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| The world could soon be on the brink of a global recession as the economies of the United States, China and Europe slow more sharply than anticipated amid a collision of crises, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday. | 国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二警告称，由于美国、中国和欧洲的经济在各种危机碰撞之下放缓的幅度超过了预期，世界可能很快就会处于全球衰退的边缘。 |
| In an update of the World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. said economic prospects had darkened significantly in recent months as war in Ukraine, inflation and a resurgent pandemic inflicted pain on every continent. If the thicket of threats continues to intensify, the world economy faces one of its weakest years since 1970, a period of intense stagflation across the globe. | 在最新发布的《世界经济展望》中，IMF表示，近几个月来，随着乌克兰战争、通货膨胀和大流行卷土重来，各大洲都受到了影响，经济前景明显黯淡。如果这些威胁继续加剧，世界经济将面临1970年全球严重滞涨以来最疲弱的年份之一。 |
| “The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in a blog post accompanying the report. Put simply, the outlook for the global economy is “increasingly gloomy,” he wrote. | “世界可能很快就会在全球衰退的边缘徘徊，距离上一次衰退仅两年时间，”IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维尔·古林查斯在伴随该报告发表的博客文章中写道。简而言之，全球经济前景“日益黯淡”，他写道。 |
| The I.M.F. downgraded its global growth forecasts from its April projections, predicting that output will fall to 3.2 percent in 2022, from 6.1 percent last year. Growth is expected to slow even further next year as central banks around the world raise interest rates in an effort to tame inflation by cooling their economies. | IMF将其对全球经济增长的预测从今年4月的预测下调，预计2022年的产出将从去年的6.1%降至3.2%。预计明年经济增长将进一步放缓，因为世界各国央行将提高利率，通过给经济降温来抑制通胀。 |
| Inflation is also rising more rapidly and broadly than the I.M.F. anticipated earlier this year. It now expects prices to rise 6.6 percent in rich countries and 9.5 percent in emerging markets and developing economies. | 通货膨胀的上升速度也比IMF今年早些时候的预期更为迅速和广泛。它现在预计富裕国家的物价将上涨6.6%，新兴市场和发展中经济体的物价将上涨9.5%。 |
| The international group also warned of another problem that could emerge as the Fed raises interest rates. Higher rates are expected to further strengthen the U.S. dollar as investors plow into Treasury bonds that offer lucrative returns. The I.M.F. said inflation in emerging markets could be amplified as the appreciation of the dollar made the imports that they bought with their local currencies more expensive. | 该国际组织还警告称，随着美联储加息，可能会出现另一个问题。随着投资者抢购可提供丰厚回报的国债，预计利率将走高，进一步加强美元。IMF表示，美元升值使新兴市场消费者使用当地货币购买的进口商品变得更加昂贵，这些市场的通胀可能会被放大。 |
| Poor countries are already struggling to cope with a food crisis, as exports of grains and cooking oils from Russia and Ukraine have been disrupted by the war, fueling a surge in food costs and raising fears about the prospects of famine and social unrest. | 在贫穷国家正疲于应对粮食危机的同时，俄罗斯和乌克兰因战争而中断谷物和食用油出口，导致食品成本飙升，并引发人们对饥荒和社会动荡前景的担忧。 |
| “The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside,” the I.M.F. said. | IMF表示：“前景面临的风险压倒性地偏向下行。” |
| The economic storm facing the world is the result of diminished consumer spending power in the United States, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe’s economies, and the property crisis and lockdowns in China, where Beijing continues to take severe measures to contain coronavirus outbreaks. | 美国消费者购买力的下降，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对欧洲经济的影响，中国的房地产危机以及因北京继续采取严厉措施遏制新冠疫情而实施的封锁，种种因素构成了世界面临的经济风暴。 |
| The I.M.F. underscored that its forecasts were subject to considerable uncertainty and that more downgrades could come. It pointed to the prospect of a sudden shutdown of Russian gas flows to Europe, the stubborn persistence of inflation and more widespread lockdowns in China as looming threats. | IMF强调，其预测存在相当大的不确定性，可能还会出现更多降级。报告指出，迫在眉睫的威胁可能包括俄罗斯突然关闭向欧洲输送的天然气、通货膨胀顽固持续以及中国实施更广泛的封锁。 |
| “Under this scenario, both the United States and the euro area experience near-zero growth next year, with negative knock-on effects for the rest of the world,” Mr. Gourinchas said. | “在此局面下，美国与欧元区明年的经济增长都将趋近于零，且会对世界其他地区产生负面连锁反应，”古林查斯表示。 |
| According to the report, the likelihood of a global recession is rising. It said the probability of a recession starting in one of the Group of 7 advanced economies was now nearly 15 percent, four times its usual level. And it said some indicators suggested that the United States was already in a “technical” recession, which the I.M.F. defines as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. | 该报告显示，全球衰退的可能性正在上升。报告中称，七国集团某一发达经济体出现衰退的可能性目前已接近15%，是通常概率的四倍。一些指标也表明，美国已经进入了“技术性”衰退——IMF对此的定义是连续两个季度的负增长。 |
| Data set for release on Thursday is expected to show that the U.S. economy grew little or perhaps shrank in the second quarter of 2022. | 预计于周四发布的数据显示，美国经济在2022年第二季度几乎没有增长，甚至可能出现萎缩。 |
| At a news conference following the release of the report, Mr. Gourinchas added that the I.M.F. was not currently projecting that the United States was in a recession and that even if its economy contracted in the second quarter, defining a recession can be complicated. | 在报告发布后的新闻发布会上，古林查斯还表示，IMF目前并未判定美国陷入衰退，即便在第二季度出现收缩，要确定美国经济是否衰退依然是个复杂的问题。 |
| “The recession in the way it is defined typically is looking at more than just output, you want to take into account the strength of the labor market,” Mr. Gourinchas said. “The general assessment as to whether the economy is in a recession overall is a little bit more complex.” | “通常而言，定义经济衰退的指标不仅限于经济产出，还需要考虑劳动力市场的强劲程度，”古林查斯说。“对于经济是否处于衰退的总体评估是要更复杂一些的。” |
| Mr. Gourinchas also suggested that the kind of “soft landing” that the Fed was trying to engineer — where it cools the economy just enough without setting off a recession — would be difficult to achieve. As the labor market cools, even a small “shock” could tip the economy into a recession, he said. | 古林查斯还表示，美联储想要实现的那种“软着陆”——即在不引发衰退的前提下给经济降温——将难以实现。他说，随着劳动力市场降温，即便是很小的“冲击”也可能导致经济陷入衰退。 |
| “The current environment suggests that the likelihood that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession is actually quite narrow under our current projections,” he said. | “根据我们目前的预测，美国经济要在眼下的环境中避免衰退，实际可能性是很小的，”他说。 |
| The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, and policymakers have indicated they expect additional rate increases throughout the year as they try to stamp out inflation. | 美联储预计将在周三将利率上调0.75个百分点，决策者暗示将在今年全年进一步加息，以遏制通胀。 |
| The darkening economic prospects in the United States and abroad pose trouble for President Biden and his Democratic Party ahead of midterm elections that will determine who controls Congress. | 在决定谁将控制国会的中期选举到来前，美国国内外愈发黯淡的经济前景给拜登总统和他领导的民主党制造了难题。 |
| On Monday, Mr. Biden made the case that the U.S. economy remained strong. | 拜登在周一表示，美国经济势头依然强劲。 |
| “We’re not going to be in a recession, in my view,” he said, pointing to the low jobless rate and expressing hope that growth will stay steady even as it slows. “God willing, I don’t think we’re going to see a recession.” | “在我看来，我们不会陷入衰退，”他指出美国的低失业率，并称即便增长放缓，经济仍能保持稳定。“如果不出意外，我认为我们不会看到衰退。” |
| The I.MF. noted that growth in the United States had been weaker than expected in the first half of the year and that there was “significantly less momentum” in private consumption because of inflation and the expectation of higher borrowing costs. | IMF指出，美国今年上半年的增长弱于预期，且由于通胀和预期借贷成本上升，私人消费的“增长势头明显减弱”。 |
| While the I.M.F. downgraded most economies, it projected that Russia’s would shrink less than previously expected — contracting 6 percent this year rather than the previously forecast 8.5 percent. The I.M.F. said that Russian oil and nonenergy exports were holding up better than anticipated and that Western sanctions were not having as much bite as expected. | 尽管IMF下调了大部分经济体的评级，但预计俄罗斯今年经济萎缩的幅度将小于此前预期，从8.5%降至6%。IMF表示，俄罗斯石油和非能源产品出口的情况好于预期，西方制裁的打击没有预料中那么大。 |
| “Domestic demand is also showing some resilience thanks to containment of the effect of the sanctions on the domestic financial sector and a lower-than-anticipated weakening of the labor market,” the I.M.F. report said. | IMF的报告中指出，“由于制裁对其国内金融部门的影响有限，且劳动力市场并非预期中那样疲软，（俄罗斯）内需也呈现出了一定的韧性。” |
| The I.M.F. said Russia’s recession this year was still significant and that its economic output could deteriorate further next year as the impact of the sanctions intensified. | IMF表示，俄罗斯今年的经济衰退依然严重，随着制裁升级，明年的经济产出可能出现进一步低迷。 |
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