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| PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — Just a few hours after five Chinese missiles blasted into Japanese waters near Taiwan, the foreign ministers of China and Japan found themselves uncomfortably close together, in the holding room for a gala dinner on Thursday night at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. |
| 柬埔寨金边——就在五枚中国导弹落入台湾附近的日本海域数小时后，周四晚上东盟外长会议的盛大晚宴上，中日两国外长对于同处一室感到很不自在。 |
| Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, saluted reporters before stepping into the room, stayed for three minutes, then walked out to his motorcade. He had already canceled plans for a bilateral meeting with his Japanese counterpart in the Cambodian capital after Japan signed on to a statement by the Group of 7 nations expressing concern about Beijing’s “threatening actions.” But the prospect of even a casual exchange might have been too much; witnesses said Mr. Wang left and did not return. |
| 中国外交部长王毅与记者打招呼后走进房间，停留了三分钟后离开，走向他的车队。他已经取消了在柬埔寨首都与日本外长举行双边会晤的计划，此前日本签署了七国集团对北京的“威胁行动”表示担忧的声明。但即使是非正式交流可能也显得不合时宜。目击者称，王毅离开后没有回来。 |
| All across Asia, it was seen as another sign of the more unstable and dangerous environment that has emerged since the visit to Taiwan this week by the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi. |
| 在整个亚洲，这被视为众议院议长南希·佩洛西本周访台后局势更加动荡危险的又一迹象。 |
| Retaliatory exercises by the Chinese military continued on Friday around the self-governing, democratic island, which China claims as its own. American officials tried again to show they would not be intimidated by China, rallying other nations to denounce its actions, while looking for ways to de-escalate. With both great powers arguing that their efforts involving Taiwan were reasonable, the intensifying tensions pointed to the accelerating risks of a wider conflict, possibly involving more countries. |
| 周五，中国军方在其声称拥有主权的这个自治民主岛屿周围继续进行报复性演习。美国官员再次试图表明他们不会被中国恐吓，召集其他国家谴责中国的行为，同时寻找缓和局势的方法。在两个大国都认为它们的对台努力是合理的情况下，日益加剧的紧张局势表明发生更广泛冲突的风险正在增加，可能会涉及更多国家。 |
| The United States intends to heavily arm Taiwan, give Australia technology for nuclear submarine propulsion and possibly base more missiles throughout the region, as many analysts and officials worry that China’s growing military might will make brinkmanship more common and varied. Displays like the one this week give a hint of how far Beijing is willing to go in an area of the world with enormous economic importance that is becoming more militarized and experiencing more close calls with deadly weapons. |
| 美国有意向台湾提供大量武器，向澳大利亚提供核潜艇推进技术，并可能在整个地区部署更多导弹，许多分析人士和官员担心，中国不断增长的军事实力将使边缘政策变得更加普遍和多变。类似的军力展示暗示了北京愿意在世界上一个具有巨大经济重要性的地区付出多大的代价，该地区正在变得更加军事化，并且正经历越来越多剑拔弩张的时刻。 |
| “We’re entering a period where China is more capable of and likely to use force to protect its interests, especially interests that it views as core and nonnegotiable like Taiwan,” said Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At the same time, she added, Beijing has signaled to Taiwan, Japan and others that it is more willing to escalate against U.S. allies than against the United States itself. |
| “我们正在进入一个中国更有能力并且更有可能使用武力来保护其利益的时期，特别是它认为像台湾这样不容商榷的核心利益，”战略和国际研究中心中国力量项目主任林洋说。她还说，北京同时已向台湾、日本和其他国家发出信号，表明它更愿意升级跟美国盟友的对抗，而不是跟美国本身。 |
| If the eventual goal is to push the United States onto the sidelines in Asia, as many believe, China seems to think that scaring or luring other countries away from American ties would be more productive than a direct challenge. Even before Ms. Pelosi’s trip, China had begun pushing the boundaries of acceptable military behavior, especially with America’s allies. |
| 如果像许多人认为的那样，中国的最终目标是让美国不再是亚洲的主导力量，那么中国似乎认为恐吓或引诱其他国家远离美国比直接挑战更有成效。甚至在佩洛西出访之前，中国就已经开始突破可接受的军事行为的界限，尤其是与美国的盟国。 |
| In May, Chinese aircraft dangerously intercepted an Australian surveillance flight in international airspace over the South China Sea, firing flares and releasing a bundle of chaff into the Australian jet’s engine. |
| 今年5月，中国飞机在南海的国际空域危险地拦截了一架澳大利亚侦察机，向其发射信号弹，并向其引擎释放了铝箔干扰丝。 |
| That same month, China and Russia conducted joint exercises over the seas in northeast Asia as President Biden was visiting the region, and Chinese jets buzzed Canadian aircraft deployed in Japan, forcing pilots into maneuvers to avoid a collision. |
| 同月，在拜登总统访问东北亚时，中国和俄罗斯在该海域举行了联合军演，中国战机逼近部署在日本的加拿大飞机，迫使飞行员做出机动以避免相撞。 |
| The actions around Taiwan go further — with Chinese missiles fired into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone for the first time and with missiles fired over Taiwanese air space. Together, the muscled-up moves carry what many in the region see as a layered message from China’s leaders: You’re vulnerable, and China will not be deterred by the United States. |
| 围绕台湾的行动更进一步——中国首次向日本专属经济区海域发射导弹，并让导弹在台湾上空通过。在该地区的许多人看来，这些强硬的举动传达了中国领导人的多层次信息：你们处于弱势，而中国不会被美国吓阻。 |
| Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sought to counter that argument on Friday in a speech to Southeast Asian counterparts in Cambodia. |
| 上周五，美国国务卿布林肯在柬埔寨对东南亚国家外长发表讲话时，试图反驳这种说法。 |
| According to a Western official in attendance, Mr. Blinken, speaking after Mr. Wang of China, told the group that Beijing had sought to intimidate not only Taiwan, but also its neighbors. Calling the Chinese government’s response to a peaceful visit by Ms. Pelosi flagrantly provocative, he referred to the Chinese missiles landing near Japan and asked: “How would you feel if this happened to you?” |
| 据一名出席会议的西方官员称，布林肯在中国外长王毅之后发言，他告诉与会人士，北京不仅试图恐吓台湾，还试图恐吓其邻国。他称中国政府对佩洛西和平访问的回应是公然的挑衅，他提到中国导弹落在日本附近，并问道：“如果这种事情发生在你们身上，你们作何感想？” |
| At a news conference, Mr. Blinken said, “We will stick by our allies and partners, and work with and through regional organizations to enable friends in the region to make their own decisions free from coercion.” |
| 布林肯在新闻发布会上说，“我们将支持我们的盟友和伙伴，与地区组织合作，并通过这些组织，让该地区的朋友们能够在不受胁迫的情况下做出自己的决定。” |
| There is some evidence of that. Senior American officials have been more frequent visitors to Asia this year, working on expanded partnerships like the security pact called AUKUS with Australia and Britain, and announcing that new embassies would be opened in several Pacific Island nations. |
| 有一些迹象能证明这一点。今年，美国高级官员对亚洲的访问更为频繁，致力于扩大伙伴关系，比如与澳大利亚和英国签订名为AUKUS的安全协议，并宣布将在几个太平洋岛国设立大使馆。 |
| But doubts about American resolve remain common in Asia. A backlash against free trade has left both Republican and Democratic leaders reluctant to push for any ambitious trade agreements in the region, despite the pleas of Asian nations. That is a glaring omission as China’s economic clout grows. |
| 但亚洲仍然普遍对美国的决心怀有疑虑。尽管亚洲国家提出了请求，对自由贸易的反弹使得共和党和民主党领导人都不愿推动在该地区达成任何宏大的贸易协定。随着中国经济实力的增长，这是一个明显的疏漏。 |
| Some analysts in Washington say recent U.S. administrations have been “over-militarizing” the China issue because they lack bold economic plans. |
| 华盛顿的一些分析人士说，最近几届美国政府在中国问题上缺乏大胆的经济计划，导致该问题“过度军事化”。 |
| Others see stagnation with American diplomatic ideas and military adaptation. Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, an Australian research institute, noted that while China’s rise has accelerated, America’s military structure in the region remains essentially unchanged from the end of the Cold War. |
| 也有人认为美国的外交理念和军事调整停滞不前。澳大利亚研究机构洛伊研究所国际安全项目主任山姆·罗格文指出，虽然中国的崛起加快了，但美国在该地区的军事结构与冷战结束时相比基本没有变化。 |
| “The whole security order in Asia has been overturned in that time,” he said. “Given all that has happened, their friends and allies in the region are quite reasonably worried about the eroding credibility of American deterrence.” |
| “在那段时间里，亚洲的整个安全秩序都被颠覆了，”他说。“考虑到发生的一切，他们在该地区的朋友和盟友有充分理由担心美国威慑的可信度正在下降。” |
| The ambivalence in Washington about Ms. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan — with top White House security advisers suggesting that she cancel it — seemed to confirm that not even the United States is sure of its footing. And after the Trump years, the possibility of another American president pulling away from Asia is never far from the minds of the region’s leaders. |
| 华盛顿对佩洛西访台的矛盾态度——白宫高级安全顾问建议她取消访问——似乎证实了连美国自己都不确定自己的立足点。在特朗普执政的那些年之后，该地区领导人始终没有排除另一位美国总统从亚洲撤走的可能性。 |
| They know what China wants: to rule over Taiwan and for other countries to stay out of what Beijing asserts are its internal affairs. And for many countries in Southeast Asia, that looks easier to accommodate than what the United States might request, like stationing troops, being granted naval access, or basing long-range missiles on their territory. |
| 他们知道中国想要什么：统治台湾，让其他国家远离北京所称的内政。对于东南亚的许多国家来说，这似乎比美国可能提出的要求更容易接受，比如驻扎军队、允许海军进入或在其领土上部署远程导弹。 |
| “The No. 1 consideration is how to respond to China and how close to get to the United States,” said Oriana Skyler Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. They don’t want to “find themselves too far out front.” |
| “首先要考虑的是如何回应中国，跟美国能走多近，”斯坦福大学弗里曼·斯波哥利国际问题研究所研究员奥莉娅娜·斯凯勒·马斯特罗说。他们不想“发现自己成了出头鸟”。 |
| Indonesia, which is projected to have the world’s fourth-largest economy around 2030, could play a larger role in shaping regional relations, but it has yet to show much interest in stepping out of its nonaligned position. |
| 预计在2030年前后将成为世界第四大经济体的印度尼西亚在区域关系的塑造中可能会发挥更大的作用，不过暂时无法看出该国是否有意摆脱不站队的立场。 |
| Vietnam is a persistent conundrum for the Americans: U.S. officials understand its long history of animus toward China, exacerbated by continuing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, so it could be a natural partner. But some American officials say they are realizing that Vietnamese leaders want to straddle the fence with both superpowers. |
| 越南对美国来说一直是个不解之谜：美国官员知道这个国家对中国的敌意由来已久，并随着南海争端的相持不下而愈发强烈，因此理应是美国的天然伙伴。但有美国官员说，他们渐渐认识到，越南领导人希望在两个大国的对抗中成为一个骑墙派。 |
| Cambodia presents another quandary. China’s economic influence is felt throughout the country, and Cambodian leaders recently agreed to have China expand and upgrade a naval base, alarming Washington. |
| 柬埔寨带来的是另一种困惑。这个国家上上下下都能感受到中国的经济影响，而其领导人最近还同意让中国对一座海军基地进行扩建和升级，引起华盛顿的警觉。 |
| “There is a combination of what is the United States going to do, what is the policy of the United States over time, and what is Chinese power like,” Ms. Mastro said “And can they stay out of it?” |
| “许多问题汇合到一起，美国会做些什么，美国今后的政策是什么，中国的力量如何，”马斯特罗说，“还有他们能不能置身事外？” |
| Many countries seem to be betting on a stronger military. Japan increased its military budget by 7.3 percent last year, Singapore by 7.1 percent, South Korea by 4.7 percent and Australia by 4 percent, according to research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. |
| 许多国家似乎把希望寄托在强军上。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的一项研究，日本去年将其军费预算增加了7.3%，新加坡7.1%，韩国4.7%，澳大利亚4%。 |
| Even combined, those increases failed to match China dollar for dollar. Beijing increased its military spending by 4.7 percent, to $293 billion, less than the $801 billion spent by the United States, but an increase of 72 percent over its spending a decade ago. |
| 这些增幅加起来也无法跟中国等量齐观。北京的军费开支增加了4.7%，达到2930亿美元（约合19800亿人民币），少于美国的8010亿美元，但跟十年前相比增加了72%。 |
| That trend line will continue to breed anxiety not just in Washington, but also among America’s closest allies in the region, Australia, South Korea and Japan — and in many of the countries that have tried not to choose a side. |
| 这样的增长趋势将继续带来忧虑，不只是在华盛顿，也包括该地区跟美国最近的盟友，澳大利亚、韩国和日本——以及许多试图不选边站队的国家。 |
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