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| Chinese factories were shuttered again in late August, a frequent occurrence in a country that has imposed intermittent lockdowns to fight the coronavirus. But this time, the culprit was not the pandemic. Instead, a record-setting drought crippled economic activity across southwestern China, freezing international supply chains for automobiles, electronics and other goods that have been routinely disrupted over the past three years. |
| 中国的工厂今年8月下旬再度停工。由于中国为遏制新冠病毒不时采取封控措施，工厂停工已司空见惯。但是这一次，罪魁祸首不是新冠病毒大流行，而是创纪录的干旱导致中国西南地区经济活动停顿，使得在过去三年里经常被扰乱的汽车、电子器件和其他商品的国际供应链中断。 |
| Such interruptions could soon become more frequent for companies that source parts and products from around the world as climate change, and the extreme weather events that accompany it, continue to disrupt the global delivery system for goods in highly unpredictable ways, economists and trade experts warn. |
| 由于气候变化以及随之而来的极端天气事件继续以高度不可预测的方式扰乱全球商品运输系统，经济学家和贸易专家警告说，从世界各地购进零部件和产品的公司，可能会在不久的未来面临更为频繁的供应链中断问题。 |
| Much remains unknown about how the world’s rapid warming will affect agriculture, economic activity and trade in the coming decades. But one clear trend is that natural disasters like droughts, hurricanes and wildfires are becoming more frequent and unfolding in more locations. In addition to the toll of human injury and death, these disasters are likely to wreak sporadic havoc on global supply chains, exacerbating the shortages, delayed deliveries and higher prices that have frustrated businesses and consumers. |
| 世界快速变暖将如何影响未来几十年的农业、经济活动和贸易仍有许多未知数。但一个明显的趋势是，干旱、飓风和野火等自然灾害正变得越来越频繁，也正在更多的地方发生。除了造成人员伤亡外，这些灾难还可能对全球供应链造成时不时的破坏，加剧令企业和消费者感到沮丧的短缺、交货推迟和价格上涨问题。 |
| “What we just went through with Covid is a window to what climate could do,” said Kyle Meng, an associate professor at the Bren School of Environmental Science and Management and the department of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. |
| “我们在新冠病毒大流行中经历过的问题是一个窗口，让我们可以看到气候变化将会带来什么，”加州大学圣巴巴拉分校经济系和布伦环境科学与管理学院的副教授凯尔·孟（音）说。 |
| The supply chains that have stretched around the world in recent decades are studies in modern efficiency, whizzing products like electronics, chemicals, couches and food across continents and oceans at ever-cheaper costs. |
| 最近几十年里延伸到世界各地的供应链是现代效率的典范，电子器件、化学制品、沙发和食品等产品快速跨越大洲和海洋，成本越来越低。 |
| But those networks proved fragile, first during the pandemic and then as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with companies struggling to source their goods amid factory and port shutdowns. With products in short supply, prices have spiked, fueling rapid inflation worldwide. |
| 但这些供应链网络被证明是脆弱的，先是在大流行期间，然后是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，随着工厂停工、港口关闭，许多公司在购进商品上遇到困难。产品供不应求，导致价格飙升，助长了全球范围内的快速通货膨胀。 |
| The drought in southwestern China has also had ripple effects for global businesses. It drastically reduced hydropower production in the region, requiring power cuts to factories and scrambling supply chains for electronics, car parts and other goods. Volkswagen and Toyota curtailed production at nearby factories, as did Foxconn, which produces electronics, and CATL, a manufacturer of batteries for electric cars. |
| 中国西南地区的干旱也给全球企业带来了连锁反应。干旱大幅减少了该地区的水力发电量，迫使政府对工厂采取限电措施，扰乱了电子器件、汽车零部件和其他商品的供应链。大众汽车和丰田汽车减少了附近地区工厂的产量，制造电子产品的富士康和制造电动汽车电池的宁德时代也是如此。 |
| The Yangtze River, which bisects China, dipped so low that the oceangoing vessels that typically traverse its upper reaches from the rainy summer into early winter could no longer run. |
| 横贯中国的长江的水位降至极低，以至于通常从夏季雨季到初冬期间能够一直驶到长江上游的远洋船只无法通行。 |
| Companies had to scramble to secure trucks to move their goods to Chinese ports, while China’s food importers hunted for more trucks and trains to carry their cargo into the country’s interior. The heat and drought have wilted many of the vegetables in southwestern China, causing prices to nearly double, and have made it hard for the surviving pigs and poultry to put on weight, driving up meat prices. |
| 公司不得不仓促寻找卡车，将货物运到中国的港口，同时，中国的食品进口商则寻找更多的卡车和火车车皮，将它们的货物运往内陆地区。高温和干旱使中国西南地区菜田里的许多蔬菜枯萎，导致蔬菜价格上涨了近一倍，也使猪和家禽的饲料不足，推高了肉价。 |
| Recent rainfall allowed power to be temporarily restored to houses and businesses in western China. But drought persists across much of central and western China, and reservoirs remain at a third of their usual level. |
| 虽然最近的降雨使中国西南地区居民和企业的电力供应暂时恢复，但干旱仍在中部和西部的大部分地区持续，水库的蓄水量仍然只有平时的三分之一。 |
| That means less water not only for hydropower but also for the region’s chemical factories and coal-fired power plants, which need huge quantities of water for cooling. |
| 这不仅意味着水力发电的水量不足，也意味着这些地方需要大量冷却水的化工厂和燃煤电厂缺水。 |
| China even resorted to using drones to seed clouds with silver iodide in an attempt to trigger more rain, said Zhao Zhiqiang, the deputy director of the Weather Modification Center of the China Meteorological Administration, at a news conference on Tuesday. |
| 中国为试图引发更多的降雨，甚至采取用无人机在云层中播撒碘化银的方法，中国气象局人工影响天气中心副主任赵志强在周二的新闻发布会上说。 |
| At the same time, the coronavirus, and China’s insistence on a zero-Covid policy, continue to pose supply chain risks by restricting movement in significant portions of the country. Last Thursday, Chinese authorities locked down Chengdu, a city of more than 21 million in southwestern China, to clamp down on coronavirus outbreaks. |
| 与此同时，新冠病毒加上中国坚持新冠清零政策的做法，限制了中国大部分地区的人员和物资流动，继续对供应链构成风险。上周四，中国当局为遏制新冠病毒疫情，对人口逾2100万的西南部城市成都进行了封控。 |
| These frequent disruptions in Chinese manufacturing and logistics have added to concerns among global executives and policymakers that many of the world’s factories are far too geographically concentrated, which leaves them vulnerable to pandemics and natural disasters. |
| 中国制造业和物流的这些频繁扰乱令全球高管和政策制定者更加担心，世界上许多工厂的地理位置过于集中，这使它们容易受大流行病和自然灾害的影响。 |
| The Biden administration, in a plan released Tuesday outlining how the United States intends to bolster its semiconductor industry, said the current concentration of chip-makers in Southeast Asia had left the industry vulnerable to disruptions from climate change, as well as pandemics and war. |
| 拜登政府在周二发布的一份计划中概述了美国打算如何支持国内的半导体行业，计划说，目前集中在东南亚地区的芯片制造商，让半导体行业易受气候变化、大流行病和战争的干扰。 |
| But setting up factories in other parts of the world to offset those risks could be costly, for both businesses and the consumers whom companies will pass their costs on to in the form of higher prices. Just as the pandemic has resulted in higher prices for consumers, Mr. Meng said, so could climate change, particularly if extreme weather affects large areas of the world at the same time. |
| 但为抵消这些风险在世界其他地区建工厂，可能会给企业带来更高的成本，并令企业把更高的成本转嫁给消费者，导致消费者面临价格上涨。正如新冠病毒大流行已导致消费者价格上涨一样，凯尔·孟说，气候变化也会导致物价上涨，尤其是如果极端天气同时影响到世界上的大片地区。 |
| Companies could also face new costs from carbon taxes when shipping goods across borders, as well as higher transport costs for moving products by sea or air, experts say. Both ocean and airfreight are major producers of the gases contributing to climate change, accounting for about 5 percent of global carbon emissions. Companies in both sectors are quickly trying to find cleaner sources of fuel, but that transition is likely to require big investments that could drive up prices for their customers. |
| 企业在跨境运输货物时还可能面临新的碳税成本，以及产品海运或空运的更高运输成本，专家们说。海运和空运都排放大量导致气候变化的气体，约占全球总碳排放量的5%。这两个行业的企业都在加速寻找更清洁的燃料来源，但改变燃料可能需要大量投资，因此可能会推高客户面临的价格。 |
| Natural disasters and coronavirus lockdowns in China have been particularly painful, given that the country is home to much of the world’s manufacturing. But the United States has also felt the rising impacts from extreme weather. |
| 由于中国是世界上大部分制造业的所在地，中国的自然灾害和新冠病毒导致的封控尤其令人痛苦。但美国也受到了极端天气带来的日益严重的影响。 |
| A multiyear drought in much of the Western United States has weighed on American agricultural exports. West Coast wildfires have jumbled logistics for companies like Amazon. Winter storms and power outages shut down semiconductor plants in Texas last year, adding to global chip shortages. |
| 美国西部大部分地区持续多年的干旱影响了美国的农产品出口。西海岸的野火给亚马逊等公司的物流制造了混乱。去年冬季的风暴和停电曾导致得克萨斯州的半导体工厂停工，加剧了全球的芯片短缺。 |
| White House economists warned in a report this year that climate change would make future disruptions of the global supply chains more common, citing research showing that the global frequency of natural disasters had increased almost threefold in recent decades. |
| 白宫经济学家在今年的一份报告中警告说，气候变化将使未来的全球供应链中断变得更常见，报告引用的研究称，近几十年来，全球自然灾害的发生频率几乎增加了三倍。 |
| “As networks become more connected, and climate change worsens, the frequency and size of supply-chain-related disasters rises,” the report said. |
| “随着世界各地的联系变得更加紧密，气候变化的后果恶化，与供应链有关的灾难的发生频率和规模也在增加，”报告说。 |
| The National Centers for Environmental Information, a federal agency, estimates that the number of billion-dollar disasters taking place in the United States each year has skyrocketed to an average of 20 in the last two years, including severe storms, cyclones and floods. In the 1980s, there were only about three per year. |
| 美国国家环境信息中心估计，在过去两年里，美国发生的造成数十亿美元损失的灾难（包括严重的风暴、飓风和洪水）数量已猛增至年均20起。在20世纪80年代，每年只发生大约三起这种灾难。 |
| Academics say the effect of these disasters, and of higher temperatures in general, will be particularly obvious when it comes to food trade. Some parts of the world, like Russia, Scandinavia and Canada, could produce more grains and other food crops to feed countries as global temperatures rise. |
| 学者们说，这些灾难以及总体温度升高的影响，在涉及粮食贸易时将特别明显。随着全球气温上升，世界上一些地区，如俄罗斯、斯堪的纳维亚和加拿大，将能为养活各国生产更多的谷物和其他粮食作物。 |
| But those centers of production would be farther from hotter and more densely populated areas closer to the Equator. Some of those regions may struggle even more than they do now with poverty and food insecurity. |
| 但这些粮食生产中心远离靠近赤道更热、人口更稠密的地区。后者的一些国家在应对贫困和粮食不安全问题上可能会比现在更加困难。 |
| One danger is that increasing competition for food could encourage countries to introduce protectionist policies that restrict or stop the export of food, as some have done in response to the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These export restrictions allow a country to feed its own population, but tend to exacerbate international shortages and push up food prices, further aggravating the problem. |
| 一个危险是，食品竞争的加剧可能会鼓动各国采取限制或禁止粮食出口的保护主义政策，一些国家在应对新冠病毒大流行和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时已经这样做过。限制粮食出口会让国家能养活本国人口，但往往会加剧国际上的短缺，推高粮食价格，让问题进一步恶化。 |
| The World Trade Organization, citing the damage that protectionist policies could pose, has urged countries to keep trade open to combat the negative effects of climate change. |
| 世界贸易组织以保护主义政策可能造成的损害为由，敦促各国为应对气候变化的负面影响，保持开放贸易。 |
| In a 2018 report, the W.T.O. pointed out that the global food trade was particularly vulnerable to disruptions in transportation that might occur as a result of climate change, like rising sea levels threatening ports or extreme weather degrading roads and bridges. More than half of globally traded grains pass through at least one of 14 global “choke points,” including the Panama Canal, the Strait of Malacca or the Black Sea rail network, the report said. |
| 世贸组织在2018年的一份报告中指出，全球粮食贸易尤其易受气候变化可能导致的运输中断的影响，比如海平面上升给港口带来威胁，或极端天气给道路和桥梁造成破坏。报告说，全球超过一半的谷物贸易需要经过全球14个“咽喉要道”中的至少一个，包括巴拿马运河、马六甲海峡或黑海铁路网。 |
| Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the W.T.O.’s director general, has described trade as “a mechanism for adaptation and resilience” that can help countries deal with crop failure and natural disasters. In a speech in January, she cited economic models estimating that climate change was on track to contribute to severe malnutrition, with as many as 55 million people at risk by 2050 because of local effects on food production. But greater trade could cut that number by 35 million people, she said. |
| 世贸组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦拉把贸易描述为“一个具有适应能力和复原力的机制”，能帮助各国应对作物歉收和自然灾害。她在今年1月的一次演讲中引用了经济模型的估计，称气候变化正在成为严重营养不良的原因，到2050年时，将有多达5500万人由于气候对当地粮食生产的影响，面临营养不良的危险。但更多的粮食贸易会使这个数字降低到3500万人，她说。 |
| “Trade is part of the solution to the challenges we face, far more than it is part of the problem,” Ms. Okonjo-Iweala said. |
| “贸易不仅是问题的一部分，更是我们所面临挑战的解决方案，”奥孔乔-伊韦拉说。 |
| Solomon Hsiang, the Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and a co-director of the Climate Impact Lab, agreed that trade might simultaneously make the world more resilient to these disasters and more vulnerable. |
| 加州大学伯克利分校的公共政策校长讲座教授、气候影响实验室的联合主任项中君(Solomon Hsiang)也认为，贸易可能让世界对这些灾难更有抵御能力，也更容易受伤害。 |
| In some situations, trade can help soften the effects of climate change — for example, allowing communities to import food when local crops fail because of a drought, he said. |
| 他说，在某些情况下，贸易可以帮助缓解气候变化的影响——例如，当作物因当地的干旱歉收时，贸易让当地居民能够进口粮食。 |
| “That’s on the good side of the ledger,” Mr. Hsiang said. “But the bad side is, as everyone really acutely understands, we are so interconnected from our supply chains that events on one side of the world can dramatically impact people’s well-being elsewhere.” |
| “这是好的一面，”项中君说。“但不好的一面是，正如每个人都已深刻认识到的，我们与供应链的联系如此紧密，以至于世界一边的事件可能会极大地影响其他地方人民的福祉。” |
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