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| It was an unexpected cut in interest rates. In China's second-quarter monetary policy report, the PBOC strengthened its focus on refraining from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. The market expects liquidity to remain ample. As for the 10 bps interest rate cuts by the central bank, we understand they were carried out mainly for the following three reasons.本次央行降息超出市场预期。央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告，强化了对“不搞大水漫灌”的关注。市场预期流动性仍将保持宽松。央行在当前时点降息10个基点，笔者理解主要有以下三个原因。 |
| On the other hand, overall market expectations are weak. During the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, some have been suffering deteriorating balance sheets, hampering consumption recovery. Meanwhile, enterprises still face problems like disruptions to production and logistics as well as insufficient demand, and enterprises do not have a strong willingness to use tax credit refunds to recycle into expanding investment.另一方面是预期偏弱。疫情持续时间已近三年，部分居民资产负债表趋向恶化，消费复苏阻碍重重；企业生产物流受阻、需求不足问题延续，留抵退税转化为投资扩张的意愿偏弱。 |
| Third, inflation and exchange rates reduced their role of acting as constraints, and it is time for a more discretionary monetary policy. In terms of internal inflation, growth rates of the consumer price index and the producer price index for July were both lower than market expectations, and the growth in core CPI also slowed in July. Meanwhile, the proportion of pork prices in the CPI slipped from 2.3 percent in early 2021 to 1.3 percent in July 2022 based on the Laspeyres Price Index. Therefore, subsequent inflation levels due to rising pork prices may be less drastic than previously thought.三是，通胀与汇率两大约束暂有缓解，货币政策相机抉择的时间窗口打开。就内部通胀而言，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI）同比增速双双低于市场预期，核心CPI增速也有下行。同时，因拉氏指数的核算方法，猪肉占CPI的权重已自2021年初的2.3%下滑至2022年7月的1.3%，这意味着后续“猪通胀”的压力可能不及市场的悲观预期。 |
| International capital flows are expected to achieve marginal improvements due to domestic economic recovery and lower expectations for overseas central banks to hike rates. Therefore, we may interpret the exchange rate to be "adhering to bottom-line thinking", as written in China's second-quarter monetary policy report, which better allows for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate and lets the exchange rate play its role as an internal and external balance regulator under the new situation of an improved external environment and international capital flows.在国内经济复苏、海外央行加息预期缓和的背景下，国际资本流动形势有望迎来边际改善。二季度货币政策执行报告强调汇率“坚持底线思维”，或意味着外部环境和国际资本流动形势缓和下，可适当加大对汇率双向波动的容忍度，发挥其内外平衡调节器的作用。 |
| On the other hand, the cost of bank liabilities fell quickly. According to a news conference on financial statistics in the first half, the interest rate on newly absorbed time deposits was 2.5 percent in June, 16 bps lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, the cost of interbank liabilities fell sharply just as the money market interest rate did, and the spread between the issuance interest rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit and MLF loans expanded, which averaged 27 bps in the first quarter and expanded to 60 bps in July and 81 bps since the beginning of August.另一方面，银行负债成本较快下行。上半年金融统计数据新闻发布会表示，6月份新吸收定期存款利率为2.5%，比上年同期低16个基点。同业负债成本也跟随货币市场利率较快下行，存单利率与MLF之间的点差扩大：“MLF-股份制银行一年期同业存单发行利率”的差值，一季度的均值为27个基点，7月扩大至60个基点，8月以来更扩大至81个基点。 |
| In order to employ monetary policy to support the real economy, it is urgent to maintain the stability of total credit. Against the backdrop of advance issuance of government bonds, we need to pay more attention to the growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy, excluding government bonds.货币政策要支持实体经济，亟需解决“稳信用”的持续性问题。在政府债发行前置，更需关注剔除政府债后的社融存量增速。 |
| 下半年还可期待的货币政策工具包括：加大中长期贷款的投放力度。在科技创新和绿色领域，如资金投放不及预期，可从提升再贷款资金支持比例、推广适用领域等方面优化拓展空间；在传统基建领域方面，政策性、开发性金融工具，政策性银行新增的8000亿元贷款额度相互配合，着眼于撬动配套的基建融资。 |
| In addition, there is a need to stimulate demand for lending by improving the market reform mechanism for deposit rates and further lowering deposit rates, so the over-five-year loan prime rate may be reduced notably. Meanwhile, the PBOC could cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point when necessary, which would lead to a reduction in LPR by 5 bps.通过完善存款利率市场化改革机制、进一步压降存款利率，刺激贷款需求，或可带动5年期贷款基础利率（LPR）更大幅度下行。同时，还可适时降准0.25至0.5个百分点以推动LPR再下行5个基点。 |
| The writers are Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities Co Ltd and director of the China Chief Economist Forum, and Zhang Lu and Chang Yixin, analysts at Ping An Securities. 作者：钟正生/张璐/常艺馨（钟正生为平安证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） |
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