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| TOKYO — North Korea has for years lobbed missiles into Japan’s waters without great incident. But for an increasingly powerful and aggressive China to do the same — as it did Thursday as a part of military exercises — has sharply raised concerns in political and security circles from Tokyo to Washington. |
| 东京——多年来，朝鲜一直向日本海域发射导弹，但没有发生重大事件。但是，一个日益强大和咄咄逼人的中国的相同做法——就像它在周四的军事演习中那样——令从东京到华盛顿的政治和安全界都大为担忧。 |
| Beijing’s firing of five missiles into Japanese waters to the east of Taiwan has sent a warning to both the United States and Japan about coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of a conflict there, analysts said. |
| 分析人士说，北京向台湾东部的日本海域发射了五枚导弹，向美国和日本发出警告：如果台海地区发生冲突，美国和日本不要援助台湾。 |
| Beijing wants to remind Washington that it can strike not only Taiwan, but also American bases in the region, such as Kadena air base on Okinawa, as well as any marine invasion forces, said Thomas G. Mahnken, a former Pentagon official who is now president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. |
| 前五角大楼官员、现华盛顿战略与预算评估中心主席托马斯·曼肯说，北京希望提醒华盛顿，它不仅可以打击台湾，还可以打击该地区的美国基地，比如冲绳嘉手纳空军基地，以及海上的任何入侵力量。 |
| It also reminds the Japanese that the American military presence on Okinawa makes Japan a target, he added. |
| 他还说，这也提醒日本人，美国在冲绳的军事存在使日本成为目标。 |
| Daniel Sneider, an expert on Japan’s foreign relations at Stanford University, said the Chinese “want to demonstrate that they have the capability to impose a blockade on Taiwan, and they want to send a very clear message to those that would come to the aid of Taiwan — the U.S. and Japan — that they can target them as well.” |
| 斯坦福大学研究日本外交关系的专家丹尼尔·斯奈德说，中国“想要证明他们有能力对台湾实施封锁，他们想向那些愿意援助台湾的国家——美国和日本——发出一个非常明确的信息，中国也可以把它们作为目标。” |
| “If anyone in Japan thought they could avoid involvement in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr. Sneider added, “the Chinese have demonstrated that’s not the case.” |
| “如果日本有人认为他们可以避免卷入台湾海峡的冲突，”斯奈德还说，“中国人已经证明了事实并非如此。” |
| Analysts also suggested that China’s military exercises in the waters around Taiwan seem likely to alter the status quo in the region, just as exercises in 1995 and 1996 obliterated the median line in the center of the Taiwan Strait. |
| 分析人士还表示，中国大陆在台湾附近海域的军事演习似乎有可能改变该地区的现状，就像1995年和1996年的演习“抹去”了海峡中线一样。 |
| “This exercise will last for only three days,” said Tetsuo Kotani, professor of international relations at Meikai University and a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, “but this kind of massive exercise will possibly become routine over the next few years.” |
| “这次演习只会持续三天，”明治大学国际关系教授、日本国际问题研究所高级研究员小谷哲男说。“但这种大规模演习可能会在未来几年成为常态。” |
| U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose visit to Taiwan this week ignited regional tensions, arrived in Japan Thursday night and is expected to meet with top Japanese politicians on Friday, starting with a breakfast with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. |
| 美国众议院议长佩洛西本周对台湾的访问引发了地区紧张局势。佩洛西周四晚间抵达日本，预计将于周五会晤日本高层政界人士，首先将与日本首相岸田文雄共进早餐。 |
| Some analysts have argued that if Beijing’s intent was to intimidate Japan, the missile shots might have the opposite effect on Japan’s leaders. |
| 一些分析人士认为，如果北京的意图是恐吓日本，那么发射导弹可能会对日本领导人产生相反的效果。 |
| “Seeing something like this unfolding and having Chinese missiles landing in Japan’s economic zone may actually accelerate the argument for a more rapid increase in defense spending,” said Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. |
| “看到这样的事情发生，看到中国导弹落在日本的经济区，实际上可能会助推有关加速增加国防开支的争论，”华盛顿智库史汀生中心日本项目主管辰巳由纪说。 |
| Japan has for years warily eyed the growing strength of its neighbor, and has begun plans to take more responsibility for its own defense, working closer with its allies to counter China and relying less on Washington. |
| 多年来，日本一直警惕地注视着这个邻国不断增长的实力，并已开始计划为自己的防务承担更多责任，与盟友加强合作对抗中国，减少对华盛顿的依赖。 |
| That evolution from its pacifist, postwar orientation gained new impetus with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, after which the ruling Liberal Democrats recommended doubling military spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product. |
| 随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，日本获得了新的动力，对战后和平主义导向做出改变。在那之后，执政的自由民主党建议将军费开支增加一倍，达到国内生产总值的2%。 |
| More hawkish politicians have pushed for Japan to develop a first-strike capability with conventionally armed missiles, and even suggested that the country could one day host American nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Such talk would have been unthinkable a decade ago. |
| 偏鹰派的政界人士一直在推动日本发展常规武装导弹的先制打击能力，甚至暗示日本有朝一日可能会部署美国的核武器，作为威慑力量。这样的言论在十年前是不可想象的。 |
| Taiwan, only 68 miles from a Japanese military base on Yonaguni Island, in Okinawa prefecture, lies at the center of Tokyo’s security concerns. It is one of Japan’s largest trade partners, is a major source of advanced computer chips and lies astride a narrow strait through which virtually all of Japan’s energy resources are shipped. |
| 台湾距离冲绳县与那国岛的日本军事基地仅109公里，是东京安全关切的中心。它是日本最大的贸易伙伴之一，是先进计算机芯片的主要来源，位于一条狭窄海峡的一边，日本几乎所有的能源都要通过这条海峡运输。 |
| Policymakers fear that any military confrontation over the island would inevitably draw in Japan, which hosts U.S. military bases on nearby Okinawa and has had a contentious territorial dispute with Beijing over the Senkaku Islands. |
| 政策制定者担心，围绕该岛的任何军事对抗都将不可避免地把日本牵扯进去。美国在附近的冲绳设有军事基地，而日本与中国在钓鱼岛问题上存在领土争端。 |
| In its most recent white paper, Japan’s Defense Ministry cautioned that the country should have “a sense of crisis” over the possibility of a U.S.-China confrontation. |
| 在最新的白皮书中，日本防卫省警告说，日本应当对美中对抗的可能性有“危机感”。 |
| Preparing for such an event, military planners have increased coordination with American forces and moved more troops and missile batteries to islands in southern Japan, which could be on the front lines of a clash. |
| 为应对这类事件，军事规划人员加强了与美军的协调，并向日本南部可能处于冲突前线的岛屿部署了更多的部队和导弹。 |
| In December, during remarks to a Taiwanese policy organization, Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister, who was assassinated last month, warned that a “Taiwan crisis would be a Japan crisis. In other words, a crisis for the U.S.-Japan alliance.” |
| 去年12月，于上月遇刺的前日本首相安倍晋三在对一个台湾政策组织发表讲话时警告说，“台湾危机将是日本危机。换言之，是日美同盟的危机。” |
| In an opinion article in April in The Los Angeles Times, he called for the United States to clarify its policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward the island, arguing that it is “fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by encouraging China to underestimate American resolve.” |
| 在今年4月《洛杉矶时报》的一篇评论文章中，他呼吁美国澄清其对台湾的“战略模糊”政策，认为它“鼓励中国低估美国的决心，从而助长印太地区的不稳定”。 |
| The Japanese public has taken a keen interest in the question of Taiwan’s security in recent years, as worries have grown about supply chains, China’s regional military activity and its treatment of Uighurs and its hostility to democratic governance in Hong Kong. Since the start of the pandemic, public opinion has shifted decisively against China, while support for Taiwan has grown apace. |
| 近年来，日本公众对台湾的安全问题产生了浓厚的兴趣，因为人们越来越担心台湾的供应链、中国在该地区的军事活动、中国对待维吾尔人的方式以及中国对香港民主治理的敌意。新冠疫情发生以来，公众舆论已经决定性地转向反对中国大陆，支持台湾的舆论迅速增长。 |
| Shortly after the missiles landed, Tokyo issued a formal protest to China and called on it to immediately stop its military exercises near Taiwan, Japan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. |
| 日本外务省在一份声明中说，导弹落地后不久，东京向中国发出正式抗议，要求中国立即停止在台湾附近的军事演习。 |
| Speaking to reporters, Japan’s defense minister, Nobuo Kishi, called the incident “a grave issue that concerns our national security and the safety of the people.” |
| 日本防卫大臣岸信夫对记者说，该事件是“一个严重的问题，关系到我们的国家安全和人民的安全”。 |
| Earlier on Thursday, before the missiles were fired, Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, had told reporters that Beijing did not recognize Japan’s economic zone, where the missiles landed. |
| 周四早些时候，在导弹发射之前，中国外交部发言人华春莹告诉记者，北京不承认日本的经济区，随后导弹就落在了该区域。 |
| China also called off a meeting between its foreign minister, Wang Yi, and his Japanese counterpart, Yoshimasa Hayashi, after the Group of 7 industrialized nations issued a statement expressing concern about Beijing’s “threatening actions” around Taiwan. |
| 在七国集团发表声明，对北京在台湾周围的“威胁行动”表示担忧后，中国还取消了外交部长王毅和日本外相林芳正的会晤。 |
| The missile incident is in some ways a familiar routine for Japan, which has seen 10 North Korean ballistic missiles land in its economic zone since 2016. In the short term, according to Ms. Tatsumi, the analyst, Japan’s response to Beijing is likely to follow the same playbook as with Pyongyang: diplomatic protests and more vigilance. |
| 从某种程度上说，这样的导弹事件对日本来说是家常便饭。自2016年以来，日本已经看到10枚朝鲜弹道导弹落在其经济区。据分析人士辰巳说，短期内，日本对北京的反应可能会遵循与应对平壤相同的套路：外交抗议和提高警惕。 |
| “Japan definitely does not want to be blamed by China for quote unquote overreacting,” she said, “so they won’t counter with anything physical, but their monitoring will ramp up.” |
| “日本肯定不想因为所谓的过度反应而被中国指责，”她说。“所以他们不会有任何实际反击，但他们的监控会加强。” |
| In the longer term, however, China should expect Japan to harden itself militarily, she said. |
| 但她说，从长远来看，中国应该会看到日本在军事上加强自身实力。 |
| “It will not slow down Japan’s debate on increasing its defense spending,” she added. “If anything it will probably accelerate it, and it will also accelerate conversations between the U.S. and Japan.” |
| “这不会减缓日本关于增加国防开支的辩论，”她补充说。“真要说的话只会加速，而且也会加速美日之间的对话。” |
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