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| In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be “pointless and extremely dangerous.” It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.” | 1月的时候，一个现役和退休俄罗斯军官组织的负责人宣称，入侵乌克兰将“毫无意义且极其危险”。他说，这将导致数千人丧生，使俄罗斯人和乌克兰人终生为敌，冒下与北约开战的风险，并威胁到“俄罗斯本身作为一个国家的存在”。 |
| To many Russians, that seemed like a far-fetched scenario, since few imagined that an invasion of Ukraine was really possible. But two months later, as Russia’s advance stalls in Ukraine, the prophecy looms large. Reached by phone this week, the retired general who authored the declaration, Leonid Ivashov, said he stood by it, though he could not speak freely given Russia’s wartime censorship: “I do not disavow what I said.” | 对许多俄罗斯人来说，这种场景似乎非常遥远，因为很少有人认为乌克兰真会遭到入侵。但两个月后，随着俄罗斯在乌克兰陷入停滞，这样的预言越来越逼近现实。本周通过电话联系起草宣言的退休将军列昂尼德·伊瓦绍夫时，他表示自己坚持这一立场，但鉴于俄罗斯战时的审查制度，他无法自由发言。他说：“我不否认我所说的话。” |
| In Russia, the slow going and the heavy toll of President Vladimir V. Putin’s war on Ukraine are setting off questions about his military’s planning capability, his confidence in his top spies and loyal defense minister, and the quality of the intelligence that reaches him. It also shows the pitfalls of Mr. Putin’s top-down governance, in which officials and military officers have little leeway to make their own decisions and adapt to developments in real time. | 在俄罗斯，普京总统发动的乌克兰战争进展缓慢、伤亡惨重，这引发人们质疑俄军的计划能力、普京对高级间谍和忠诚的国防部长的信心，以及他所掌握的情报质量。它还显示出普京自上而下治理方式的缺陷，在这种治理方式下，官员和军官几乎没有自己做决定的余地，以及实时适应事态发展的灵活性。 |
| The failures of Mr. Putin’s campaign are apparent in the striking number of senior military commanders believed to have been killed in the fighting. Ukraine says it has killed at least six Russian generals, while Russia acknowledges one of their deaths, along with that of the deputy commander of its Black Sea fleet. American officials say they cannot confirm the number of Russian troop deaths, but that Russia’s invasion plan appears to have been stymied by bad intelligence. | 据信，在战斗中丧生的俄罗斯高级军事指挥官数量惊人，从这一点可以明显看出普京的失败。乌克兰表示已经杀死了至少六名俄罗斯将军，俄方承认其中一名将军以及一名黑海舰队副司令死亡。美国官员表示，他们无法确认俄罗斯军队的死亡人数，但俄罗斯的入侵计划似乎受到了错误情报的阻碍。 |
| The lack of progress is so apparent that a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war — even as Russian propaganda claims that the slog is a consequence of the military’s care to avoid harming civilians. Igor Girkin, a former colonel in Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence agency and the former “defense minister” of Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, said in a video interview posted online on Monday that Russia had made a “catastrophically incorrect assessment” of Ukraine’s forces. | 缺乏进展如此明显，以至于一些俄罗斯战争支持者开始相互指责——尽管俄罗斯的宣传声称，进展之所以缓慢是军方谨慎避免伤害平民的结果。俄罗斯联邦安全局前上校、俄罗斯支持的乌克兰东部分裂分子的前“国防部长”伊戈尔·吉尔金周一在网上发布的视频采访中表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰军队做出了“灾难性的错误评估”。 |
| “The enemy was underestimated in every aspect,” Mr. Girkin said. | “敌人在各个方面都被低估了，”吉尔金说。 |
| The Russian forces’ poor performance has also surprised analysts, who predicted at the start of the war that Russia’s massive, technologically advanced military would make short work of Ukraine. Mr. Putin himself seems to have counted on his troops quickly seizing major cities, including the capital, Kyiv, decapitating the government and installing a puppet regime under the Kremlin’s control. | 俄罗斯军队的糟糕表现也让分析人士感到惊讶，他们在战争开始时曾预测，俄罗斯规模庞大、技术先进的军队会速战速决。普京本人似乎指望他的军队迅速占领包括首都基辅在内的主要城市，解散乌克兰政府并建立一个受克里姆林宫控制的傀儡政权。 |
| “Take power into your own hands,” Mr. Putin urged Ukrainian soldiers on the second day of the invasion, apparently hoping Ukraine would go down without a fight. | 普京在入侵的第二天敦促乌克兰士兵“自己掌权”，显然是希望乌克兰不战而降。 |
| Instead, Ukraine fought back. Nearly a month has passed, and Russian troops appear bogged down in the face of relentless attacks from a much weaker, though far more maneuverable, Ukrainian military. | 相反，乌克兰进行了反击。将近一个月过去了，面对来自实力弱得多但机动性更强的乌克兰军队的无情攻击，俄罗斯军队似乎陷入了困境。 |
| “There was probably the hope that they wouldn’t resist so intensely,” Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a retired lieutenant general and a regular Russian state television commentator, said of Ukraine’s forces. “They were expected to be more reasonable.” | “可能抱着对方不会这样强烈抵抗的希望，”退役中将、俄罗斯国家电视台常驻评论员叶夫根尼·布津斯基在谈到乌克兰军队时说。“以为他们会做出更理性的选择。” |
| As if responding to criticism, Mr. Putin has said repeatedly in his public comments about the war that it is going “according to plan.” | 似乎在回应批评，普京在公开评论中多次表示，这场战争正在“按计划”进行。 |
| “We can definitively say that nothing is going to plan,” countered Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst. “It has been decades since the Soviet and Russian armies have seen such great losses in such a short period of time.” | “我们可以肯定地说，没有任何事在按计划进行，”俄罗斯军事分析家帕维尔·卢津反驳说。“几十年来都没有见过苏联和俄罗斯军队在如此短的时间内遭受如此巨大的损失。” |
| Russia last announced its combat losses three weeks ago — 498 deaths as of March 2. American officials now say that a conservative estimate puts the Russian military death toll at 7,000. Russia says it lost a total of 11,000 service members in nearly a decade of fighting in Chechnya. | 俄罗斯上一次宣布战斗伤亡是在三周前——截至3月2日，已有498人死亡。美国官员现在表示，保守估计俄罗斯军队的死亡人数为7000人。俄罗斯表示，在持续近十年的车臣战争中，它总共失去了1.1万名军人。 |
| The failures in Ukraine have started to create fissures within Russian leadership, according to Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia’s military and security services. The top Russian intelligence official in charge of overseeing the recruitment of spies and diversionary operations in Ukraine has been put under house arrest along with his deputy, Mr. Soldatov said. Even Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, who vacations with Mr. Putin and has been spoken of as a potential presidential successor, has suffered a loss of standing, according to Mr. Soldatov’s sources. | 研究俄罗斯军事和安全部门的专家、作家安德烈·索尔达托夫表示，在乌克兰的失败已经开始在俄罗斯领导层内部制造裂痕。索尔达托夫说，负责监督在乌克兰招募间谍和转移注意力行动的俄罗斯最高情报官员与其副手一起被软禁。根据索尔达托夫的消息来源，即使是与普京一起度假并被称为潜在总统继任者的俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古也失去了地位。 |
| “It looks like everybody is on edge,” Mr. Soldatov said. | “似乎每个人都坐立不安，”索尔达托夫说。 |
| Mr. Soldatov’s claims could not be independently verified, and some independent experts have challenged them. But Mr. Shoigu has not been shown meeting with Mr. Putin in person since Feb. 27, when he and his top military commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, sat at the end of a long table as Mr. Putin, on the opposite end, ordered them to place Russia’s nuclear forces at a higher level of readiness. | 索尔达托夫的说法无法得到独立核实，并遭到一些独立专家所质疑。2月27日，绍伊古与他的最高军事指挥官瓦列里·格拉西莫夫将军坐在一张长桌的一端，而坐在另一端的普京命令他们调高俄罗斯的核力量战备状态。但自那以后，就没有见到绍伊古本人出席与普京的会议。 |
| “The war has shown that the army fights poorly,” Mr. Luzin, the Russian military analyst, said. “The defense minister is responsible for this.” | “这场战争表明，军队的战斗力很差，”俄罗斯军事分析家卢津说。“国防部长要对此负责。” |
| The battlefield deaths of senior Russian commanders also reflect poorly on the Kremlin’s war planning. Captain Andrei Paliy, the deputy commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, died in combat over the port city of Mariupol, Russian officials said on Sunday. | 在战争中死亡的俄罗斯高级指挥官数量也反映了克里姆林宫的战争计划很糟糕。俄罗斯官员周日表示，俄罗斯黑海舰队副司令安德烈·帕利上尉在港口城市马里乌波尔的战斗中丧生。 |
| After Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, the deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was killed four days into the war, the city of Novorossiysk, where he was previously based, issued a statement remembering him as “a faithful comrade, a valiant warrior, a wise commander and a selfless defender of the Fatherland.” | 第41联合武装集团军副司令安德烈·苏霍维茨基少将在战争打响的第四天阵亡后，他之前驻扎的新罗西斯克市发表了一份声明，纪念他是“一位忠实的同志，一位英勇的战士、英明的指挥官和无私的祖国保卫者”。 |
| “Epaulets give no protection to terrorists,” Ukraine’s military intelligence service said in its statement announcing General Sukhovetsky’s death. | “肩章不能保护恐怖分子，”乌克兰军事情报部门在宣布苏霍维茨基将军死亡的声明中说。 |
| There was also Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityayev, among the Russian military’s most seasoned commanders. He had led Russia’s largest foreign military base in Tajikistan and was second in command of Russia’s forces in Syria. When Mr. Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine, General Mityayev was tapped to lead the storied 150th Motorized Rifle Division, whose soldiers helped take the Reichstag building in Berlin precipitating Nazi Germany’s defeat in 1945. | 还有俄罗斯军方经验最丰富的指挥官之一奥列格·米佳耶夫少将。他曾在塔吉克斯坦领导俄罗斯最大的外国军事基地，而且是俄罗斯驻叙利亚军队的副司令。当普京命令他的军队入侵乌克兰时，米佳耶夫将军被任命领导传奇的第150摩托化步兵师，该师曾帮助占领了柏林的国会大厦，加速了1945年纳粹德国的战败。 |
| According to Kyiv, he lasted less than three weeks in Ukraine. After he was killed in battle, either Russian forces left his body behind, or it was captured by the far-right Azov Battalion, which posted a photo of the bloody corpse on Telegram with the caption, “Glory to Ukraine.” | 根据基辅的说法，他在乌克兰坚持了不到三周。他在战斗中阵亡后，或许俄罗斯军队留下了他的尸体，或许是被极右翼的亚速营俘虏，该营在Telegram上发布了一张血腥尸体的照片，标题为“荣耀属于乌克兰”。 |
| For Russia’s generals, part of the problem is that many of them have spent recent decades fighting a different type of war. In Chechnya at the beginning of the 2000s, Russia succeeded in pacifying a separatist uprising in a small territory by resorting to scorched-earth decimation of entire cities. More recently in Syria, Russia’s operations have been driven by airstrikes against a population that lacks sophisticated weapons or even a regular army. | 对于俄罗斯的将军们来说，部分问题在于他们中的许多人在近几十年里一直在打不同类型的战争。在2000年代初的车臣，俄罗斯通过对整个城市进行焦土毁灭，成功地平息了一小块领土上的分离主义起义。后来在叙利亚，俄罗斯通过对缺乏尖端武器甚至正规军的民众进行空袭来推进行动。 |
| Ukraine, while far weaker militarily, has been learning from its eight-year war against Russian-backed separatist forces in the country’s east — a similar war, in miniature, to the one being fought now. Ukraine has its own air force, which remains largely intact, and modern antiaircraft systems. As convoys of Russian armor have lumbered along Ukrainian highways, Ukrainian forces have deployed drones and highly maneuverable infantry units to devastating effect, leaving abandoned and burning vehicles. | 乌克兰虽然在军事实力上要弱得多，但它一直在从与该国东部受俄罗斯支持的分离主义势力的八年战争中吸取教训——那场小规模战争与现在正在进行的战争类似。乌克兰拥有自己的空军——基本上仍然完好无损——以及现代防空系统。在俄罗斯装甲车队在乌克兰高速公路上缓慢前行时，乌克兰军队部署无人机和高度机动的步兵部队制造毁灭性影响，俄军只剩废弃和燃烧的车辆。 |
| Throughout Ukraine, Russian forces have now largely stalled. But analysts caution that the military setbacks will not deter Mr. Putin — who has cast the war at home as an existential one for Russia, and is increasingly signaling to the Russian public to prepare for a long fight. | 在整个乌克兰，俄罗斯军队现在基本上停滞不前。但分析人士警告，军事上的挫折不会阻止普京——他在国内将这场战争称为俄罗斯的生存之战，并且越来越多地在向俄罗斯公众发出要为长期战斗做准备的信号。 |
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