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佩洛西访台或削弱美国与亚太盟友统一战线
Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Risks Undermining U.S. Efforts With Asian Allies

来源:纽约时报    2022-08-04 10:36



        The Biden administration has spent months building an economic and diplomatic strategy in Asia to counter China, shoring up its alliances and assuring friendly countries that the United States is in the region for the long haul.        为对抗中国,稳住美国的盟友,向友好国家保证美国将在亚太地区长期存在下去,拜登政府在制定亚洲经济和外交战略上花了几个月的时间。
        The president has sent top military officials to seal new partnerships, and paid attention to a tiny nation in the Pacific, the Solomon Islands. He has launched a plan to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and initiated a regional economic pact. He visited South Korea and Japan in May, and for the first time invited the two countries to a NATO meeting, to reinforce that Asia wasn’t forgotten as war raged in Ukraine.        总统已派遣高级军事官员去亚太地区将新的伙伴关系明确下来,并对太平洋上的一个小国——所罗门群岛表示了关注。拜登启动了一项让澳大利亚拥有核动力潜艇的计划,还发起了一个区域经济协定。今年5月,他访问了韩国和日本,并首次邀请两国出席北约会议,借此强调在乌克兰战火肆虐之际,他并没有忘记亚洲。
        The visit to Taiwan by Speaker Nancy Pelosi now threatens to undermine the push by the White House, leaving allies to wonder what damage had been done to the president’s united front in Asia.        如今,众议院议长南希·佩洛西对台湾的访问已在威胁削弱白宫的这些努力,盟友们想知道此行给拜登在亚洲的统一战线造成了什么损害。
        The fear is that the trip, which will also include stops this week in South Korea and Japan, is an unnecessary provocation that distracts from the allies’ efforts to counter China’s military might and economic clout.        人们担心的是,她的台湾之行(本周的行程还包括在韩国和日本停留)是一个不必要的挑衅,分散了盟国对抗中国军事实力和经济影响力的注意力。
        While U.S. allies have largely remained mum on the visit so far, there’s a sense among America’s friends that they were left out in the cold to watch as China threatened the United States and Taiwan, the self-governed island that China claims as its own.        虽然到目前为止,美国的盟友们对这次访问基本上保持了沉默,但随着中国对美国和台湾发出威胁,美国的朋友们有一种他们受到冷落,只能在一旁观看的感觉。台湾是一个自治的岛屿,中国声称对其拥有主权。
        The handling of Ms. Pelosi’s visit was worrisome because, intentionally or not, it showed China’s power and diminished the role of the allies, said Seong-Hyon Lee, a South Korean fellow at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University.        哈佛大学费正清中国研究中心的韩国访问学者李成贤说,佩洛西访台的处理方式令人担忧,因为无论有意还是无意,此行让中国显示了实力,削弱了盟友的角色。
        “The very fact that China’s potential response becomes a heated debate in Washington reveals China’s rise in status,” Mr. Lee said. “Washington’s hesitance has been already widely read in the region. This is a very poor signaling diplomacy coming from Washington to its allies and partners in the region.”        “中国可能做出的回应成了华盛顿激烈辩论的话题,这件事本身就表明了中国地位的上升,”李成贤说。“亚太地区已对华盛顿的犹豫进行了广泛的解读。这是华盛顿向该地区的盟友和伙伴发出的一个非常糟糕的外交信号。”
        Despite its short-term economic issues, Beijing has invested deeply, financially and diplomatically, in long-term plans to dominate the region.        尽管中国政府面临着短期的经济问题,但已为其主导亚太地区的长期计划做了大量财政上和外交上的投入。
        China keeps telling its Asian neighbors that it is their natural partner by geographic location and cultural commonality. It is trying to persuade them that the United States is a distant and declining power, with a broken political system, bound to lose its influence in Asia.        中国一直告诉亚洲邻国,从地理位置和文化共性来看,自己才是他们的天然伙伴。它正试图说服他们,美国对他们来说是一个遥远的、正在衰落的大国,政治体系支离破碎,注定会失去在亚洲的影响力。
        The Chinese Navy has steadily increased its patrols and military exercises in the South China Sea, sending more sophisticated ships. Its military aircraft have harassed warplanes of American allies in recent months. In May, Australia complained that a Chinese fighter jet dangerously intercepted one of its surveillance aircraft.        中国海军已逐渐增加了在南中国海巡逻和军事演习的次数,派出了更先进的船只进入亚太水域。中国的军用飞机近几个月来一直在骚扰美国盟友的军机。今年5月,澳大利亚曾抱怨一架中国战斗机对一架澳大利亚侦察机做出了危险的拦截举动。
        Given China’s economic and military might, allies want consultation with Washington, something they didn’t appear to get on Ms. Pelosi’s foray to Taiwan.        考虑到中国的经济和军事实力,美国的盟友们希望华盛顿在采取涉及中国的做法时与他们进行磋商,但在佩洛西访台这件事上,美国似乎没有这样做。
        The foreign minister of Australia, Penny Wong, suggested this on Wednesday when she called on all sides, not only China, to back off.        澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤周三在呼吁各方——不仅仅是中国保持克制时,暗示了这点。
        “All parties should consider how they best contribute to de-escalating the current tensions, and we all want peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” Ms. Wong said.        “各方都应该考虑如何才能为缓和目前的紧张局势做出最大贡献,我们都希望保持台湾海峡的和平与稳定,”黄英贤说。
        Mr. Biden’s assurances on Asia in recent months had been comforting to nations facing China’s ire.        最近几个月来,拜登在亚洲问题上做出的保证曾让那些正面临中国怒火的国家感到宽慰。
        A favorite expression of that ire has been trade boycotts for what China considers bad behavior. Just hours after Ms. Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan, China imposed economic measures on the island in retaliation.        中国对其认为的恶劣行径表达愤怒最喜欢用的方式是贸易抵制。在佩洛西抵达台湾几小时后,中国就对台湾宣布了报复性的经济措施。
        Over the past two years, China has banned Australia’s exports of wine, lobsters and coal, after its government called for an international investigation into the origins of Covid-19, which first surfaced in China. The Chinese government still maintains economic sanctions on South Korea for allowing the United States in 2017 to deploy a missile defense system known as THAAD.        澳大利亚呼吁国际社会对最早在中国出现的新冠病毒进行溯源调查后,中国已在过去两年里禁止从澳大利亚进口葡萄酒、龙虾和煤炭。2017年韩国允许美国部署简称“萨德”的导弹防御系统后,中国至今都没有取消对韩国的经济制裁。
        When the new South Korean leader, Yoon Suk-yeol, said recently that he might consider a second installment of the system, China threatened more sanctions.        韩国新任领导人尹锡悦最近表示他可能会考虑部署第二个“萨德”系统后,中国威胁要实施更多的制裁。
        The economic bans and China’s growing authoritarianism have hurt its standing in South Korea, where a record high of 80 percent of the population now holds negative views of the country, according to a recent study conducted by the Pew Research Center.        中国的经济制裁以及国内日益增长的威权主义已经损害了韩国人对中国的看法,据皮尤研究中心最近进行的一项调查,韩国人中对中国持负面看法的比例高达80%,创下纪录。
        “China ranks first among South Korea’s most disliked countries,” said a retired general, Shin Won-sik, who is now a member of the National Assembly. “Around a decade ago, South Koreans had similar opinions toward China as they did the U.S.”        “在韩国最不喜欢的国家中,中国排名第一,”退役将军申元植(音)说,他现在是韩国国会议员。“大约10年前,韩国人对中国的看法与他们对美国的看法差不多。”
        In response to the China threat, he said, South Korea and Japan, which have historically had frosty relations, agreed to resume trilateral military exercises with the United States.        他说,作为对中国威胁的响应,历来关系冷淡的韩日同意恢复与美国进行三边军事演习。
        Japan, one of the most enthusiastic supporters of Washington’s China strategy, has increased coordination with the United States on Taiwan. The defense ministry in Japan has also moved troops, antiaircraft artillery and surface-to-ship missile defense batteries to the country’s southern islands, some of which are close to Taiwan.        日本是美国对华战略最热情的支持者之一,在台湾问题上已经加强了与美国的协调。日本防卫省也已将部队、高射炮和地对舰导弹防御系统部署到该国的南部岛屿上,其中一些岛屿离台湾不远。
        Public opinion in Japan has shifted decisively against China, and support for Taiwan has grown, presenting an opportunity for Washington to capitalize on closer relations between Japan and Taiwan. But Japan also wants to avoid any unnecessary new friction between the United States and China.        日本的公众舆论已坚定地转向了不喜欢中国,对台湾的支持也在增加,这为华盛顿提供了让日本与台湾建立更密切关系的机会。但日本也想避免美中之间发生任何不必要的新摩擦。
        The trip was “totally not a strategic benefit for us,” said Ryo Sahashi, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo. “We strongly support Taiwan democracy and also we really appreciate U.S. efforts for Taiwan’s defense, including arms sales to Taiwan.”        佩洛西访台“对我们来说完全没有战略利益”,东京大学副教授佐桥亮说。“我们大力支持台湾的民主,也非常感谢美国为台湾防务所做的努力,包括对台军售。”
        “But this is totally different,” he added. “What we really want to see is a more quiet environment which really enables us, Japan and the United States, to enhance our security partnership with Taipei.”        “但访台是完全不同的做法,”他补充说。“我们真正想看到的是一个更安静的环境,这才是真正能让我们——日本和美国加强与台湾的安全伙伴关系的环境。”
        Across the region, the United States has made strategic efforts to embrace the allies in a more cohesive coalition, with military and diplomatic underpinnings.        在整个亚太地区,美国都在进行战略努力,用一个以军事和外交为支撑、更具凝聚力的联盟拉近盟友的关系。
        A year ago, Australia agreed to a landmark defense pact, known as AUKUS, with the United States and Britain, to acquire nuclear propulsion technology for the planned submarines.        一年前,澳大利亚与美国和英国达成了具有里程碑意义的防务协议,简称AUKUS,它让澳大利亚按计划获取核动力潜艇技术。
        In a visit last month to Australia, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, confirmed Washington’s policy of fortifying Australia with new weapons. “The Chinese military activity is noticeably and statistically more aggressive than in previous years,” Mr. Milley said during his visit.        上个月访问澳大利亚时,美国参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利上将确认了华盛顿为澳大利亚提供新武器以加强防御的政策。“从统计数据来看,中国的军事活动与前几年相比明显地更具挑衅性,”米利在访问期间说。
        Together with the United States, Australia is spending money and diplomatic capital to help counter growing Chinese influence in the Pacific islands, a strategically important area in the event of war with China.        澳大利亚正在与美国一起进行资金和外交上的投入,帮助对抗中国在太平洋岛屿日益增长的影响力,一旦与中国发生战争的话,这是一个具有重要战略意义的地区。
        It’s a complicated position to navigate. The economies of many of America’s allies in the region, including Japan, South Korea and Australia, depend heavily on China. About one-third of Australia’s exports go to China.        在美国和中国之间找到合适的位置很复杂。美国在亚太地区的许多盟友(包括日本、韩国和澳大利亚)的经济都严重依赖中国。澳大利亚大约三分之一的出口输往中国。
        Despite bad diplomatic relations, Australia’s sales of iron ore, a main raw material for China’s industry, gained last year. Now, wine and coal exporters are trying to get their products back into the Chinese market.        尽管两国的外交关系不好,但澳大利亚去年卖给中国的铁矿石有所增长,铁矿石是中国的工业主要原料。现在,葡萄酒和煤炭出口商正在试图让他们的产品重返中国市场。
        There has been a flurry of high-level discussions to try to repair relations. The new Australian defense minister, Richard Marles, met with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, in Singapore last month.        两国已进行了一系列高层会晤,试图修复关系。澳大利亚新任国防部长理查德·马尔斯上个月在新加坡与中国国防部长魏凤和见了面。
        Ms. Wong met with Wang Yi, her Chinese counterpart, in Bali, ending a two-year diplomatic freeze. She has gone out of her way to say that China and Australia are not enemies.        黄英贤在巴厘岛与中国外交部长王毅见了面,结束了两年的外交冰冻期。黄英贤特意说了中澳不是敌人的话。
        As countries now brace for the fallout from Ms. Pelosi’s visit, the increased tensions between the two superpowers have ultimately raised questions about the authority of the American president.        随着各国现在都在为佩洛西访台的后果做准备,中美这两个超级大国之间日益加剧的紧张关系已经引发了美国总统究竟有多大权威的终极问题。
        “It doesn’t say much about Biden’s clout that he can’t prevail on the speaker from his own party,” said Alan Dupont, a former defense intelligence analyst for the Australian government, noting that the president had said the military did not think the visit was a good idea.        “拜登没能劝说同属一个政党的众议院议长,让人觉得他没有多大权力,”曾在澳大利亚政府担任国防情报分析师的艾伦·杜邦说。他指出,拜登说过美国军方不认为这次访问是个好主意的话。
        A previous speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, visited Taiwan 25 years ago. But Mr. Gingrich was a Republican and President Bill Clinton was a Democrat, a political situation that made the trip more defensible. Mr. Gingrich visited China and met with its leader at the time, Jiang Zemin, before going to Taiwan, via Japan, an unthinkable schedule today.        25年前,时任众议院议长的纽特·金里奇访问过台湾。但金里奇是共和党人,而当时的总统克林顿是民主党人,这种政治局面让金里奇的访台更说得过去。金里奇在途径日本抵达台湾之前访问了中国,与当时的中国国家主席江泽民见了面,这种行程在今天难以想象。
        China’s military was also far weaker back then, and was only beginning to modernize its forces, which now include a far stronger array of missiles and a vastly expanded navy.        中国那时的军事实力也弱得多,军队刚刚开始现代化。中国现在已拥有强大得多的导弹系列和能力大大扩展的海军。
        Even in Australia, a democratic country with raucous politics, where people knew that Ms. Pelosi was a powerful figure, it was unfathomable that Mr. Biden did not persuade her to cancel, Mr. Dupont said.        杜邦说,拜登没能说服佩洛西取消访台,即使在澳大利亚也让人觉得不可思议,澳大利亚是个在政治上吵吵闹闹的民主国家,人们都知道佩洛西是个权力很大的人物。
        “An unnecessary crisis,” he said. “An own goal, the U.S. put itself in this position.”        “这是一场不必要的危机,”他说。“是个乌龙球,是美国给自己制造的问题。”
                
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