有考虑后果,”他说。
        Mr. Musk also recently stepped into perhaps the world’s most delicate geopolitical hot spot: Taiwan.
        马斯克最近还涉足了或许是世界上最微妙的地缘政治热点:台湾。
        Tensions between China and Taiwan pose major risks to Mr. Musk’s business empire. Tesla operates a manufacturing facility in Shanghai that produces as much as 50 percent of the company’s new cars. The Beijing government tightly controls how Western companies operate in the country, and observers have long worried about how Tesla’s dependence on China could affect Mr. Musk’s political positions.
        中国和台湾之间的紧张关系对马斯克的商业帝国构成重大风险。特斯拉在上海拥有一家工厂,占该公司新车产量的50%。北京政府严格控制西方公司在中国的经营方式,观察人士长期以来一直担心,特斯拉对中国的依赖会影响马斯克的政治立场。
        This month, Mr. Musk confirmed that he faced pressure from Beijing, when he told the Financial Times that the Chinese government had made it clear that it disapproved of his offering Starlink internet service in Ukraine. Beijing sought assurances, he said, that he would not offer the service in China.
        本月,马斯克证实他面临来自北京的压力,当时他告诉《金融时报》,中国政府已明确表示不赞成他在乌克兰提供星链互联网服务。他说,北京寻求保证他不会在中国提供这项服务。
        Then he offered a way of easing the tensions: handing some control of Taiwan to China.
        然后他提出了一种缓和紧张局势的方法:将台湾的部分控制权交给中国。
        The comment, which breaks sharply with the policy of the United States and its allies, drew swift rebukes from Taiwanese politicians.
        这一评论与美国及其盟国的政策大相径庭,很快遭到台湾政界人士的谴责。
        In a phone interview with The New York Times, Chao Tien-Lin, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party and the Taiwanese legislature’s foreign affairs and defense committee, called on Mr. Musk to retract his statement. “If he does not, I will sincerely advise not just Taiwan but all consumers in liberal democratic countries to boycott Tesla and its related products,” he said.
        在接受《纽约时报》电话采访时,民进党和台湾立法院外交及国防委员会成员赵天麟呼吁马斯克收回他的声明。“如果他不这样做,我将真诚地建议不仅台湾,还有所有自由民主国家的消费者都抵制特斯拉及其相关产品,”他说。
        Some have pointed out that if a military conflict breaks out between the two countries, the Taiwanese, like the Ukrainians, may call on Mr. Musk to provide an emergency means of communication with satellite internet. But given Mr. Musk’s public stance on the situation and links to China, Starlink may not be a viable option.
        有人指出,如果两国发生军事冲突,台湾人可能会像乌克兰人一样,呼吁马斯克提供卫星互联网的紧急通信手段。但鉴于马斯克对局势的公开立场和与中国的联系,星链也许不会是一个可行的选择。
        
        
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