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专家解读央行超预期降息的考量
Further policy easing may be in offing

来源:中国日报    2022-08-22 17:44



        The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, recently lowered the rate on 400 billion yuan ($58.89 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.75 percent. It also conducted 2 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent.中国人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,20亿元7天公开市场逆回购操作,中标利率均下降10个基点,分别是2.75%和2%。
        First, there is a rising need for cutting interest rates to support the real economy. Growth of some key economic data slowed in July from June, which does not augur well for a strong economic recovery in the third quarter and points to a deep-seated lack of growth momentum. On the one hand, demand declined owing to unsolved real estate problems. And given the increased risk of recession in Europe and the United States, the sword of Damocles is still hanging above the slowing export growth rate, despite exports' short-term resilience.一是,降息支持实体经济的必要性提升。7月经济增长数据普遍较6月回落,三季度以来并未展现出经济强劲复苏的面貌,折射出深层次动力不足的问题。一方面是需求收缩,房地产问题仍待解决。出口短期虽有韧性,但考虑到欧美经济衰退的风险在加大,出口增速下行的“达摩克利斯之剑”仍悬。
        Second, credit and social financing declined in July. Limited improvements in business and consumer confidence failed to boost demand for loans to the real economy. So far this year, social financing data have fluctuated greatly. As a result, it is still necessary to further reduce interest rates to stimulate loan demand.二是,7月份信贷和社会融资规模回落。居民和企业信心改善有限,使得实体经济贷款需求疲弱。今年以来,社融数据“一波三折”。因此,仍有必要进一步降息刺激贷款需求。
        As for external constraints, the latest US July consumer inflation data came in weaker than forecast, indicating a peak in overseas inflation. The market altered its expectations for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. The US dollar index fell, and the renminbi exchange rate rose steadily.就外部约束而言,最新公布的美国7月物价数据低于市场预期,海外通胀出现更多见顶迹象,市场对美联储9月加息的预期降温,美元指数有所回落,人民币汇率稳中有升。
        Liquidity has continued to ease this year since early April, and the rate cuts sent a positive policy signal. On the one hand, the seven-day reverse repo rate averaged only 1.56 percent in July and dropped to 1.34 percent since the beginning of August, far below the policy rate of 2.1 percent.今年4月初以来,货币流动性不断走向宽松,本次政策利率下调释放出积极的政策信号。一方面,7天回购利率7月均值仅1.56%,8月以来更低至1.34%,远低于政策利率的2.1%。
        The main reasons for the contraction of MLF loans are that banks have insufficient demand for high-cost MLF funds and the divergence between policy rates and market rates is huge, reducing the leading effect of MLF policy rates on the cost of bank liabilities, so there is a great need for convergence between policy rates and market rates.而本次MLF价降量缩的原因主要在于,银行对于成本偏高的MLF资金需求不足;因政策利率与市场利率的背离已较为严重,MLF政策利率对银行负债成本的指引作用有所下滑,政策利率与市场利率的收敛存在必要性。
        We expect to see some monetary policy tools in the second half. This will increase medium and long-term lending. In the fields of technological innovation and green development, if funding is not as expected, it can be optimized by improving financial support in relending or extending the scope of funding applications. In the field of traditional infrastructure, policy-related and developmental financial instruments are combined with an 800 billion yuan increase in policy banks' lending quotas to fund infrastructure projects, thus leveraging infrastructure financing.
        Also, there is a need to fully meet the credit needs of micro and small businesses, real estate and enterprises affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is advisable that the PBOC considers lowering relending rates for the agriculture sector and small businesses once more by 10 to 25 bps.此外,充分满足普惠小微领域、房地产领域、及疫情受损行业企业的信贷需求。可考虑进一步下调支农支小再贷款利率10至25个基点。
        What needs to be emphasized is that according to current cuts in policy interest rates and lending rates, monetary policy is extending more support to the real economy, which is comparable to the period when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. However, the current economic recovery is clearly weaker than at that time, so monetary policy easing will continue.需要强调的是,以当前政策利率、贷款利率的调降幅度看,货币政策对实体经济的支持力度不亚于2020年新冠疫情后,但当前经济复苏的力度较当时要逊色,因此货币政策宽松的态势应会延续。
        Their views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
        
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