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| TOKYO — Fumio Kishida has spent years trying to emerge from the shadow of Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan who was gunned down at a campaign rally on July 8. |
| 东京——多年来，岸田文雄一直试图走出前首相安倍晋三的阴影。后者在7月8日的竞选集会上被枪杀。 |
| Ever since both were elected in 1993 to the Diet, as Japan’s Parliament is known, Mr. Abe had been the more prominent politician. A charismatic presence, he outshone Mr. Kishida, a party stalwart who can be so stiff that a schoolgirl recently asked him about the last time he truly laughed. (His answer: whenever his beloved baseball team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, wins.) |
| 自从两人在1993年当选为国会议员以来，安倍晋三一直是更为突出的政治人物，其魅力令岸田文雄相形见绌。岸田文雄是党内中坚力量，有时会表现得非常僵硬，以至于最近有个女学生问他，他上一次发自内心地笑出来是什么时候。（他的回答是：只要他心爱的棒球队广岛东洋鲤鱼队获胜。） |
| After Mr. Kishida finally — on the second try — ascended to the prime minister’s office, Mr. Abe continued to niggle him from the sidelines. He floated controversial ideas, like a proposal that Japan host American nuclear weapons, and warned that financial markets might see Mr. Kishida’s economic policies as “socialist” and react badly to them. |
| 在岸田文雄经过第二次尝试终于登上首相宝座后，安倍晋三继续在一旁试图对他施加影响。他提出了一些有争议的想法，比如建议日本部署美国的核武器，并警告，金融市场可能会将岸田文雄的经济政策视为“社会主义”，并对其做出不良反应。 |
| Now, after the assassination, Mr. Kishida, 64, is trying to honor Mr. Abe while proving that he can set himself apart from the legacy of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. |
| 如今，在暗杀事件发生后，64岁的岸田文雄试图向安倍晋三致敬，同时证明自己有能力摆脱这位日本在任时间最长的首相留下的政治影响。 |
| “A couple of years ago, Kishida was almost considered as one who had no chance to become prime minister,” said Mikitaka Masuyama, a professor of political science at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. Now, he said, “we have to figure out whether Kishida really has the ability and leadership qualities to run the government and control” his Liberal Democratic Party. |
| “几年前，岸田文雄几乎被认为是没有机会成为首相的人，”东京的国立政策研究大学院大学政治学教授增山干高说。他说，现在“我们必须弄清楚岸田文雄是否真的有能力和领导素质来管理和控制”他所在的自民党。 |
| The looming question for Mr. Kishida is how he will spend his political capital, bolstered by a victory in elections to the Upper House of Parliament a week ago. The prime minister had already indicated that he would move to enact Mr. Abe’s most cherished goals, including a revision of the pacifist clause in the Constitution that renounces war, as well as an increase in defense spending. |
| 岸田文雄面临的一个迫在眉睫的问题是他将如何利用自己的政治资本。一周前，自民党在参议院选举中的胜利，为他提供了支持。首相表示，他将采取行动，实施安倍晋三最重视的目标，包括修改宪法中放弃战争的和平条款，以及增加国防开支。 |
| Last week, Mr. Kishida was quick to say he would take up the “difficult issues” that Mr. Abe had “poured his passion into” but “couldn’t accomplish.” He promised to “drastically enhance Japan’s defense capabilities within five years.” |
| 上周，岸田文雄迅速表示，他将着手处理安倍晋三“倾注热情”但“无法完成”的“棘手问题”。他承诺“在五年内大幅提高日本的防御能力”。 |
| As much as Mr. Abe’s death, geopolitical circumstances will dictate Mr. Kishida’s choices. The war in Ukraine and rising military threats from China and North Korea have prompted Mr. Kishida, who had previously cast himself as a liberal-leaning, dovish member of the Liberal Democrats, to take on a more hawkish mantle. |
| 与安倍晋三的去世一样，地缘政治环境也会左右岸田文雄的选择。乌克兰战争，以及来自中国和朝鲜日益增长的军事威胁，促使岸田文雄担负起更加鹰派的角色——他此前一直自称是自民党中倾向自由主义的鸽派成员。 |
| Given the regional pressures, “raising defense spending is not optional anymore for Tokyo,” said Titli Basu, an associate fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Dehli. |
| 考虑到地区压力，“增加国防开支对东京来说已经不是可做可不做的了，” 新德里国防研究与分析研究所副研究员蒂特利·巴苏说。 |
| Most Japanese recognize those threats: in polls, a majority backs increasing the defense budget. And while the public once vociferously opposed revising the pacifist Constitution, surveys in the spring indicated that a majority would now consider it. |
| 大多数日本人都意识到了这些威胁：在民意调查中，大多数人支持增加国防预算。虽然公众一度强烈反对修改和平宪法，但今年春天的调查显示，大多数人现在会考虑修改。 |
| Mr. Kishida is “saying things that in the past, whoever said it would have had political division,” said Rahm Emanuel, the United States ambassador to Japan. “There is consensus-building that is partly to his credit, and partly to events.” |
| 岸田文雄“说的那些话，在过去不管是谁说出来，都会引起政治分歧”，美国驻日本大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔说。“共识的建立部分归功于他，部分要归功于发生的事件。” |
| In the nine months since the party chose Mr. Kishida as prime minister, he has steadily extended the unstinting diplomacy that was a hallmark of Mr. Abe’s reign. |
| 自自民党选择岸田文雄担任首相以来的九个月里，他一直在稳步发展安倍晋三统治时期的标志行为——不遗余力的外交活动。 |
| He has also quietly differentiated himself from his predecessor. |
| 他也悄悄表明自己同前任的差异。 |
| When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Mr. Kishida strongly condemned Russia’s actions without hesitation and swiftly enacted sanctions. Eight years earlier, Mr. Abe, keen to foster a relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin, had dragged his feet on imposing sanctions after Russia annexed Crimea. |
| 当俄罗斯2月入侵乌克兰时，岸田文雄毫不犹豫地强烈谴责了俄罗斯的行为，并迅速实施了制裁。八年前，渴望与俄罗斯总统普京发展关系的安倍晋三在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后迟迟没有实施制裁。 |
| Since October, Mr. Kishida has visited 11 countries. Last month, he became the first Japanese prime minister to attend a NATO meeting. In May, when Mr. Kishida visited Vietnam, one of a handful of countries that had voted against a United Nations resolution to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, he and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh agreed on the importance of an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, and Mr. Chinh announced $500,000 in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. |
| 自去年10月以来，岸田文雄已经访问了11个国家。上个月，他成为第一位出席北约会议的日本首相。今年5月，岸田文雄访问越南时，与越南总理范明政就乌克兰立即停火的重要性达成了一致，后者宣布向乌克兰提供50万美元的人道主义援助。越南是投票反对联合国暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会席位的少数几个国家之一。 |
| Like Mr. Abe, Mr. Kishida came to politics as the son and grandson of members of Parliament. |
| 与安倍晋三一样，进入政坛的岸田文雄家中也是三代国会议员。 |
| As young lawmakers who entered the Lower House in the same year, Mr. Kishida and Mr. Abe sometimes worked as a pair. Shinobu Konno, a political commentator, recently recalled on ANN News, a Japanese television network, that the two traveled to Taiwan on a diplomatic mission in 1997, with Mr. Abe as the head of the group and Mr. Kishida as his deputy. |
| 作为同年进入众议院的年轻议员，岸田文雄和安倍晋三有时会结伴而行。政治评论员今野忍最近在日本电视网络ANN News上回忆说，两人曾经作为外交代表团前往台湾，安倍晋三是团长，岸田文雄是副团长。 |
| “Mr. Kishida was a strong drinker but a boring talker,” said Mr. Konno. “And Mr. Abe was a good talker but not a strong drinker, so they divided their responsibilities. Mr. Kishida was in charge of drinking and would compete with the stronger Taiwanese drinkers, while Mr. Abe was in charge of talking and getting everyone excited.” |
| “岸田文雄酒量很大，但说话无聊，”今野忍回忆。“安倍晋三能说会道，但是酒量不行，所以他们分工负责。岸田文雄负责喝酒，和台湾酒量更大的人拼酒，而安倍晋三负责说话，让所有人兴奋起来。” |
| During Mr. Abe’s brief first stint as prime minister from 2006 to 2007, Mr. Kishida served as state minister in charge of Okinawa and Northern Territories affairs. After Mr. Abe returned to power in 2012, he appointed his old friend as foreign minister, a post that Mr. Kishida would hold longer than anyone else in Japan’s post-World War II history. |
| 安倍晋三于2006年至2007年短暂担任首相期间，岸田曾担任负责冲绳和北部领土事务的国务大臣。安倍晋三2012年重新掌权后，任命他的老朋友为外相，在日本“二战”后的历史上，岸田担任这一职务的时间比任何人都长。 |
| But when Mr. Abe resigned in 2020, he threw his weight behind another man, Yoshihide Suga, to succeed him. Mr. Suga beat Mr. Kishida by a party vote of nearly four to one. |
| 但当安倍晋三在2020年辞职时，他大力支持菅义伟作为他的继任者。菅义伟以近四比一的党内票数击败了岸田。 |
| A year later, after Mr. Suga was forced to resign and Mr. Kishida ran again for the party leadership, Mr. Abe, who led the L.D.P.’s largest and most right-leaning faction in Parliament, handpicked a different successor. Only after Sanae Takaichi failed to get enough votes in a first round of party voting did Mr. Abe support Mr. Kishida, the eventual victor. |
| 一年后，菅义伟被迫辞职，岸田再次竞选自民党总裁，而安倍晋三——领导着自民党在议会中最大、最右倾的派系——亲自挑选了另一名继任者。高市早苗在第一轮党内投票中未能获得足够的选票后，安倍才支持最终获胜者岸田。 |
| Mr. Kishida started out by trying to distinguish himself from Mr. Abe, offering a “new capitalism” as a departure from Mr. Abe’s well-known economic platform, dubbed “Abenomics.” Mr. Kishida said he wanted to narrow income inequality and proposed raising some taxes. |
| 岸田一开始试图将自己与安倍晋三区分开来，他提出了一种“新资本主义”，与安倍晋三著名的经济纲领“安倍经济学”背道而驰。岸田说他想缩小收入不平等，并提议提高一些税收。 |
| He has since ratcheted back that rhetoric, and he has seemed to embrace Mr. Abe’s calls for doubling defense spending and amending the Constitution. |
| 此后，他收回了这种言论，他似乎接受了安倍晋三关于将国防开支增加一倍和修改宪法的呼吁。 |
| Still, analysts see glimmers of Mr. Kishida trying to be his own man. |
| 尽管如此，分析人士还是看到了岸田试图自己做主的苗头。 |
| Giving the keynote speech last month at a security forum hosted by Singapore, he noted that Germany had announced it would raise its defense budget to 2 percent of its annual economic output — a goal that Mr. Abe had sought for Japan. But Mr. Kishida did not cite a numerical target, instead pledging a “substantial increase.” What’s more, he said Japan would “proceed within the scope of our Constitution.” |
| 上个月在新加坡主办的一个安全论坛上发表的主题演讲中，他指出，德国已宣布将其国防预算提高到年度经济产出的2%——这是安倍晋三为日本寻求的目标。但岸田没有引用数字目标，而是承诺“大幅增加”。更重要的是，他说日本将“在我们的宪法范围内行事”。 |
| Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said she saw Mr. Kishida as “pushing back on some of the stuff that Abe was pushing on him in the court of public opinion.” |
| 华盛顿史汀生中心日本项目主任辰巳由纪说，她认为岸田“在舆论场对安倍强加给他的一些事情进行了回击”。 |
| As recently as Thursday, Mr. Kishida, referring to defense spending, said that “we must be realistic and concrete in our discussions but at the same time, not be numbers-oriented.” |
| 就在周四，岸田在谈到国防开支时表示，“我们在讨论中必须现实和具体，但同时不能以数字为导向。” |
| Economic reality may undercut the possibility of setting drastic targets. With inflation rising, the yen depreciating, coronavirus infections increasing and, in the longer term, the population aging and the birthrate falling, Mr. Kishida may find he doesn’t have the money to pay for all government priorities. |
| 经济现实可能限制了设定激进目标的可能性。随着通货膨胀率上升、日元贬值、新冠病毒感染增加——以及从长远来看——人口老龄化和出生率下降，岸田可能会发现他没有钱支付政府的所有优先事项。 |
| Japan’s traditional pace of change may be on Mr. Kishida’s side. Consensus-building is valued, and incremental progress — rather than radical transformation — is the norm. |
| 日本传统的变革速度可能对岸田有利。人们重视达成共识，渐进式的进步是常态，而非激进的转变。 |
| “It has been a slow evolution over time where the increasing chipping away by North Korea and China at Japanese security has increased awareness in the public and the politicians that more needs to be done,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation specializing in Japanese security and foreign policy. “As long as Kishida continues to go slow and steady, I do think he’ll be OK.” |
| 专门研究日本安全和外交政策的杰弗里·霍农是兰德公司的资深政治学家，他说：“随着时间的推移，这是一个缓慢的演变过程，朝鲜和中国对日本安全的日益侵蚀促使公众和政界人士意识到，他们还需要做更多工作。只要岸田继续缓慢而稳定，我认为他会做好的。” |
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