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经济崩溃、政治王朝倾覆,斯里兰卡将何去何从?
Embattled Leaders in Hiding, Sri Lankans Ask: What’s Next?

来源:纽约时报    2022-07-11 12:50



        COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — Sri Lanka’s political and economic crisis offered a peculiar tableau Sunday after a day of high drama: The protesters were everywhere, cooking in the prime minister’s garden and even lounging in the president’s bedroom while the leaders were nowhere to be seen.        斯里兰卡科伦坡——在经历了戏剧性的一天后,周日,斯里兰卡的政治和经济危机出现了奇特的一幕:到处都有抗议者的身影,他们在总理的花园里做饭,甚至在总统的卧室里闲逛,而国家的领导人却不见踪影。
        With President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe both in hiding after indicating they would resign, it was not clear who was running the country. But it mattered little to the thousands who have flooded into the capital city, Colombo, since Saturday: For months they had felt they were on their own anyway as they queued up for hours — often in vain — for fuel and cooking gas, pared down their meals and scrambled for lifesaving medicine.        目前还不清楚谁在掌管这个国家,总统戈塔巴雅·拉贾帕克萨和总理拉尼尔·维克勒马辛哈在表示将辞职后都躲藏起来。但对于周六以来涌入首都科伦坡的数千民众来说,这并不重要:反正几个月来,他们一直觉得自己没人管,为了得到燃料和煤气排几小时的队,却常常一无所获,他们缩衣节食,争夺救命的药物。
        Opposition leaders clamored to decipher Mr. Rajapaksa’s intentions.        反对派领导人则喧嚷着对拉贾帕克萨的意图进行各种解读。
        Would he actually quit on Wednesday, as officials have said, or was his silence a sign that he was gauging his options for a protracted fight? Discussions on who might succeed him were also taking shape, with the speaker of the Parliament viewed as the likely choice as interim president.        他真的会像官员们所说的那样在周三辞职,还是他的沉默表明他正在权衡各种选择,以应对一场旷日持久的斗争?人们还在讨论可能的接替人选,议会议长被视为临时总统的可能人选。
        But it is clear that whoever takes the reins of government will be walking into a crisis, analysts said, inheriting a crashed economy with no easy solutions and a public that is exhausted and furious.        但分析人士表示,很明显,无论谁掌权,都将接过危机,继承没有简单解决方案的崩溃经济,以及面对筋疲力尽、充满愤怒的公众。
        On Sunday, however, the protesters were busy savoring the apparent victory of being on the brink of bringing down a powerful political dynasty that has ruled the country for much of the past two decades.        在过去二十年里的大部分时间里,斯里兰卡一直由一个强大的政治王朝所统治。不过,周日的抗议者沉浸在即将推翻该王朝的胜利喜悦中。
        The British colonial-era building serving as President Rajapaksa’s official residence has effectively become a free museum. The stream of visitors was so large, with people tightly packed into the halls and stairways, that activists had to put out calls encouraging people to visit the other top compounds they had overrun: the president’s offices and the prime minister’s residence.        拉贾帕克萨总统官邸是一处英国殖民时代的建筑,它实际上已成为免费的博物馆。参观者络绎不绝,大厅和阶梯上挤满了人,活动人士不得不发出呼吁,鼓励民众参观他们占领的其他高级院落:总统办公室和总理官邸。
        “Open to the public,” they painted on the walls of the prime minister’s residence in large, bright letters.        他们在总理官邸的墙上写下醒目的大字:“向公众开放”。
        Sri Lanka’s downward spiral has played out against a backdrop of global instability. In the wake of the Russia invasion of Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Moscow that followed, inflation, high energy prices and food shortages have afflicted much of the world. Even before that, the pandemic had disrupted the supply chain.        斯里兰卡的形势急转直下是在全球不稳定的背景下发生的。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和莫斯科紧接着遭到经济制裁之后,通货膨胀、能源价格上升和粮食短缺困扰着世界大部分地区。甚至在此之前,新冠疫情就已经扰乱了供应链。
        Sri Lanka was once held up as a potential economic success story that other developing nations could look to, and regional powers have jockeyed for influence over the island nation of 22 million. But its economy has been foundering for months, weighed down by heavy government debt tied to enormous infrastructure projects of questionable utility. The pandemic also wiped out the country’s crucial tourism revenue.        斯里兰卡曾被视为可供其他发展中国家参考的潜在经济成功案例,地区大国竞相对这个拥有2200万人口的岛国施加影响。但数月来,其经济一直处于低迷状态,沉重的政府债务将它拖累,这些债务与用途存疑的大型基础设施项目相关。疫情还导致该国失去了至关重要的旅游收入。
        Now, Sri Lanka has become more of a cautionary tale.        现在,斯里兰卡更像是一则警世喻言。
        On Sunday, as Army guards quietly patrolled the halls of the presidential mansion, some visitors admired the fine art work, the chandeliers, and the elaborately painted ceilings. Others sprawled across the president’s canopied bed, or peeked into the teak armoires or the cabinets in a kitchen where a man cooked rice in a large wok. The damage, if any, seemed minimal, aside from some graffiti urging the president to resign, some plastic bottle debris, several curtains pulled down and a few paintings slightly askew.        周日,军队警卫在总统府的大厅里安静地巡逻,一些参观者欣赏着精美的艺术品、吊灯和精巧绘制的天花板。还有人趴在总统的华盖床上,或窥探柚木衣橱或厨房的橱柜。厨房里,一名男子正在用一口大锅煮米饭。除了一些敦促总统辞职的涂鸦、几个塑料瓶垃圾、几幅扯下的窗帘,以及墙上的几幅变得略微歪斜的画之外,几乎没有什么损失。
        The protesters helped pick up trash from the mansion, sweep the floors, water the plants, and even returned about 17 million rupees, nearly $50,000, they had found at the mansion to the police — after counting the notes.        抗议者帮忙在总统府捡垃圾、扫地、给绿植浇水,甚至清点了在那里发现的约1700万卢比(近5万美元),并将其归还警方。
        Deepa Ranawara, her husband and their two children were among those enjoying the festive atmosphere. Not typically activists, the family of four walked 15 miles to and from their home to the mansion on both Saturday and Sunday, leaving Ms. Ranawara struggling to stand because her legs were in such pain.        迪帕·拉纳瓦拉、她的丈夫和两个孩子是享受这种节日气氛的民众之一。他们一家四口并非典型的活动分子,他们在周六和周日都往返步行了15英里(约24公里)来到这里,这让拉纳瓦拉双腿疼到站不起来。
        “People have suffered too much,” she said. “Never in my wildest dreams did I think this could happen in Sri Lanka.”        “人们遭受了太多苦难,”她说。“我做梦也没想到这会发生在斯里兰卡。”
        Ms. Ranawara and her husband took out a bank loan two years ago to open a corner store selling the basics — milk, sugar, rice, eggs — to supplement his income painting cars and pay for their daughter’s tutoring as she prepared for all-important final exams. Now, months into Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis, the couple is struggling to repay the loan and restock the shelves.        两年前,拉纳瓦拉和丈夫从银行贷款,开了一家街角小店,卖一些基本的食物,比如牛奶、糖、大米和鸡蛋。这部分收入是她丈夫给汽车喷漆工作的补充,还可以用来支付女儿的补习费用——她正在为最重要的期末考试做准备。现在,斯里兰卡最严重的经济危机已持续数月,这对夫妇偿还贷款和补货都遇到了困难。
        “We eat maybe two times a day now,” Ms. Ranawara said. “We don’t even think about fish or meat.”        “我们现在可能一天只吃两顿饭,”拉纳瓦拉说。“鱼或肉想都不要想。”
        For more than two years, Mohammad Imran’s two children have been unable to attend school regularly in Colombo. First it was the pandemic. Now, it’s the economic crisis. Fuel has become scarce and the cost of everything from food to transportation has skyrocketed.        两年多来,穆罕默德·伊姆兰的两个孩子在科伦坡一直无法正常上学。先是疫情,现在又是经济危机。燃料变得稀缺,从食物到交通,各种成本都在飙升。
        Mr. Imran cut expenses like taking his family out to dinner once a week, but wanted to celebrate Eid al-Adha, one of the most important Muslim holidays, with his children on Sunday. He borrowed some gasoline to fuel up his motorcycle and drove Barerah, 11, and Thameem, 5, to the presidential residence.        伊姆兰开始削减开支,比如每周只带家人出去吃一次饭,但周日,他想和孩子们一起庆祝穆斯林最重要的节日之一:古尔邦节。他借来一些汽油给摩托车加上油,然后载着11岁的贝雷拉和五岁的萨米姆前往总统府。
        As he took in the majestic grounds, he said, “To see the kind of lifestyle he had, I feel it’s good for their education.”        看着雄伟的官邸的时候,他说,“看看他那种生活方式,我觉得这对孩子们是很好的教育。”
        The protesters blame President Rajapaksa, and the wider Rajapaksa family who held key positions in his government, for their misery.        抗议者将他们的痛苦归咎于拉贾帕克萨以及在他的政府中担任关键职位的拉贾帕克萨家族成员。
        In the face of growing unrest over the past year, the Rajapaksas initially denied that the economy was collapsing. As protesters took to the streets in the spring, the president tried to offer incremental compromises, asking his family members to leave their government positions and shuffling his cabinet. Even after the protesters forced his brother, the prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, to quit in May, the president continued to defy their calls for his resignation.        面对过去一年不断加剧的动荡,拉贾帕克萨家族最初否认经济正在崩溃。今年春天,抗议者走上街头后,总统试图一步步做出妥协,要求家庭成员从政府职位辞职,并改组内阁。即使在抗议者迫使他的哥哥、总理马欣达·拉贾帕克萨于5月辞职后,总统仍然无视抗议者要求他辞职的呼声。
        Late on Saturday, Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, the speaker of the Sri Lankan Parliament, a Rajapaksa ally, said the president had told him he would resign on Wednesday. But neither Mr. Rajapaksa nor other officials around him have said so directly.        周六晚些时候,拉贾帕克萨的盟友、斯里兰卡议会议长马欣达·亚帕·阿贝瓦德纳表示,总统告诉他,他将于周三辞职。但拉贾帕克萨和他身边的其他官员都没有直接这样说过。
        Security officials and political leaders close to the president have remained tight-lipped about his whereabouts, claiming ignorance or not answering calls. But Colombo was abuzz with rumors that president had shifted to a military base on the outskirts of the capital. Those rumors followed speculation on Saturday, prompted by videos of luggage being rushed to a naval ship and government vehicles speeding toward the airport, that the president had left the city.        安全官员以及与总统关系密切的政治领导人一直对他的下落守口如瓶,要么声称不知情,要么不接电话。但是周六,科伦坡盛传总统已转移到首都郊区的一个军事基地。此前有视频显示,一批行李被紧急送上一艘军舰,政府车辆飞速驶向机场,人们猜测总统已经离开这座城市。
        In the line of succession set out by Sri Lanka’s Constitution, Mr. Wickremesinghe, the prime minister, would ordinarily become the acting president. Many people believed he was gearing up for just that possibility, but on Saturday, Mr. Wickremesinghe announced his intention to resign as well. The fury against him is such that his private residence was set ablaze.        按照斯里兰卡宪法规定的继任顺序,通常,应该成为代理总统的是总理维克勒马辛哈。许多人认为,他正在为这种可能性做准备,但周六,维克拉马辛哈宣布了辞职的打算。人们对他的怒火如此之大,他的私人住宅遭人放火。
        That leaves Mr. Abeywardena, the 76-year-old speaker of Parliament, as the likely interim leader.        这样一来,76岁的议会议长阿贝瓦德纳有可能成为临时领导人。
        “The constitutional position is that if the president resigns and there is no prime minister, the speaker of the Parliament can act as president for a period of one month,” said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a professor of political science at the University of Colombo.        “宪法规定,如果总统辞职,而且没有总理,那议会议长可以担任一个月的总统职务,”科伦坡大学政治学教授贾亚德瓦·乌扬戈达说。
        The acting president will have a month to organize the election of a president from among members of Parliament. The winner will complete the two years left in Mr. Rajapaksa’s term before elections are due, analysts said.        代总统将有一个月的时间做出安排,从议会成员中选举总统。分析人士说,获胜者将在大选之前完成拉贾帕克萨剩余的两年任期。
        Mr. Uyangoda said both the new president and the new prime minister, who will also come from Parliament, would be walking into a “crisis trap.”        乌扬戈达说,新总统和同样将来自议会的新总理都会陷入“危机陷阱”。
        While the protests have focused on the long-dominant Rajapaksa family’s abuses, the demonstrators are just as frustrated with the broader political class’s infighting. Organizers want the executive’s powers curbed, and they want more accountability and checks and balances in government.        虽然抗议活动的焦点是长期占据统治地位的拉贾帕克萨家族的滥权行为,但示威者对更广泛的政治阶层的内斗同样感到失望。组织者希望行政部门的权力得到约束,希望政府有更多的问责和制衡机制。
        Mr. Uyangoda said the new leaders would struggle to fulfill any promises because of the daunting economic crisis.        乌扬戈达说,由于严峻的经济危机,新领导人将很难兑现任何承诺。
        “The entire political class has also lost public trust,” he said. There is a “contradiction between the political class and the politically awakened citizens. Unless this contradiction is resolved constructively, we will continue to see instability.”        “整个政治阶层也失去了公众的信任,”他说。目前,“政治阶层和政治觉醒的公民之间存在着矛盾。除非这一矛盾得到建设性解决,否则我们将继续面临动荡。”
                
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