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| For six months, a major land war has sown horror in Europe. |
| 六个月来，大规模陆地战争已在欧洲播下了恐怖的种子。 |
| It is a war in which violence and normality coexist — death and destruction at the 1,500-mile front and packed cafes in Kyiv, just a few hundred miles to the west. |
| 这是一场暴力与常态并存的战争：2400公里的前线上是死亡与毁灭，而在距此以西几百公里的基辅，咖啡馆依然门庭若市。 |
| It is a war fought in trenches and artillery duels, but defined in great part by the political whims of Americans and Europeans, whose willingness to endure inflation and energy shortages could shape the next stage of the conflict. |
| 这场战争在战壕与炮火中进行，但其进程在很大程度上却由美国人和欧洲人的政治意志所决定，他们是否愿忍受通胀和能源短缺或将决定冲突下一阶段的局势。 |
| And it is a war of imagery and messaging, fought between two countries whose deep family ties have helped turn social media into a battlefield of its own. |
| 这是一场属于影像和信息的战争，参战两国间深厚的亲缘纽带已将社交媒体变为了另一处战场。 |
| No one knows how it will end. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, having silenced dissent, has proclaimed that “by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest.” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, emboldened by a defiant populace and a mostly united West, has played down the chances of a settlement and urged his people not to bend. |
| 没人知道这场战争将如何结束。俄罗斯总统普京在压制异议后宣称，“总的来说，我们还没有真正开始投入进去。”在民众反抗和立场基本一致的西方的鼓舞下，乌克兰总统泽连斯基不屑于谈及和解的可能，并敦促他的人民不要屈服。 |
| Will Western backing hold as Europe braces for the possibility of a winter with little Russian oil and gas? Will Mr. Putin, after strikes in Crimea and the killing of a nationalist commentator, escalate the war? And will Mr. Zelensky be able to sustain his nation’s determination against a nuclear-armed foe? |
| 随着欧洲面临冬季可能缺乏俄罗斯石油和天然气的问题，西方的支持会持续吗？克里米亚遭到袭击和一位民族主义时评人被杀的事实会让普京升级战争吗？而且，面对拥有核武的敌人，泽连斯基能够维持住举国反抗的决心吗？ |
| Mr. Putin now controls about 20 percent of the country. But he appears as far as ever from bringing Ukraine back into Russia’s fold — and there is little indication he is prepared to stop fighting. |
| 普京现在控制了乌克兰20%的领土。离让乌克兰重回俄罗斯怀抱那一天似乎仍然很遥远——但也没有迹象表明他打算停手。 |
| Half a year after Russian forces massed at their neighbor’s border made their move, here is how the conflict appears to the combatants, and to a continent plunged into turmoil. |
| 自集结在这一邻国边境的俄军开始行动以来已经过去半年，以下是参战双方和陷入混乱的整个欧陆对于这场冲突的看法。 |
| In Ukraine, Bracing for Something ‘Nasty’ |
| 乌克兰：准备面对一些“卑劣”的手段 |
| On the eve of Ukrainian Independence Day, President Volodymyr Zelensky offered a cleareyed view of the threat facing his country. |
| 在乌克兰独立日前夕，泽连斯基总统明确描绘了乌克兰所面临的威胁。 |
| Moscow might seek to mar the Aug. 24 celebration, which commemorates the country’s 1991 separation from the Soviet Union, with “something particularly nasty, particularly cruel,” Mr. Zelensky warned on Tuesday. |
| 泽连斯基周二警告称，莫斯科可能试图用一些“极其卑劣、极其残忍的手段”来破坏8月24日的庆祝活动，也就是乌克兰在1991年脱离苏联的纪念日。 |
| After all, Wednesday also marks six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, unleashing a war that has driven many Ukrainians from their homes, killed thousands of troops and shaken the economy. Officials warned that Russia may strike with a volley of cruise missiles, or stage show trials of Ukrainian prisoners of war in the occupied city of Mariupol. |
| 毕竟，周三也是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰刚好满六个月的日子，这场战争让许多乌克兰人流离失所，成千上万的士兵丧生，令乌克兰经济陷入困境。官员们警告称，俄罗斯可能会发射一连串巡航导弹，或在被占领的马里乌波尔公开审判乌克兰战俘。 |
| But Mr. Zelensky said the Ukrainian authorities planned no extraordinary precautions if Kyiv, the capital, was hit. The Ukrainian government will respond “the same as now” or any other day, he said at a news conference. |
| 但泽连斯基表示，乌克兰当局并不打算针对首都基辅可能遇袭的情况做出任何额外防范。他在新闻发布会上表示，不管是现在还是未来的任何时候，乌克兰政府都会做出“同样的回应”。 |
| In towns along the front, in Russian-occupied areas and at the sites hit by long-range missile strikes, the most intense war in Europe since World War II burns with visible force. |
| 在前线、俄占区以及远程导弹袭击地点附近的城镇，“二战”以来欧洲最激烈的战火正在熊熊燃烧。 |
| But acclimated to risk, Ukrainians are creeping back to a sense of normality after the shock of the winter invasion. |
| 但在冬季入侵制造的冲击后，乌克兰人已经适应了危局，逐渐找回一些常态。 |
| After some early successes by the Ukrainian Army in repelling the Russian military from assaults on Kyiv and northern Ukraine, families prepared for the start of school. Patrons packed sidewalk cafes. |
| 在乌军成功击退俄军对基辅和乌克兰北部的进攻后，许多家庭都在为开学做准备。路边的咖啡馆里满是客人。 |
| Regions where a majority of Ukrainians live are stable and relatively safe, the government still stands, and the army, equipped with ever-more-potent Western weaponry, remains intact. |
| 大多数乌克兰人居住的地区都比较稳定，相对安全，政府依然存在，装备了愈发强大的西方武器的军队也仍然完好无损。 |
| “The original threat was that the Russian Army, being the second-largest in the world, would establish air superiority and domination,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense. “We managed to learn how to stop them.” |
| “最初的威胁是，作为世界第二大规模的军队，俄军将拥有制空权和绝对优势，”乌克兰前国防部长安德烈·扎霍罗德纽克说。“我们学会了如何阻止他们。” |
| But the cratering economy, the risk of airstrikes and the toll of attrition warfare could chip away at Ukraine’s ability to resist, he said. At the six-month mark, he said, survival is not the same as victory, or even a clear path toward it. |
| 但他表示，低迷的经济、空袭带来的风险和消耗战造成的损失都可能削弱乌克兰的抵抗能力。他说，战争已来到六个月的节点，幸存不等于胜利，甚至无法清楚地看到胜利的希望。 |
| “We cannot stop, and we cannot move into a boring, low-intensity war,” Mr. Zagorodnyuk said. “We need to think how we can squeeze them out.” |
| “我们不能停下来，我们不能转入无聊的低强度战争，”扎霍罗德纽克说。“我们要想办法把他们逼出去。” |
| At the least, the war is far from where Moscow had hoped it would be — a fact that Ukrainians drove home with taunts and a mocking parade this week of about 80 burned and disabled Russian tanks and military vehicles in Kyiv. Ukrainian children climbed onto the wreckage; passers-by stopped for selfies. |
| 至少，莫斯科所期待的战争进展远未达成——乌克兰人本周用嘲弄和一场旨在调戏俄国的游行清楚地表明了这一点，在基辅展出了大约80辆被烧毁或摧毁的俄罗斯坦克和军车。乌克兰孩子们爬上这些残骸；路人停下来自拍留影。 |
| “In February, the Russians were planning a parade,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said on Twitter. “Six months into the large-scale war, the shameful display of rusty Russian metal is a reminder to all dictators how their plans may be ruined by a free and courageous nation.” |
| “2月时，俄罗斯人还在计划庆祝游行，”乌克兰国防部在Twitter上表示。“大规模战争打了六个月，这堆俄国废铜烂铁的耻辱展示提醒了所有独裁者，一个自由而勇敢的国度可以毁他们的计划。” |
| Still, the fragile normality masks the staggering toll the war has taken on Ukraine. The U.N. High Commissioner for human rights has reported that 5,587 civilians have been killed and 7,890 wounded — and acknowledged that these figures are most likely drastic undercounts. |
| 然而，并不稳固的常态掩盖了战争给乌克兰带来的惊人损失。联合国人权事务高级专员报告称，共有5587名平民丧生，7890人受伤，且这些数字很可能远低于实际水平。 |
| This week, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the Ukrainian commander of the armed forces, said that about 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the six months of combat. |
| 乌克兰武装部队总司令瓦列里·扎鲁日尼本周表示，在六个月的战斗中，约有9000名乌克兰士兵丧生。 |
| In his speech, Mr. Zelensky suggested Ukrainians could hardly expect anything worse from Russia than the blows already absorbed. |
| 泽连斯基在讲话中表示，乌克兰人已经承受了来自俄罗斯的最严厉打击，未来基本不可能更糟了。 |
| But Ukrainians are preparing. |
| 但乌克兰人正在准备。 |
| Kharkiv went into lockdown and announced a curfew for Wednesday. At checkpoints in Kyiv, soldiers who had for months waved through cars searched them carefully. |
| 哈尔科夫进入封锁状态，并宣布周三实行宵禁。几个月来，士兵们都在基辅的各检查点叫停车辆仔细搜查。 |
| Mr. Zelensky, advisers said, would record a celebratory video to avoid presenting a public target. |
| 顾问们称泽连斯基会录制一段庆祝视频，以免成为公开的目标。 |
| “It is important to never, not for a minute, relent to the enemy’s pressure,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Don’t bend, don’t show weakness.” |
| “面对敌人的施压一刻也不能松懈，这是至关重要的，”泽连斯基说。“不能屈服，不能示弱。” |
| — Andrew E. Kramer |
| ——安德鲁·E·克莱默 |
| In Russia, Hard-Line Nationalists Reign |
| 俄罗斯：鹰派民族主义者的天下 |
| Few Russians could imagine in February that President Vladimir V. Putin would order a sweeping invasion of Ukraine. Even pro-Kremlin commentators dismissed the idea as foolishly risky and needlessly cruel. And Mr. Putin, keeping his plans from all but his closest advisers, by all accounts expected the war to be over in days. |
| 2月时，俄罗斯人还很难想象普京总统会真的下令全面入侵乌克兰。即使是亲克里姆林宫的评论人士也将这一想法批为愚蠢的冒险和不必要的残酷。除了最亲密的顾问，没有人知道普京的计划，所有人都认为战争将在数日之内结束。 |
| Then came the mismanaged invasion, the crush of sanctions, the flight of antiwar Russians, a humiliating retreat from Ukraine’s capital, pictures of Russian atrocities and mounting evidence of a devastating toll among Russian troops. Rather than being greeted as a liberator, Mr. Putin was the instigator of Europe’s biggest land war since World War II. |
| 那之后，就是计划不周的入侵、制裁的重压、俄罗斯反战人士的逃离、从乌克兰首都的屈辱撤退、俄罗斯暴行图片被公开、以及越来越多俄军伤亡严重的证据。普京并未受到解放者般的欢迎，反而被视为欧洲自“二战”以来最大规模陆地战争的发动者。 |
| But now, at the war’s six-month mark, Mr. Putin is still fighting — and others have joined him. |
| 但如今，在战争进行到六个月的节点，普京还在战斗——其他人也加入了他的行列。 |
| “One country, one president, one victory,” intoned Leonid Slutsky, a nationalist lawmaker, at a memorial service on Tuesday for the pro-war pundit Daria Dugina, whose death in a car bombing last weekend has emerged as the latest inflection point in the war. |
| “一个国家，一位总统，一场胜利，”周二，民族主义议员列昂尼德·斯卢茨基在支持战争的时评人达莉娅·杜金娜的追悼会上表示，杜金娜在上周末的汽车爆炸事件中丧生，是这场战争的最新转折。 |
| The Russia that remains after half a year of war is both stunningly different and shockingly unchanged. |
| 历经半年战争的俄罗斯，其变与不变之处都堪称惊人。 |
| What remained of independent news media, politics and culture — voices that had survived other crackdowns by Mr. Putin — all but evaporated, replaced by a militant ultranationalism piped through state television. The angry antiwar rallies of the invasion’s first weeks have petered out, with even a dissenting social media post punishable by up to 15 years in prison under a censorship law passed in March. |
| 仅存的独立新闻媒体以及政治与文化——那些在普京其他镇压中仍能幸存的声音——已经彻底消失，取而代之的是国家电视台不断传播的激进极端民族主义。在入侵前几周的愤怒反战集会逐渐销声匿迹，根据今年3月通过的审查法案，哪怕是在社交媒体上发表异见，也会被判处最高15年的监禁。 |
| Yet Mr. Putin has also resisted the calls of the invasion’s most ardent supporters to put the entire nation on a war footing. His government has succeeded in blunting the impact of economic sanctions on daily life while avoiding a large-scale military draft. That may explain why the Levada Center, an independent pollster, found last month that 43 percent of Russians say they are paying little to no attention to events in Ukraine. |
| 但普京同样拒绝了最热切的入侵支持者的呼声，即让全国进入战备状态。他的政府成功减弱了经济制裁对民众日常生活的影响，同时也避免了大规模的征兵。这或许就是为什么独立民调机构列瓦达中心在上个月发现，43%的俄罗斯人表示，他们乌克兰局势甚少或者完全不予关注。 |
| With his forces bogged down at the front, Mr. Putin seems to have settled into waging a war of attrition while staying vague about what sort of deal to end the war he would be prepared to accept. He accuses the West, with its deliveries of increasingly potent heavy weaponry to Kyiv, of fighting Russia “to the last Ukrainian” — an insistence that he can still outlast the enemy. |
| 在他的军队于前线挣扎之际，普京似乎决意要发动一场消耗战，并对他准备接受怎样的停战协议含糊其辞。他指责西方向乌克兰运送愈发强大的重型武器，让乌克兰付出与俄对抗“到最后一人”的代价——即便如此他仍坚称自己能比敌人坚持得更久。 |
| The coming winter and Europe’s reliance on Russian energy supplies are emboldening Mr. Putin to fight on until divisions emerge in the West or Ukraine’s army and government are exhausted. But the war’s supporters are increasingly questioning that approach, citing explosions in the occupied Crimean Peninsula and the blast that killed Ms. Dugina on a highway in an affluent Moscow suburb as evidence that the Kremlin may be underestimating its adversaries. |
| 冬天即将到来，欧洲对俄罗斯能源供应的依赖使普京更加有恃无恐地战斗，直到西方出现分歧或乌克兰军队和政府耗尽精力。但战争的支持者越来越多地质疑这种做法，指出被占领的克里米亚半岛的爆炸，以及在莫斯科富裕郊区的高速公路上被炸死的杜金娜都证明，克里姆林宫可能低估了对手。 |
| Her father, the ultranationalist theorist Aleksandr Dugin, said at her memorial service on Tuesday what her wish now would be: “Don’t glorify me, but fight for our great country.” |
| 杜金娜的父亲、极端民族主义理论家亚历山大·杜金周二在她的追悼会上说，她的遗愿将会是：“不要赞颂我，要为我们伟大的国家而战。” |
| Kyiv has denied any role in her death, but Russia has accused it of responsibility, and it appears to have given new momentum to the demands of Russia’s hard-liners that Mr. Putin escalate the assault on Ukraine. They see the war as not just about regaining a lost empire, but about stripping the last vestiges of liberalism from Russian society. |
| 基辅否认与她的死有任何关系，但俄罗斯称基辅是罪魁祸首，这似乎为俄罗斯强硬派要求普京升级对乌克兰的打击提供了新的动力。他们认为这场战争不仅仅是为了夺回一个失落的帝国，而是为了从俄罗斯社会中剥夺自由主义的最后一丝痕迹。 |
| “For them, the deeper the country gets into this catastrophe,” said the Russian political expert Marat Guelman, “the less the chance that at some moment there will be a turn.” |
| 俄罗斯政治专家马拉特·古尔曼说：“对他们来说，国家陷入这场灾难越深，在某个时刻出现转机的可能性就越小。” |
| — Anton Troianovski |
| ——安东·特罗亚诺夫斯基 |
| Europe Is Staying United — for Now |
| 欧洲保持团结——暂时是这样 |
| Six months into a war with no clear end in sight, European solidarity with Ukraine is holding despite significant strains from the cost of economic sanctions. |
| 这场战争已经持续了六个月，尽管为经济制裁付出了很大的代价，但欧洲与乌克兰仍然继续团结在一起。 |
| Even the leaders of larger countries farther from the war — like France, Germany and Spain, which are on the verge of recession after being hit hard by inflation — have kept their criticism of E.U. policy on Ukraine low-key, even as they worry about how and when the war will conclude. |
| 即使是远离战争的大国——如法国、德国和西班牙，在受到通货膨胀的重创后正处于衰退的边缘，其领导人也只是低调批评欧盟的乌克兰政策，尽管对战争将如何以及何时结束心存忧虑。 |
| European leaders have worked closely with American officials to keep the pressure on Moscow, coordinating not just punishing sanctions but also shipments of weaponry to Ukraine. The invasion, which has dominated NATO meetings, has bonded America to Europe more tightly than at any time since the Cold War. |
| 欧洲领导人与美国官员密切合作，以持续对莫斯科施压，不仅协调惩罚制裁，还协调向乌克兰运送武器。这次入侵成为北约会议的主导话题，使美国与欧洲的联系比冷战以来的任何时候都更加紧密。 |
| As Ukraine resists and Russian atrocities mount, European countries have sharpened their condemnation of Moscow. They are no longer looking for a swift cease-fire or trying to bring Russia into a new security architecture for Europe, as President Emmanuel Macron of France tried to do early in the war. |
| 随着乌克兰持续抵抗和俄罗斯的暴行加剧，欧洲国家对莫斯科的谴责越来越严厉。他们不再寻求迅速停火，或像法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙那样试图在战争初期将俄罗斯带入欧洲的新安全架构。 |
| “You really have to look at the bright side,” said Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. “Europe remains much more united and effective than most of us would have expected six months ago. The ability and willingness of Europe to uphold and increase the sanctions despite occasional disagreements and tensions are tangible realities.” |
| “真的得往好处想，”巴黎战略研究基金会副主任布鲁诺·特特拉斯说。“欧洲仍然比我们大多数人六个月前预期的更加团结和有效。尽管偶尔出现分歧和紧张，欧洲有维持和增加制裁的能力和意愿，这是不争的事实。” |
| For Fabian Zuleeg, the head of the European Policy Center, a Brussels research institution, the war has already brought about profound changes in the European Union. That includes unprecedented action on sanctions, on military aid and spending, and on expansion, with Ukraine and Georgia being given candidate status. Relations between the United States and NATO have improved considerably, and Europe has opened its arms to Ukrainian refugees. |
| 对于布鲁塞尔研究机构欧洲政策中心的负责人法比安·祖莱格来说，这场战争已经给欧盟带来了深刻的变化。这包括在制裁、军事援助和开支以及扩张方面采取前所未有的行动，乌克兰和格鲁吉亚被授予候选盟国地位。美国与北约的关系有了很大改善，欧洲也向乌克兰难民敞开了怀抱。 |
| “It’s easy to forget how big these changes are,” Mr. Zuleeg said. |
| “人们很容易忘记这些变化有多大，”祖莱格说。 |
| Guntram Wolff, the director of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said it’s “so far so good — European unity at the moment is still there.” Even on some of the most difficult issues, such as economic sanctions, he said, “there is not so much disagreement, but also not a lot of new action either.” |
| 德国外交关系委员会主任冈特拉姆·沃尔夫表示，“暂时都还好——目前欧洲仍然是团结的。”他说，即使在一些最棘手的问题上，比如经济制裁，“虽然不至于说是分歧，但也没有太多新的行动。” |
| Mr. Wolff is also disappointed that given the stakes, countries like Germany and France are not sending more arms more quickly to Ukraine because of anxiety that too much Ukrainian success might push Russia to escalate the war and drag in NATO. |
| 让沃尔夫感到失望的还有，德国和法国等国家考虑到利害关系，并没有更快地向乌克兰运送更多武器，因为他们担心乌克兰的成功可能会促使俄罗斯升级战争并拖累北约。 |
| From the first major tremors of the Russian buildup near Ukraine’s borders, the United States has worked closely with the European Union and NATO to create a stronger coalition of countries prepared to act in the face of unprovoked Russian aggression that ripped apart post-Cold War peace and violated the United Nations Charter. |
| 从俄罗斯在乌克兰边境附近集结的第一次重大行动开始，美国一直与欧盟和北约密切合作，建立一个更强大的国家联盟，准备好应对俄罗斯无端的侵略，这场侵略破坏了冷战后的和平并且违反了联合国宪章。 |
| But as the war grinds on, it is increasingly being seen as an American-led struggle against Russia. The United States far outstrips Europe in terms of both financial and military aid to Ukraine. |
| 但随着战争的进行，它越来越被视为一场由美国领导的与俄罗斯的斗争。美国在对乌克兰的财政和军事援助方面远远超过欧洲。 |
| Large parts of the world have been silent, indifferent or even on Moscow’s side. Perhaps half the world has refused to impose sanctions on Russia over its actions, though a huge chunk of that half is China and India. Both consider themselves rising powers unfairly constrained by the American-dominated global order and believe that the United States and Europe are in relative decline. |
| 世界很大一部分地区一直保持沉默、漠不关心，甚至站在莫斯科一边。全世界可能有一半的地方拒绝就俄罗斯的行为对其实施制裁，尽管这里面中国和印度占了很大一部分。它们都认为自己作为正在崛起的大国受到了美国主导的全球秩序的不公平约束，并认为美国和欧洲相对正在衰落。 |
| European countries closest to the conflict, like Poland and the Baltic nations, have kept the continent morally focused on the dangers of Russian aggression. But even in Poland, there is growing fatigue with the massive numbers of Ukrainian refugees, and there are clear splits, especially on energy sanctions. Hungary and Serbia in particular maintain close ties to Russia and have rejected sanctions pushed by Brussels. |
| 与冲突最为接近的欧洲国家，如波兰和波罗的海国家，一直在道德层面上提醒欧洲大陆关注俄罗斯侵略的危险。但即使在波兰，大量的乌克兰难民也越来越让人感到疲倦，并且存在明显的分歧，尤其是在能源制裁方面。匈牙利和塞尔维亚尤其与俄罗斯保持密切联系，并拒绝了布鲁塞尔推动的制裁。 |
| “Winter may be the moment of truth, the trial by fire,” Mr. Tertrais said, “with economic hardship, social impact and reaction by populist forces that will try to blame the domestic situation on the sanctions — the rhetoric encouraged by the Kremlin.” |
| “冬天可能是揭开真相的时刻，是火刑考验，”特特拉斯说，“经济困难、社会影响和民粹主义势力的反应将试图把国内局势归咎于制裁——这个说法是有克里姆林宫的助推的。” |
| — Steven Erlanger |
| ——斯蒂芬·厄兰格 |
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