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| BRUSSELS — Commenting on the visit of Vladimir V. Putin to Iran, a member of the Russian Parliament and television talking head, Yevgeny G. Popov, said that the two countries hoped to form an “axis of good,” mocking former President George W. Bush’s description of Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an “axis of evil.” |
| 布鲁塞尔——俄罗斯议会议员兼电视主持人叶夫根尼·波波夫在评论普京访问伊朗时表示，两国希望形成一个“正直轴心”，这是在嘲讽前总统乔治·布什，后者将伊朗、伊拉克和朝鲜称为“邪恶轴心”。 |
| Trolling American foreign-policy blunders and rhetoric is a popular sport in Russia, from Mr. Putin, the president, on down, but the growing affection between Russia and Iran is that of two isolated, sanctions-stricken countries whose main connection is their active opposition to the United States, its allies and its domination of the multilateral world order. |
| 在俄罗斯，上至普京，下至百姓，人们都把嘲弄美国的外交政策失误和言论当作一项流行的娱乐，但俄罗斯和伊朗之间与日俱增的感情是两个孤立的、受制裁国家的感情，它们的主要共同点是两国都积极反对美国和美国的盟友，以及美国在多边世界秩序的主导地位。 |
| While the United States likes to wrap its alliances in grandiloquent words about shared values and democracy, Russia, Iran and China, Moscow’s other openly supportive pal and American rival, are far more transactional in their connections. |
| 美国喜欢用关于共同价值观和民主的华丽词藻来包装其联盟，而俄罗斯、伊朗和中国（另一个对莫斯科表示公开支持的伙伴和美国的竞争对手）在彼此关系中有着更强的交易性。 |
| But transactional relations do not make for lasting alliances or disguise the strains within them. |
| 但交易关系并不能促成持久的联盟，也不能掩饰其中的紧张关系。 |
| “Russia is isolated on the global stage in a way it’s never been,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a former American official who is a professor at Georgetown University. “Putin is looking for recognition and acceptance wherever he can get it, and that he can get it in Tehran speaks volumes.” |
| “俄罗斯在全球舞台上遭到前所未有的孤立，”前美国官员、乔治城大学教授查尔斯·库普钱说。“普京在一切可能的地方寻求认可和接受，他能在德黑兰得到这些就说明了一切。” |
| Even China, which has stood by its anti-American partnership with Russia, “has carefully kept its distance from the war in Ukraine,” Mr. Kupchan said. “And even though the lion’s share of the world’s countries aren’t enforcing the sanctions regime against Russia, they get it: that Russia’s invasion was a bald act of aggression.” |
| 即使是坚持与俄罗斯建立反美伙伴关系的中国，“也小心翼翼地与乌克兰战争保持距离”，库普钱说。“即使世界上绝大部分国家没有对俄罗斯执行制裁措施，他们也明白，俄罗斯的入侵是一种赤裸裸的侵略行为。” |
| Neither Russia nor China has eager allies or much soft power, said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is research director for the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations. |
| 总部设在柏林的欧洲外交关系委员会的研究主任、前国务院官员杰里米·夏皮罗说，俄罗斯和中国都没有积极的盟友，也没有太多的软实力。 |
| “No one really likes China, but everyone understands their power,” Mr. Shapiro said. “Russia is worse — they have the soft power of a drunken porcupine. But they have a lot of assets, too, including energy, and the will to use their military.” |
| “没有人真正喜欢中国，但每个人都了解其实力，”夏皮罗说。“俄罗斯更糟糕——其软实力等同于一只喝醉的豪猪。但俄罗斯有很多资源，包括能源，而且有使用军事手段的意愿。” |
| Most of the world just wants to stay out of what it sees as a superpower conflict being fought over Ukraine, said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst with the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. If half the world’s population is staying publicly out of this war, half of that half is India and China, Mr. Heisbourg said, and the United States has been largely successful in keeping China from aiding Russia militarily in Ukraine and in not heavily pushing India, which is no friend of China’s and remains dependent on Russian arms. |
| 巴黎战略研究基金会的国防分析师、法国人弗朗索瓦·海斯伯格说，世界上大多数国家认为在乌克兰发生的是超级大国的冲突，它们只想置身事外。海斯堡说，如果世界上有一半的人公开置身于这场战争之外，这部分的一半就是印度和中国，而美国基本成功阻止了中国向俄方在乌克兰提供军事方面的援助，而且对印度也基本避免了过多逼迫。印度不是中国的朋友，而且还得依赖俄罗斯的武器。 |
| With Western sanctions having a “colossal” impact on Russia, in Mr. Putin’s own words, Moscow needs places to do business, especially as the sanctions bite harder over time. Iran, isolated by even tougher American economic sanctions over its nuclear program, is happy to do business with Russia, Mr. Kupchan said. |
| 用普京的话来说，西方制裁对俄罗斯产生的影响是“巨大”的，莫斯科需要做生意的地方，尤其是随着时间的推移，制裁的力度会越来越大。库普钱说，伊朗因美国对其核计划实施更严厉的经济制裁而被孤立，它很乐于跟俄罗斯做生意。 |
| Russia also needs more surveillance of the battleground in Ukraine, and Washington has revealed Moscow’s interest in buying both armed drones and observation drones from Tehran. |
| 俄罗斯还需要对乌克兰的战场进行更多监视，华盛顿透露，莫斯科有意从德黑兰购买武装无人机和侦查无人机。 |
| Russia and Iran have a long and complicated history. Ties and trade improved after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was the first country to recognize the Islamic Republic after the country’s 1979 revolution, though Moscow went on to back Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. In general, the two countries have had a mutual interest in pushing back American power in places such as Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. |
| 俄罗斯和伊朗有着悠久而复杂的历史。苏联是1979年伊朗革命后第一个承认这个伊斯兰共和国的国家，苏联解体后，两国关系和贸易有所改善，尽管莫斯科在上世纪80年代的两伊战争中支持伊拉克。总的来说，在伊拉克、叙利亚和阿富汗等地击退美国的力量符合双方的共同利益。 |
| Relations improved with the deterioration of Russia’s ties to the West and the steady imposition of sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. In 2021, mutual trade hit record levels, though at a relatively modest amount of about $3.5 billion. |
| 随着俄罗斯与西方关系的恶化，以及俄罗斯在2014年吞并克里米亚后持续受到制裁，两国关系已经有所改善。2021年，双方贸易达到了创纪录的水平，尽管金额相对较小，约为35亿美元。 |
| But there are important fissures, too. Russia does not share Iran’s enmity toward Israel and does not want Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon. Moscow has been largely helpful in negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal between six world powers and Iran that former President Donald J. Trump abandoned in 2018, and that President Biden has been trying fitfully to resurrect. |
| 但双方也存在很大分歧。俄罗斯不认同伊朗对以色列的敌意，也不希望德黑兰发展核武器。为了恢复六个世界大国与伊朗在2015年达成的核协议，莫斯科在谈判中提供了很大帮助，前总统唐纳德·特朗普于2018年放弃了该协议，而拜登总统一直在试图勉强恢复该协议。 |
| Mr. Biden and Israeli leaders repeated their promises last week to do everything necessary to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, including military action. And Russia has no interest in a Western military campaign against Iran, which becomes a real possibility if there is no renewed nuclear deal. |
| 拜登和以色列领导人上星期重申了他们的承诺，将采取一切必要措施阻止伊朗获得核弹，包括军事行动。俄罗斯对西方针对伊朗的军事行动没有兴趣，如果没有重新达成核协议，这种军事行动将成为一种现实的可能性。 |
| Russia and Iran are also competing to sell their sanctioned and discounted oil to China and other countries. Though the quality of the crude is different in both countries, it is difficult to imagine them forming some sort of cartel to sell sanctioned oil, Mr. Shapiro said. |
| 俄罗斯和伊朗也在竞相向中国和其他国家低价出售两国受到制裁的石油。夏皮罗说，尽管两国原油质量不同，但很难想象它们会形成某种卡特尔来销售受制裁的石油。 |
| And Russia has other issues with Iran, like the smuggling of illegal drugs. |
| 俄罗斯与伊朗还有其他问题，比如走私非法毒品。 |
| On Syria, however, they are largely aligned in their longtime support of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. And Syria was the stated focus of the summit in Tehran, which included the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. |
| 然而，在叙利亚问题上，他们在支持叙利亚总统阿萨德政权方面基本是一致的。叙利亚是此次德黑兰峰会的焦点，土耳其总统埃尔多安也参加了此次峰会。 |
| Turkey has no interest in being part of any new axis or alliance with Russia or Iran. Instead, Ankara has very artfully managed a foreign policy that is diversified and open to all sides and that gives it considerable leverage with both Moscow and Washington. |
| 土耳其对于成为任何新轴心，或与俄罗斯或伊朗结盟都没有兴趣。相反，安卡拉非常巧妙地管理着一个多元化的、向各方开放的外交政策，这使它在莫斯科和华盛顿面前都有着相当大的影响力。 |
| “Turkey is skillfully walking a middle path, signaling to the Americans that it won’t just be a compliant ally and do what we want, but they’re signaling the same thing to the Russians,” Mr. Shapiro said. |
| “土耳其正在巧妙地走一条中间道路，它向美国人发出信号，表明自己不会只是一个顺从的盟友，而是按照自己的意愿行事，但他们也在向俄罗斯人发出同样的信号，”夏皮罗说。 |
| Mr. Heisbourg agreed. |
| 海斯伯格对此表示同意。 |
| “The Turks continue to play both sides against the middle and they are in a very strong position to do so,” he said. “It’s a highly profitable game politically, economically and strategically — but that excludes any new alliance.” |
| “土耳其人继续搞鹬蚌相争、渔翁得利那一套，他们在这方面处于非常有利的地位，”他说。“这是一个在政治、经济和战略上都非常有利可图的游戏——但这不包括任何新的联盟。” |
| Turkey has created a vital role for itself as the mediator between Russia and Ukraine — effectively the mediator between Washington, NATO and Russia. It has worked with all sides, including the United Nations, to try to get Ukrainian (and Russian) grain exports out through the Black Sea to the developing world. |
| 土耳其为自己创造了一个至关重要的角色，成为俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的调解人——实际上是华盛顿、北约和俄罗斯之间的调解人。它与包括联合国在内的各方合作，试图让乌克兰（以及俄罗斯）的粮食通过黑海出口到发展中国家。 |
| Mr. Erdogan has bought Russian antiaircraft missiles and has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, which has irked Washington. But Turkey remains a key NATO ally of the United States, signed a tough anti-Russian communiqué at the NATO summit in Madrid, has sold Ukraine weapons and drones that are helping to kill Russians, and has removed its block on the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, at least for now. |
| 埃尔多安购买了俄罗斯的防空导弹，并没有加入西方对俄罗斯的制裁，这让华盛顿感到恼火。但土耳其仍然是美国在北约的重要盟友，在马德里北约峰会上签署了一份强硬的反俄公报，向乌克兰出售了有助于杀死俄罗斯人的武器和无人机，并停止对芬兰和瑞典加入北约进行阻碍，至少目前如此。 |
| Turkey’s mediation may bring even more benefits, Mr. Kupchan said. |
| 库普钱说，土耳其的斡旋可能会带来更多好处。 |
| Mr. Erdogan has credibility and channels to both Moscow and Washington, as well as to Kyiv, and “if he can broker a deal to get Ukrainian grain flowing again, that might be the first step to pivot to diplomacy, a confidence-building measure that would require concessions by both Russia and Ukraine, but could be done under the rubric of humanitarian aid,” Mr. Kupchan said. |
| 埃尔多安在莫斯科、华盛顿以及基辅都受到信任，而且有自己的渠道，“如果他能促成一项协议，让乌克兰的粮食重新流通起来，这可能是向外交途径转移的第一步，这是一项建立信任的措施，需要俄罗斯和乌克兰双方都做出让步，但可以在人道主义援助的名义下完成”，库普钱说。 |
| What Turkey clearly wanted from this trilateral summit, however, was narrower — a green light to conduct a new military incursion into northern Syria against the Syrian Kurds, who Mr. Erdogan says are allies with the P.K.K., or Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which he and the West consider terrorists. |
| 然而，土耳其在这次三边峰会上明确想要获得的东西却要具体得多——得到允许，向叙利亚北部的库尔德人发动新的军事入侵。埃尔多安说，叙利亚库尔德人是库尔德工人党的盟友，埃尔多安和西方国家都认为库尔德工人党是恐怖分子。 |
| Attacking the Kurds is popular in Turkey, even among Mr. Erdogan’s opposition, and is part of his effort to win re-election next year, Mr. Heisbourg said. And Syria is the only issue where the policies of all three countries intersect, even though their interests are different. |
| 海斯伯格说，攻击库尔德人在土耳其很受支持，甚至在埃尔多安的反对派中也是如此，这也是他为争取明年连任所做的努力之一。叙利亚是这三个国家在政策上的唯一交集点，尽管它们的利益各不相同。 |
| Iran and Russia have been the firmest allies of Mr. Assad. But Turkey has backed armed groups fighting for his removal; has sent its troops into northern Syria; and has kept Syrian, Iranian and Russian troops from conquering Idlib Province, still mostly controlled by anti-Assad rebels. |
| 伊朗和俄罗斯一直是阿萨德最坚定的盟友。但土耳其支持为清除阿萨德而战的武装团体；派遣军队进入叙利亚北部；并阻止叙利亚、伊朗和俄罗斯军队征服主要由反阿萨德叛军控制的伊德利卜省。 |
| “With so much leverage, now is a great time for Erdogan to beat up on the Kurds,” Mr. Heisbourg said. |
| “有了这么多的筹码，现在是埃尔多安打击库尔德人的好时机，”海斯伯格说。 |
| While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, warned Turkey against further attacks in Syria, Mr. Erdogan was unfazed. And it’s likely that Russia does not much care, so long as the Turkish intervention is limited to the north. More likely, Mr. Heisbourg suggested, Mr. Erdogan used the meeting in Tehran to inform Russia and Iran of his plans and to try to avoid unnecessary confrontation. |
| 尽管伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊警告土耳其不要在叙利亚发动进一步袭击，埃尔多安却不为所动。而且，只要土耳其的干预仅限于北方，俄罗斯很可能并不怎么在乎。海斯伯格认为，埃尔多安更有可能利用在德黑兰的会晤，向俄罗斯和伊朗通报他的计划，并试图避免不必要的对抗。 |
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