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| WASHINGTON — American officials are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan after studying recent naval and air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island, according to current and former officials. |
| 华盛顿——现任和前任官员称，在研究了中国军队最近在台湾举行的海空军演习后，美国官员正在加紧努力在台湾建立大量武器储备。 |
| The exercises showed that China would probably blockade the island as a prelude to any attempted invasion, and Taiwan would have to hold out on its own until the United States or other nations intervened, if they decided to do that, the current and former officials say. |
| 现任和前任官员表示，演习表明，在进行任何入侵尝试之前，中国可能会先封锁该岛，台湾将只能自己坚守，直到美国或其他国家介入——如果它们决定介入的话。 |
| But the effort to transform Taiwan into a weapons depot faces challenges. The United States and its allies have prioritized sending weapons to Ukraine, which is reducing those countries’ stockpiles, and arms makers are reluctant to open new production lines without a steady stream of long-term orders. |
| 但将台湾变成一座武器库的努力面临挑战。美国及其盟国优先向乌克兰运送武器，这些国家的库存正在减少，而武器制造商不愿在没有源源不断的长期订单的情况下开设新的生产线。 |
| And it is unclear how China might respond if the United States accelerates shipments of weapons to Taiwan, a democratic, self-governing island that Beijing claims is Chinese territory. |
| 如果美国加快向台湾运送武器，尚不清楚中国将如何应对。北京声称民主自治岛屿台湾是中国领土。 |
| U.S. officials are determining the quantity and types of weapons sold to Taiwan by quietly telling Taiwanese officials and American arms makers that they will reject orders for some large systems in favor of a greater number of smaller, more mobile weapons. The Biden administration announced on Sept. 2 that it had approved its sixth weapons package for Taiwan — a $1.1 billion sale that includes 60 Harpoon coastal antiship missiles. U.S. officials are also discussing how to streamline the sale-and-delivery process. |
| 美国官员正在确定出售给台湾的武器数量和类型，悄悄告知台湾官员和美国武器制造商，他们将拒绝一些大型武器系统的订单，而是选择更多更小、更灵活的武器。拜登政府于9月2日宣布已批准对台湾的第六个军售一揽子计划——价值11亿美元的武器，其中包括60枚“鱼叉”岸基反舰导弹。美国官员也在讨论如何简化销售和交付流程。 |
| President Biden said last month that the United States is “not encouraging” Taiwan’s independence, adding, “That’s their decision.” Since 1979, Washington has had a policy of reassuring Beijing that it does not support independence. But China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, said in a speech at the Asia Society last month that the United States was undermining that position “by repeated official exchanges and arms sales, including many offensive weapons.” |
| 拜登总统上个月表示，美国“不鼓励”台湾独立，并说“这是台湾自己的决定。”自1979年以来，华盛顿一直采取向北京保证它不支持独立的政策。但中国外交部长王毅上个月在亚洲协会的一次演讲中表示，美国通过“一次次官方往来，不断提升实质关系，一次次售台武器，甚至包括很多进攻性武器”，正在破坏这一立场。 |
| The People’s Liberation Army of China carried out exercises in August with naval ships and fighter jets in zones close to Taiwan. It also fired ballistic missiles into the waters off Taiwan’s coast, four of which went over the island, according to Japan. |
| 中国人民解放军8月在台湾附近地区进行了舰艇和战斗机演习。据日本称，它还向台湾周边海域发射了弹道导弹，其中四枚飞越台湾。 |
| The Chinese military acted after Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House, visited Taiwan. But even before that, U.S. and Taiwanese officials had been more closely examining the potential for an invasion because Russia’s assault on Ukraine had made the possibility seem more real, though Chinese leaders have not explicitly stated a timeline for establishing rule over Taiwan. |
| 中国军方是在众议院议长南希佩洛西访问台湾后采取这些行动的。但即使在此之前，美国和台湾官员一直在更密切地研究入侵的可能性，因为俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击使这种可能性看起来更加真实，尽管中国领导人没有明确说明对在台湾建立统治的时间表。 |
| The United States would not be able to resupply Taiwan as easily as Ukraine because of the lack of ground routes from neighboring countries. The goal now, officials say, is to ensure that Taiwan has enough arms to defend itself until help arrives. Mr. Biden said last month that U.S. troops would defend Taiwan if China were to carry out an “unprecedented attack” on the island — the fourth time he has stated that commitment and a shift from a preference for “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan among U.S. presidents. |
| 由于缺乏从邻国运输的地面路线，美国无法像对乌克兰那样轻松地向台湾提供补给。官员们说，现在的目标是确保台湾有足够的武器自卫，能够支撑到援助到来。拜登上个月表示，如果中国要对台湾进行“前所未有的攻击”，美国军队将保卫台湾——这是他第四次表明这一承诺，偏离了美国历届总统对台湾的“战略模糊”策略。 |
| “Stockpiling in Taiwan is a very active point of discussion,” said Jacob Stokes, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security who advised Mr. Biden on Asia policy when he was vice president. “And if you have it, how do you harden it and how do you disperse it so Chinese missiles can’t destroy it?” |
| “在台湾储备武器是一个非常活跃的议题，”新美国安全中心的研究员雅各布·斯托克斯说，他是拜登担任副总统期间的亚洲政策顾问。“如果你有储备，你如何加固它，如何分配它，使中国导弹无法摧毁它？” |
| “The view is we need to lengthen the amount of time Taiwan can hold out on its own,” he added. “That’s how you avoid China picking the low-hanging fruit of its ‘fait accompli’ strategy — that they’ve won the day before we’ve gotten there, that is assuming we intervene.” |
| “人们的观点是，我们需要延长台湾可以独立支撑的时间，”他还说。“这样做以避免中国采取最容易执行的‘既成事实’战略——他们在我们到达的前一天取胜，假设我们进行干预的话。” |
| U.S. officials increasingly emphasize Taiwan’s need for smaller, mobile weapons that can be lethal against Chinese warships and jets while being able to evade attacks, which is central to so-called asymmetric warfare. |
| 美国官员越来越强调台湾需要更小、机动性更高的武器，这些武器可以对中国军舰和战机造成致命打击，同时能够躲避攻击，这对于所谓的不对称战争至关重要。 |
| “Shoot-and-scoot” types of armaments are popular with the Ukrainian military, which has used shoulder-fired Javelin and NLAW antitank guided missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles effectively against Russian forces. Recently, the Ukrainians have pummeled Russian troops with mobile American-made rocket launchers known as HIMARS. |
| “打带跑式”武器在乌克兰军队中很受欢迎，他们使用肩扛式“标枪”和NLAW反坦克导弹以及“毒刺”防空导弹有效地对抗俄罗斯军队。最近，乌克兰人用高机动性的美制火箭发射器HIMARS袭击了俄罗斯军队。 |
| To transform Taiwan into a “porcupine,” an entity bristling with armaments that would be costly to attack, American officials have been trying to steer Taiwanese counterparts toward ordering more of those weapons and fewer systems for a conventional ground war like M1 Abrams tanks. |
| 为了将台湾变成“豪猪”——一个配备大量武器且攻击成本高昂的实体——美国官员一直试图引导台湾官员订购更多此类武器，减少订购像M1艾布拉姆斯坦克这样的用于常规地面战的武器系统。 |
| Pentagon and State Department officials have also been speaking regularly about these issues since March with American arms companies, including at an industry conference on Taiwan this week in Richmond, Va. Jedidiah Royal, a Defense Department official, said in a speech there that the Pentagon was helping Taiwan build out systems for “an island defense against an aggressor with conventional overmatch.” |
| 自3月以来，五角大楼和国务院官员也经常与美国军火公司就这些问题进行谈话，包括本周在弗吉尼亚州里士满举行的一次关于台湾的产业会议上。国防部官员杰迪代亚·罗亚尔在演讲中表示，五角大楼正在帮助台湾建立“岛屿防御系统，以对抗具有常规力量优势的侵略者”。 |
| In a recent article, James Timbie, a former State Department official, and James O. Ellis Jr., a retired U.S. Navy admiral, said Taiwan needs “a large number of small things” for distributed defense, and that some of Taiwan’s recent purchases from the United States, including Harpoon and Stinger missiles, fit that bill. Taiwan also produces its own deterrent weapons, including minelayer ships, air defense missile systems and antiship cruise missiles. |
| 在最近的一篇文章中，前国务院官员詹姆斯·蒂姆比和美国退役海军上将小詹姆斯·O·埃利斯表示，台湾需要“大量小武器”来进行分布式防御，而台湾最近购买的一些来自美国的“鱼叉”和“毒刺”导弹符合这一要求。台湾也自主生产威慑武器，包括布雷舰、防空导弹系统和反舰巡航导弹。 |
| They said Taiwan needs to shift resources away from “expensive, high-profile conventional systems” that China can easily destroy in an initial attack, though some of those systems, notably F-16 jets, are useful for countering ongoing Chinese fighter jet and ship activities in “gray zone” airspace and waters. The authors also wrote that “the effective defense of Taiwan” will require stockpiling ammunition, fuel and other supplies, as well as strategic reserves of energy and food. |
| 他们认为，台湾不要再把资源投入到中国可以在初始攻击中轻易摧毁的“昂贵而引人注目的常规系统”之上，尽管其中一些系统——特别是F-16战斗机——可以在对抗正活动于“灰色地带”的空域和水域的中国战斗机和舰艇时派上用场。两位作者还写道，“台湾进行有效防御”将需要储存弹药、燃料和其他物资，并保证能源和粮食的战略储备。 |
| Officials in the administration of Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, say they recognize the need to stockpile smaller weapons but point out that there are significant lags between orders and shipments. |
| 台湾总统蔡英文手下的官员表示，他们承认有必要储备小型武器，但指出订单和发货之间存在明显的滞后。 |
| “I think we’re moving in a high degree of consensus in terms of our priorities on the asymmetric strategy, but the speed does have to be accelerated,” Bi-khim Hsiao, the de facto Taiwanese ambassador in Washington, said in an interview. |
| “我认为，就我们在不对称战略上的优先事项而言，我们正在取得高度的共识，但速度确实必须再加快，”实际上的台湾驻美大使萧美琴在一次采访中表示。 |
| Some American lawmakers have called for faster and more robust deliveries. Several senior senators are trying to push through the proposed Taiwan Policy Act, which would provide $6.5 billion in security assistance to Taiwan over the next four years and mandate treating the island as if it were a “major non-NATO ally.” |
| 一些美国议员呼吁更迅速和稳固的武器交付。几位资深参议员正试图推动拟议中的《台湾政策法》，该法案将在未来四年向台湾提供价值65亿美元的安全援助，并要求将该岛屿视为“重要的非北约盟友”。 |
| But Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in an interview that weapons makers want to see predictability in orders before committing to building up production. Arms directors from the United States and more than 40 other nations met last week in Brussels to discuss long-term supply and production issues. |
| 但北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格在接受采访时表示，武器制造商希望在承诺增产之前确定订单的可预测性。来自美国和其他40多个国家的军备主管上周在布鲁塞尔举行会议，讨论了长期供应和生产问题。 |
| If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American officials would probably study which avenue of resupplying Taiwan — by sea or by air — would offer the least likelihood of bringing Chinese and American ships, aircraft and submarines into direct conflict. |
| 如果中国决定围绕台湾建立海上封锁，美国官员可能会研究以何种方式对台提供补给——通过海上还是空中——才能最大程度地避免美中舰船、战机和潜艇发生直接冲突。 |
| One proposition would involve sending U.S. cargo planes with supplies from bases in Japan and Guam to Taiwan’s east coast. That way, any Chinese fighters trying to shoot them down would have to fly over Taiwan and risk being downed by Taiwanese warplanes. |
| 其中一项提议涉及从日本和关岛的美军基地向台湾东岸派遣装载补给的美国运输机。这样一来，任何试图击落这些飞机的中国战机都必须飞越台湾，并有被台湾战机击落的风险。 |
| “The sheer amount of materiel that would likely be needed in case of war is formidable, and getting them through would be difficult, though may be doable,” said Eric Wertheim, a defense consultant and author of “The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World.” “The question is: How much risk is China and the White House willing to take in terms of enforcing or breaking through a blockade, respectively, and can it be sustained?” |
| “一旦爆发战争，可能需要的物资量是十分巨大的，尽管或许可行，但运送这些物资将是困难的，”美国国防顾问、《美国海军学院世界舰队指南》作者埃里克·韦尔特海姆说。“问题在于：中国和白宫各自愿为实施和突破封锁承担多大风险，以及此种状态能持续多久？” |
| China has probably studied the strategic failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, and the United States should continue to send the kinds of arms to Taiwan that will make either an amphibious invasion or an attack with long-range weapons much more difficult for China. |
| 他表示，中国可能已经研究了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的失策，而美国应该继续向台湾运送这类武器，让中国进行两栖入侵或远程武器攻击变得更困难。 |
| “The Chinese naval officers I’ve spoken to in years past have said they fear the humiliation that would result from any kind of failure, and this of course has the effect of them being less likely to take action if there is an increased risk of failure,” Mr. Wertheim said. “In essence, the success the Ukrainians are having is a message to the Chinese.” |
| “过去几年与我交谈过的中国海军官员都曾表示，他们担忧任何失败都会带来的耻辱，这当然会导致他们在失败风险增加的情况下更不愿意采取行动，”韦尔特海姆说。“从本质上说，乌克兰人的成功就是向中国人传达的信息。” |
| Officials in the Biden administration are trying to gauge what moves would deter China without actually provoking greater military action. |
| 拜登政府官员正试图评估何种举措能在不引发更大规模军事行动的情况下威慑中国。 |
| Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor of government at Cornell University who worked on China policy this past year in the State Department, wrote on Twitter that Mr. Biden’s recent remarks committing U.S. troops to defending Taiwan were “dangerous.” She said in an interview that pursuing the porcupine strategy enhances deterrence but that taking what she deems symbolic steps on Taiwan’s diplomatic status does not. |
| 去年在国务院从事中国政策研究的康奈尔大学政府学教授白洁曦(Jessica Chen Weiss)在Twitter上写道，拜登近来承诺让美军保卫台湾的言论是“危险的”。她在接受采访时表示，奉行豪猪战略可以增强威慑，但就台湾外交地位采取在她看来只有象征意义的举措则没有意义。 |
| “The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn’t have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China,” she said. |
| “美国必须明确的一点是，让台湾与中国大陆永久分离对美不具有战略利益，”她说。 |
| But other former U.S. officials praise Mr. Biden’s forceful statements, saying greater “strategic clarity” bolsters deterrence. |
| 但其他前美国官员还在赞美拜登的强硬宣言，称更多“战略明确”可以增加威慑。 |
| “President Biden has said now four times that we would defend Taiwan, but each time he says it someone walks it back,” said Harry B. Harris Jr., a retired admiral who served as commander of U.S. Pacific Command and ambassador to South Korea. “And I think that makes us as a nation look weak because who’s running this show? I mean, is it the president or is it his advisers? |
| “拜登总统如今已经四次表示我们会保卫台湾，但他每次这么说，都有人把话圆回来，”曾担任美国太平洋司令部司令兼驻韩大使的退役海军上将小哈里·B·哈里斯说道。“我想，这让我们作为一个国家显得软弱，因为到底是谁说了算？我的意思是，到底是总统还是他的顾问说了算？” |
| “So maybe we should take him at his word,” Admiral Harris added. “Maybe he is serious about defending Taiwan.” |
| “所以也许我们应该相信他的话，”哈里斯又说。“也许他是真要保卫台湾。” |
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