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丑闻、内阁倒戈与幕后压力:约翰逊如何走到辞职这一步
Boris Johnson’s Fight for Survival, Explained

来源:纽约时报    2022-07-07 08:50



        The latest update
        最新进展:鲍里斯·约翰逊宣布将辞任英国首相。他表示,在保守党选出新领导人之前,他将暂时继续留任,这可能需要几个月的时间。保守党的一个高级立法者委员会将从周一开始确定其离职时间表,并选择继任者。
        LONDON — One of his predecessors described him as a “greased piglet”: a man who could slip out of any tight situation.
        伦敦——他的一位前任称他为“抹了油的小猪”:一个可以摆脱任何紧张局面的人。
        And despite a damaging scandal involving parties during Britain’s coronavirus lockdown that brought him a fine and a stinging official report, Prime Minister Boris Johnson might have expected to be in a strong position.
        尽管首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在英国新冠病毒封锁期间开派对的破坏性丑闻使他遭到罚款以及一份尖刻的官方调查报告,人们本以为他会处于强势地位。
        Little more than two and a half years ago, Mr. Johnson led the Conservative Party to its biggest election victory in decades. Until the next general election — on a date set by the prime minister, and potentially as late as January 2025 — only his own party’s lawmakers can force him out.
        仅仅两年半前,约翰逊带领保守党取得了几十年来最大的选举胜利。直到下一次大选前,只有他自己政党的议员才能迫使他下台,而大选的日期由首相设定,可能最迟到2025年1月。
        Early in June, they declined to do so, backing him in a no-confidence vote. And yet his position has only grown weaker: Two top ministers resigned Tuesday night in response to yet another scandal, and a growing clutch of colleagues have followed suit, leading analysts to declare him at “the end of the road.”
        6月初,他们拒绝推翻约翰逊,在一次不信任投票中支持了他。然而他的地位开始动摇:周二晚上,两名级别最高的大臣因另一起丑闻辞职,越来越多的同事也纷纷效仿,以至于分析人士宣称他“走到了尽头”。
        Here’s a guide to how he got here, and to what could happen next.
        以下是他走到这一步的过程,以及接下来会发生什么。
        The trouble started with ‘partygate,’ but it hasn’t ended.
        麻烦始于“派对门”,但仍未结束。
        Since late last year, Mr. Johnson has been grappling with a series of reports about parties in Downing Street, where British prime ministers both live and work, while Covid lockdown rules were in force. The scandal became known as “partygate.”
        自去年年底以来,约翰逊一直在疲于应付一系列关于唐宁街派对的报道,作为英国首相的府邸和办公室,新冠防疫封锁规则对其仍然有效。丑闻被称为“派对门”。
        In May, a long-awaited internal inquiry by a senior civil servant, Sue Gray, found that 83 people violated the rules at parties, during which some drank heavily, fought with each other and damaged property. The London police said they had imposed 126 fines for breaches of social distancing. Mr. Johnson himself received only one, for a surprise lunchtime birthday celebration, despite being present at several gatherings for which others were fined.
        5月,由高级公务员苏·格雷领导的一场久候的内部调查发现,有83人在派对上违反新冠措施,其中一些人酗酒、打架和损坏财产。伦敦警方表示,他们已对违反社交距离的行为处以126项罚款。约翰逊本人仅为一场生日惊喜午餐庆祝收到一单罚款,然而他也多次出席其他派对,这些派对有出席者被罚款。
        But in a country that banned almost all social contact for months and kept lesser, but still onerous, restrictions far longer, the claims of rule-breaking have packed an extraordinary emotional punch. Members of Parliament responded to Mr. Johnson’s initial denials of wrongdoing, and then to his apologies, with testimony from people who were barred from visiting dying relatives at the time of the gatherings.
        然而在长达数月的时间内,这个国家曾几乎禁止所有社交接触,此后仍保持着虽然有所减缓、但仍相当严厉的限制,违反规定的指控引发了非同寻常的愤怒。议员们对约翰逊最初否认有不当行为作出回应,然后又对他的道歉作出回应,并提供了一些人的证词,这些人在派对进行的时间里被禁止探访弥留之际的亲属。
        A series of sexual misconduct scandals among Conservative lawmakers have further damaged Mr. Johnson. This week’s cabinet resignations followed the departure of Chris Pincher, a deputy chief whip — responsible for disciplining Conservative lawmakers — who was promoted by Mr. Johnson despite accusations of inappropriate behavior. Ministers and other officials denied on Mr. Johnson’s behalf that he had been aware of those accusations, only for that account to rapidly unravel.
        保守党议员之间的一系列性行为不端丑闻进一步损害了约翰逊。负责管束党员的保守党党鞭克里斯·平彻尽管被指控行为不当,却仍得到了约翰逊的提拔,本周一些内阁成员在平彻离开后相继辞职。大臣和其他官员替约翰逊否认了他对这些指控知情,但是这个说法很快就被揭穿了。
        Boris Johnson’s critics already tried to force him out and failed.
        鲍里斯·约翰逊的批评者已经尝试赶他下台但未能成功。
        In Britain, it is hard to get rid of a prime minister, but far from impossible. The job goes to the leader of the political party with a parliamentary majority. The party can oust its leader and choose another one, changing prime ministers without a general election.
        在英国,要首相下台很难,但绝非不可能。首相由议会多数党领袖担任。该党可以罢免这位领导人并选择另一位,无需大选即可更换首相。
        Under the Conservative Party’s rules, its members of Parliament can hold a binding vote of no confidence in Mr. Johnson if 15 percent of them — which currently means 54 lawmakers — write to formally request one. That moment came for Mr. Johnson on June 6, with a vote the same evening.
        根据保守党的规定,如果其中15%的议员——目前意味着54名议员——写信正式提出要求,则本党议员可以对约翰逊进行具有约束力的不信任投票。约翰逊的这个关键时刻发生在6月6日,当天晚上进行了投票。
        Mr. Johnson received 211 votes — just under 60 percent of his party’s 359 lawmakers — with 148 against him.
        保守党共有359名议员,约翰逊获得了211票支持——略低于60%,以及148票反对。
        That’s a weaker result than it sounds, because almost half of those lawmakers also have government jobs that normally oblige them to back Mr. Johnson. This vote was a secret ballot, however, so it’s impossible to know if all of them did.
        这个投票结果实际上比看上去的还要弱,因为其中几乎一半议员在政府内任有职务,一般来说有支持约翰逊的义务。然而,这次投票是无记名投票,所以无从知道这些议员是否都投了支持票。
        There’s also an asterisk on the other detail of the process that might sound reassuring for Mr. Johnson. Current Conservative rules say that he cannot face another party no-confidence vote for at least a year. But the party’s lawmakers set those rules. If a clear majority of them want him out, they can simply rewrite the rule book.
        该程序还有一个细节,可能会让约翰逊感到安心。根据目前保守党的规定,他至少在一年内不用再面对又一次的党内不信任投票。但这些规则是由该党的立法者制定的。如果他们中的绝大多数人希望他下台,他们只需要改写规则就行了。
        But cabinet resignations often indicate the beginning of the end.
        但内阁的辞职往往预示着结束的开始。
        Winning the no-confidence vote was essential, but it may not be enough. Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May were both out of office within a year of defeating a leadership challenge, by larger margins than Mr. Johnson.
        赢得不信任投票至关重要,但这可能还不够。撒切尔夫人和特雷莎·梅都在击败对其领导权的挑战后,不到一年就下了台,两人获得的优势都比约翰逊更大。
        One key factor is whether cabinet ministers rebel. The catalyst for Mrs. Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was the resignation of Geoffrey Howe, a disaffected former ally, and Mrs. May lost several ministers, including Mr. Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in 2018.
        一个关键因素是内阁大臣是否会倒戈。1990年撒切尔夫人下台的催化剂是心怀不满的前盟友杰弗里·豪的辞职,梅则是失去了几位大臣,包括2018年辞去外交大臣职务的约翰逊。
        On Tuesday evening, two of Mr. Johnson’s top ministers — Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, and Sajid Javid, the health secretary — resigned within minutes of one another.
        周二晚上,约翰逊的两位高级大臣——财政大臣里希·苏纳克和卫生大臣萨吉德·贾维德——在几分钟内相继辞职。
        Not every big resignation is fatal: John Major remained as prime minister for almost four years after his chancellor, Norman Lamont, quit with a stinging speech in 1993.
        并不是每一次重大辞职都是致命的:1993年,财政大臣诺曼·拉蒙特发表了言辞尖刻的演讲并辞职,随后约翰·梅杰依然担任了将近四年的首相。
        But in an ominous sign for Mr. Johnson, even as he moved quickly to fill the vacancies left by Mr. Sunak and Mr. Javid, a growing stream of more junior colleagues were following their lead.
        但对约翰逊来说,一个不祥的迹象是:即使他迅速采取行动填补苏纳克和贾维德留下的空缺,还有越来越多级别较低的同事追随他们的脚步。
        He could succumb to pressure from behind the scenes.
        他可能会屈服于来自幕后的压力。
        Once this was known as a visit from the “men in gray suits,” a phrase dating from an age when all key power brokers were men. In those days, when a group known as the “magic circle” chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too. And leaders can sometimes still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than be booted out.
        这种幕后压力曾经被称为“穿灰色西装的男人”到访,这个说法可以追溯到所有关键权力掮客都是男性的时代。在那些日子里,保守党党魁由一个被称为“魔法圈”的团体选出,这些大人物也可以撤回自己的支持。党魁有时会被说服,可以按照自己开出的条件离开,而不是被赶下台。
        Mrs. May resigned in 2019, after surviving a leadership vote, when it was clear that her position had become hopeless. Similar pressure, accompanied by ministerial resignations, was used to evict Tony Blair, the Labour Party prime minister, from Downing Street in 2007. On Wednesday, British news outlets reported that Michael Gove, a senior minister who is also seen as a key power broker in the Conservative Party, had told Mr. Johnson it was time to go.
        2019年,梅在挺过了领导权投票后辞职,当时她显然已经无望保住自己的地位。2007年,英国工党首相托尼·布莱尔受到类似的压力以及遭遇大臣们的辞职,被赶出了唐宁街。周三,英国新闻媒体报道称,高级大臣迈克尔·戈夫告诉约翰逊,是时候下台了。戈夫也被视为保守党的关键权力掮客。
        But there isn’t a clear successor.
        但目前还没有明确的继任者。
        One of the reasons Mr. Johnson’s fate has been unpredictable is that there is no consensus on who would replace him, and therefore no single cabal plotting to remove him.
        约翰逊的命运之所以难以预测,原因之一是对于谁将取代他的位置没有达成共识,因此没有形成一个想要密谋除掉他的小集团。
        Mr. Sunak, once considered the most likely successor, has himself suffered a fall from grace. He was fined for attending the same party as Mr. Johnson, and has also faced damaging reports around the tax status of his wealthy wife.
        苏纳克曾被视为最有可能的继任者,但他自己如今也已经名誉扫地。他因为和约翰逊参加同一个派对而被罚款,而他那位富有的妻子的税务问题也引来了负面报道。
        Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has remained in the government and is a leading contender. So, from outside the government, is Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who lost to Mr. Johnson in the last Conservative leadership contest. Several others may run.
        外交大臣利兹·特拉斯仍在担任政府职务,目前在人选之争中领先。政府之外的有力竞争者是前卫生大臣杰里米·亨特,他在上次保守党领袖竞选中败给了约翰逊。还有其他几个可能的参选者。
        They all need to be careful. In the past, ambitious rivals have suffered from being seen as disloyal (though not Mr. Johnson, who opposed Mrs. May and then succeeded her).
        他们都需要小心。在过去,有野心的对手会因为被视为不忠诚而受影响(不过约翰逊没有受影响,他和梅做对,但随后接替了她)。
        And it might take a while to chose one.
        而且,选出继任者可能需要一段时间。
        If Mr. Johnson does resign as Conservative Party leader, or loses a fresh no-confidence vote, that may not immediately end his time in Downing Street.
        如果约翰逊真的辞去保守党领袖的职务,或者在新一轮的不信任投票中落败,他在唐宁街的任期可能不会马上结束。
        His two most recent predecessors both resigned as party leader, and then stayed on as prime minister until the party had chosen a replacement. But Mr. Johnson could also step aside for an interim figure, such as the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, who took on the prime minister’s duties when Mr. Johnson was hospitalized with Covid in 2020.
        他最近的两位前任都辞去了该党领导人的职务,然后继续担任首相,直到该党选出接替者。但约翰逊也可以让位给一个临时人物,比如副相多米尼克·拉布,他在约翰逊2020年因新冠住院时承担了首相的职责。
        The Conservative Party doesn’t have published leadership election rules — the details and schedule are announced each time by the chairman of the same committee of lawmakers that decides about no-confidence votes.
        保守党没有公布党魁选举规则——每一次,选举的细节和时间表都是由决定不信任投票的同一个议员委员会主席宣布的。
        The broad outlines, however, are set out in a briefing from the British Parliament’s library: Conservative lawmakers hold a series of ballots among themselves to whittle the number of contenders down to two. (In 2019, when Mr. Johnson won, the process began with 10 candidates, and took six ballots.)
        不过,英国议会图书馆的一份简报列出了大致的轮廓:保守党议员在内部举行一系列投票,将竞争者的人数减少到两人。(2019年约翰逊获胜时,名单中一开始有10名候选人,一共进行了六次投票。)
        The choice between that final two is made by a ballot of the party’s entire dues-paying membership. As of last year, according to a speech by a party official, there were about 200,000 Conservative Party members; they pay a standard annual subscription of 25 pounds, about $30.
        在最后两名候选人之间选谁,将由该党全体缴费成员投票决定。据一名保守党官员的演讲,截至去年,保守党成员约有20万人;他们每年支付25英镑(约合200元人民币)的标准会费。
        The last two candidates in 2019, Mr. Johnson and Mr. Hunt, were given six weeks to make their cases. The result of the membership vote was announced some 46 days after Mrs. May had resigned as party leader, and Mr. Johnson visited Queen Elizabeth to be appointed prime minister the next day.
        2019年,最后两位候选人约翰逊和亨特有六周的时间来为自己拉票。党员投票结果是在梅辞任党魁46天后宣布的,约翰逊在第二天觐见伊丽莎白女王,被任命为首相。
        
        
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