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关于北溪天然气管道泄漏,我们目前所知道的
Mysterious Blasts and Gas Leaks: What We Know About the Pipeline Breaks in Europe

来源:纽约时报    2022-09-29 03:29



        Early this week, three separate leaks were discovered in two giant natural gas pipelines from Russia. The pipelines were filled with the fuel, and the ruptures produced gas bubbles half a mile wide that rose to the surface of the Baltic Sea, near the Danish island of Bornholm.        本周早些时候,始于俄罗斯的两条巨型天然气管道分别发现了三个泄漏点。管道中充满燃料,破裂产生了宽度达800米的气泡,上浮到丹麦博恩霍尔姆岛附近的波罗的海表面。
        Explosions had been detected nearby just before the leaks occurred, and European governments have not yet identified the cause of the leaks in the pipelines, known as Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. Political leaders in Europe and the United States have suggested that the incident was an act of sabotage.        就在泄漏发生前,附近检测到了爆炸,而欧洲各国政府尚未确定被称为北溪一号和北溪二号管道泄漏的原因。欧洲和美国的政治领导人表示,这是一起蓄意破坏行为。
        Speculation has pointed to Russia, whose state-controlled energy company, Gazprom, is the main owner of the pipelines. A spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Dmitri S. Peskov, dismissed allegations of Russian involvement as “stupid” and pointed a finger at the United States.        相关猜测指向俄罗斯,该国的国有能源公司俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(下称俄气公司)是这些管道的主要所有者。俄罗斯总统普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫驳斥了有关俄罗斯参与的指控,称其“愚蠢”,并将矛头指向美国。
        The situation bears the hallmarks of a spy thriller. But analysts say that damaging the pipelines could be a significant escalation in the proxy energy war that has been waged since fighting began in Ukraine — a battle that could have serious consequences for millions of homes and businesses throughout Europe. Indeed, whoever damaged the pipelines may have meant to show Europeans that “nowhere is safe,” said Helima Croft, the head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.        目前的事态就像一部间谍惊悚片。但是分析人士说,破坏管道可能是乌克兰战争开始以来一直在进行的能源代理战争的一次重大升级,这场战争可能对整个欧洲成百上千万家庭和企业产生严重后果。加拿大皇家银行资本市场大宗商品策略主管海利马·克罗夫特说,实际上,无论是谁破坏了管道,可能都是想向欧洲人表明,“没有什么地方是安全的。”
        The damaged pipelines are critical links between Russia and Western Europe.        受损的管道是俄罗斯和西欧之间的重要连接。
        The two major lines were built to bring gas under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.        这两条主要管道是为了从波罗的海海底将俄罗斯的天然气输送到德国。
        Nord Stream 1, which began operating in 2011, was until recently the main conduit for bringing gas to Germany — enough to supply more than half of the country’s annual consumption and still pass some along to its neighbors. The pipeline is roughly 760 miles long, most of it underwater.        直到前不久,自2011年开始运营的北溪一号一直是向德国输送天然气的主要管道,足以供应该国超过一半的年消耗量,还将一部分输送给邻国。这条管道长约1223公里,大部分在水下。
        Construction was completed last year on the second line, Nord Stream 2, which was intended to double those flows, providing a big, modern line into northwest Europe. But it never became fully operational: The German government shelved the project in February, just as Russia began to invade Ukraine.        第二条线路北溪二号的建设于去年完成,其目的是将运输量增加一倍,为燃气进入欧洲西北部提供一条现代化的大型线路。但它始终没有全面投入使用:今年2月,就在俄罗斯开始入侵乌克兰之际,德国政府搁置了这个项目。
        Even though European countries have cut back their consumption of natural gas in response to high prices and entreaties from their governments, the fuel remains of vital importance for heating homes and keeping businesses running.        尽管欧洲国家为了应对高价格和政府的恳求,减少了天然气的消费,但这种燃料对家庭取暖和维持企业运转仍然至关重要。
        Neither pipeline was actively transporting gas at the time of the incidents. Gazprom has recently throttled back Nord Stream 1, citing technical issues. Critics have dismissed the action as political maneuvering by Russia as the fighting in Ukraine drags on.        事故发生时,这两条管道都没有在大量输送天然气。俄气公司最近以技术问题为由缩减了北溪一号的流量。批评人士认为,随着乌克兰战事的持续,此举是俄罗斯的政治手段。
        The leaks may help Russia by pushing energy prices higher.        泄漏可能会推高能源价格,从而给俄罗斯带来好处。
        In some respects, disrupting the pipelines serves little immediate purpose for anyone.        从某些方面来说,破坏石油管道对任何方面来说都没有直接的意义。
        And, on the surface, it is unclear why Moscow would seek to damage installations that cost Gazprom billions of dollars to build and maintain. The leaks are expected to delay any possibility of receiving revenue from fuel going through the pipes.        而且,表面上暂时看不出莫斯科为什么会想要破坏俄气公司花费数十亿美元建造和维护的设施。预计泄漏事件将推迟一切通过管道输送燃料的可能收入。
        On the other hand, the natural gas market is spooked, which helps Russia by raising the price of its gas. On Monday, prices for European gas futures had fallen by nearly half from their high in August. After news of the leaks, they rose nearly 20 percent to about 205 euros (or $191) per megawatt-hour, roughly five times the level of a year ago.        另一方面,天然气市场受到惊吓,有助于俄罗斯提高天然气价格。周一,欧洲天然气期货价格较8月份的高点下跌了近一半。在泄漏消息传出后,价格上涨了近20%,达到每兆瓦时约205欧元(约合人民币1430元),大约是一年前的五倍。
        After months of increases and volatility, energy markets had recently begun to settle down as optimism grew that Europe could avoid shortages this winter by finding alternative supplies and filling gas storage facilities.        在经历了数月的上涨和波动后,能源市场最近开始稳定下来,因为人们越来越乐观,认为欧洲可以通过寻找替代供应和填充天然气储存设施,避免今年冬天的短缺。
        The ruptures could also be a reminder from Moscow that if European countries keep up their support for Ukraine, they risk sabotage to vital energy infrastructure. Experts have warned for years of the danger posed by potential attacks. According to analysts, any disruption could spell trouble because European countries that have been dependent on Russian gas, like Germany and Austria, have little margin for error.        这些破裂也可能是莫斯科的提醒:如果欧洲国家继续支持乌克兰,重要的能源基础设施可能会遭到破坏。多年来,专家们一直就潜在袭击带来的危险提出警告。分析人士表示,任何中断都可能带来麻烦,因为德国和奥地利等一直依赖俄罗斯天然气的欧洲国家几乎没有出错的余地。
        Over the last year, Gazprom and Russia have taken steps like altering the flows on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which analysts say were intended to raise political tensions and energy prices.        在过去的一年里,俄气公司和俄罗斯政府采取了一些措施,比如改变北溪一号管道的流量,分析人士说,这些措施意在加剧政治紧张局势和能源价格。
        This incident has sent a chill through the markets because it highlights that a “risk of disruption” to pipelines not controlled by Russia exists, said Massimo Di Odoardo, the vice president for gas research at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm.        能源咨询公司伍德麦肯齐负责天然气研究的副总裁马西莫·迪·奥多尔多说,这起事件令市场感到不寒而栗,因为它凸显出不受俄罗斯控制的管道存在“中断的风险”。
        The environmental impact appears alarming.        对环境的影响令人担忧
        The damaged pipelines are spewing natural gas, which largely consists of methane, a central contributor to global warming.        受损的管道正在喷出天然气,其中主要是甲烷,这种气体是全球变暖的主要原因。
        As of Wednesday, more than half of the fuel that was in the pipelines had leaked out, according to Kristoffer Böttzauw, the head of the Danish Energy Agency. By Sunday, it could all be gone.        据丹麦能源署局长克里斯托弗·博特绍夫说,截至周三,管道中超过一半的燃料已经泄漏。到周日可能会全部泄漏完。
        The toll from the leaks could amount to the equivalent of 32 percent of Denmark’s annual emissions, Mr. Böttzauw said, adding, “There is a significant climate impact because methane is many times more damaging to the climate than CO2.”        博特绍夫说,泄漏造成的损失可能相当于丹麦年排放量的32%,他还说,“这对气候有重大影响,因为甲烷对气候的破坏比二氧化碳大很多倍。”
        Antoine Rostand, a co-founder of Kayrros, which uses satellites to track methane leaks from oil wells and gas processing facilities, estimated that the damaged pipelines had released an amount comparable to one day of methane emissions by the oil and gas industry globally.        Kayrros公司利用卫星追踪油井和天然气处理设施的甲烷泄漏,该公司联合创始人安托万·罗斯坦德估计,受损管道释放的甲烷量相当于全球油气行业一天的甲烷排放量。
        Scientists hope that the gas, which is rushing to the surface and dispersing into the atmosphere, will not have a major impact on animal and plant life in the waters around the leak.        科学家们希望,正在冲向海面并扩散到大气中的气体不会对泄漏附近水域的动植物产生重大影响。
        The damage points to explosive devices.        破坏原因指向爆炸装置。
        The pipelines are built of steel coated with concrete so that they can withstand underwater pressures. In other words, it takes a lot of force to damage them.        管道由涂有混凝土的钢铁建造,因此可以承受水下压力。换句话说,破坏它们需要很大的力量。
        “A gas leak of this nature is extremely rare,” Mr. Böttzauw said. “It is unlikely that three gas leaks would occur in one accident within 24 hours.”        “这种性质的气体泄漏极其罕见,”博特绍夫说。“不太可能在24小时内的一次性发生三处气体泄漏。”
        Swedish seismologists on Monday detected two separate underwater explosions near where the leaks were later identified. Both lines of Nord Stream 1 were damaged, whereas only one of Nord Stream 2’s lines was ruptured, which means that, at least theoretically, gas could flow through the second line.        瑞典地震学家周一在后来发现泄漏的地方附近检测到两次互无关联的水下爆炸。北溪一号的两条管道都受到了破坏,北溪二号只有一条管道破裂,这意味着,至少在理论上,天然气可以通过第二条管道流动。
        Hans Liwang, a professor at the Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden, said examining the size of the crater on the seabed and the damage to the pipes could provide answers about the size of the explosive charge and the locations of the blasts.        瑞典皇家理工学院教授汉斯·立旺表示,通过检查海底坑的大小和管道的损坏程度,可以发现炸药大小和爆炸地点。
        “We will probably be able to figure out where this explosive device was placed by looking at the traces on the bottom,” he told Sweden’s Svenska Dagbladet newspaper.        他对《瑞典日报》表示:“通过观察底部的痕迹,我们或许能够确定爆炸装置放在哪里。”
        But he added that leaking gas might have blown away important evidence, especially if, as some have speculated, the sabotage was carried out using underwater drones or divers.        但他还说,泄漏的气体可能会吹走重要证据,特别是如果像一些人猜测的那样,破坏活动是使用无人潜航器或潜水员进行的。
        Danish authorities said on Wednesday that a criminal investigation was underway to determine the cause of the rupture. Once that is complete, it is unclear how long it will take to repair the damage.        丹麦当局周三表示,正在进行刑事调查,以确定破裂原因。目前尚不清楚调查结束后,修复损失需要多长时间。
        An official at a pipe-laying company in Europe said work could proceed only after safe conditions had been established, including by removing any gas or seawater from the pipeline.        欧洲一家管道铺设公司的一名官员表示,只有在建立安全的环境(包括从管道中清除任何气体或海水)之后,工作才能继续进行。
        Western sanctions placed on Russia may also complicate the cleanup and repair efforts because contractors may not want to do the work. In addition, Gazprom is no longer honoring business commitments and contracts, so it is not clear who would pay the costs.        西方对俄罗斯的制裁也可能使清理和修复工作复杂化,因为承包商可能不想做这项工作。此外,俄气公司不再履行商业承诺和合同,所以目前还不清楚将由谁支付费用。
        Other pipelines to Europe may be vulnerable.        其他通往欧洲的管道也可能受攻击。
        Even though Russia has throttled its exports, its natural gas is still flowing to Europe through Ukraine and other pipelines. If the war in Ukraine continues to go badly for Moscow, Gazprom could turn up the pressure by reducing these supplies.        尽管俄罗斯已经限制了天然气出口,但该国的天然气仍在通过乌克兰和其他管道流向欧洲。如果乌克兰的战争继续对莫斯科不利,俄气公司可能会通过减少这些供应来加大压力。
        A web of other pipelines from Algeria, Libya and Azerbaijan all sustain the economies of European countries and could be vulnerable to sabotage along their vast lengths. Whatever actor hit the Nord Stream pipelines might have been sending a message to Norway, which has replaced Russia as the large supplier of pipeline gas to the European Union. Norway is also a critical provider of gas to Britain.        来自阿尔及利亚、利比亚和阿塞拜疆的其他管道网络都支撑着欧洲国家的经济,而且它们漫长的管道很容易受到破坏。无论是谁袭击了北溪管道,都可能是在向挪威传递信息。挪威已经取代俄罗斯,成为向欧盟输送管道天然气的最大供应国。挪威也是英国天然气的重要供应国。
        It may not be a coincidence that a conduit from Norway to Poland known as the Baltic Pipe was opened on Tuesday. It was conceived to ease Warsaw’s dependence on Russia and passes close to where the leaks are.        从挪威到波兰的“波罗的海管道”于周二开通,这可能不是巧合。这条管道是为了缓解华沙对俄罗斯的依赖而设计的,离此次泄漏的地方不远。
        Russia has attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the war.        俄罗斯在战争期间袭击了乌克兰的能源基础设施。
        Energy has become a battleground in the war over Ukraine. Mr. Putin has already shown that he is willing to junk business relationships with countries like Germany, which required decades to establish, in hopes of bending them to his will.        能源已成为乌克兰战争中的一个战场。普京已经表明,他将不惜抛弃与德国等国建立了几十年的商业关系,以期让这些国家服从他的意愿。
        And, as the fighting has progressed, energy infrastructure in Ukraine has been repeatedly targeted by Russia.        而且,随着战斗的进行,乌克兰的能源基础设施一再成为俄罗斯的目标。
        After losing ground to a Ukrainian offensive this month, Russia unleashed a flurry of rocket and missile attacks on Ukrainian electrical power plants and the country’s electrical grid. Also this month, a Russian missile struck just over 300 yards from the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, according to the Ukrainian state nuclear power company, Energoatom.        在本月被乌克兰的攻势击败后,俄罗斯对乌克兰的发电厂和电网发动了一系列火箭和导弹袭击。同样是在本月,据乌克兰国家核能公司能源原子称,一枚俄罗斯导弹击中了距离南乌克兰核电站仅270多米的地方。
        Throughout the summer, Ukrainian officials accused the Russian Army of targeting a stretch of high-tension electrical power lines connecting another nuclear complex, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, to the Ukrainian electrical grid. They said the motive had been to deprive Ukraine of the plant’s electrical power.        这个夏天,乌克兰官员一直在指责俄军在攻击连接另一个核设施扎波里日亚核电站和乌克兰电网的一段高压电线。他们表示,此举的动机是令乌克兰无法从该核电站获得电力供应。
        Attacking pipelines could be another step along this road to energy warfare. “It is clearly an escalation of the conflict that is really scary,” said Mr. Rostand, the chief executive of Kayrros.        对输送管道的攻击,可能是这场能源战的又一动作。“这显然是冲突的升级,真的非常可怕,”Kayrros的首席执行官罗斯坦德说。
                
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