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五角大楼最新国防战略:中国构成长期挑战
Pentagon’s Strategy Says China and Russia Pose Very Different Challenges

来源:纽约时报    2022-10-28 04:14



        WASHINGTON — Eight months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as China pushes to increase its nuclear, space and cyberforces, the Pentagon outlined a sweeping new strategy on Thursday that called for more robust deterrence at an increasingly tense moment in international security.        华盛顿——俄罗斯入侵乌克兰已经八个月,加之中国着力增加其核武、太空和网络力量,五角大楼周四概述了一项全面的新战略,呼吁在国际安全日益紧张的时刻做出更有力的威慑。
        The document, the National Defense Strategy, which also includes reviews of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and missile defenses, has been circulating for months in classified form on Capitol Hill.        这份名为《国防战略》的文件还包括对美国核武库和导弹防御系统的评估,已在国会山以机密形式传阅了数月。
        The last national defense strategy, published in 2018 by the Trump administration, was the first since the end of the Cold War to refocus U.S. defenses on what it called the twin “revisionist” powers of China and Russia. President Biden’s document builds on that theme but distinguishes between describing China as a “pacing” technological and military challenger, and Russia as an “acute” threat but a declining power.        上一份国防战略由特朗普政府于2018年发布,自冷战结束以来首次将美国的防御重点重新集中在中国和俄罗斯这两个所谓“修正主义”大国上。拜登总统的文件建立在这一主题之上,但区分了两者,将中国描述为“缓速的”的技术和军事挑战,将俄罗斯描述为“严重”威胁,但是一个正在衰落的大国。
        It prioritizes threats to the country, maps out the military’s response in broad terms and guides Pentagon policy and budget decisions on a range of issues, such as what weapons to develop and the shape of the armed forces.        文件将国家面临的威胁列出优先级,对军事回应做出宽泛界定,并指导五角大楼在一系列问题上的政策和预算决策,例如开发哪些武器和武装部队的形态。
        But its contrast to the last document issued by a Democratic president, Barack Obama, is stark. Mr. Obama’s strategy — first issued in 2010 with Mr. Biden, who was the vice president at the time — aimed to drastically diminish the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defenses and focused much of its attention on keeping nuclear material out of the hands of terror groups. At the time, China and Russia were considered full partners in the effort to contain North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and dissuade Iran from building nuclear weapons.        但它与民主党总统贝拉克·奥巴马发布的最后一份文件形成鲜明对比。奥巴马的战略——2010年首次与当时的副总统拜登共同发布——旨在大幅削弱核武器在美国防御中的作用,并将大部分注意力集中在防止核材料落入恐怖组织手中。当时,中国和俄罗斯被认为是遏制朝鲜核武库和劝阻伊朗制造核武器的全面合作伙伴。
        The new document is devoid of much specificity about how the Pentagon will shift its weapons and personnel to fit a new era of heightened superpower competition.        新文件没有具体说明五角大楼将如何调整其武器和人员,以适应超级大国竞争加剧的新时代。
        It describes a Russia armed with 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons and not bound by any treaty that limits the number, raising “the possibility it would use these forces to try to win a war on its periphery or avoid defeat if it was in danger of losing a conventional war.”        文件将俄罗斯描述为一个拥有2000件战术核武器的国家,并且没有任何限制数量的条约约束它,这增加了一种风险,即“一旦面临输掉一场常规战争,它可能会利用这些力量,试图在其周边地区赢得一场战争或避免失败”。
        That is exactly what President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has threatened.        这正是俄罗斯总统普京发出的威胁。
        The document also describes an effort by China to expand its nuclear arsenal to about 1,000 strategic weapons in coming years. “The current and growing salience of nuclear weapons in the strategies and forces of our competitors heightens the risks,” it says.        该文件还描述了中国在未来几年将其核武库扩大到约1000件战略武器的努力。文件称:“在我们竞争对手的战略和军力中,核武器当前及日益突出的显著性加剧了这些风险。”
        Threats from Iran, North Korea and terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State persist — and new challenges, like global climate change, are emerging. But the strategy document focuses heavily on China and Russia.        来自伊朗、朝鲜以及基地组织和伊斯兰国等恐怖组织的威胁持续存在——全球气候变化等新挑战正在出现。但战略文件重点关注中国和俄罗斯。
        “The P.R.C. and Russia now pose more dangerous challenges to safety and security at home, even as terrorist threats persist,” the document said, using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China. It noted that both rivals have deployed space weapons that could disrupt GPS and other “space-based capabilities that support military power and daily civilian life.”        文件称:“即使恐怖主义威胁仍然存在,中国和俄罗斯现在对国内安保构成更危险的挑战。”它指出,这两个竞争对手都部署了可能破坏GPS和其他“支持军事力量和日常生活的天基能力”的太空武器。
        The Pentagon sent a classified version of the defense strategy to Congress in March; at that time it also released a bare-bones, two-page fact sheet that summarized the document’s contents. The release on Thursday of the unclassified version, running nearly 80 pages, was delayed until the White House made public its overarching national security strategy this month.        五角大楼在3月向国会发送了一份国防战略的机密版本;当时它还发布了一份简化的两页情况说明书,概述了该文件的内容。周四发布的非机密版本将近80页,一直被延迟,直到白宫本月公布其总体国家安全战略后才公布。
        In that document, Mr. Biden made clear that over the long term he was more worried about China’s moves to “layer authoritarian governance with a revisionist foreign policy” than he was about a declining, battered Russia.        在那份文件中,拜登明确表示,从长远来看,相比对衰落、遭受重创的俄罗斯的担忧,他更担心中国“将威权治理与修正主义外交政策嫁接”的行动。
        The Pentagon document cited several new challenges to strategic stability, including hypersonic weapons, advanced chemical and biological weapons, and emerging warheads and delivery systems for conventional arms and tactical nuclear weapons.        五角大楼的文件列举了战略稳定性面临的几个新挑战,包括高超音速武器、先进的化学和生物武器,以及用于常规武器和战术核武器的新型弹头和投送系统。
        That threat became more evident in the past several weeks amid signs that Mr. Putin’s commanders may be preparing the ground for a sharp escalation in the war in Ukraine. Mr. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons.        在过去几周,有迹象表明普京的指挥官可能正在为乌克兰战争的急剧升级做准备,使这种威胁变得更加明显。普京已威胁要使用战术核武器。
        While U.S. officials said that there had been no change in Russia’s nuclear posture, and that they believed no decision had been made to use a tactical nuclear weapon, they made clear that a move in that direction was their central concern.        虽然美国官员表示俄罗斯的核态势没有改变,而且他们相信使用战术核武器的决定尚未做出,但他们明确表示,他们的核心顾虑是事态在朝这个方向迈进。
        The worries reflect what the defense strategy calls “the acute threat posed by Russia, demonstrated most recently by Russia’s unprovoked further invasion of Ukraine.”        这些担忧反映了国防战略所称的“俄罗斯构成的严重威胁,以俄罗斯近期无端进一步入侵乌克兰为佐证”。
        In response, the document said, “The department will focus on deterring Russian attacks on the United States, NATO members and other allies, reinforcing our ironclad treaty commitments, to include conventional aggression that has the potential to escalate to nuclear employment of any scale.”        该文件对此回应:“国防部将专注于阻止俄罗斯对美国、北约成员国和其他盟国的攻击,加强我们对条约的严格承诺,包括可能升级为使用任何规模的核武器的常规侵略。”
        The Pentagon has already taken several steps to bolster its deterrence in Europe. The United States now has just over 100,000 troops on the continent, up more than 20,000 forces since before the Ukraine war started in February.        五角大楼已经采取了一些措施来加强其在欧洲的威慑力。美国现在在欧洲大陆的军队人数刚刚超过10万,比2月乌克兰战争爆发前增加了2万多人。
        Mr. Biden announced in June that the United States would establish a permanent military base in Poland. It is the first time the country has done so anywhere on NATO’s eastern flank, which until now has had only a rotating troop presence.        拜登在6月宣布,美国将在波兰建立一个永久性军事基地。这是在北约东翼的首次,此前美国在该地区只有轮换部队。
        The Pentagon will also maintain an additional rotational Army brigade in Romania, increase rotational troop deployments in the Baltic countries, deploy two squadrons of F-35 aircraft to Britain, station additional air defense units in Germany and Italy, and seek to increase the number of destroyers stationed in Spain.        五角大楼还将在罗马尼亚额外保留一个轮换的陆军旅,增加在波罗的海国家的轮换部队部署,向英国部署两个F-35飞机中队,在德国和意大利增派防空部队,并寻求增加驻扎在西班牙的驱逐舰。
        If Russia was the Pentagon’s immediate security challenge, China was its long-term concern, or “pacing challenge,” the strategy document said.        战略文件称,如果说俄罗斯是五角大楼的直接安全挑战,那么中国则是其长期关注的问题,或者说是“缓速的挑战”。
        To counter China’s influence, the document said that the Pentagon would continue to build up basing and coordinate with the State Department to expand U.S. access in the region.        为对抗中国的影响,该文件称,五角大楼将继续建立基地并与国务院协调,以扩大美国在该地区的存在。
        “The P.R.C. is the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so,” Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told reporters at the Pentagon, repeating a line that appears in the national security strategy.        国防部长劳埃德·J·奥斯汀三世在五角大楼对记者表示:“中国是唯一既有重塑国际秩序的意图,又越来越有能力这样做的竞争对手。”他重复了国家安全战略中出现的一句话。
        But it was the awkwardly named Nuclear Posture Review that angered many arms control advocates, who argue that Mr. Biden is backing away from suggestions during his presidential campaign that he would move toward a declaration that the United States would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.        但激怒了许多军备控制倡导者的是标题略显古怪的《核态势评估》,拜登在总统竞选期间表示,他的意向是宣布美国永远不在冲突中率先使用核武器,但倡导者们认为拜登正在放弃这一打算。
        In a 2020 Foreign Affairs article titled “Why America Must Lead Again,” Mr. Biden wrote that he believed “the sole purpose” of the nation’s nuclear arms should be to deter — and, if necessary, to retaliate against — a nuclear strike. “As president,” he said, “I will work to put that belief into practice.”        拜登在2020年《外交》杂志一篇题为《为什么美国必须再次领导世界》的文章中写道,他认为国家核武器的“唯一目的”应该是威慑核打击,并在必要时进行核打击报复。“作为总统,”他说,“我回努力将这一信念付诸实践。”
        But after he was in office, European and Asian allies complained that the “sole purpose” language might put them in danger, because the protection of the American nuclear umbrella, in their view, could deter an adversary like North Korea or China from mounting a conventionally armed invasion. Mr. Biden relented.        但在他上任后,欧洲和亚洲盟友抱怨说,“唯一目的”这样的措辞可能会使他们处于危险之中,因为在他们看来,美国核保护伞的保护可能会阻止像朝鲜或中国这样的对手逐步发动常规武装入侵。拜登让步了。
        The Nuclear Posture Review released Thursday retained the Pentagon’s customary language. It said deterring an attack was “the fundamental role,” not the sole purpose, of the weapons.        周四发布的《核态势评估》保留了五角大楼的惯用措辞。它说,对攻击的威慑是武器的“根本作用”,而不是唯一目的。
        That left open the possibility that in some circumstances, Washington might decide to strike first with nuclear arms.        这意味着,在某些情况下华盛顿仍有可能决定率先使用核武器进行打击。
        “It’s a muddled message,” said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington. The document “has the fingerprints of the Pentagon” on it, he said, adding that it comes “at time when we should be de-emphasizing the role of nuclear arms.”        “由此传达的讯息是含混不清的,”华盛顿军备控制协会执行董事达里尔·G·金博尔说。他说,这份文件“有五角大楼影响的痕迹”,并补充说,它的发布“正值我们应该淡化核武器作用的时候”。
        The Union of Concerned Scientists, a private group based in Cambridge, Mass., also criticized the new policy statement. “It not only keeps the world on a path of increasing nuclear risk,” said Stephen Young, the group’s senior Washington official, but also in many ways “increases that risk.”        位于马萨诸塞州坎布里奇的私立团体忧思科学家联盟也批评了新的政策声明。该组织驻华盛顿高级官员斯蒂芬·杨说:“这不仅让世界保持在核风险增加的趋势上,”而且从许多方面看本身也在“增加这种风险”。
                
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