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| A.H. Beard, a 123-year-old luxury mattress manufacturer based in Australia, started eyeing China around 2010. At the time, the family-owned company faced looming competition from low-cost, foreign-made mattresses in its home market. China, with its 1.4 billion consumers and a growing middle class with a taste for premium brands, seemed like a good place to expand. |
| 有123年历史的澳大利亚豪华床垫制造商比尔德(A.H. Beard)在2010年左右开始关注中国市场。当时，这个家族企业在国内面临着来自低成本外国床垫的潜在竞争。中国拥有14亿消费者，中产阶级也在不断壮大，他们喜欢高档品牌，这里似乎是个扩张的好地方。 |
| The choice paid off. |
| 这一选择得到了回报。 |
| A.H. Beard opened its first store there in 2013. Before the coronavirus pandemic, sales in the country were growing more than 30 percent a year. There are now 50 A.H. Beard stores across China, with plans to open 50 more. But like most foreign companies operating in China nowadays, A.H. Beard has started to think more carefully about its strategy. |
| 2013年，比尔德在中国开了第一家门店。在新冠病毒大流行之前，它在中国的销售额每年增长30%以上。目前，比尔德在中国有50家门店，并计划再开50家。但是，和如今大多数在华经营的外国公司一样，比尔德公司已经开始更仔细地考虑其战略。 |
| Beijing’s strict Covid-19 policy has exacted a heavy toll on business. The company’s exports into China are no longer on the rise. |
| 中国政府严格的新冠防控政策对企业造成了沉重打击。该公司对中国的出口不再上升。 |
| This month, Chinese officials announced that the economy grew at its slowest pace since the early days of the pandemic. Unemployment is high, the housing market is in crisis and nervous consumers — living under the constant threat of lockdowns and mass testing — are not spending. |
| 本月，中国官员宣布，中国经济增速降至疫情初期以来的最低水平。失业率高企，房地产市场陷入危机，生活在封锁和大规模检测的持续威胁之下，紧张的消费者不愿支出。 |
| Now, the once resilient Chinese economy is looking shaky, and the companies that flocked to the country to partake in boom times are being confronted by a sobering reality: flat growth in what was once seen as a reliable economic opportunity. |
| 如今，曾经充满活力的中国经济看起来摇摇欲坠，那些涌入中国、参与繁荣时代的企业正面临着一个严峻的现实：曾被视为可靠经济机遇的中国经济增长乏力。 |
| “I certainly don’t see China returning to the rates of growth that we had seen previously,” said Tony Pearson, chief executive of A.H. Beard. |
| “我当然不会认为中国会恢复到我们之前看到的增长速度，”比尔德公司首席执行官托尼·皮尔森说。 |
| So far, most companies are staying the course, but there is a steady whiff of caution that did not exist just a few years ago. |
| 到目前为止，大多数公司都保持自己的路线，但有一种持续的警惕，这在几年前是不存在的。 |
| Geopolitical tensions and a U.S.-China trade war have unleashed punishing tariffs for some industries. Covid-19 has snarled the flow of goods, lifting the prices of almost everything and delaying shipments by months. China’s pandemic response of quarantines and lockdowns has kept customers at home and out of stores. |
| 地缘政治紧张局势和中美贸易战导致一些行业被征收严苛的关税。2019新冠病毒病造成了商品流通的混乱，几乎所有商品的价格都上涨了，发货被推迟了几个月。中国为应对疫情实施的隔离和封锁使顾客留在家里，不去商店。 |
| A.H. Beard opened its flagship store with a local partner in Shanghai almost 10 years ago. And like any high-end brand, it rolled out products with prices that defy belief. China became the best-selling market for its top-of-the-line $75,000 mattress. |
| 大约10年前，比尔德与当地一家合作伙伴在上海开设了旗舰店。和任何高端品牌一样，它推出了价格令人难以置信的产品。中国成为其7.5万美元顶级床垫最畅销的市场。 |
| Since then, the cost of shipping a container has jumped sixfold. The cost of mattress materials and components, such as latex and natural fibers, have increased significantly. Other worrying signs have emerged, including a housing slump. (New homes often mean new mattresses.) |
| 从那以后，集装箱的运输成本上涨了六倍。乳胶和天然纤维等床垫材料和组件的成本大幅增加。其他令人担忧的迹象也出现了，包括房地产市场的低迷。（新房子通常意味着新的床垫。） |
| Mr. Pearson said he is hoping that the Chinese Communist Party congress later this year will clarify “the trajectory for China” and imbue consumers with more confidence. “The economy still has growth potential,” he said. “But there’s always a degree of risk.” |
| 皮尔逊说，他希望今年晚些时候的中国共产党代表大会能明确“中国的发展轨迹”，给消费者注入更多信心。“经济仍有增长潜力，”他说。“但风险总是存在的。” |
| After the 2008 financial crisis when the rest of the world retrenched, China emerged as an outlier and international businesses rushed in. |
| 2008年金融危机之后，当世界其他地区都在紧缩开支时，中国脱颖而出，国际企业纷纷涌入。 |
| European luxury brands erected gleaming stores in China’s biggest cities, while U.S. food and consumer goods companies jostled for supermarket shelf space. German car manufacturers opened dealerships, and South Korean and Japanese chip firms courted Chinese electronics makers. A booming construction market fueled demand for iron ore from Australia and Brazil. |
| 欧洲奢侈品牌在中国最大的城市里建起了华贵的门店，美国食品和消费品公司则在争夺这里的超市货架。德国汽车制造商在中国开设经销店，韩国和日本的芯片公司向中国电子产品制造商示好。繁荣的建筑市场刺激了对澳大利亚和巴西铁矿石的需求。 |
| Chinese consumers rewarded those investments by opening their wallets. But the pandemic has rattled the confidence of many shoppers who now see rainy days ahead. |
| 中国消费者对这些投资的回报是打开钱包。但新冠大流行动摇了许多购物者的信心，他们现在认为未来会有困难的日子。 |
| Fang Wei, 34, said she has scaled back her spending since she left a job in 2020. In the past, she spent most of her salary on brands like Michael Kors, Coach and Valentino during frequent shopping trips. |
| 34岁的房薇表示，自2020年离职以来，她已经减少了开支。过去，她经常购物，把大部分薪水都花在Michael Kors、Coach和Valentino等品牌上。 |
| Even though she is employed again, working in advertising in Beijing, she now allocates a quarter of her salary on food, transportation and other living costs. She hands the rest to her mother, who puts the money in the bank. |
| 尽管再次就业，在北京从事广告行业的工作，但她现在将工资的四分之一用于食品、交通和其他生活费用后，把剩下的钱交给母亲，让母亲存入银行。 |
| “Because I’m worried about being laid off, I transfer everything to my mother every month,” Ms. Fang said. “It’s very depressing to go from enjoying life to subsistence.” |
| “现在因为担心被裁员，每月除了生活必须开支，其他都转给我妈存起来了，”房薇说。“很压抑，从享受生活变成维持生存。” |
| A more frugal Chinese consumer is a worry for foreign businesses, many of which offer products that are not the low-cost option but a premium alternative. An Jun-Min, chief executive of Ginseng by Pharm, a South Korean producer of ginseng products, said he, too, has noticed Chinese “wallets have gotten thinner.” |
| 中国消费者变得更加节俭，这让外国企业感到担忧，许多外国企业提供的产品不是低价的选择，而是更优质的选择。韩国人参制品生产商真生人参公司的首席执行官安俊民（音）说，他也注意到中国人“钱包变薄了”。 |
| Mr. An said sales for the company’s main product, a 2 ounce bottle of a ginseng drink that sells for $18, peaked before the pandemic. The company shipped 600,000 bottles into China and Hong Kong in 2019. |
| 安俊民说，该公司的主要产品是一瓶售价18美元的2盎司（约合56克）人参饮料，在疫情暴发前销量达到顶峰。2019年，该公司向中国大陆和香港出口了60万瓶。 |
| Sales plunged in 2020 because it was hard to get products into the country during Covid lockdowns. Business has mostly bounced back, although it is still down 10 to 20 percent from the peak. |
| 由于在新冠疫情封锁期间很难将产品运进该国，2020年的销售额大幅下降。如今大部分业务已经反弹，虽然与峰值时期相比仍下降了10%到20%。 |
| While Mr. An said he is concerned about the economic slowdown, he remains optimistic that the market for health products in China, and a familiarity with ginseng — an aromatic root said to have health benefits — will continue to benefit sales. To hedge his bets, though, he is also seeking regulatory approval to sell in Europe. |
| 虽然安俊民说他对经济放缓感到担忧，但他仍然乐观地认为，中国保健品市场以及人们对人参——一种据说对健康有益的芳香植物根茎——的熟悉将继续促进销售。不过，为了对冲风险，他也在寻求欧洲销售的监管批准。 |
| That is a far cry from the unbridled optimism of the past. |
| 这与过去无忧无虑的乐观情绪相去甚远。 |
| In 2016, when China was its fastest growing and most profitable market, Kasper Rorsted, the chief executive at Adidas, declared that the country was “the star of the company.” Adidas invested aggressively to expand its foothold. It went from 9,000 stores in China in 2015 to its current 12,000, though only 500 are operated by Adidas. Then the music stopped. |
| 2016年，中国是阿迪达斯增长最快、利润最高的市场，该公司首席执行官卡斯珀·罗斯特德宣布中国是“公司的明星”。阿迪达斯大举投资以扩大其立足点。它在中国的门店从2015年的9000家增加到目前的1.2万家，尽管由阿迪达斯直营的只有500家。然后，好时光戛然而止。 |
| After initially projecting that sales in China would accelerate this year, Adidas ratcheted down expectations in May as Covid lockdowns continued to spread. The company said it now expects China revenue to “decline significantly” and that a sudden rebound is unlikely. |
| 阿迪达斯最初预计今年中国的销售将加速，后来，随着新冠疫情的封锁继续扩大，该公司在5月下调了预期。该公司表示，现在预计中国销售额将“大幅下降”，而且不太可能突然反弹。 |
| For now, Adidas remains undeterred. Mr. Rorsted said on a call with analysts that the company is not planning to slash costs or pull back from the country. Instead, it will “do whatever we can to double down and accelerate the growth.” |
| 目前，阿迪达斯没有退缩的打算。罗斯特德在与分析师的电话会议上表示，公司不打算削减成本或撤出该国。相反，它将“尽我们所能来加大投入并加速增长”。 |
| Many foreign companies had bet on the rise of a Chinese middle class as a dependable source of that growth. Bain & Company, a consulting firm, said it expects China to be the world’s largest luxury market by 2025, fueled in part by what Federica Levato, a senior partner, said is still “a big wave” of a rising middle class. |
| 许多外国公司都押注中国中产阶级的崛起是这一增长的可靠来源。咨询公司贝恩公司表示，预计到2025年，中国将成为全球最大的奢侈品市场，高级合伙人费德里卡·莱瓦托表示，部分原因仍然是中产阶级崛起的“大浪潮”。 |
| But those kinds of predictions look less enticing for some foreign companies that once relied heavily on the Chinese market. |
| 但对于一些曾经严重依赖中国市场的外国公司来说，这些预测似乎没有那么诱人。 |
| Kamps Hardwoods, a Michigan-based manufacturer of kiln-treated lumber used for homes and furniture, seized on the opportunity to expand in China — at first. At a Chinese trade show in 2015, Rob Kukowski, the company’s general manager, said a Chinese buyer stunned him with a huge offer to buy enough stock to fill 99 shipping containers. The $2 million order of lumber accounted for four months’ worth of business for Kamps. |
| 坎普斯硬木公司是一家总部位于密歇根州的木材制造商，为住房和家具提供窑干木材，在一开始的确抓住了在中国扩张的机会。在2015年的一次中国贸易展上，该公司总经理罗布·库科夫斯基表示，一位中国买家下了一张令他震惊的大订单，足够装满99个集装箱。这张200万美元的木材订单相当于坎普斯四个月的业务。 |
| Chinese buyers were so desperate for lumber back then that they would visit the company’s booth and refuse to leave until Mr. Kukowski accepted a million-dollar deal on the spot. By 2016, China accounted for 80 percent of the company’s sales. |
| 当时，中国买家极其需要木材，以至于他们来到公司的展位不肯离开，直到库科夫斯基当场接受了一笔价值百万美元的交易。到2016年，中国市场占公司销售额的80%。 |
| Kamps soon realized that it was hard to make a profit from the large Chinese orders because many buyers were not interested in quality and only wanted the cheapest possible price. The company started to focus its effort on finding customers in the United States and other overseas markets who were willing to pay more for a better product. |
| 坎普斯很快意识到，从中国的庞大订单中获利很难，因为许多买家对质量不感兴趣，只希望价格尽可能便宜。该公司开始将精力集中在美国和其他海外市场，寻找愿意为更好的产品支付更多费用的客户。 |
| It was fortuitous timing. When China raised tariffs on U.S. lumber in 2018 as part of a trade war, Kamps was better positioned to weather the downturn. Today, China accounts for only 10 percent of Kamps’s sales, but it still has a large indirect impact on the company. Mr. Kukowski said China is such a big buyer of U.S. lumber that a downward price war ensues throughout the industry when it stops spending. |
| 这一抉择恰逢其时。2018年，作为中美贸易战的一部分，中国提高了对美国木材的关税，而坎普斯在低迷时期处于较有利的位置。如今，中国仅占坎普斯销售额的10%，但仍对公司产生很大的间接影响。库科夫斯基说，中国是美国木材的大买家，以至于当中国停止消费时，整个行业都会发生价格战。 |
| “With their purchasing power being so strong and so much of our product going into that market,” Mr. Kukowski said. “Our industry is going to run into significant problems if their economy slows.” |
| “他们的购买力非常强，并且我们的很多产品都进入了那个市场，”库科夫斯基说。“如果他们的经济放缓，我们的行业将遇到重大问题。” |
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