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“战斗民族”到底有多强?乌克兰战争打破俄军强大形象
As Russia’s Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note

来源:纽约时报    2022-03-09 10:21



        CONSTANTA, Romania — When it comes to war, generals say that “mass matters.”
        罗马尼亚康斯坦察——当涉及战争时,将军们说,“数量事关紧要。”
        But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — Europe’s largest land war since 1945 — the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered.
        但在俄罗斯总统普京入侵乌克兰,引发欧洲自1945年以来规模最大地面战争两周后,俄罗斯军队本该让其他国家惧怕(更不用说效仿)的形象已被打破。
        Ukraine’s military, which is dwarfed by the Russian force in most ways, has somehow managed to stymie its opponent. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by U.S. officials.
        与俄军相比,乌克兰军队在很多方面相形见绌,却能设法阻止对手的进攻。据美国官员的保守估计,乌克兰军人已歼灭了3000多名俄罗斯士兵。
        Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russia’s convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments.
        这些官员引述保密的美国情报评估说,乌克兰用土耳其提供的美国反坦克导弹和武装无人机击落了俄罗斯伞兵乘坐的军用运输机,还击落了直升机,并将俄罗斯的入侵车队炸出了多个缺口。
        Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting.
        俄罗斯士兵已受到士气低落、燃料和食物短缺的困扰。美国和其他西方国家的官员说,一些俄军越过边境时携带的即食食品早在2002年就已过期,还有些士兵已投降,他们为避免战斗破坏了自己的车辆。
        To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraine’s army. Russia’s military, at 900,000 active duty troops and 2 million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraine’s. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol.
        诚然,大多数军事专家表示,俄罗斯最终将征服乌克兰军队。俄罗斯有90万现役军人和200万预备役军人,是乌军的八倍。俄罗斯拥有先进的战斗机、强大的海军和海军陆战队,能在多地进行两栖登陆,就像入侵之初俄军从黑海发动向马里乌波尔的进攻所证实的那样。
        And Western governments that have spoken openly about Russia’s military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians.
        西方政府公开谈论俄罗斯军事上的失败,因为他们急于散布这些消息,以打击俄罗斯人的士气,增强乌克兰人的勇气。
        But with each day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds out, the scenes of a frustrated Russia pounding, but not managing to finish off, a smaller opponent dominate screens around the world.
        但是,随着乌克兰总统泽连斯基坚持反击的天数不断增长,已占据世界各地屏幕的是,沮丧的俄军虽重创乌克兰,却无法征服这个小得多的对手。
        The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past.
        结果是:曾经害怕俄罗斯的欧洲各国军队表示,他们不再像过去那样被俄罗斯的地面部队吓倒。
        That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Putin’s chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles.
        俄罗斯已如此迅速地放弃了精准打击,转而杀害试图逃离的平民,这种做法可能会损害普京在乌克兰赢得一场持久战争的机会。军事分析人士说,虽然这种残酷战术可能最终会击败乌克兰的防御力量,但几乎肯定会引发让俄罗斯陷入多年困境的流血叛乱。最重要的是,俄罗斯已将自己军事战略上的漏洞暴露给了其欧洲邻国和美国对手,让后者在未来的战斗中能加以利用。
        “Today what I have seen is that even this huge army or military is not so huge,” said Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, Estonia’s chief of defense, during a news conference at an air base in northern Estonia with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
        “今天我所看到的是,即使这个巨大的陆军或军队也并不那么强大,”爱沙尼亚国防军司令马丁·赫列姆中将说,他是在爱沙尼亚北部一个空军基地与美国参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利将军举行记者会时说这番话的。
        Herem’s colleague and the air force chief, Brig. Gen. Rauno Sirk, in an interview with a local newspaper, was even more blunt in his assessment of the Russian air force. “If you look at what’s on the other side, you’ll see that there isn’t really an opponent anymore,” he said.
        赫列姆的同僚、空军司令劳诺·西尔克准将在接受当地一家报纸采访时,对俄罗斯空军的评价更为直言不讳。他说,“如果你看看另一面的情况,你会发现它已经算不上是个对手了”
        Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing.
        莫斯科向乌克兰各地派出了逾15万名士兵,其中大多数是应征入伍者,入侵部队已在乌克兰首都基辅以北停滞不前。人们原以为东北部城市哈尔科夫会在入侵后数小时内陷落;哈尔科夫遭到了火箭弹和炮弹的猛烈袭击,但仍在乌克兰人手中。
        Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russia’s military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Zelenskyy from his commanders. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraine’s banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate.
        五角大楼的官员每天都在警告,俄军将很快纠正错误,可能会切断乌克兰全国的通讯,切断泽连斯基与指挥官的联系。或者,俄罗斯可能会试图关闭乌克兰的银行系统或部分电网,以加大对平民人口的压力,迫使乌克兰投降。
        Even if they don’t, the officials say a frustrated Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble — although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russia’s military upgrades.
        官员们说,即使他们不这样做,气急败坏的普京也有能力将乌克兰夷为平地,尽管那会摧毁正是他想得到的战利品。使用那种武力不仅会暴露克里姆林宫在发动一场复杂的三面入侵战时的误判,还会暴露俄罗斯军事升级的限度。
        “The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military,” said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. “Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military.”
        “克里姆林宫把过去的20年花在试图实现军事现代化上,”叶利钦总统的外交部长安德烈·科济列夫在Twitter上发帖写道。“大部分预算被偷走,挪用在塞浦路斯的巨型游艇上。但身为军事顾问,不能把这些告诉总统。所以他们用谎言向总统搪塞。波将金军队。”
        During a trip through the Eastern European countries that fear they could next face Putin’s military, Milley has consistently been asked the same questions. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance?
        在访问担心自己会成为普京军队下一个目标的东欧国家期间,米利一直被问同样的问题。为什么俄军在战争的头几天里表现如此糟糕?为什么俄罗斯人如此严重地误判了乌克兰人的抵抗?
        His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: “We’ve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces,” he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its “indiscriminate firing” on civilians.
        米利在爱沙尼亚面对记者时给出的谨慎回答是:“我们已经看到一场俄罗斯空军、地面部队、特种部队、情报力量对欧洲第二大国乌克兰发动的多军种、多路入侵的大型战争,”他说。米利接下来描述了俄军的几次轰炸,以及他对平民遭受“无差别开火”的担忧。
        “It’s a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned,” he added. “But one of the lessons that’s clearly evident is that the will of the people, the will of the Ukrainian people, and the importance of national leadership and the fighting skills of the Ukrainian army has come through loud and clear.”
        “现在对任何最终得到的教训发表意见还为时过早,”米利补充说。“但已经明显的教训是,人民的意志、乌克兰人民的意志、国家领导层的重要性,以及乌克兰军队的作战技巧,这些已经清楚明白地表现出来。”
        While the Russian army’s troubles are real, the public’s view of the fight is skewed by the realities of the information battlefield. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture.
        虽然俄军遇到了真正的麻烦,但公众对这场战争的看法受到信息战场现实的扭曲。俄罗斯仍热衷于淡化这场战争,几乎不提供有关胜利或失败的信息,让人们得不到完整的情况。
        But a dissection of the Russian military’s performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isn’t allowed to make decisions either. Russia’s military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
        但通过对二十多名美国、北约和乌克兰官员的采访,对俄军到目前为止的表现进行剖析发现,年轻、毫无经验的应征入伍士兵没有现场做决定的主动权,也不允许下级军官做决定。以瓦列里·格拉西莫夫将军为首的俄罗斯军事领导层权力过于集中,即使是小事,副官们也必须征得他的同意,接受采访的官员说道。由于讨论的是作战问题,他们要求不具名。
        In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said.
        此外,这些官员说,到目前为止,事实证明俄罗斯高级将领们不肯冒风险。
        Their caution partly explains why they still don’t have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, U.S. officials said. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said.
        比如,美国官员说,他们的谨慎在一定程度上解释了为什么俄军仍未在整个乌克兰领空取得空中优势。五角大楼的一名高级官员说,面对乌克兰北部天气恶劣的问题,俄罗斯军官停飞了部分攻击机和直升机,并迫使其他飞机在较低的高度飞行,导致它们更容易受到乌克兰地面火力的打击。
        “Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. “The force employment is completely irrational, preparations for a real war near nonexistent and morale incredibly low because troops were clearly not told they would be sent into this fight.”
        “俄军的大部分力量一直在伺机行动,”国防研究机构CNA的俄罗斯研究主管迈克尔·科夫曼在电子邮件中写道。“军队的部署完全不合逻辑,为实战做的准备几乎没有,士气低落得令人难以置信,因为显然没有告诉军队,他们将被派去打这场战争。”
        But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter.
        但军事官员说,他们预计,最终,数量仍事关紧要。
        “The Russian advance is ponderous,” retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, said at a virtual Atlantic Conference event on the crisis last Friday. “But it is relentless, and there’s still a lot of force to be applied.”
        上周五,曾任北约欧洲盟军最高司令的退役上将菲利普·布里德洛夫在大西洋会议就这场危机举行的一个视频活动上表示,“虽然俄军进展缓慢,但它很残酷,而且仍有很大的可用军力。”
        
        
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