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| If China’s show of force over Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip was meant as a deterrent, it has not had the intended effect in Taiwan, where the military drills have reinforced a careful two-pronged strategy of shoring up international support, while avoiding overt confrontation. | 如果说中国因美国众议院议长佩洛西访台展示武力，原意是要起威慑作用的话，那么这种做法在台湾并没有产生预期效果。中国的军演加强了台湾谨慎的双管齐下战略，那就是，在避免公开对抗的同时，增强国际对台湾的支持。 |
| The exercises, which encircled the self-ruled island and simulated a blockade, appear instead to have hardened the Taiwanese belief in the value of the island’s diplomatic, economic and military maneuverings to stake out a middle ground in the big-power standoff between China and the United States. | 演习环绕着这个自治岛屿进行，模拟对台封锁，它似乎使得台湾人更加相信，为了在中美之间的大国对峙中找到一种中间立场，需要开展自己的外交、经济和军事活动。 |
| Under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwanese officials have quietly courted Washington, making gains with weapon sales and vows of support for the democracy. They have also held back from flaunting that success, in an effort to avoid outbursts from China, which claims the island as its own. | 在蔡英文总统的领导下，台湾官员们已在悄悄寻求美国政府的支持，在对台军售以及支持台湾民主的表态方面取得了进展。但他们也努力避免激怒中国（它声称台湾是自己的领土），一直没有炫耀这些成功。 |
| As Beijing vows to normalize the military drills ever closer to Taiwan, that approach is likely to guide the island’s continuing response, setting up new rounds of brinkmanship around one of the world’s most dangerous flash points. | 随着北京放话，要把在离台湾越来越近的地点举行的军演常态化，台湾可能会继续依据这种双管齐下的政策做出反应，这将在世界上最危险的爆发点之一的周围制造新一轮又一轮极其危险的局面。 |
| When Beijing recently sent dozens of fighters across the median line separating the waters between China and Taiwan, the Taiwanese military said it would not escalate and took relatively soft countermeasures. In a contrast with the lurid and violent warnings from Chinese diplomats and state media, Taiwan issued sober statements and welcomed a letter from the leaders of the Group of 7 nations condemning the drills. | 当北京最近派出数十架战斗机越过海峡中线时，台湾军方曾表示不会将局势升级，而是采取了相对温和的对策。台湾当局发表了冷静的声明，对七国集团领导人谴责军演的声明表示欢迎，这与中国外交官和官媒耸人听闻的暴力警告形成鲜明对比。 |
| In some respects, China’s military spectacle has been self-defeating, said Fan Shih-ping, a politics professor at National Taiwan Normal University. | 从某些方面来看，中国壮观的军演已经弄巧成拙，台湾师范大学政治学教授范世平说。 |
| “This time the world has seen through China’s actions,” he said. “Taiwan has become a new focus of the world.” | “中国这次已经有点被看破手脚，”他说。 “台湾变成世界的焦点。” |
| For all their shock and awe, the drills have damaged some of China’s interests. | 尽管军演令人震撼和惊叹，但它们损害了中国的一些利益。 |
| In Taiwan, they have galvanized opposition to China, adding to the growing urgency over the need to defend the island and diversify away from economic reliance on China. Within China’s political party of choice, the Kuomintang, they have triggered internal differences over how to maintain relations with Beijing as Taiwanese public opinion sours on the prospect. Abroad, they have raised awareness about Taiwan’s plight, often overlooked and poorly understood, and prompted condemnation of China’s actions. | 中国的军演激励了台湾与中国对抗的信念，增加了有必要保卫这座岛屿、为摆脱对中国经济的依赖而将本地经济多样化的紧迫感。在中国愿意与之打交道的国民党内部，中国的军演已引发了党内在如何与北京保持关系问题上的分歧，因为台湾舆论对保持关系的前景不看好。中国的军演还提高了海外对台湾困境的认识，引发了外界对中国行为的谴责，而在过去，海外对台湾的困境往往视而不见，了解不多。 |
| “China’s exercises have already aroused such great criticism from the international community. For Taiwan, it would be impossible to reduce future foreign engagement because of this. Instead, it will only hope to strengthen its international participation further,” Mr. Fan said. | “中国这样的演习就已经引起国际这么大的批评，我觉得对台湾来讲，不可能因为这个就减少未来的对外，反而会希望更加强化国际的参与，“范世平说。 |
| Even the high political theater of Ms. Pelosi’s visit itself may serve as a model going forward. Taiwan has grown adept at courting senior lawmakers from major powers, in what has been called “congressional diplomacy.” | 甚至佩洛西访台这个高姿态的政治剧本身，也可能成为未来做法的范例。台湾已越来越擅长寻求主要国家的资深立法者的支持，这就是所谓的“国会外交”。 |
| The strategy has allowed Taiwan to strengthen international exchanges without raising the specter of full diplomatic recognition, and the ire of China, that might come with the visit of a president or a prime minister. In July, Nicola Beer, a vice president of the European Parliament, visited the island, in a recent parallel of Ms. Pelosi’s trip that caused less controversy. | 这个战略让台湾能够加强国际交流，而不用担心如果一个国家的总统或总理访台，会引发全面外交承认以及中国的愤怒的问题。今年7月，欧洲议会副议长尼古拉·贝尔访问了台湾，那是与佩洛西做法类似的一次访问，但没有引起多大的争议。 |
| “Maybe after the election, the new speaker of the U.S. Congress will also visit Taiwan, which would make it a routine,” Mr. Fan said, adding that he thought it possible that Ms. Pelosi might invite Ms. Tsai to speak in front of the U.S. Congress. | 范世平说，“搞不好美国新的众议院议长他也来台湾访问，变成是一个惯例。”他还表示，他认为佩洛西也有可能邀请蔡英文在美国国会发表演讲。 |
| That attention could also add further urgency to American arms sales to Taiwan. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had already convinced many in Washington and Taipei that a Chinese invasion was a possible danger, and that a smaller military, if armed with the right weapons, could beat back a larger force. | 这些关注也可能进一步加强美国对台军售的紧迫性。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰已让华盛顿和台北的许多人相信，中国入侵台湾是个可能的危险，但一支规模较小的军队，如果有适当的武器，也可以击退一支规模更大的军队。 |
| Nonetheless, Taiwanese officials have complained about delays and unfilled orders, in part over production constraints. Other systems Taiwan has wanted, including sophisticated naval helicopters, have been judged unnecessary by U.S. officials for fighting China with an asymmetric strategy that focuses on mobility and precision attacks. | 尽管如此，台湾官员已在抱怨武器订单交货推迟和完不成的问题（部分原因是生产能力无法满足目前的需求）。对于台湾想要的其他系统，包括先进的海军直升机，美国官员认为没有必要，因为与中国作战需要的是不对称战略，需要侧重于机动性和精准打击。 |
| The delays and strategic disagreements could put Taiwan in a difficult position were a sudden conflict to break out. American officials have considered stockpiling arms in Taiwan out of concern that it might be tough to supply the island in the event of a Chinese military blockade. | 一旦突然爆发冲突的话，武器交货延迟和战略上的分歧可能让台湾处于不利地位。美国官员曾考虑过在台湾大量储备武器，因为他们担心在中国军事封锁的情况下，向台湾提供武器可能会很困难。 |
| “The arms sales process is one where Taiwan has to justify the need to the Americans on why we want those weapons,” said Kitsch Liao, a military and cyber affairs consultant at Doublethink Lab, a Taiwanese research group. “And there’s nothing more powerful than empirical evidence of what’s happening on the ground, so the drills would provide the hard proof to back up future requests.” | “军售的过程是，台湾必须先向美国人证明我们购买这些武器的必要性，”台湾的研究机构——台湾民主实验室的军事和计算机网络顾问廖彦棻说。“没有比实地发生的情况更强有力的经验证据了，所以中国的军演将为支持未来的购买要求提供可靠的证据。” |
| The drills may also have helped improve coordination between the militaries of Taiwan and the United States, as the two worked to ensure the security of Ms. Pelosi’s landing in Taiwan. And the military exercises, which China has said it will continue to carry out in the Taiwan Strait, offer valuable experience for Taiwan and the U.S. to share observations and intelligence. | 中国的军演也许还能帮助改善台美军队之间的协调，为确保佩洛西的飞机在台湾安全降落，双方已经进行了合作。中国表示将继续在台湾海峡进行军演，这将为台美分享观察和情报提供宝贵经验。 |
| Su Tzu-yun, a security analyst with the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, said the exercises offered a rare chance to assess China’s military capabilities, which he judged were not developed enough to “attack Taiwan in an all-around way,” he said. | 台北的国家政策基金会的安全分析师苏紫云说，军演为评估中国的军事能力提供了难得的机会，他对中国军事能力的判断是，还没有发展到有“全面进攻台湾的能力”的程度，他说。 |
| Serving as a sort of wake up call, the Chinese actions have bolstered support for the military within Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan’s forces are poorly equipped and understaffed. | 中国的行动已起了某种警钟作用，增强了台湾内部对军队的支持。在中国这样的潜在敌人面前，台军曾一直事故不断、士气不高。许多人认为，台军装备薄弱，人员不足。 |
| Though the administration of Ms. Tsai has discussed extending the length of military service, she has struggled to impose a new strategic vision on the military’s leadership. The drills, said Mr. Su, have added urgency and led to new calls for an increase to the island’s defense budget. | 尽管蔡英文的政府已在讨论延长兵役时间的问题，但她一直难以将新的战略愿景施加给军队领导层。苏紫云说，中国的军演增加了紧迫感，引发了增加台湾国防预算的新呼声。 |
| “It’s not just the responsibility for soldiers in uniforms, but the responsibility for civil servants in suits,” he said of the need to reinforce the military. | “这不只是穿军服的军人的责任，也是穿西装的文人的责任，”苏紫云谈到加强军力的必要性时说。 |
| The drills also could pave the way for better ties with some of Taiwan’s neighbors. After five Chinese missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, the country’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, condemned the drills. That presents a potential opening for Taiwan officials, who have called for a security dialogue with Japan. | 中国的军演也可能为台湾与一些邻国建立更友好的关系铺平道路。五枚中国导弹落入日本的海上专属经济区后，日本首相岸田文雄对军演予以谴责。这为那些一直呼吁与日本进行安全对话的台湾官员提供了一个潜在的机会。 |
| “What is needed is no longer just a bilateral discussion between Taiwan and Japan or Taiwan and the U.S., but dialogue, communication and contact established as soon as possible between Taiwan and the U.S.-Japan pact,” said Lai I-chung, an executive committee member at the research group the Taiwan Thinktank, and a former official in the island’s Democratic Progressive Party. | “现在已经不是台日和台美两个双边的讨论，现在必须是台湾和美日同盟对话的以及沟通和联系的方式要赶快建立，”台湾智库的副执行长赖怡忠说道，他曾任台湾民进党官员。 |
| Taiwan should learn from Ukraine, he said, and not allow China to dictate a new status quo that wears away at Taiwan’s territory and autonomy. Calling Ms. Tsai’s approach “prudent,” he said some Taiwanese yearned for stronger action, signaling possible political risk for Ms. Tsai’s approach. | 赖怡忠表示，台湾应该向乌克兰学习，不让中国强行建立一个削弱台湾领土和自治的新现状。他把蔡英文的做法描述为“审慎”，但说一些台湾人渴望更强有力的行动，暗示着蔡英文的做法可能有政治风险。 |
| “She is very cautious even to a point that some Taiwanese youngsters who hold strong Taiwanese identity are not satisfied with her,” he said. | “甚至因为她非常谨慎，所以一些有非常强烈认同的台湾朋友对她也并不满意，”赖怡忠说。 |
| Perhaps just as important for Ms. Tsai will be to limit the economic fallout from new Chinese bans on Taiwan agricultural products. Despite China’s bellicosity, it remains Taiwan’s largest trading partner, a position it further weaponized around the time of Ms. Pelosi’s visit by banning additional Taiwanese food products. | 或许对蔡英文同样重要的是，尽量减少中国对台湾农产品的新进口禁令给台湾经济造成的影响。好战的中国仍是台湾最大的贸易伙伴，它在佩洛西访台期间将这种贸易关系进一步武器化，对更多的台湾食品宣布了进口禁令。 |
| Those efforts are likely to encourage an ongoing diversification. Taiwanese companies have already been reassessing the Chinese economy, which has slumped on its harsh Covid measures that have prompted repeated lockdowns across the country. | 中国的做法可能会激励台湾正在进行的经济多样化努力。台湾的公司已在重新评估中国经济，后者为遏制新冠病毒采取了严厉措施，在全国各地多次实行封控管理，已导致经济增长放缓。 |
| Because Chinese companies rely on Taiwan’s electronics manufacturers, Beijing’s moves have largely avoided those. Even so, those manufacturers, many of which have factories in China, have also in recent years looked into moving production somewhere else. | 由于中国公司依赖台湾的电子制造商，北京发起的制裁在很大程度上避免了这个领域。尽管如此，台湾的电子制造商们（其中许多在中国设有工厂）近年来也在考虑将生产转移到其他地方。 |
| That sentiment has been echoed in Europe and the United States, which have worked to bring home more production of key tech products, like semiconductors. | 欧洲和美国也有同样的想法，他们一直在努力让更多的关键技术产品，比如半导体回到本国生产。 |
| A multibillion dollar U.S. law to support the semiconductor industry has made it more feasible for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, one of the world’s most important chip makers located in Taiwan, to expand production in the United States. Other manufacturers have moved some plants closer to customers, in places like Southeast Asia, India and Eastern Europe. | 美国已通过了一项支持半导体产业的数十亿美元的法案，这将让总部设在台湾的世界上最重要的芯片制造商之一台积电在美国扩大生产变得更加可行。其他的台湾制造商已将一些工厂搬到离客户更近的地方，例如东南亚、印度和东欧。 |
| “There is a new feeling brought by the United States and Europe, that is, things have to be supplied and sourced locally, instead of relying only on China,” said Liu Meng-chun, a director at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research. | “美国、欧洲带来一个新的感受，就是local（本地）就要供应，不能只靠中国，”中华经济研究院第一研究所所长刘孟俊说。 |
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