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| JERUSALEM — President Joe Biden left Washington for a four-day trip to the Middle East on Tuesday to try to slow down an accelerating Iranian nuclear program, speed up the flow of oil to U.S. pumps and reshape the relationship with Saudi Arabia without seeming to embrace a crown prince who the CIA believes was behind the killing of a prominent dissident who lived in the United States. | 耶路撒冷——周二，美国总统拜登从华盛顿启程，前往中东进行为期四天的访问。此行是为了试图减缓正在加速的伊朗核计划、加快中东石油向美国输送的速度，以及重塑与沙特阿拉伯的关系，但又不给人以他接受了沙特王储的印象——中央情报局认为这位王储是一名曾侨居美国的著名异见人士遇害的幕后主使。 |
| All three efforts are fraught with political dangers for a president who knows the region well, but returns for the first time in six years with far less leverage than he would like to shape events. | 这三件事对拜登来说都充满了政治危险，虽然他是一位非常了解中东地区的美国总统，但这是他六年来首次再度回到这一地区，而且是在美国的影响力远不如他所希望的程度之际。 |
| His 18-month-long negotiation to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal has ground to a stop, stymying the diplomatic effort to force Tehran to ship out of the country most of the nuclear fuel it is now enriching to near-bomb-grade levels. | 他为恢复2015年签署的伊朗核协议而进行的长达18个月的谈判已陷入僵局，迫使德黑兰将大部分核燃料运出伊朗的外交努力已经受阻，而德黑兰目前正在将这些核燃料浓缩到接近核弹级的浓度。 |
| And while no explicit deal is expected to be announced on raising Saudi oil production — out of concern that it might come across as unseemly, a reward for easing the crown prince’s return to the diplomatic fold — that is likely to come in a month or two, officials say. | 官员们表示，虽然预计此行不会宣布沙特将提高石油产量的明确协议（因为担心这样做可能看起来不适当，会使人觉得那是对让沙特王储重返外交舞台的回报），但这个宣布可能会在一两个月后出来。 |
| Administration officials know they will get harsh criticism from within their own party when the inevitable photos appear of the president meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, less than two years after Biden promised to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” on the international stage. That promise was prompted by the murder of the dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post journalist, in 2018. | 拜登政府的官员们知道，媒体上不可避免地出现总统与王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼会晤的照片后，他们将受到党内的严厉批评。不到两年前，拜登曾经做出承诺，要让沙特阿拉伯在国际舞台上成为“被唾弃的国家”。沙特异见人士、《华盛顿邮报》撰稿人贾迈勒·卡舒吉2018年被谋杀，导致拜登做出了那个承诺。 |
| Biden has often cast this era in history as a contest between democracy and autocracy, and barred Cuba and Venezuela from a recent summit of the Americas in Los Angeles for their repressive practices. But he has justified visiting Saudi Arabia as an exercise in realism. | 拜登经常把历史的这个阶段描述为民主与专制之间的较量，并因为古巴和委内瑞拉的镇压行为，禁止两国出席最近在洛杉矶举行的美洲国家首脑会议。但他为访问沙特阿拉伯辩解，称其为一种务实的做法。 |
| “My aim was to reorient — but not rupture — the relationship,” Biden wrote in an opinion piece in The Washington Post last weekend. Saudi “energy resources are vital for mitigating the impact on global supplies of Russia’s war in Ukraine,” he said, in his only acknowledgment of the reality that Mohammed’s strategy — wait until the United States needed Saudi Arabia again — was paying off. | “我的目的是重新定位两国的关系，而不是让关系破裂，”拜登上周末在《华盛顿邮报》发表的观点文章中写道。他在文章中还说，沙特的“能源资源对缓解俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争对全球供应的影响至关重要”，这是拜登对穆罕默德的策略——即等待美国再次需要沙特阿拉伯——正在奏效这一现实的唯一承认。 |
| There is also an element of superpower maneuvering to the trip. | 此行还有一个元素，就是超级大国施展手腕。 |
| Biden made it clear when he came to office that he wanted to de-emphasize the U.S. focus on the Middle East, and focus on China — a reflection of his belief that Washington wasted 20 years when it should have been focusing on a true peer competitor. | 拜登在上任时就明确表示，他要减少美国对中东的关注，把精力转向中国。这反映出他的信念，即在他看来，华盛顿浪费了20年的时间，美国本该把精力集中在一个真正竞争对手身上。 |
| But the trip is also partly about stemming China’s inroads into the region. Last week, Riyadh and Washington quietly signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on building a next-generation 5G cellular network in Saudi Arabia. That is designed to box out Huawei, China’s 5G champion. | 在一定程度上，此行也是为了阻止中国在中东地区扩大影响。上周，沙特政府与美国政府悄悄地签署了一份谅解备忘录，两国将在沙特阿拉伯建设下一代的5G蜂窝移动网络方面合作。这是为了把中国的5G龙头企业华为排除在外。 |
| The politics of the war in Ukraine will also be in the background. | 俄乌战争涉及的政治问题也将是此行的背景之一。 |
| Biden’s aides made clear that they were annoyed in the spring when the Israeli government insisted on taking a largely neutral stance on the war, insisting that was the only way for its prime minister, Naftali Bennett, to keep an open line to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. | 拜登的助手们在今年春天已明确表示，他们对以色利很恼火，因为该国坚持在俄乌战争中采取基本中立的立场，坚称那是以色列总理贝内特保持与俄罗斯总统普京的交流渠道畅通的唯一途径。 |
| On Monday, as Biden was preparing to leave, his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, revealed for the first time that intelligence agencies had concluded that Iran — Israel’s primary adversary — was planning to aid Russia in its battle against Ukraine. He said Iran was preparing to deliver to Russia hundreds of drones, or UAVs, some capable of executing attacks. | 周一，就在拜登准备启程的时候，他的国家安全顾问沙利文首次透露了情报部门的结论，情报部门认为，以色列的主要对手——伊朗正打算在这场战争中帮助俄罗斯对抗乌克兰。沙利文说，伊朗准备向俄罗斯提供数百架无人机，其中一些有执行攻击的能力。 |
| Sullivan’s primary motive in revealing the Iranian operation was to warn Tehran and Moscow that the United States is watching. But with Biden’s visit expected to open with a demonstration of new Israeli capabilities to use laser weapons against drones and missiles, it appeared also intended to send a message to the Israeli government about more vigorously backing Ukraine. | 沙利文透露伊朗行动情报的主要动机是，警告德黑兰和莫斯科，美国在盯着他们。但拜登此行看来还有一个目的，就是向以色列政府传递更积极地支持乌克兰的信息，因为预计在行程开始的时候，将有以色列用激光武器对付无人机和导弹的新能力的展示。 |
| It also gives Biden and the caretaker prime minister who will serve as his host, Yair Lapid, a common point of agreement in how to confront Iran, amid continuing behind-the-scenes jostling over how to handle a crucial turn in Iran’s nuclear program. | 透露的情报也让拜登和将接待他的以色列看守总理拉皮德在如何对抗伊朗的问题上有一个共同的出发点。在如何应对伊朗核计划的一个关键转折点问题上，双方在幕后仍然存在分歧。 |
| Israel vociferously objected to the 2015 nuclear agreement, and the prime minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke to Congress about the need to block it. (Many of his intelligence and military chiefs disagreed, and later said they thought the agreement, which forced Iran to ship 97% of its fuel stockpiles out of the country, had bought them years.) | 以色列曾强烈反对2015年达成的伊朗核协议，时任总理的内塔尼亚胡在美国国会发表讲话时，提到阻止该协议的必要性。（他的许多情报官员和军方头目当时就不同意他的观点，他们后来表示，他们认为那份协议迫使伊朗将其97%的核燃料储备运出了伊朗，将该国的核计划推迟了多年。） |
| When former President Donald Trump pulled out of the accord in 2018, it touched off a new surge in the Iranian nuclear program. It has now produced a considerable amount of uranium at near-bomb-grade purity — something it never did before the 2015 accord — and Israel has stepped up its sabotage campaign, blowing up Iranian facilities. In response, Iran is speeding the development of new, underground facilities. | 上任总统特朗普2018年退出该协议后，伊朗核计划开始了新一轮的突飞猛进。伊朗现已生产出相当数量的接近核弹级纯度的铀，该国在2015年的核协议前从未做到过这点，以色列也已加强了破坏活动，炸毁了伊朗的设施。作为回应，伊朗正在加速发展新的地下设施。 |
| Officially, Israel opposes a renewal of the agreement — although it appears to be a moot issue. | 以色列在官方场合反对重启2015年的核协议，尽管这似乎已没有实际意义。 |
| The talks have been stalled for months, with Biden refusing a demand from Iran that its Revolutionary Guard be removed from Washington’s list of terrorist organizations. Robert Malley, the chief U.S. negotiator, whom the Iranians have refused to meet face to face, told NPR recently that “whether they are interested or not, they’re going to have to decide sooner or later, because at some point the deal will be a thing of the past.” | 有关核协议的谈判已经停滞数月时间，因为拜登拒绝了伊朗提出的将伊朗革命卫队从华盛顿的恐怖组织名单上删除的要求。伊朗人已拒绝与美国首席谈判代表罗伯特·马利进行面对面的会晤，马利最近在接受美国国家公共电台采访时说，“无论他们是否有兴趣，迟早都要做出决定，因为这个协议将在某个时刻成为过时的东西。” |
| It may already be beyond the point of resuscitating. | 伊核协议可能已经到了无可挽回的程度。 |
| In the early spring, Malley and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there were just weeks, maybe a month or so, to reach a deal before Iran’s advances, and the knowledge gained as it installed advanced centrifuges to produce uranium in high volume, would make the 2015 agreement outdated. | 马利和国务卿布林肯曾在今年早春时节表示，达成协议只需几周时间，也许最多一个月左右，那是在伊朗的核计划取得进展之前，随着伊朗安装更先进的离心机，从大批量生产铀的过程中学到更多的东西，2015年的协议已经过时。 |
| Now, four months later, Biden’s aides decline to explain how they let that deadline go by — and they still insist that reviving the deal is more valuable than abandoning it. | 现在，四个月过去了，拜登的助手拒绝解释他们为什么没在那个期限前达成协议，他们仍然坚持认为，恢复协议比放弃它更有价值。 |
| For public consumption, the White House has argued that Biden’s decision to go to Saudi Arabia was driven by a whole range of national security issues, not just oil. But oil is in fact the most urgent reason for the trip at a time of high gas prices. | 白宫向大众公布的理由是，拜登是出于一系列国家安全问题做出了访问沙特阿拉伯的决定，而不仅仅是在石油问题的驱动下。但事实上，在油价高企的时候，石油是此行最迫切的原因。 |
| Sensitive to the appearance of sacrificing a principled stand on human rights for cheaper energy, the president does not plan to announce any oil deal during his stop in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia. But the two sides have an understanding that Saudi Arabia will ramp up production once a current quota agreement expires in September, just in time for the fall midterm election campaign, according to current and former U.S. officials. | 拜登总统很敏感，不希望让人觉得他为了得到便宜的能源而在人权问题上牺牲原则立场，因此他不打算在访问沙特阿拉伯吉达期间宣布任何石油交易。但据现任和前任美国官员说，双方已达成共识，在目前的配额协议于今年9月到期后，沙特阿拉伯将提高石油产量，届时恰好是今秋中期选举的时间。 |
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