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面对孤立,俄罗斯与缅甸“抱团取暖”
Shunned by the West, Russia and Myanmar Form a Partnership of Unequals

来源:纽约时报    2022-10-27 04:32



        Myanmar has been cut off from the West and shunned by its neighbors after its military seized power last year and imposed a brutal crackdown. Even China, its closest ally, has signaled it is not thrilled about the instability.
        去年缅甸军方夺取政权并实施残酷镇压后,西方与其断绝往来,邻国也在回避它。就连缅甸最亲密的盟友中国也表达了对这一动荡局面的不快。
        With few friends left in the world, the junta, desperate for legitimacy, is embracing deeper ties with Russia. It is a relationship of unequals where each side has something to gain. Myanmar gets resources, ammunition, and a powerful partner to back them at the United Nations, while Russia gets another customer at a time when it is struggling to find sources of revenue.
        由于在世界上几乎没有朋友,迫切需要合法性的军政府正与俄罗斯建立更深层次的关系。这是一种不平等的关系,然而双方都得到了好处。缅甸得到了资源、弹药和一个在联合国支持他们的强大合作伙伴,而俄罗斯在努力寻找收入来源的时候得到了另一个客户。
        And both can use the other to undermine the Western sanctions imposed on them — Myanmar, for launching a coup, and Russia, for invading Ukraine. In their vision, they are part of a new world order, two countries led by strongmen ideologically opposed to democracy.
        两国都可以利用对方来破坏它们受到的西方制裁——缅甸因发动政变,俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰。在它们的设想中,这两个国家是世界新秩序的一部分,由意识形态上反对民主的强人领导。
        Ever since the coup in February of last year, the head of Myanmar’s junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has been on a charm offensive. He has visited Russia three times, more than any other country. Just days after the war began in Ukraine, his administration was quick to say that Moscow had “done its part to maintain its sovereignty,” the only country in Southeast Asia to endorse the invasion.
        自从去年2月发生政变以来,缅甸军政府领导敏昂莱大将一直在发动魅力攻势。他曾三次访问俄罗斯,比其他任何国家都多。乌克兰战争刚刚开始几天,他的政府就迅速表示,莫斯科“为维护主权尽了自己的责任”,成为东南亚唯一支持入侵的国家。
        It all laid the groundwork for his biggest diplomatic achievement yet: a meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
        这一切为他迄今最大的外交成就奠定了基础:与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤。
        During that meeting, at an economic forum in Vladivostok last month, General Min Aung Hlaing told Mr. Putin that “Russia has become such a leading country because of your leadership.”
        上个月在符拉迪沃斯托克的经济论坛上,敏昂莱对普京表示,“由于你的领导,俄罗斯已经成为一个如此领先的国家。”
        “We see that you’re dealing with world affairs impartially and correctly,” the junta chief said.
        “我们看到你公正、正确地处理国际事务,”这位军政府领导人说。
        In return, the general got oil, an agreement from Russia to explore nuclear energy in Myanmar — and respect.
        作为回报,将军得到了石油,俄罗斯在缅甸开发核能的协议——以及尊重。
        The Kremlin has referred to General Min Aung Hlaing as the “prime minister,” a post the junta leader gave himself that no other major country recognizes. And last month, Myanmar was invited to become a dialogue partner at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an eight-member organization, including Russia, India and Pakistan, that founded by China as a counterweight to Western influence in Central Asia.
        克里姆林宫称敏昂莱为“总理”,这是该军政府领导人给自己安上的职位,没有获得其他大国承认。上个月,缅甸受邀成为上海合作组织的对话伙伴国。该组织由八名成员组成,包括俄罗斯、印度和巴基斯坦,由中国创立,旨在制衡西方在中亚的影响。
        “Russia is the last diplomatic resort,” said Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst at the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar, a research group.
        “俄罗斯是最后的外交手段,”研究机构缅甸战略与政策研究所的政治分析师昂图年(音)说。
        Since the coup, the junta has struggled to find even a modicum of support elsewhere in the world.
        自政变以来,军政府一直苦于难以在世界其他地方找到哪怕一点点支持。
        The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on dozens of top military officials and state-owned enterprises. The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has long maintained a policy of noninterference in each country’s internal affairs, blocked Myanmar from participating in recent leader summits. And the relationship with China, sometimes fraught, has only gotten more complicated.
        美国和欧盟对数十名缅甸高级军事官员和国有企业实施了制裁。拥有10个成员国的东南亚国家联盟一直奉行不干涉各国内政的政策,最近也阻止缅甸参加其领导人峰会。缅甸与中国的关系有时很紧张,但现在变得更加复杂。
        Both China and Myanmar like to say that their relationship is so close that it’s fraternal, using the Burmese phrase “pauk phaw,” meaning siblings from the same mother. China, along with Russia, has consistently vetoed U.N. resolutions to denounce the military regime.
        中国和缅甸都喜欢形容两国关系亲密到像兄弟一样,用缅甸语来说是“pauk phaw”,意思是一母所生的兄弟姐妹。中国和俄罗斯一直否决联合国谴责缅甸军事政权的决议。
        But the Tatmadaw, as the Myanmar military is known, has also long been suspicious of China, its northern neighbor. Many generals spent most of the 1970s battling communist rebels funded by Beijing. Senior officials in Myanmar have also complained to China that armed insurgents along their shared border are getting Chinese financial and military aid.
        但被称为“国防军”的缅甸军队长期以来也对北方邻国中国心存疑虑。20世纪70年代的大部分时间里,许多将军都在与北京资助的共产主义叛军作战。缅甸高级官员还向中国抱怨称,中缅边境的武装叛乱分子得到了中国的财政和军事援助。
        The coup, and the instability it has caused, has frustrated China. When China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited Myanmar in July, he snubbed General Min Aung Hlaing, choosing to meet only with the country’s foreign minister, in a departure from the past.
        这次政变以及随之而来的动荡让中国头疼不已。中国外交部长王毅7月访问缅甸时没有见敏昂莱,只见了该国外交部长,这和以往有所不同。
        “I would probably characterize the relationship as tepid,” said Ian Storey, a senior fellow with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies’ Regional Strategic and Political Studies Program. “Min Aung Hlaing has yet to meet a single senior Chinese leader, so that’s very telling.”
        “要我看,两国关系大概是一个不温不火的状态,”东南亚研究所地区战略和政治研究项目高级研究员伊恩·斯多里说。“敏昂莱至今没见过任何一个中国高层领导人,这是很说明问题的。”
        Moscow gets something out of the relationship with Myanmar’s junta, gaining another customer for its oil and at least another country that isn’t outraged over its invasion of Ukraine. But Myanmar needs Russia much more.
        莫斯科在与缅甸军政府的往来中得到了一些好处,给自己的石油找到了又一个买家,此外在入侵乌克兰一事上,也争取到又一个至少没表达愤怒的国家。但缅甸对俄罗斯的依赖要大得多。
        The Southeast Asian state has been mired by a fuel shortage, compounded by the junta’s mismanagement and the global surge in energy prices. The spokesman for Myanmar’s junta, Zaw Min Tun, said last month that the oil from Russia came “at a cheap price” and that the first 30,000 tons of Russian oil were set to arrive soon in Myanmar. While the proportion is minuscule compared to what Russia has sold to China and India, General Min Aung Hlaing has promised a “continuous purchase” of fuel from Moscow that he would pay for in rubles.
        在军政府管理不善和全球能源价格暴涨的双重作用下,这个东南亚国家深受燃料短缺之苦。缅甸军政府发言人绍敏通上月表示,俄罗斯的石油“价格低廉”,第一批30000吨俄罗斯石油很快将运抵缅甸。相比俄罗斯卖给中国和印度的石油,这个量微不足道,但敏昂莱承诺向莫斯科“持续购买”燃料,并且用卢布支付。
        “It shows that this axis of autocrats is a problem for using sanctions as leverage,” said Laurel Miller, the program director for Asia for International Crisis Group.
        “可以看到,这种专制政权的联盟给把制裁用作影响力的做法造成了麻烦,”国际危机集团亚洲项目主任劳雷尔·米勒说。
        Russia could also eclipse China as Myanmar’s top supplier of weapons, which have been frequently deployed by the military against civilians since the coup. From 2001 to early 2021, Myanmar bought $1.7 billion of arms from Russia, equal to the amount provided by China over the same period, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
        此外俄罗斯可能在武器供应上也盖过了中国,成为缅甸头号军火供应商,自政变以来,军方频频使用这些武器对付平民。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究院(SIPRI)的数据,从2001年到2021年初,缅甸向俄罗斯购买了17亿美元的军火,与中国在这段时间里的供应量差不多。
        Myanmar bought an air defense missile system from Russia in 2021, according to data from SIPRI. There were no known figures for weapons imports from China after the coup.
        SIPRI数据显示,缅甸在2021年从俄罗斯购买了一套防空导弹系统。政变后从中国进口武器的数据欠奉。
        General Min Aung Hlaing has said that he was willing to sign more arms deals, even as there were questions about whether Russia, struggling in its war against Ukraine, would have the supplies. During his recent trip to Russia, he inspected the production of the Russian-made Su-30 fighter jets that are set for delivery to the Myanmar army soon, according to Mr. Zaw Min Tun, the junta spokesman.
        敏昂莱曾表示希望双方签更多军售协议,尽管有人怀疑深陷俄乌战争泥潭的俄罗斯不见得有货可卖。据发言人绍敏通说,近日访问俄罗斯时,他前去查看了将交付缅甸军方的苏-30战斗机的生产。
        For most of the 2000s, much of Myanmar’s engagement with Russia was limited to arms purchases and military training. But this year marked a higher level of engagement with Moscow. In August, the Tatmadaw took part in the International Army Games in Moscow. A month later, it joined China and India and 11 other countries in Vostok 2022, Russia’s large-scale military exercises in the Russian Far East.
        2000年代的大多数时间里,缅甸与俄罗斯的往来基本限于武器购买和军事训练。但今年双方进行了更多接触。8月,缅甸国防军参加了在莫斯科举行的国际军事比赛。一个月后又与中国、印度及另外11个国家一道,参加俄罗斯在其远东地区进行的“东方-2022”大型军事演习。
        The cooperation has also extended to finance, with the ultimate, if somewhat quixotic, goal of what the junta says is the creation of “a financial system that does not rely on the U.S. currency.”
        两国合作还扩展到了金融领域,最终目标——尽管有些不切实际——如军政府所言,是要创建“一个不依赖美国货币的金融系统”。
        
        
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