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| He made no claim of victory or “mission accomplished” and no promise that the fight in Ukraine could end soon. But as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia spoke in Moscow’s Red Square on Monday, he also made no call for new sacrifice or mobilization, no threat of a nuclear strike, no stark pronouncement about an existential war with the West. |
| 他没有宣称胜利或“任务完成”，没有承诺乌克兰的战斗会很快结束。但俄罗斯总统普京周一在莫斯科红场发表讲话时，也没有呼吁做出新的牺牲或动员，没有威胁进行核打击，没有严正宣布要与西方打一场生死攸关的战争。 |
| Instead Mr. Putin, speaking on Russia’s most important secular holiday, delivered a message for the broader Russian public: that they could keep on living their lives. The military would keep fighting to rid Ukraine, in his false telling, of “torturers, death squads and Nazis,” but Mr. Putin did not make any new attempt to prepare his people for a wider conflict. |
| 相反，普京在俄罗斯最重要的非宗教节日发表讲话，向俄罗斯广大民众传达了这样一个信息：他们可以继续自己的生活。他做出了军方会继续战斗，以清除乌克兰的“施虐者、行刑队和纳粹”这样的虚假陈述，但普京没有再一次试图让他的人民为更广泛的冲突做好准备。 |
| The calibrated tone showed that while some Western officials had predicted Mr. Putin would use the May 9 holiday to double down on the war, he remains cautious about demanding too much from regular Russians. The only policy announcement Mr. Putin made in his speech, in fact, was aimed at assuaging the pain directly caused by the war — a decree to provide additional aid to the children of killed and wounded soldiers. |
| 这种经过精心调整的语气表明，尽管一些西方官员预测普京会利用5月9日的节日加大对这场战争的投入，但他仍保持谨慎态度，没有向普通俄罗斯人要求太多。事实上，普京在讲话中宣布的唯一一项政策是为了减轻战争直接造成的痛苦——一项为阵亡和受伤士兵的子女提供额外援助的法令。 |
| “He has developed a certain sense of what is and is not possible,” said Gleb O. Pavlovsky, a close adviser to Mr. Putin until falling out with him in 2011, explaining why the Russian leader does not appear ready to order a mass mobilization. “He understands that no propaganda can by itself force someone to die.” |
| “他对什么可能、什么不可能已经形成了某种概念，”曾为普京亲信、直到2011年与其闹翻的格列布·帕夫洛夫斯基在解释俄罗斯领导人为何似乎不准备进行大规模动员时说。“他明白，任何宣传本身都无法迫使一个人去死。” |
| Mr. Putin’s speech was subdued especially when compared to the fiery rhetoric he has espoused on other occasions in the last two months; it was also the speech, of all his recent appearances, that the Russian people were most likely to see, since it came during the televised Victory Day parade, the Russian state’s marquee annual event celebrating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. |
| 与过去两个月在其他场合发表的激烈言辞相比，普京这一次的讲话显得低调。这也是他最近所有公开讲话中，俄罗斯人民最有可能看到的一次，因为这是在电视转播的胜利日阅兵式上发表的。胜利日是俄罗斯一年一度的盛大活动，庆祝苏联在二战中战胜纳粹德国。 |
| Some analysts say that while polls show broad support in Russia for the war, there appears to be concern in the Kremlin that this support is not deep. Mr. Pavlovsky said the president seemed keen to avoid doing further damage to the unspoken deal with the Russian people that he fashioned after coming to power: Regular Russians stay out of politics, and the Kremlin largely lets them live their lives. |
| 一些分析人士表示，尽管民调显示俄罗斯民众普遍支持战争，但克里姆林宫似乎担心这种支持并不深入。帕夫洛夫斯基说，总统似乎希望避免进一步破坏他上台后与俄罗斯人民达成的默契：普通俄罗斯人不参与政治，克里姆林宫在很大程度上让他们过自己的生活。 |
| While more than 15,000 Russians were arrested at antiwar protests in the first weeks of the war, the vast majority stayed silent, even if they opposed it. And while Western sanctions have hit Russia’s economy, it has not collapsed, allowing many people to live largely as they had before the Feb. 24 invasion. |
| 在战争的头几周，有超过15000名俄罗斯人在反战抗议活动中被捕，但绝大多数俄罗斯人保持沉默，即使他们反对战争。虽然西方的制裁打击了俄罗斯的经济，但经济并没有崩溃，许多人的生活基本上与2月24日入侵前一样。 |
| The independent pollster Levada found last month that 39 percent of Russians were paying little to no attention to what the Kremlin calls the “special military operation” in Ukraine. |
| 独立民调机构列瓦达上月发现，39%的俄罗斯人对克里姆林宫在乌克兰所谓的“特别军事行动”几乎不关注。 |
| In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected Mr. Putin’s claim of purging Nazism to justify the invasion, saying in a video released on Monday that it was the Russian leader who was “repeating the horrific crimes of Hitler’s regime today.” |
| 在乌克兰，总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基否认了普京的说法：入侵是为了清除纳粹主义，因而是正当行为。他在周一发布的视频中说，如今，正是这位俄罗斯领导人在“重复希特勒政权的可怕罪行”。 |
| “On the day of victory over Nazism, we are fighting for a new victory,” Mr. Zelensky said as he was shown walking alone through the streets of Kyiv, past government buildings protected with barriers and barbed wire. |
| “在战胜纳粹的这一天，我们正在为新的胜利而战，”泽连斯基说。视频画面中，他独自走在基辅的街道上，经过被障碍物和铁丝网保护着的政府大楼。 |
| Together, the speeches showed both leaders digging in for what could be a protracted battle, as Ukrainian troops, armed with heavy weapons supplied by the West, fight Russian forces along a 300-mile front in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. After weeks of intense combat, Russia has made only sporadic gains. |
| 这些讲话表明，两位领导人都在全力应对一场可能旷日持久的战斗。在乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区，乌克兰军队配备了西方提供的重型武器，正在沿着一条480公里长的前线与俄罗斯军队作战。经过数周激烈战斗，俄罗斯只取得了些许进展。 |
| The Ukrainian military said that the Russian army had deployed 19 battalion tactical groups — each with as many as 1,000 troops — to the Russian border town of Belgorod in preparation for an assault to slow a Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv and to break through Ukrainian defensive lines elsewhere in the region. |
| 乌克兰军方表示，俄军在俄罗斯边境城镇别尔哥罗德部署了19个营级战术群——一个战术群的士兵可达1000人——准备发起攻击，以减缓乌克兰在哈尔科夫附近的反攻，并突破该地区其他地方的乌克兰防线。 |
| In Warsaw, protesters chanting “fascists” splashed red liquid on the face of Russia’s ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev, as he and other Russian diplomats visited a memorial honoring Red Army soldiers killed in World War II. A spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Maria V. Zakharova, called the protesters “admirers of neo-Nazism.’’ |
| 在华沙，高呼“法西斯”的抗议者将红色液体泼在俄罗斯驻波兰大使谢尔盖·安德烈耶夫的脸上，当时他和其他俄罗斯外交官正在参观“二战”红军阵亡士兵纪念碑。俄罗斯外交部发言人玛丽亚·扎哈罗娃称抗议者是“新纳粹主义的崇拜者”。 |
| Western and Ukrainian officials had speculated that Mr. Putin might use the martial pomp of the May 9 ceremony to officially declare Russia is in a state of war and expand military conscription, allowing him to increase his depleted forces that have faced so many struggles on the battlefield. |
| 西方和乌克兰官员曾推测，普京可能会利用5月9日仪式上的军力展示正式宣布俄罗斯处于战争状态并扩大征兵规模，使他能够为因面临重重困难而枯竭殆尽的部队增加兵力。 |
| But analysts said that a mass mobilization of the Russian public, an increase in conscription or a switch to an austere wartime economy would undermine the balance he had struck and bring the reality of war into many more households. Mr. Putin pledged early on that conscripts — young Russian men who are required to complete a year of military service — would not be sent into battle. After many were, Mr. Putin ordered an investigation. |
| 但分析人士表示，对俄罗斯公众的大规模动员、增加征兵或转向战时紧缩经济政策将破坏他所达成的平衡，并将战争现实带入更多家庭。普京早些时候承诺，那些按要求服一年义务役的俄罗斯男青年不会被派上战场。在发现许多这样的义务兵被派上战场后，普京下令进行调查。 |
| “It could turn out that people are prepared to support the war while sitting at home in front of the TV, as they say, but that they are not at all prepared to go and fight,” Mr. Pavlovsky said. “That’s the central position that Putin understands and is trying not to touch.” |
| “也许正如人们所说，他们可能会在家里坐在电视机前支持战争，但他们根本没有准备去战斗，”帕夫洛夫斯基说。“普京明白这一核心立场，并且试图不去触及它。” |
| The choreography of the parade itself seemed aimed at the comfortably familiar: troops and vehicles marched and rolled through Red Square as they had in previous years and did not show the “Z” symbol that has come to represent support for the Ukraine war. |
| 阅兵式的编排本身似乎针对的是熟悉的观众：像往年一样，军队和车辆在红场推进前行，并没有展示代表支持乌克兰战争的“Z”符号。 |
| Even during Monday’s celebrations, glimmers of unrest inside Russia continued to show. OVD-Info, a rights group, reported detentions of scattered protesters across the country. It distributed a photo of a man who was later arrested for having placed a box of chocolates on a central Moscow bench beside a handwritten sign that read: “Have some candy if you’re against the war.” |
| 即使在周一的庆祝活动中，俄罗斯国内的动荡局势的影子仍在继续显现。维权组织OVD-Info报道了分散在全国各地的抗议者被拘留的情况。该组织发出了一名男子的照片，这位男子在莫斯科市中心的一个长凳上放了一盒巧克力，旁边是一个手写的标识：“如果你反对战争，请吃点糖果。”他因此被捕。 |
| In the most dramatic act of protest, two Russian journalists at Lenta.ru, a pro-Kremlin news website, suddenly filled its home page with antiwar articles, including one that declared “Putin must go.” |
| 在最戏剧性的抗议活动中，亲克里姆林宫新闻网站Lenta.ru的两名俄罗斯记者突然用反战文章填满该网站主页，其中包括一篇宣称“普京必须下台”的文章。 |
| “Do not fear!” the article, posted briefly on the website, stated. “Do not be silent! Resist! You are not alone, and we are many! The future is ours!” |
| “不要害怕！”这篇短暂出现的文章说。“不要沉默！抵抗吧！你并不孤单，我们有很多人！未来是我们的！” |
| In his speech, Mr. Putin rehashed old arguments — that the invasion was the “only correct decision” because, he falsely claimed, Ukraine was planning a “punitive invasion” of its Russian-controlled territory, and because NATO was building up troops near Russia’s borders. |
| 普京在讲话中重申了旧的论点——入侵是“唯一正确的决定”，因为他错误地声称，乌克兰正计划对其俄罗斯控制的领土进行“惩罚性入侵”，并且因为北约正在俄罗斯的边境附近集结军队。 |
| But some analysts warned that even if Mr. Putin defied some Western expectations of escalation, the threat remained high in the coming weeks. Tatiana Stanovaya, who has long studied Mr. Putin and founded the France-based political analysis firm R. Politik, said the Russian president likely had seen the Victory Day parade as the wrong time and place to signal an escalation — especially because many Russians were still enjoying the country’s traditional holiday period of early May. |
| 但一些分析人士警告称，即使普京并没有像西方预测的那样将事态升级，未来几周仍然面临很大的威胁。创立了总部位于法国的政治分析公司R.Politik的塔蒂亚娜·斯塔诺瓦娅研究普京多年，她表示，俄罗斯总统可能认为，胜利日阅兵这个场合不适合传达局势升级的信息——尤其考虑到许多俄罗斯人仍然在享受该国5月初的传统假日。 |
| She said the greatest danger lay in Mr. Putin’s frustration at the West’s arms deliveries to Ukraine, and that he might use Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal to deter it, by detonating a single weapon to demonstrative effect. In Mr. Putin’s narrative, the West is goading Ukraine into resistance in order to weaken Russia; late last month, Mr. Putin warned countries that “create a strategic threat to Russia” could expect “retaliatory strikes” that would be “lightning fast.” |
| 她说，最大的危险在于普京对西方向乌克兰运送武器的不满程度，他可能会利用俄罗斯庞大的核武库进行威慑，引爆单一武器以达到威慑效果。在普京的叙述中，西方正在煽动乌克兰抵抗以削弱俄罗斯；上个月末，普京警告那些“对俄罗斯构成战略威胁”的国家可能会遭到“闪电般快速”的“报复性打击”。 |
| “In his understanding, the problems that Russia is facing in Ukraine right now stem not from a lack of forces but from the West arming Ukraine,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “He’s at war with the West, so he has to show the West that it must retreat. And he has to show it in a way that really scares everyone.” |
| “在他的理解中，俄罗斯目前在乌克兰面临的问题并非源于缺乏兵力，而是源于西方武装乌克兰，”斯塔诺瓦娅说。“他的交战对手是西方，所以他就得向西方展示它必须后退。他必须以一种让每个人都非常害怕的方式来展示它。” |
| Mr. Putin reserved his toughest language in Monday’s speech for the United States. It was the United States and its “minions” that were using Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” to threaten Russia, he said, forcing him to respond militarily. And it was the United States, he said, that was “humiliating” the world after the fall of the Soviet Union by proclaiming its “exceptionalism.” |
| 在周一的演讲中，普京将最严厉的措辞留给了美国。他说，是美国及其“喽啰”利用乌克兰“新纳粹分子”威胁俄罗斯，迫使他做出军事回应，是美国在苏联解体后通过宣扬其“例外主义”来“羞辱”世界。 |
| “Without a Western retreat, there’s no way Putin is going to win the war now,” Ms. Stanovaya said. |
| “如果西方不后退，普京现在不可能赢得战争，”斯塔诺瓦娅说。 |
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