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冰冷的数字背后,乌克兰战争的惨重代价
Thousands of Civilian Deaths and 6.6 Million Refugees: Calculating the Costs of War

来源:纽约时报    2022-08-25 02:46



        Day after day for 181 days, the grim ledger of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grows longer with each missile strike, burst of gunfire and report of atrocities.
        在181天日复一日的循环里,随着一次次导弹袭击、枪声四起和暴行的报告出现,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的残酷记录也越来越多。
        • Ukrainian civilians have paid a heavy price: 5,587 are confirmed dead, and the true number is believed to be in the tens of thousands. The number of refugees has surpassed 6.6 million.
        ·乌克兰平民付出了沉重代价:5587人已被证实死亡,而真实数字据信以万计。难民已经超过660万。
        • Military losses have been heavy on both sides, with about 9,000 Ukrainians and as many as 25,000 Russians said to be killed.
        ·双方军事损失都很惨重,据称有约9000名乌克兰人和多达2.5万名俄罗斯人丧生。
        • Ukraine has lost control of 20 percent of its territory to Russian forces and their proxies in recent years.
        ·乌克兰20%的领土在过去几年里被俄罗斯部队及其代理人夺走
        • The destruction has already cost Ukraine at least $113.5 billion, and it may need more than $200 billion to rebuild.
        ·战争的破坏已给乌克兰造成了至少1135亿美元(约合7770亿人民币)的损失,而重建可能需要耗费超过2000亿美元。
        • Donor nations have pledged to give Ukraine more than $83 billion in total.
        ·捐助国承诺向乌克兰提供总计超830亿美元的援助。
        • Ukrainian agricultural production and other countries that depend on it have been hit hard. Even with grain ships on the move again, the world hunger crisis is dire.
        ·乌克兰农业生产及其他依赖乌克兰农业的国家受到了严重打击。即使运粮船能恢复运输,全球粮食危机依然严峻。
        The toll on civilians
        平民伤亡
        On Monday, the United Nations reported that it had confirmed the deaths of 5,587 civilians, including 149 girls, 175 boys and 38 children whose sex is unknown. At least 7,890 civilians were confirmed to be injured, it said.
        周一,联合国报告称已证实乌克兰5587名平民死亡,其中包括149名女童、175名男童和38名性别未知的幼儿。报告称,至少有7890名平民被证实受伤。
        But those are only the confirmed civilian casualties. The true numbers, U.N. officials concede, are without doubt far higher.
        但这只是得到确认的平民伤亡数字。联合国官员承认,真实数字无疑要高得多。
        The actual toll is probably tens of thousands of civilians. That is the estimate Ukrainian officials have arrived at after months of recovering bodies.
        实际平民伤亡可能数以万计。这是乌克兰官员经过数月的遗体搜寻后得出的估计。
        In Bucha, near the capital, residents are still burying the roughly 400 civilians killed during a month of Russian occupation. At least 1,500 civilians were killed in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, during Russia’s failed attack, according to Ihor Klymenko, Ukraine’s chief of police.
        在首都附近的布查,居民们仍未将在一个月的俄占期间被杀害的大约400名平民安葬完毕。乌克兰国家警察局长伊霍尔·克雷缅科表示,俄军败退之后,首都基辅至少有1500名平民丧生。
        And in Mariupol, the southern city pulverized by months of Russian siege, Ukrainian officials believe that at least 22,000 people were killed. They cite witness accounts, satellite imagery of mass graves and footage showing bodies in the streets.
        乌克兰官员认为,南部城市马里乌波尔至少有2.2万人在数月的俄军围困中丧生。他们援引了目击者的描述、卫星图像显示的乱葬岗以及展示街头陈尸的视频片段。
        The military casualties
        军事伤亡
        Russia and Ukraine have kept their military casualties a closely guarded secret, though Western analysts believe both have sustained heavy losses.
        俄罗斯和乌克兰都对各自的军事伤亡情况严加保密,但西方分析人士认为,两国都伤亡惨重。
        Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Monday that about 9,000 Ukrainians had been killed at the front. Speaking at a conference for veterans, he did not say whether that included all the branches of Ukraine’s military; the number could not be independently verified. In comparison, in the eight-year conflict between Ukraine and Russia-backed forces, around 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were killed.
        乌克兰武装部队总司令瓦列里·扎卢日尼周一表示,约有9000名乌克兰人在前线阵亡。他在一次老兵集会上发表了这番讲话,并未说明是否涵盖了乌克兰军队的所有军种;这一数字也无法得到独立消息来源的证实。相较之下,在乌克兰和俄罗斯支持的部队之间长达八年的冲突中,约有1.3万名乌克兰士兵和平民被杀。
        Russia last gave an official military toll in March, when it said that 1,351 of its troops had been killed. At the time, American officials estimated the figure to be around 5,000.
        俄罗斯上次公布官方军事伤亡数字是在今年3月,当时它声称有1351名士兵阵亡。同时期美国官员估计的这一数字约为5000人。
        Four months later, the British military estimated that 25,000 Russians had been killed and tens of thousands more wounded. And this month, Pentagon officials estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russians had been killed or wounded; they put the number of deaths at 20,000. U.S. officials said their estimates were based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports.
        四个月之后,英国军方估计有2.5万名俄罗斯人阵亡,受伤则数以万计。本月,五角大楼官员估计有七至八万俄罗斯人阵亡或受伤;他们估计的死亡人数为2万。美国官员称,他们的估算是基于卫星图像、通信拦截、社交媒体和实地媒体报道。
        Before the full-scale invasion, the Russian military had about 900,000 active-duty troops. British officials estimated that the initial invasion force had about 300,000 troops, including support units. U.S. defense officials say Russia has committed nearly 85 percent of its fielded army to the war.
        在全面入侵之前,俄罗斯约有90万现役军人。英国官员估计,包括增援部队在内,最初参与入侵的部队规模约在30万人。美国国防官员称,俄罗斯投入了近85%的地面部队参加这场战争。
        Refugees and displaced people
        难民及流离失所者
        More than 6.6 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, according to the United Nations’ latest estimate. Of those, more than 3.8 million people have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe.
        根据联合国最新估计,欧洲各地已有超过660万乌克兰难民的记录。其中,380多万人注册申请了“临时保护”或是欧洲其他类似的国家保护计划。
        Within Ukraine, roughly seven million people have been displaced internally, U.N. officials estimate. About 13 million are stranded or unable to escape contested ground because of fighting, ruined bridges and roads, and a lack of resources.
        联合国官员估计,乌克兰国内大约有700万人流离失所。由于战斗、桥梁公路被毁和资源缺乏,约1300万人被困或无法逃离交火地区。
        The homes, towns and cities destroyed
        被毁房屋及城镇
        Russian shelling and missile strikes across Ukraine have destroyed more than 130,000 buildings since February, according to research by the Kyiv School of Economics, drawing on information from Ukrainian government ministries.
        基于乌克兰政府部门提供的信息,基辅经济学院的研究显示,自2月以来,俄罗斯对乌克兰各地的炮击和导弹袭击已摧毁逾13万栋建筑。
        Since February, 311 bridges have been damaged or destroyed; 188,000 private cars have been damaged, destroyed or seized; and more than 15,400 miles of road damaged or destroyed.
        自2月以来,有311座桥梁被毁;18.8万辆私家车被损坏、摧毁或扣押;超过2.4万公里的道路受损或毁坏。
        The range of buildings that have been damaged, destroyed or seized is vast, the researchers reported: at least 115,000 private houses and 15,000 apartments; 2,290 educational facilities, including 798 kindergartens; 1,991 shops and 27 shopping centers; 934 health care facilities and 715 cultural facilities; 511 administrative buildings, 28 oil depots and 18 civilian airports.
        研究人员报告称,被破坏、摧毁或没收的建筑类别广泛:至少有私人宅邸11.5万座、公寓1.5万套;教育设施2290处,其中幼儿园798家;商店1991间,购物中心27座;医疗设施934处,文化设施715处;行政大楼511栋,油库28处,还有民用机场18个。
        Territory seized
        被占领土
        Years before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Russia had illegally annexed Crimea and propped up separatist fighters who occupied about 6,500 square miles of eastern Ukraine: two regions totaling about 7 percent of Ukraine’s 233,000 square miles.
        在全面入侵乌克兰的几年前,俄罗斯已经非法吞并克里米亚,并支持分离武装占据了乌克兰东部约1.7万平方公里的领土:这两个地区约占乌克兰60.3万平方公里总领土面积的7%。
        Now, Ukrainian officials say, Russia has taken control of about 20 percent of its territory, including all of Luhansk Province in the east and most of the Kherson region in the south.
        乌克兰官员声称,俄罗斯现已控制该国大约20%的领土,包括东部的整个卢甘斯克州,以及南部赫尔松的大部分地区。
        The front
        前线
        The front line stretches about 1,500 miles from southern Ukraine through the eastern Donetsk Province into the northeastern Kharkiv region. In mid-August, General Zaluzhnyi said Russian forces were shelling 700 to 800 Ukrainian positions a day in the south and east.
        绵延约2400公里的前线从乌克兰南部穿过东部的卢甘斯克州,一直延伸至东北部的哈尔科夫地区。扎卢日尼总司令8月中旬表示,东部和南部总计700至800处乌军阵地每天都会遭到俄罗斯部队的轰炸。
        Western analysts say Russia has lost a significant amount of armored and heavy weapons. Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s under secretary of defense for policy, said this month that Russian forces have most likely lost between 3,000 and 4,000 armored vehicles.
        西方分析人士称,俄罗斯损失了大量装甲车辆和重型武器。五角大楼政策副部长科林·卡尔本月表示,俄军装甲车辆的准确损失应在3000至4000辆之间。
        Ukraine and Russia have each expended vast amounts of ammunition.
        乌克兰与俄罗斯都消耗了大量弹药。
        Analysts estimate that Russia is firing around 10,000 artillery shells a day, down from a peak of as much as 20,000 during the campaign to take Luhansk, and that Ukraine is firing several thousand artillery rounds a month.
        分析人士估计,俄罗斯目前每天发射炮弹约1万枚,低于夺取卢甘斯克战役期间的2万枚峰值,而乌克兰每月也要进行数千轮炮击。
        The cost for Ukraine
        乌克兰的代价
        As of Monday, the Kyiv School of Economics estimated, the damage to Ukraine’s economy from the destruction of buildings and infrastructure amounted to $113.5 billion. The researchers estimated the minimum money needed for recovery is almost $200 billion.
        基辅经济学院估计,截至周一,建筑物和基础设施的破坏对乌克兰经济造成了多达1135亿美元的损失。研究人员估计,重建所需的最低资金接近2000亿美元。
        The Ukrainian government has estimated that it needs $5 billion a month to keep essential services and its battered economy running — a figure likely to increase in the fall and winter — and eventually a total of $750 billion for recovery.
        乌克兰政府估计,每月需要支出50亿美元来维持基本服务,保证已受重创的经济能继续运行,而这一数字在秋冬可能会继续增加。总计恢复成本达到7500亿美元。
        An outpouring of aid
        大量援助
        The United States has pledged more than $54 billion in overall aid to Ukraine, the most of any nation. Since Feb. 24, the Biden administration has provided more than $9.9 billion in military assistance, the State Department says. That includes dozens of armored vehicles and artillery systems, tens of thousands of shells and 16 HIMARS launchers, an advanced rocket system that Western analysts believe is helping Ukraine disrupt Russian supply lines.
        美国承诺向乌克兰提供总额超过540亿美元的援助,为全球最多。国务院表示,自2月24日以来,拜登政府已向乌克兰提供超过99亿美元的军事援助。这包括数十辆装甲车和火炮系统,大量炮弹和16架“海马斯”发射车,西方分析人士认为,这种先进的火箭系统正在帮助乌克兰破坏俄军补给线。
        Britain has pledged the second-most military aid, totaling $4 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has been tracking aid since the war began. That is followed by European Union institutions ($2.5 billion), Poland ($1.8 billion) and Germany ($1.2 billion).
        基尔世界经济研究所自开战以来一直在跟踪援助情况,其数据显示,英国承诺的军事援助金额位居第二,总计40亿美元。紧随其后的是欧盟机构(25亿美元)、波兰(18亿美元)和德国(12亿美元)。
        According to the Kiel researchers, E.U. institutions have pledged the most financial assistance to Ukraine at $12.3 billion, followed by the United States ($10.3 billion), Britain ($2.1 billion), Canada ($1.8 billion) and Germany ($1.15 billion). The U.S. aid includes $8.5 billion in direct budgetary support to Ukraine’s government that has been disbursed in installments; it has also provided more than $1.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and the region.
        基尔研究人员称,欧盟机构向乌克兰承诺的财政援助最多,达到123亿美元,之后是美国(103亿美元)、英国(21亿美元)、加拿大(18亿美元)和德国(11.5亿美元)。美国的援助包括向乌克兰政府提供的85亿美元直接预算支持,以分期支付的方式进行;同时还向乌克兰及战争地区提供超过15亿美元的人道主义援助。
        In all, donor nations have committed more than $83 billion in aid to Ukraine.
        总体来说,捐助国已向乌克兰承诺提供超过830亿美元的援助。
        But Christoph Trebesch, an economist at the Kiel Institute, said money was reaching Ukraine “very slowly,” a sign of the political disagreements in Europe.
        但基尔研究所的经济学家克里斯托夫·特雷贝施表示,这些资金流入乌克兰的速度“非常缓慢”,这是欧洲政治分歧的一个迹象。
        “Sending multiple rocket launchers is hard. Sending money is much easier,” he said. “The monetary side shows that it has a lot to do with political will and things being dragged out.”
        “送去大量火箭炮很困难。但送钱就容易多了,”他说。“财务层面的情况表明,这与政治意愿以及事务的拖延有很大关系。”
        The grain crisis
        粮食危机
        The war will cost Ukraine’s farmers and agribusiness companies $23 billion in lost profits, destroyed equipment and transportation costs, according to Ukrainian studies. Ukraine’s wheat exports, worth $5.1 billion last year, will fall by nearly half after this year’s harvest, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast.
        根据乌克兰的研究,这场战争给乌克兰农民和农商企业造成的利润损失、设备损坏和运输成本共计达到230亿美元。美国农业部预测,在今年的收获后,乌克兰小麦出口额将较去年的51亿美元减少一半左右。
        Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia’s Black Sea blockade trapped about 20 million tons of grain for months.
        乌克兰当局估计,俄罗斯在黑海的封锁使得约2000万吨粮食在长达数月的时间里无法运输。
        Starting this month, more than 30 cargo ships will set out from Black Sea ports carrying 721,449 metric tons of foodstuffs under a deal mediated by Turkey and endorsed by the U.N., a spokeswoman for the initiative said on Monday.
        周一,该倡议的一位发言人表示,根据由土耳其斡旋并得到联合国支持的一项协议,从本月开始,运载总计721449吨粮食的30多艘货船将从黑海港口出发。
        In mid-August, the first chartered ship departed toward a hunger-stricken part of Africa, carrying 23,000 metric tons of wheat.
        8月中旬,第一艘租用船载着2.3万吨小麦驶向了非洲的饥馑地区。
        But regions like the Horn of Africa need vastly more food supplies. As many as 50 million people in 45 countries are on the brink of famine, according to the U.N.’s World Food Program. As many as 828 million people were undernourished last year, the Food and Agriculture Organization estimated.
        但像非洲之角这样的地区仍需要更多粮食供应。据联合国世界粮食计划署统计,45个国家中的5000万人口处于饥荒边缘。联合国粮食及农业组织估计,去年全球有多达8.28亿人口处于营养不良状态。
        
        
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