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| The first time the Omicron variant breached Hong Kong’s coronavirus defenses, in late 2021, the city stamped it out, cementing its status as one of the world’s most formidable redoubts of “zero Covid.” | 2021年底，奥密克戎变异株首次突破香港的新冠病毒防御时，香港将其扑灭，巩固了该地区作为世界最强大清零堡垒之一的地位。 |
| But a few weeks later, Omicron came to the metropolis again, this time causing an outbreak among cleaners at a public-housing estate that spiraled out of control. The conflagration of resulting cases is now killing people at a rate exceeding that of almost any country since the coronavirus emerged. | 但几周后，奥密克戎再次来到这个大都市，在一处清洁工居住的公屋暴发，并失去了控制。目前，疫情导致的死亡速度超过了新冠出现以来的几乎所有国家。 |
| Over the entire pandemic, Hong Kong’s death toll per capita, once far lower than those of Western nations, is no longer exceptional. A month ago, Americans had died from Covid at 90 times the rate of people in Hong Kong. By Monday, the cumulative American toll was three and a half times as high. | 整个疫情期间，香港的人均死亡人数曾经远低于西方国家，如今已不再如此。一个月前，美国人死于新冠的比例是香港人的90倍。截至周一，美国的累计死亡率是香港的3.5倍。 |
| As the United States braces for its own, less punishing rise in cases, and mainland China battles its biggest outbreak in two years, scientists have looked to Hong Kong for clues about the threat Omicron poses in an entirely different setting: a dense city where people were not only largely untouched by previous infections, but whose oldest and most vulnerable residents were also largely unvaccinated. | 目前美国正忙于应对本国相对已经不那么痛苦的病例数上升，而中国大陆则在抗击两年来最严重的疫情，与此同时，科学家们将目光转向香港，研究奥密克戎在一个完全不同的环境中构成的威胁：这是一个人口密集的城市，人们基本上没有受到以前感染的影响，而且当地最年长和最脆弱的居民也基本上没有接种疫苗。 |
| Several critical lessons emerged, health experts said. | 卫生专家说，出现了几个关键的教训。 |
| In the era of Omicron and its even more infectious subvariant, BA.2, vaccinating a broad swath of the population remained important, scientists said. But inoculating as many older people as possible had become far and away the top priority. | 科学家们说，在奥密克戎及其更具传染性的变种BA.2出现的时代，为广大人群接种疫苗仍然很重要。但是，尽量为老年人接种疫苗已经成为重中之重。 |
| That message, they said, was most pressing for China, where vaccinations in older age groups also appear to be lagging and there is little immunity from earlier infections. | 他们说，这一信息对中国来说最为紧迫。在中国，老年人群的疫苗接种似乎也比较滞后，而且此前的感染并没有带来多少免疫力。 |
| But it was relevant again in the United States, too, where subpar vaccination and booster rates among older people have left scientists concerned about a potential surge of BA.2 cases. Partly because so many more Americans have been infected and killed by the coronavirus during earlier waves, scientists do not expect the United States to face as serious a situation in the coming months as Hong Kong. | 但这在美国也同样适用。在美国，老年人的疫苗接种和加强率低于标准，让科学家担心BA.2病例可能激增。在一定程度上，由于在早期的疫情浪潮中有更多美国人被新冠病毒感染并死亡，科学家们预计美国在未来几个月不会面临像香港那样严重的情况。 |
| Hong Kong’s dreadful outbreak also signals the perils of trying to eliminate the virus without a plan for what would come next, health experts said. Omicron’s high transmissibility, they said, made outbreaks almost inevitable. | 卫生专家说，香港可怕的疫情也预示着在消除该病毒的同时，不对接下来的情况作出计划会带来什么样的危险。他们说，奥密克戎的高传染性使得病毒暴发几乎不可避免。 |
| Hong Kong, which along with mainland China had been among the last holdouts of a strategy of tight restrictions and border controls to eradicate the virus, was left vulnerable by how few of its residents had any immunity from prior infections: Before the Omicron surge, scientists estimated that only 1 percent of Hong Kong’s population had contracted the virus. | 香港和中国大陆是最后几个坚持采取严格限制和边境控制策略来根除病毒的地方之一，但由于之前的感染没有为居民带来多少免疫力，香港变得很脆弱：在奥密克戎病毒激增之前，科学家估计只有1%的香港人口感染了这种病毒。 |
| Those low levels of immunity can leave places vulnerable to waves of cases, as more contagious variants sneak in or restrictions are lifted. But governments can still prepare for those waves, said Dr. Gabriel Leung, the dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. | 随着更具传染性的变异株悄悄进入或限制解除，低水平的免疫力可能会让这些地方容易出现病例浪潮。但香港大学医学院院长梁卓伟博士表示，政府仍可以为这些浪潮做好准备。 |
| Less than one-quarter of people aged 80 and over in Hong Kong had been given two doses of a vaccine before Omicron surged, compared with more than 90 percent of people in Singapore and New Zealand. | 在奥密克戎飙升之前，香港80岁及以上的老年人中，只有不到四分之一的人接种过两剂疫苗，而在新加坡和新西兰，这一比例超过了90%。 |
| Because of the number of unvaccinated older people in China, scientists said, it might also have some difficulty lifting “zero Covid” restrictions. More than 87 percent of China’s population have been vaccinated. But just over half of people 80 and older have had two shots, and less than 20 percent of people in that age group have received a booster, Zeng Yixin, a vice minister of the National Health Commission, said on Friday. | 科学家表示，由于中国未接种疫苗的老年人数量众多，它在取消清零限制方面可能也有一些困难。中国87%以上的人口已经接种了疫苗。但国家卫生健康委员会副主任曾益新上周五表示，80岁及以上人群中只有超过一半的人打过两针，打过加强针的人不到20%。 |
| “I don’t think it’s quite ready for the transition,” Dr. Leung said. | “我认为它还没有做好过渡的准备，”梁卓伟说。 |
| A number of Asian and Pacific countries had largely kept the virus at bay for two years, only to face Omicron outbreaks because the virus was so contagious and their populations had avoided earlier infections. But high vaccination rates, including among older people, have helped many of those countries avoid more devastating surges. | 一些亚洲和太平洋国家在两年内基本上没有受到该病毒的影响，但由于奥密克戎的传染性很强，而这些国家的人口又避免了此前的感染，所以如今才会面临疫情暴发。包括老年人在内的高疫苗接种率帮助其中许多国家避免了更具破坏性的激增。 |
| In South Korea, for example, where 87 percent of people are vaccinated and 63 percent have booster shots, the cumulative death toll per capita is one-tenth of America’s, even though South Korea has recorded more than three-quarters as many cases as the United States over the entire pandemic. | 以韩国为例，该国87%的人接种了疫苗，63%的人打了加强针，人均累计死亡率仅为美国的十分之一，尽管在整个疫情期间，韩国录得的病例数超过美国的四分之三。 |
| Health experts said that Hong Kong’s difficulties vaccinating older people resulted from a combination of complacency, given the city’s earlier success in containing the virus, and unfounded fears that older people and those in poor health faced particular risks from vaccines. | 卫生专家表示，香港在老年人接种疫苗方面的困难，一方面是由于该市早些时候在控制病毒方面取得的成功导致的自满情绪，另一方面是由于人们担心老年人和健康状况不佳的人接种疫苗会面临特定风险，而这种担忧是毫无根据的。 |
| The city has now vaccinated 39 percent of residents aged 80 and above, despite having inoculated almost two-thirds of 12- to 19-year-olds. | 该市目前已为39%的80岁及以上居民接种了疫苗，尽管12至19岁的人群中已有近三分之二的人接种了疫苗。 |
| Many people in Hong Kong have been given the Chinese vaccine Sinovac, which appears to offer relatively little protection from Omicron infections but a better defense against severe disease. Scientists noted that almost 90 percent of people who died during the latest wave were not fully vaccinated, suggesting that getting shots to the most vulnerable is more important than the particular brand. | 香港许多人都接种了中国产的科兴疫苗，这种疫苗似乎对奥密克戎感染提供的保护相对较少，但对重症有较好的防御能力。科学家们指出，在最近一波死亡浪潮中，近90%的人没有完全接种疫苗，这表明给最脆弱的人接种疫苗比选择特定品牌更重要。 |
| “The problem in Hong Kong is, we haven’t succeeded in vaccinating our most vulnerable population — the elderly, especially those staying in elderly-care homes,” said Dr. Siddharth Sridhar, a clinical virologist at the University of Hong Kong. “And as a result, we are in a very bad situation.” | “香港的问题是，我们没有成功地为最脆弱的人群——老年人，特别是那些住在养老院的老年人——接种疫苗。”香港大学临床病毒学家薛达博士说。“结果是，我们的处境非常糟糕。” |
| The United States has vaccinated many more of its older residents than Hong Kong but fewer than Western Europe and has seen a high death rate. And as immunity from early vaccinations wanes and booster shots become critical for shoring up protection against Omicron among older people, the United States finds itself exposed on that count, too. About 41 percent of people 65 and over have not received a booster shot. | 美国接种疫苗的老年人比香港多，但比西欧少，而且死亡率很高。随着早期接种疫苗的免疫力下降，加强针成为巩固老年人对奥密克戎免疫力的关键，美国发现自己也面对这一问题。大约有41%的65岁及以上人士没有接种加强针。 |
| Unlike other parts of Asia that had gradually lifted restrictions in recent months, Hong Kong was not ready for its defenses to fail, scientists said. | 科学家们说，与亚洲其他地区在近几个月逐渐解除限制不同，香港还没有为防御系统失败做好准备。 |
| “From the government’s point of view, there was such a strong fixation on ‘zero Covid’ that as long as that worked, vaccination was not necessarily the priority,” said Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. | “从政府的角度来看，他们对清零有很强的固定观念，只要这种观念有效，接种疫苗就不一定是首要任务。”香港大学流行病学教授本·考林说。 |
| Many older residents and their families adopted the same view, public health experts said. If Hong Kong’s rigid social-distancing measures and careful border controls were going to keep the virus out anyway, the conventional thinking went, was getting a vaccine worth the trouble? | 公共卫生专家说，许多老年居民及其家人也持同样的观点。在一般人的观念里，如果香港严格的社交距离措施和谨慎的边境管制无论如何都能阻止病毒进入，那么接种疫苗值得吗？ |
| “If you’re telling people that the disease is never going to get in, then there’s less of an incentive to go and get vaccinated,” said Dr. David Owens, a family doctor in Hong Kong. “To an extent, the messaging around elimination confounded the need to vaccinate.” | “如果你告诉人们这种疾病永远不会进入，那么人们去接种疫苗的动机就会减弱，”香港家庭医生戴维·欧文斯说。“在某种程度上，有关清零的信息干扰了接种疫苗的必要性。” |
| Dr. Cowling, of the University of Hong Kong, said that his city could have responded in one of two ways to signs that cases would surge: either double down on “zero Covid” through measures like building better quarantine facilities for overseas arrivals, or acknowledge that outbreaks are unavoidable and raise vaccination rates. | 香港大学的考林说，该市可以用两种方式之一来应对病例即将激增的迹象：要么通过为海外入境者建立更好的检疫设施等措施来加强清零，要么承认暴发不可避免，并提高疫苗接种率。 |
| “Zero Covid is a really good strategy if you can stay at zero,” Dr. Cowling said. “But as we found in Hong Kong, it doesn’t last forever.” | “如果你能保持零感染率，那么清零是一个非常好的策略，”考林说。“但正如我们在香港发现的那样，这种情况不会永远持续下去。” |
| Hong Kong eventually took steps to persuade older people to become vaccinated, once earlier inducements like vaccine passes proved ineffective. In January, the government announced that it would ban unvaccinated people from restaurants that serve dim sum, which are popular among older residents. But it was too late. | 随着先前的疫苗通行证等诱导手段被证明无效，香港最终采取各种措施，说服老年人接种疫苗。今年1月，政府宣布将禁止未接种疫苗的人进入在老年居民中很受欢迎的点心餐馆，但为时已晚。 |
| With cases and deaths now declining, Hong Kong announced on Monday that it would lift certain restrictions. | 随着病例和死亡人数的下降，香港周一宣布将取消某些限制。 |
| Singapore began abandoning “zero Covid” policies in the summer. Dr. Ooi Eng Eong, an infectious disease expert at Duke-National University of Singapore Medical School, said that it took a wave of the Delta variant to raise vaccination rates and disabuse people of the notion that they did not need protection. | 新加坡从今年夏天开始放弃清零政策。新加坡杜克国立大学医学院的传染病专家黄英勇博士说，德尔塔变异株的感染浪潮提高了疫苗接种率，使人们不再认为他们不需要保护。 |
| Now, cases in Singapore have surged, but deaths are relatively low. | 现在，新加坡病例数激增，但死亡人数相对较低。 |
| “It’s so much more transmissible that I think wearing a face mask and all — that helps but not to the extent that it has impacted the epidemiology,” Dr. Ooi said of Omicron. “The trends are really driven by vaccination.” | “它的传播性太强了，我认为戴口罩和各种措施都是有帮助的，但没有达到影响流行病学的程度，”黄英勇在谈到奥密克戎时说。“这种趋势实际上是由接种疫苗推动的。” |
| Still, even after five or six waves of the pandemic, the reasons that some countries have succeeded while others have suffered remain unclear. | 然而，即使在经历了五、六波疫情之后，一些国家取得成功，而另一些国家却陷入困境的原因仍不清楚。 |
| Japan, for example, has tamped down on cases throughout the pandemic without resorting to full-fledged lockdowns, scientists said. | 例如，科学家们说，日本在整个大流行期间都没有采取全面封锁的做法，但病例数还是得到了控制。 |
| The country benefited from its government sharing sound public health advice early in the pandemic. As much as residents tired of precautions, they largely took the advice seriously, said Taro Yamamoto, a professor at the Institute of Tropical Medicine at Nagasaki University. | 该国受益于政府在疫情早期分享的良好公共卫生建议。长崎大学热带医学研究所教授山本太郎说，尽管居民对预防措施感到厌倦，但他们在很大程度上认真对待这些建议。 |
| Roughly 80 percent of people in Japan have had their initial vaccine series. But even though the country is lagging in administering booster doses and had a surge of Omicron infections, death rates during Omicron have remained considerably lower than in nearby South Korea. | 在日本，大约80%的人已经接种了最初两针疫苗。但是，尽管该国在加强针接种方面滞后，并出现了奥密克戎感染激增，但奥密克戎期间的死亡率仍远低于邻近的韩国。 |
| “Partly it’s a mystery,” Professor Yamamoto said. “We cannot explain it all.” | “这在一定程度上是个谜，”山本太郎说。“我们无法解释这一切。” |
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