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| SEOUL — When Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s, experts debated whether the decision would make the country safer or more vulnerable to an invasion from Moscow, its nuclear-armed neighbor. |
| 首尔——1990年代乌克兰放弃核武器时，专家们争论这一决定会使该国更安全还是更容易受到拥有核武器的邻国俄罗斯的入侵。 |
| Now, as Russia pounds Ukrainian cities while being accused of committing atrocities against civilians, many in South Korea say there is no more room for debate. |
| 现在，随着俄罗斯重创乌克兰城市并且被指对平民犯下暴行，许多韩国人表示没有更多辩论的余地。 |
| Since the conflict began, South Koreans have flooded online chat rooms with discussions about their country’s need to have nuclear weapons to prevent an invasion from North Korea, their own nuclear-armed neighbor. On Tuesday, North Korea warned that it would use its nuclear weapons “at the outset of war,” should one with the South ever start. |
| 自俄乌冲突开始以来，韩国的网络聊天室中充斥着关于该国需要核武器以防拥有核武器的邻国朝鲜入侵的讨论。周二，朝鲜警告称，如果与韩国开战，它将“在战争一开始”就使用核武器。 |
| Like Ukraine, South Korea once had nuclear weapons within its borders. And Seoul abandoned its own covert nuclear program in the 1970s in exchange for security guarantees from the United States. But as they watch Ukrainians battle Russian forces and plead for outside military assistance, many South Koreans fear that was a mistake. |
| 与乌克兰一样，韩国境内也曾有核武器。首尔在1970年代放弃了自己的秘密核计划，以换取美国的安全保证。但当许多韩国人看到乌克兰人对抗俄军并请求外部军事援助时，他们担心放弃核武是一个错误。 |
| “There is no justice in this world, only national interests,” said one commentator on Twitter. “We must build our own defense, arming ourselves with nuclear weapons, unless we want to find ourselves in the sorry state Ukraine is in now.” |
| “这个世界上没有正义，只有国家利益，”Twitter上的一位评论者说。“我们必须建立自己的防御，用核武器武装自己，否则我们就会像乌克兰现在一样后悔万分。” |
| South Koreans have demanded nuclear weapons for years as North Korea expanded its arsenal and provoked Washington with missile tests. In one recent survey of South Koreans, 71 percent of the respondents supported arming the country with nuclear weapons, according to a research paper published in February by the Carnegie Endowment and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. |
| 随着朝鲜扩大其核武库并通过导弹试验激怒华盛顿，韩国人多年来一直要求拥有核武器。根据卡内基基金会和芝加哥全球事务委员会2月发表的一份研究论文，在最近对韩国人的一项调查中，71%的受访者支持用核武器武装该国。 |
| While North and South Korea see the war in Ukraine differently — with the North supporting Russia and the South condemning Moscow’s military adventurism — both countries appear to have drawn similar conclusions from the conflict. |
| 虽然朝鲜和韩国对俄乌战争的看法不同——朝鲜支持俄罗斯，韩国则谴责莫斯科的军事冒险主义——但两国似乎都从冲突中得出了相似的结论。 |
| For South Koreans, the war has shown the extent to which a nuclear-armed power can get away with invading a non-nuclear neighbor when fears of nuclear war make intervention less likely. And for the North, it offered further proof of the advantages of a homegrown nuclear deterrent. |
| 对韩国人来说，这场战争表明，当干预的可能性因恐惧核战争而降低时，核武器拥有国在入侵无核国家时可以多么为所欲为。对于朝鲜来说，它进一步证明了本土核威慑的优势。 |
| Analysts say North Korea is now more determined than ever to keep its nuclear arsenal, as the South confronts its own vulnerability. |
| 分析人士说，朝鲜现在比以往任何时候都更加坚定地要保留其核武库，而韩国则要面对自己的这种劣势。 |
| “The war in Ukraine is a chilling reminder that when things get really dicey, there is a limit to how much your friends can do for you,” said Cho Kyong-hwan, a member of the Presidential Commission on Policy Planning in Seoul. “At the end of the day, you only have your own power to defend yourself.” |
| “乌克兰战争让人清醒地意识到，当事情变得非常危险时，你的朋友能为你做的事情是有限的，”首尔总统政策规划委员会成员赵庆焕（音）说。“归根结底，你只能靠自己的力量保护自己。” |
| Drawing parallels between South Korea and Ukraine can be misleading. South Korea ranks sixth in the world in military strength and North Korea is 30th, according to the Global Firepower Index, which ranks conventional war-making capabilities. (Ukraine is 22nd and Russia is second.) |
| 将韩国和乌克兰相提并论也许会有误导性。根据对常规战争能力进行排名的全球火力指数，韩国的军事实力排名世界第六，朝鲜排名第30。（乌克兰排名第22，俄罗斯排名第二。） |
| Ukraine is not a NATO member and does not have a formal alliance with the United States, whereas Seoul and Washington are bound by a mutual defense treaty. |
| 乌克兰不是北约成员，也没有与美国正式结盟，而首尔和华盛顿则受共同防御条约的约束。 |
| When the defense chiefs of the United States and South Korea held their annual meeting in December, Washington renewed its commitment to “extended deterrence,” vowing to defend its South Korean ally with all its military capabilities, “including nuclear,” should war break out on the Korean Peninsula. About 28,500 American troops are stationed here. |
| 当美国和韩国的国防部长在12月举行年度会议时，华盛顿重申了“扩展核威慑”的承诺，誓言一旦朝鲜半岛爆发战争，将以“包括核武器”在内的所有军事能力保卫韩国盟友。大约有2.85万名美军驻扎在韩国。 |
| Still, many in the country cannot shake the fear that they might one day be abandoned by the United States. |
| 尽管如此，许多韩国人仍无法摆脱对有一天会被美国抛弃的恐惧。 |
| South Koreans questioned Washington’s commitment to the alliance when President Donald J. Trump demanded what they said were exorbitant sums for keeping American troops in the country. They watched in disbelief as the United States led a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. |
| 当特朗普总统向韩国要求提供巨额费用以驻留美军在韩国时，韩国人质疑华盛顿对该联盟的承诺。他们以难以置信的心情目睹美国去年在阿富汗的混乱撤军。 |
| And as they witnessed Washington’s failure to prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they wondered whether the United States would stop North Korea from invading the South, especially at the risk of leaving American cities and military bases in the Asia-Pacific more vulnerable to a nuclear attack. |
| 当他们看到华盛顿未能阻止俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，他们不知道美国是否会阻止朝鲜入侵韩国，尤其是当这样做会使美国在亚太地区的城市和军事基地更容易受到核攻击。 |
| “We don’t see global American leadership anymore. Instead, we rather find it feckless and helpless,” Lee Sang-min, a senior lawmaker affiliated with the governing Democratic Party, told a parliamentary hearing in February. “We even get skeptical whether we should rely entirely on the United States on issues that relate directly to our survival and prosperity.” |
| “我们看不到美国的全球领导地位了。相反，我们认为它既无能又无助，”隶属于执政的民主党的高级立法者李相民（音）在2月的议会听证会上说。“我们甚至怀疑，我们是否应该在关乎自身生存和繁荣的问题上完全依赖美国。” |
| People in both Koreas view themselves as a small nation that has suffered numerous invasions and been occupied and divided by foreign forces. A once-common Korean saying advised: “Don’t trust the Americans and don’t be fooled by the Soviets, the Japanese will rise again and the Chinese will kill you — Koreans, be careful!” |
| 朝韩两国人民都认为自己是遭受多次侵略、被外国军队占领和分裂的小国。一句曾经很常见的韩语俗话说：“别信美国人，别被苏联人耍，日本人会再次崛起，中国人会杀了你们——韩国人，小心！” |
| Last week, Ukrainian officials warned that Russia may try to divide their country as Korea was divided after World War II. |
| 上周，乌克兰官员警告说，俄罗斯可能会试图分裂他们的国家，就像朝鲜半岛在二战后分裂一样。 |
| Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, has called his nuclear arsenal a “treasured sword” that will safeguard his country once and for all from foreign invaders. “We must be strong,” Mr. Kim said after resuming intercontinental ballistic missile tests in March. Only “nuclear war deterrence” will protect North Korea from “all threats and blackmails by the imperialists.” |
| 朝鲜领导人金正恩称，他的核武库是一把“宝剑”，可以永远保护他的国家不受外国侵略者的侵犯。“我们必须强大，”金正恩在3月恢复洲际弹道导弹试验后说。只有“核战争威慑”才能保护朝鲜免受“帝国主义的一切威胁讹诈”。 |
| Not long ago, similar ideas were popular in South Korea. In the 1990s, a novel titled “The Rose of Sharon Blooms Again” became a runaway best seller, with a plotline promoting nuclear nationalism. |
| 不久前，类似的想法在韩国也很流行。1990年代，一本名为《沙伦的玫瑰再次绽放》(The Rose of Sharon Blooms Again)的小说成为畅销书，其情节是宣传核民族主义。 |
| In the book, the C.I.A. is suspected of assassinating a Korean nuclear physicist to stop him from building nuclear weapons, but South and North Korea join forces to build them — and deter another Japanese invasion of Korea. |
| 在书中，中情局涉嫌暗杀一名韩国核物理学家，以阻止他制造核武器，但韩国和朝鲜联合起来制造出核武器，并阻止日本再次入侵朝鲜半岛。 |
| “Who can guarantee that the Americans will remain our protector forever?” the protagonist, a newspaper reporter chasing the C.I.A. plot, says in the novel’s most famous line. |
| “谁能保证美国人会永远保护我们？”该书主人公、一名追踪中情局阴谋的报社记者说，这是小说最著名的一句话。 |
| In real life, South Korea’s military dictator, Park Chung-hee, embarked on a covert nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, when the United States began reducing its military presence in the country. Washington forced Seoul to abandon the program, promising to keep the country under its so-called nuclear umbrella. |
| 在现实生活中，韩国军事独裁者朴正熙在1970年代开展了一项秘密核武器计划，当时美国开始减少在该国的军事存在。华盛顿迫使首尔放弃核项目，并承诺将该国置于所谓的核保护伞之下。 |
| In 1991, the United States withdrew all of its nuclear weapons from South Korea, once numbering as many as 950, as part of the global nuclear arms reduction program. But Washington could not stop North Korea from building its own nuclear arsenal. |
| 1991年，作为全球削减核武器计划的一部分，美国从韩国撤回了全部核武器，其数量曾一度多达950枚。但华盛顿无法阻止朝鲜建造自己的核武库。 |
| That has left South Korea facing three nuclear states to the north and west: North Korea, Russia and China. |
| 这让韩国在北方和西方面临三个核国家：朝鲜、俄罗斯和中国。 |
| “South Koreans wonder who would protect them if the United States bowed out,” said Lee Byong-chul, an expert in nuclear proliferation at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. |
| “韩国人想知道，如果美国退出，谁会保护他们，”首尔庆南大学远东研究所核扩散专家李炳哲（音）说。 |
| Calls for nuclear weapons have often bubbled up in South Korea over the decades, but they have never become a part of a mainstream political movement. President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, who has promised to strengthen ties with the United States, has disavowed a nuclear-armed South Korea. |
| 几十年来，韩国经常出现要求拥有核武器的呼声，但它们从未成为主流政治运动的一部分。曾承诺加强与美国关系的候任总统尹锡悦反对韩国拥有核武器。 |
| Washington fears that if Seoul were to build nuclear weapons, it would trigger a regional arms race and eliminate any hope of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Secretary of the Army Christine Elizabeth Wormuth said last month that she “would be hesitant to contemplate” bringing nuclear weapons back to the peninsula. |
| 华盛顿担心，如果韩国制造核武器，将引发地区军备竞赛，并且彻底消除朝鲜半岛无核化的希望。陆军部长克里斯汀·伊丽莎白·沃姆斯上个月表示，她对于考虑将核武器带回朝鲜半岛“感到犹豫”。 |
| Analysts like Mr. Cho, however, have argued it is time for Washington to boost South Korea’s confidence in extended deterrence. One possibility, they say, is to introduce a nuclear-sharing agreement with Seoul, similar to the one in which NATO aircraft would be allowed to carry American nuclear weapons in wartime. |
| 然而，像赵庆焕这样的分析人士认为，现在华盛顿应当增强韩国对扩展核威慑的信心。他们说，一种可能性是与首尔达成一项核共享协议，类似于在战时允许北约飞机携带美国核武器的协议。 |
| When considering such options, South Koreans have more than a belligerent North Korea in mind: In the Carnegie Endowment survey, 56 percent of the respondents said that China would be “the biggest threat” to South Korea in the next 10 years. |
| 在考虑这些选项时，韩国人脑海中不只有好战的朝鲜：在卡内基国际和平基金会的调查中，56%的受访者表示，中国将是韩国未来10年的“最大威胁”。 |
| If China were to invade Taiwan — the self-governing, democratic island that Beijing claims as its own — would North Korea, Beijing’s ally, see that as an opportunity to invade the South? And if Washington were facing conflicts in both Taiwan and South Korea, how would it respond? |
| 如果中国入侵台湾——北京宣称对这个自治、民主的岛屿拥有主权——北京的盟友朝鲜会认为这是入侵韩国的机会吗？如果华盛顿同时面临台湾和韩国的冲突，它会如何回应？ |
| Uncomfortable questions such as these have led to “greater calls for South Korea to actually have its own nuclear deterrent,” said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, during an online forum last month. “This is an issue that we’re really going to have to grapple with in the near future.” |
| 华盛顿史汀生中心高级研究员陶恩(Jenny Town)上月在一个在线论坛上表示，这类令人不安的问题导致“人们更强烈地呼吁韩国真正拥有自己的核威慑力量”。“这是一个我们在不久的将来确实必须努力解决的问题。” |
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