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在全球范围内,民主是如何受到威胁的?
How Democracy Is Under Threat Across the Globe

来源:纽约时报    2022-08-23 12:06



        The United States is far from alone in facing pressure on its democratic norms and institutions. According to data from V-Dem, a monitoring institute based in Sweden, more democracies are declining, and even sliding into autocracy, today than at any point in the last century. This trend, continuing for over a decade, appears to be accelerating, data shows, affecting established and fragile democracies alike across the globe.        在民主规范和制度方面面临压力的国家远不止美国一家。据总部设在瑞典的跟踪调查机构V-Dem的数据,如今正在衰落、甚至向专制倒退的民主国家比上个世纪的任何时候都多。数据显示,这个已经持续了十多年的趋势似乎正在加速,对全球各地成熟的和脆弱的民主国家都产生了影响。
        Here’s a look at some of the latest developments.        以下是一些最近的事态发展。
        Kenya        肯尼亚
        Though considered one of Africa’s most robust democracies, Kenya has faced periodic turmoil. Politicians there have sometimes exploited polarization along ethnic and geographic lines, particularly during elections. This has led to succession crises, communal violence or attacks on institutions such as the courts.        尽管被认为是非洲最强劲的民主国家之一,但肯尼亚也面临周期性的动荡。肯尼亚的政客们有时会利用族裔和地理上的两极分化,尤其是在选举期间。这已导致了政权更迭危机、不同群体之间的暴力,或对法院系统等制度的攻击。
        A razor-thin election this August has brought with it another test for Kenyan democracy, with a senior aide to the losing candidate suggesting that their campaign might challenge the results as fraudulent.        在今年8月的总统大选中,胜者以微弱多数当选,这给肯尼亚的民主带来了又一次考验。落选候选人的一名高级助手已暗示,他们的竞选团队可能会对选举结果提出舞弊质疑。
        “The state of democracy in our country, Kenya, is sitting in a very hostile territory,” William Ruto, the election’s winning candidate, said at a Washington, D.C., event earlier this year.        在总统大选获胜的候选人威廉·鲁托今年早些时候在华盛顿特区的一次活动上说,“我们国家的民主状况处于充满敌意的环境中。”
        Sri Lanka        斯里兰卡
        This multiethnic and religiously diverse democracy has been questioned since the brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former strongman, took power in the 2019 elections. The Rajapaksa family had long faced accusations of abusing power and vilifying the country’s minorities, raising fears that Sri Lanka might return to autocracy.        自从前铁腕人物马欣达·拉贾帕克萨的弟弟在2019年的大选后掌权以来,外界一直怀疑该国多民族和宗教多元化的民主制度。拉贾帕克萨家族曾长期面临滥用权力和诋毁该国少数民族的指控,让人们担心斯里兰卡可能会退回专制统治。
        This summer, demonstrations over economic issues culminated in protesters storming the presidential palace. The president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, resigned, but appointed an ally as his replacement; that ally later formally became president, with the Parliament’s blessing. This has left the conflict between protesters and the influence of the Rajapaksa dynasty in limbo.        今年夏天,经济问题引发的示威活动以抗议者冲击总统府告终。虽然总统戈塔巴雅·拉贾帕克萨辞职,但任命了一名盟友作为继任者;这名盟友后来得到议会批准正式出任总统。这让抗议者与拉贾帕克萨王朝影响力的争执处于不稳定状态。
        Hungary        匈牙利
        “The new state that we are building is an illiberal state,” Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban declared in 2014.        “我们正在建设的新国家是一个不容自由的国家,”匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托在2014年宣布。
        Since then, Mr. Orban, who casts himself as a vanguard of the global populist right, has retooled the courts, the Constitution and voting rules in ways that have cemented his rule. He has also wielded state-run and private media against opponents, promoting disinformation and nationalist narratives.        自那以后,欧尔班重组了法院、修改了宪法和投票规则,从而巩固了他的统治,他自称是全球右翼民粹主义的先锋。他还使用国有和私营媒体打击对手,宣扬虚假信息和民族主义叙事。
        Mr. Orban has cast these steps as necessary to defend Hungary from the corrupting influences of racial diversity, non-European immigration and the European Union. While opposition parties have risen built on discontentment with Mr. Orban, he retains a meaningful base of support.        欧尔班认为,这些做法对于保护匈牙利免受种族多样化、非欧洲移民以及欧盟的侵蚀性影响是必需的。虽然建立在对欧尔班不满基础上的反对派力量已有所增长,但欧尔班仍拥有相当大的选民基础。
        Brazil        巴西
        President Jair Bolsonaro, who praises Donald J. Trump as a political model, has long criticized Brazil’s democratic institutions as corrupt. He has also spoken fondly of the country’s right-wing military dictatorship, which ruled from 1964 to 1985.        总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗把特朗普誉为政治榜样,长期以来他一直批评巴西的民主制度腐败,还曾经深情地谈起从1964年到1985年统治巴西的右翼军事独裁政权。
        Mr. Bolsonaro is already questioning the legitimacy of Brazil’s presidential race coming up in October, in which he has consistently trailed in the polls. He has even enlisted the help of some military leaders in raising doubts about the integrity of the vote.        博尔索纳罗已经在质疑将于今年10月举行的巴西总统大选的合法性,他在相关民调中的支持率一直落后。他甚至寻求一些军方领导人的帮助,对投票的公正性提出质疑。
        Though it is unclear whether Mr. Bolsonaro would actually seek to overturn or reject a loss, his rabble rousing has elevated international concern over the stability of Latin America’s largest democracy.        尽管目前还不清楚如果博尔索纳罗落选,他是否真会寻求推翻选举结果或拒绝承认败选,但他煽动民众的做法已经引发了国际社会对这个拉丁美洲最大民主国家稳定性的担忧。
        The Philippines        菲律宾
        Rodrigo Duterte’s six years as president in the Philippines saw political rivals and critical journalists jailed, the widespread dissemination of pro-Duterte disinformation and a wave of vigilante police violence that left thousands dead.        在罗德里戈·杜特地担任菲律宾总统的六年里,人们看到他的政敌和持批评态度的记者被关进监狱,支持他的虚假信息被广泛传播,民间行刑队制造的暴力浪潮已导致数千人死亡。
        A fiery populist, Mr. Duterte positioned himself as defending democracy from the opponents he cast as threats to the country from within, winning support from his base despite his excesses while in office.        杜特地是一名狂热的民粹主义者,他把自己定位为民主的捍卫者,而对手——按他的话说,是那些从内部威胁到这个国家的人;尽管他在任内犯下种种暴行,但仍赢得了其基层选民的支持。
        Though he left office willingly at the end of his term in May, voters elected a new president, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., that rights groups fear will continue his style of rule. The new President Marcos is the son of a former dictator of the Philippines. His vice president, Sara Duterte, is Mr. Duterte’s daughter.        尽管他在今年5月任期结束后自愿离职,但选民们选了小费迪南德·马科斯担任新总统,人权组织担心小马科斯将继续杜特地的统治风格。新总统小马科斯是菲律宾前独裁者的儿子。他的副总统萨拉·杜特地是杜特地的女儿。
        India        印度
        Under Narendra Modi, India’s right-wing prime minister since 2014, a sharp rise in extreme Hindu nationalism, often backed by his government’s allies, has divided Indian society.        印度的右翼总理纳伦德拉·莫迪于2014年上台,在他的领导下,往往得到莫迪政府盟友支持的印度教极端民族主义急剧上升,使印度社会出现了分裂。
        The country’s roughly 200 million Muslims have faced political marginalization and, in many cases, deadly religious violence, with officials at times looking the other way. Critical journalists come under growing pressure from both the government and an increasingly nationalist media.        印度的大约两亿穆斯林公民已面临政治上的边缘化,许多时候还面临着致命的宗教暴力,官员们对这些暴力有时视而不见。提出批评的记者受到政府和日益倒向民族主义的媒体不断增长的施压。
        Mr. Modi’s government clamped down fiercely on the disputed region of Kashmir and responded harshly to a wave of protests by Indian farmers last year, raising fears that his rule was growing increasingly strong-armed.        莫迪政府对有争议的克什米尔地区进行严厉镇压,对印度农民去年的抗议浪潮做出了严厉回应,让人们担心,他的统治正变得越来越强硬。
        Turkey        土耳其
        In his nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has remade Turkish democracy into a vessel for his personal rule. Once seen as a liberalizing force, Mr. Erdogan has curtailed political freedoms and centralized power so drastically that he is widely seen as a dictator.        在其近20年的执政时间里,雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安将土耳其的民主改造成他个人统治的工具。埃尔多安曾经被视为一股自由化的力量,但他对政治自由大加限制,而且将大量权力集中在自己手中,使他被广泛视为独裁者。
        After a 2016 coup attempt against him, Mr. Erdogan’s administration detained 100,000 people and purged 150,000 government employees from their jobs, cementing his power. Still, there remains enough of a semblance of democracy that opposition groups unseated Mr. Erdogan’s ally from the powerful mayoralty of Istanbul in 2019 and hope for further gains.        在2016年针对他的政变未遂后,埃尔多安政府拘留了10万人,并清洗了15万名政府人员,从而巩固了权力。尽管如此,民主外形尚存,反对派团体在2019年将埃尔多安的盟友从强大的伊斯坦布尔市长位置上赶下台,并希望取得更多进展。
        Poland        波兰
        Once Eastern Europe’s great post-communist success story, Poland is now facing deep political polarization. The ruling right-wing party has sought to subordinate the traditionally independent judiciary and media to its will. It also railed against the European Union, which has questioned whether Polish leaders’ are upholding the rule of law.        波兰曾经是东欧优秀的后共产主义成功故事,现在正面临着严重的政治两极分化。执政的右翼政党试图让传统上独立的司法和媒体屈服。它还抨击欧盟,后者质疑波兰领导人是否维护法治。
        In recent months, fears for Poland’s democracy have ebbed slightly. Polish leaders have sought to repair ties with the European Union, including over democracy matters, as a way to fight against what they see as the Russian threat to Europe. Still, rights groups say that Polish democracy has hardly reversed its backward steps.        最近几个月,人们对波兰民主的担忧略有消退。波兰领导人试图修复与欧盟的关系,包括在民主问题上的分歧,以此来对抗他们眼中俄罗斯对欧洲的威胁。尽管如此,人权组织表示,波兰民主几乎没有扭转其倒退的步伐。
        El Salvador        萨尔瓦多
        This small Central American country had established a fragile democracy in the wake of its wrenching civil war, which ended in 1992 but created wounds that are still healing.        这个中美洲小国在痛苦的内战之后建立了一个脆弱的民主国家,内战于1992年结束,但创伤仍未愈合。
        A young outsider, Nayib Bukele, won the presidency in 2019 promising change. In office, however, he has curbed basic rights, purged judges, jailed thousands with little due process and deployed the army, all in what he calls an emergency measure to fight crime.        年轻的政治圈外人纳伊布·布克莱在2019年赢得了总统职位,承诺进行变革。然而,在任职期间,他限制了基本权利,清洗法官,在没有正当程序的情况下将数千人监禁,并部署军队,将所有这些称为打击犯罪的紧急措施。
        Still, even as rights groups and international monitors raise alarms, Mr. Bukele has grown wildly popular, a reminder that, in today’s world, would-be strongmen are often cheered while on the rise.        尽管如此,即使人权组织和国际监督员发出警告,布克莱仍然广受欢迎,这提醒我们,在当今世界,准强人经常在崛起时受到民众的欢呼。
        Venezuela        委内瑞拉
        Once South America’s oldest democracy and wealthiest economy, Venezuela has collapsed into an economic disaster zone, with much of the population hungry and ruled under what is widely considered a dictatorship.        委内瑞拉曾经是南美洲最古老的民主国家和最富有的经济体,现在已沦为经济灾区,大部分人口处于饥饿状态,并被广泛认为处于独裁统治下。
        The country is often held up by democracy scholars as representative of how democracies tend to decline today: slowly, pulled down from within by elected populists who treat opponents and institutions as illegitimate, and whose actions may initially be quite popular.        民主学者经常把这个国家视为当今民主国家走向衰落的代表:慢慢地,民选的民粹主义者将它从内部拉下水,将反对者和制度视为非法,而他们的行动最初可能很受欢迎。
        The leader who oversaw much of this decline, the leftist firebrand Hugo Chávez, died in 2013. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has overseen deadly crackdowns on protesters, as well as asserting forceful control over the courts and legislature.        亲历大部分衰落过程的领导人、左翼煽动者乌戈·查韦斯于2013年去世。他的继任者尼古拉斯·马杜罗指挥了对抗议者的致命镇压,并对法院和立法机构采取强力控制。
        Czech Republic and Slovenia        捷克共和国和斯洛文尼亚
        When the populist outsider and billionaire media tycoon Andrej Babis became the prime minister of the Czech Republic in 2017, there were fears he might follow the path created by Mr. Orban in Hungary toward arch-conservative illiberalism. As nearby Slovenia elected its own right-wing populist, concerns arose of a bloc of nations that might break the European Union from within.        当信奉民粹主义的政治圈外人、亿万富翁媒体大亨安德烈·巴比什2017年成为捷克共和国总理时,人们担心他可能会跟随欧尔班在匈牙利开创的道路,走向极端保守的反自由主义。随着邻国斯洛文尼亚选出自己的右翼民粹主义者为领导人,人们担心可能会出现从内部破坏欧盟的国家集团。
        While Mr. Babis did inch his country in that direction, he was ultimately felled in the 2021 elections, when several opposition parties banded together against the leader they called a threat to Czech democracy. Slovenian voters cast out their populist government the next year. Both countries served as demonstrations that doubts around democracy can still sometimes recede.        虽然巴比什确实推动他的国家朝着这个方向发展,但他最终在2021年的选举中被击败,当时几个反对党联合起来反对他,称他对捷克民主构成了威胁。斯洛文尼亚选民第二年将他们的民粹主义政府赶下台。从这两个国家可以看出,对民主的疑虑有时还是能消散的。
                
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