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| The assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan may look like a rebuke of the country’s famously stringent gun laws. |
| 日本前首相安倍晋三遇刺，看上去是对该国以严格著称的枪支法的一次驳斥。 |
| But there is another view: that the shooting is a reminder of, and maybe even underscores, those restrictions’ success. |
| 但还有另一种观点：该枪击事件提醒甚至突显了这些限制措施有多么成功。 |
| Experts who research gun laws stress that even the most stringent measures cannot totally erase the human capacity for violence. Rather, restrictions, if successful, can reduce both the severity of that violence as well as impose hurdles that make it less frequent. |
| 研究枪支法的专家强调，即使是最严格的措施也不能完全消除人类的暴力能力。然而如果限制措施成功的话，既可以降低暴力的严重性，又可以设置障碍，降低暴力的发生频率。 |
| The details of the shooting in Japan seem to demonstrate precisely how. |
| 日本枪击事件的细节似乎恰恰证明了这一点。 |
| The shooter apparently used a crude handmade weapon made with electrical tape and metal tubes. Such weapons, known as zip guns or pipe guns, can be assembled with materials from most hardware stores, making them functionally impossible to track or prevent. |
| 枪手显然使用了一种由电工胶带和金属管制成的简陋自制武器。这种武器被称为自制小枪或钢管土枪，可以用能在大多数五金店买到的材料来组装，这使其很难被跟踪或预防。 |
| If the shooter’s ability to build and use such a device shows that gun restrictions cannot completely eliminate violence from a society, then it also demonstrates that such measures tend to make that violence rarer and less deadly. |
| 如果枪手有能力制造和使用这种设备，表明了枪支限制不能完全消除一个社会的暴力，那么它也同样表明，这类措施往往会使暴力变得更加罕见，且没那么致命。 |
| Contrast this attack with the recent mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, where the gunman’s high-capacity, rapid-firing AR-15-style rifle enabled him to kill 19 children and two teachers. Another attacker used a similar rifle to quickly kill 10 at a Buffalo grocery store. Last week, another still murdered seven at a parade in Highland Park, Ill. |
| 可以将这次袭击与最近发生在得克萨斯州尤瓦尔迪的大规模枪击事件进行对比。在尤瓦尔迪事件中，枪手使用了高弹容、快速发射的AR-15式步枪，杀死了19名儿童和两名教师。另一名袭击者使用类似的步枪在布法罗一家杂货店迅速杀死10人。上周，另一人在伊利诺伊州高地公园的游行中杀害了七人。 |
| All those shooters had acquired their guns legally. These were just some of the 300-plus mass shootings in the United States this year alone, according to one count. |
| 所有这些枪手都是合法获得枪支的。据统计，这只是美国今年发生的300多起大规模枪击事件中的一部分。 |
| But in Japan such weapons are impossible to purchase legally, and not much easier to acquire illegally. Even simpler weapons like handguns are effectively banned. |
| 但在日本，这种武器是不可能合法购买的，非法获得也不容易。甚至像手枪这样简单的武器实质上也被禁止。 |
| The few legally acquirable weapons, mostly hunting rifles, can only be purchased after a screening and a training process so onerous that Japan has one of the world’s lowest firearm ownership rates: one gun per every 330 residents. |
| 少数可以合法获得的武器主要是猎枪，必须经过筛选和繁琐的培训程序才能购买，因此日本是世界上枪支拥有率最低的国家之一：平均每330名居民才拥有一支枪。 |
| This figure includes an estimate of illegally owned weapons in Japan, which are thought to be rare in part because restrictions have all but erased private firearms from the country, leaving criminals with fewer black market weapons to purchase. Even the country’s notorious organized crime syndicates largely forgo guns. |
| 该数字还包括了日本非法持有武器的数量，这种情况被认为非常罕见，部分原因是限制措施几乎将私人枪支从该国清除，使得犯罪分子可以从黑市购买的武器减少了。就连该国臭名昭著的有组织犯罪集团也基本上放弃了枪支。 |
| American ownership, by contrast, is 1.2 guns for every resident, or 400 times Japan’s rate. |
| 相比之下，美国人均拥有1.2支枪械，是日本的400倍。 |
| As a result, a would-be gunman in Japan is all but forced to resort to unusual and difficult methods such as constructing a homemade weapon like the one apparently used to kill Mr. Abe. |
| 因此，在日本，潜在的枪手只得采取不同寻常的困难方法，比如自制一种武器，就像杀死安倍晋三的那种武器一样。 |
| Building such a weapon requires time and expertise. Smoke at the scene of the shooting suggests that the ammunition, which is also tightly controlled in Japan, may have been homemade as well. Tinkering with what is effectively a homemade explosive shoved into a metal pipe would bring personal risk to its maker as well. |
| 制造这样的武器需要时间和专业知识。枪击现场的烟雾表明，弹药可能也是自制的。在日本，弹药同样受到严格控制。在金属管中塞入自制炸药也会给制造者本人带来风险。 |
| These are substantial obstacles compared with the ease of walking into a gun store and purchasing a weapon that will reliably fire off many rounds and not detonate in the shooter’s hand. This may be one of the reasons that shootings are exceedingly rare in Japan. The country experiences fewer than 10 gun deaths nationwide in most years, compared to tens of thousands in the United States. Since 2017, Japan has recorded 14 gun-related deaths, in a country of 125 million people. |
| 比起轻松走进枪械商店，购买一件能够发射许多发子弹且不会在射击者手里爆炸的武器相比，这些都是相当大的障碍。这可能是枪击事件在日本极为罕见的原因之一。在大多数年份，日本全国范围内涉枪死亡人数不到10人，而美国的涉枪死亡人数为数万人。自2017年以来，拥有1.25亿人口的日本只录得14起与枪支相关的死亡。 |
| And an improvised gun is far less effective than a commercially manufactured weapon, in some ways more akin to a homemade bomb, or an 18th-century musket (but without the range), than to a modern gun. It can often fire only one shot, perhaps two, before requiring a cumbersome reloading process. And its accurate range may be as little as a few feet. |
| 而且，自制枪支远不如商业制造的武器有效，在某些方面，自制枪支不像现代枪支，更像是自制炸弹或18世纪的火枪（但射程不如火枪）。这类枪通常只能开一两枪，然后需要一个重新装填子弹的繁琐过程。其精确射程可能只有几米远。 |
| As a result, an American-style shooter can, virtually on a whim, readily arm themselves with the firepower to kill large numbers of people before police can respond, targeting victims even hundreds of yards away. |
| 因此，一名美式枪手几乎可以随心所欲地用火力武装自己，在警察做出反应之前杀死大量的人，目标甚至可以是几百米外的受害者。 |
| But a Japanese shooter may require long stretches of dangerous preparation to build their weapon. They then must secret it to within feet of their victim and squeeze off what may be their only shot before they become effectively defenseless, and a bystander overpowers them. |
| 但是日本枪手要制造武器，可能需要进行长期而危险的准备工作，然后必须将武器秘密运到离受害者不远的地方，并且在自己失去防御能力、被旁人制服之前，发射可能是唯一的一枪。 |
| This appears to be just what happened in Nara, the Japanese city where Mr. Abe was killed. |
| 在安倍晋三遇害的奈良市，发生的情况似乎正是这样。 |
| Skeptics of gun restrictions often argue that other factors must explain Japan’s low rate of gun violence or its frequency in the United States. |
| 对枪支限制持怀疑态度的人常常认为，一定还有其他因素，可以解释日本枪支暴力发生率低或美国枪支暴力发生率高。 |
| But for all the cultural and political peculiarities of these two societies, both fit neatly within a consistent global trend, one that has been repeatedly established in independent research. Countries with tighter gun laws have fewer guns in circulation, legal or illegal. And the fewer guns in a country, the fewer gun murders, mass shootings or political killings it experiences. |
| 但是，尽管这两个社会在文化和政治上有种种独特之处，它们都完全符合一种全球一致的趋势，该趋势在独立研究中一再得到证实。在枪支法律更严格的国家里，无论合法还是非法流通的枪支都更少。一个国家的枪支越少，它的枪支谋杀、大规模枪击事件或政治谋杀就越少。 |
| Underscoring this link, the handful of countries that have significantly tightened once-liberal gun laws, like Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway, have seen their rates of gun violence and mass shootings drop substantially. |
| 英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰和挪威等少数国家大幅收紧了曾经自由的枪支法律，这些国家的枪支暴力和大规模枪击事件的发生率都出现了大幅下降，该现象凸显了这种联系。 |
| Activists argue that tightening gun laws not only saves lives but also allows a society as a whole to live in greater comfort and security, even if the risk of violence can never be eliminated entirely. |
| 活动人士认为，收紧枪支法律不仅可以挽救生命，而且可以让整个社会生活更舒适、更安全，即使暴力的风险永远不可能完全消除。 |
| The circumstances surrounding Mr. Abe’s killing seem to highlight the difference between operating in a society with frequent gun violence and one with virtually none. |
| 安倍遇害的案情似乎凸显了枪支暴力频繁发生与枪支暴力几乎为零的两种社会之间的区别。 |
| Mr. Abe traveled with little security. As is common in Japanese campaign stops, he mingled freely with voters, keeping almost no distance between himself and the crowd. |
| 安倍行程中的安保人员极少。这在日本竞选站点中很常见，他与选民自由交谈，和人群几乎没有距离。 |
| The ease with which a lone gunman could carry a tape-covered device up to Mr. Abe, once one of the world’s most powerful leaders, may lead some in Japan to rethink that openness. |
| 安倍曾是世界上最有权势的领导人之一，而一个单独行动的枪手可以轻而易举地将用胶带固定的武器带到他面前，这可能会导致日本一些人重新思考这种开放性。 |
| Japan experienced significant political violence during fascism’s rise there in the early years of the 20th century, showing that it is hardly immune. But since World War II’s end, it has seen only a dozen or so political attacks. Most involved knives. Few were fatal. |
| 在20世纪初法西斯主义在日本崛起期间，该国经历了严重的政治暴力，说明它也并不是不受这种暴力的影响。但自二战结束以来，只发生过十几起政治袭击。大多涉及持刀袭击。很少有致命案件。 |
| From today’s vantage point, that long record of relative safety might appear shattered. But, even if Mr. Abe’s stature may cause the impact of this killing to linger in Japanese society, perceptions of Japan as safe have recovered from past attacks. This includes the fatal stabbing of a lawmaker in 2002, by far-right extremists, or the gun murder of a mayor in 2007 by a criminal group. It also includes instances of mass violence, like a 2016 knife attack that killed 19 people and a 1995 sarin gas attack by an extremist cult that killed 13. |
| 从今天的角度来看，长期以来相对安全的纪录可能会被打破。即使安倍的声望可能会导致这次遇害事件的影响在日本社会中长期留存，但以往发生的袭击事件并没有破坏日本很安全这种认知。这些事件包括2002年一名立法者遭到极右翼极端分子刺死、2007年一名市长遭到犯罪集团枪杀。它还包括大规模暴力事件，例如2016年造成19人死亡的持刀袭击和1995年由极端主义邪教组织发动、造成13人死亡的沙林毒气袭击。 |
| For those outside of Japan, the assassination may seem incongruous with claims that Japan has found special success against gun violence. If its gun measures worked, why was a former leader just gunned down in broad daylight? |
| 日本宣称在打击枪支暴力方面卓有成效，但对于日本以外的人来说，这场暗杀似乎表明并不是那么回事。如果枪支措施奏效，为什么一个前领导人在光天化日之下被枪杀？ |
| In the early 2010s, as Americans engaged in a bitter gun control debate in the wake of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary, the world provided a similar moment of seeming contradiction. |
| 2010年代初桑迪胡克小学大规模枪击事件后，美国人展开了激烈的枪支管制辩论，而当时的世界也存在类似的看似矛盾的时刻。 |
| China, which also has strict gun laws, experienced a spate of seemingly random knife attacks on schoolchildren. The attacks, which have continued, claim about a dozen lives every year. Wasn’t this proof, some Americans asked, that gun restrictions, having failed to stop the attacks in China, were ineffective against such violence? |
| 同样拥有严格枪支法律的中国也经历了一系列对学童无差别持刀袭击的事件。这些持续发生的袭击每年夺去大约十几人的生命。一些美国人问道，枪支限制未能阻止中国的袭击事件，这难道不是它无效的证明吗？ |
| But zoom out, and the contrast between China and the United States becomes instructive. China’s gun restrictions hardly prevented individuals from turning to indiscriminate violence. But compared with American mass shootings, Chinese knife attacks appear to be, on average, about one-tenth as deadly. |
| 但是退一步看，中美之间的对比就变得具有指导意义。中国的枪支限制几乎没有阻止个体转向无差别暴力行为。但是，中国持刀袭击的平均伤亡约为美国大规模枪击事件的十分之一。 |
| And that is when they occur at all: International media record perhaps two or three such incidents per year in China, compared to hundreds of mass shootings in the United States. In this sense, the relative death toll is near 1,000 to one. |
| 而且中国持刀袭击事件并不多发：国际媒体每年记录的此类事件可能有两到三起，而美国则有数百起大规模枪击事件。从这个意义上说，死亡人数对比接近1000比1。 |
| Mr. Abe’s killing may provide an even starker contrast: It was shocking — and, indeed, only possible for the shooter to carry out — precisely because even the fear of gun violence is so rare. |
| 安倍被杀可能会提供一个更加鲜明的对比：该事件令人震惊——而且只可能由这样的枪手实施——其原因正是在于人们甚至极少有对枪支暴力的恐惧。 |
| It is an exception that may rock Japan for years to come, but it is also one that serves as a reminder of the thousands of gun murders that, compared to American rates, never take place there at all. |
| 这是一个可能会在未来几年撼动日本的例外事件，但它也提醒人们，像美国那样的几千起枪支谋杀案永远不会发生在日本。 |
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