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关于韩国总统大选,你应该知道的几件事
​South Korea’s Presidential Election: What to Watch

来源:纽约时报    2022-03-09 02:35



        SEOUL — South Koreans go to the polls on Wednesday to elect their 20th president as the country faces deep anxiety over North Korea, bleak job opportunities, a housing crisis and growing generational divides.        首尔——韩国人将于周三投票选出第20任总统,与此同时这个国家正面临种种深刻焦虑,包括朝鲜问题、黯淡的就业机会、住房危机和日益扩大的代际分歧。
        Pre-election surveys have shown the two leading candidates — who are ideologically far apart — in an extremely tight race, and a clear winner may not emerge until well into the night. Here is what to know about this momentous election.        两位目前领先的候选人在意识形态上相去甚远,选前调查显示,他们的竞争非常激烈,直到深夜才会出现明显赢家。以下是关于这场重大选举需要了解的几点。
        What’s at Stake?        双方形势如何?
        The outgoing president, Moon Jae-in, cannot run again: South Korea’s leaders are limited to a single five-year term. Since the country was democratized in the late eighties, the government has regularly changed hands between the two main political forces that differ sharply over key policy issues, like how to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat.        即将离任的总统文在寅不能再次竞选:韩国领导人的任期限制为五年。自1980年代末该国实现民主化以来,政府经常在两大主要政治力量之间易手,双方在关键政策问题上存在巨大分歧,比如怎样应对朝鲜核威胁。
        “The key point to watch in this election is whether the progressives will cede power after five years,” said Heo Jin-jae, a research director at Gallup Korea. “The biggest deciding factor is how voters assess the Moon administration’s performance. Over the past five years, the conservatives and progressives have drifted apart farther than ever.”        “此次选举的重点是,进步派是否会在掌权五年后交出权力,”韩国盖洛普研究总监许镇载(音)表示。“最大的决定因素是选民如何评价文在寅政府的表现。在过去的五年里,保守派和进步派的分歧比以往任何时候都要大。”
        One of Mr. Moon’s signature policy ambitions was to build peace with the North through dialogue and cooperation. During his administration, he brokered the historic meetings between President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un.        文在寅标志性的政策抱负之一是通过对话及合作与朝鲜建立和平。他执政期间促成了特朗普总统和金正恩之间的历史性会晤。
        But those meetings did not lead to a deal on how to end North Korea’s nuclear program, and critics have blamed Mr. Moon for wasting precious diplomatic energy on what some call a misguided approach. For their part, conservatives would prefer a more confrontational policy toward North Korea.        但这些会晤没有就如何结束朝鲜的核计划达成协议,批评者指责文在寅将宝贵的外交精力浪费在一些人所称的错误做法上。保守派倾向于对朝鲜采取更具对抗性的政策。
        Who’s Running?
        参选者是谁?
        There were 14 candidates in the election, meaning the winner is unlikely to get an outright majority. But the race, according to surveys, comes down to a contest between Lee Jae-myung from Mr. Moon’s Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol from the conservative opposition People Power Party.        这次选举共有14名候选人,这意味着获胜者不太可能获得绝对多数支持。但调查显示,这场竞争最终将在文在寅所在的共同民主党的李在明和保守派反对党国民力量党的尹锡悦之间展开。
        Mr. Lee, 57, started his public life as a human rights lawyer defending the working class. He then became a mayor and governor in Gyeonggi-do, a populous province surrounding Seoul, building a reputation by expanding social benefits for young, jobless citizens.        现年57岁的李在明以为劳动阶层人士维权的人权律师身份开始其公共生活。之后,他当上了首尔周边的人口大省京畿道的市长和知事,通过扩大对失业青年的社会福利而赢得声誉。
        He has also styled himself as a firebrand who pulls no punches against his enemies. He once called past conservative leaders “pro-Japanese, dictatorial, traitorous, people-massacring forces.” His fans call him “carbonated cider,” referring approvingly to his acerbic delivery.        他还把自己塑造成一个对敌人毫不留情的火爆人物。他曾称过去的保守派领导人是“亲日、独裁、卖国、屠杀人民的势力”。他的粉丝叫他“碳酸苹果酒”,对他尖刻的表达方式表示赞许。
        Mr. Yoon, 61, is an educators’ son who passed the bar on his ninth try. He eventually built a reputation as an anti-corruption prosecutor who didn’t flinch under political pressure while going after some of the country’s richest and most powerful people. His investigations helped imprison two former presidents, as well as the head of Samsung, on corruption charges.        61岁的尹锡悦是一名教育工作者的儿子,经过第九次努力才通过司法考试。他最终建立了反腐败检察官的声誉,在政治压力下毫不退缩,对该国最富有和最有权势的一些人下手。他的调查令两名前总统以及三星的负责人因腐败指控入狱。
        Mr. Yoon served as prosecutor general under Mr. Moon. His political stock rose after he resigned last year and began criticizing Mr. Moon’s policies on everything from North Korea to housing prices. But he has occasionally blundered during TV debates, and some have described him as a political amateur.        尹锡悦曾在文在寅任内担任检察总长。在他去年辞职并开始批评文在寅从朝鲜到房价等各方面的政策后,他的政治前景看涨。但他偶尔会在电视辩论中犯错误,一些人说他在政治上表现业余。
        Neither Mr. Lee nor Mr. Yoon has extensive experience in foreign policy. The fact that the two major parties selected political outsiders as their candidates reflected voter dissatisfaction with existing leadership.        李在明和尹锡悦都没有丰富的外交政策经验。两大政党选择政治局外人作为候选人,反映了选民对现有领导层的不满。
        What Are the Major Issues?
        主要议题是什么?
        Both Mr. Yoon and Mr. Lee have promised to supply millions of new homes if elected, acknowledging that housing affordability was one of the most pressing problems for South Koreans, especially for young voters. But they differ widely over how to address that and other economic challenges.        李在明和尹锡悦都承诺如果当选,将提供数以百万计的新住房,他们承认住房负担是韩国人最紧迫的问题之一,尤其是对年轻选民而言。但他们在如何应对这一问题和其他经济挑战方面存在很大分歧。
        Mr. Lee favors a strong New Deal-like approach, including expanding welfare and universal basic income, controlling runaway real estate prices and driving growth through large-scale investment in digital and renewable-energy industries. Mr. Yoon prefers a smaller government, promoting market-led solutions and deregulation.        李在明支持一种类似罗斯福新政的强力政策,包括扩大福利和全民基本收入,控制失控的房地产价格,通过对数字和可再生能源行业的大规模投资来推动经济增长。尹锡悦更倾向于小政府,同时推动市场主导的解决方案和放松监管。
        North Korea has also loomed large during the election, and the government has been on high alert for any new provocation. On Tuesday, a North Korean patrol boat briefly crossed a disputed western sea border but retreated when the South Korean Navy fired warning shots. On Saturday, the North launched a ballistic missile toward the sea off its east coast, its second missile test in a week.        朝鲜问题在大选期间也显得非常突出,政府一直对任何新挑衅保持高度警惕。周二,一艘朝鲜巡逻艇短暂越过有争议的西部海域边界,但在韩国海军鸣枪示警后撤退。周六,朝鲜向其东海岸海域发射了一枚弹道导弹,这是一周内的第二次导弹试验。
        Mr. Yoon champions a tougher stance on North Korea, calling for sanctions and rejuvenating joint military drills between South Korea and the United States. Mr. Lee emphasizes diplomacy that would continue Mr. Moon’s policy of building peace and reconciliation.        尹锡悦主张对朝鲜采取更强硬的立场,呼吁对朝鲜实施制裁,重启韩美联合军事演习。李在明强调外交将延续文在寅的建设和平与和解的政策。
        For the young South Koreans whose choice will most likely determine the election, economic uncertainty and inequality are the main issues. Mr. Yoon has been accused of appealing to anti-feminist sentiment, which is widespread among young male voters. Mr. Lee has tried to connect to young female voters, calling Mr. Yoon a “hate-mongering populist” who stoked gender conflict to win votes.        对于最有可能决定选举结果的韩国年轻人来说,经济不确定性和不平等是主要问题。尹锡悦被指煽动反女权主义情绪,这种情绪在年轻男性选民中很普遍。李在明则试图与年轻女性选民建立联系,称尹锡悦是“散播仇恨的民粹主义者”,为了赢得选票而煽动性别冲突。
        How Many People Will Vote?        有多少人会投票
        The voter turnout in presidential elections since 1992 has ranged from 63 percent to 81.8 percent. Polling experts say that the voter turnout this week will not diverge widely from the 77.2 percent recorded for the last presidential election, held in 2017.        自1992年以来,总统选举的投票率一直在63%到81.8%之间。民调专家说,本周的选民投票率不会与2017年上次总统选举的77.2%有太大出入。
        A record 36.9 percent of the 44 million eligible voters already cast their ballots on Friday and Saturday, when the National Election Commission allowed early voting across the country.        国家选举委员会允许韩国全国各地在上周五和周六提前投票,4400万合格选民中已经有36.9%投票,创下了纪录。
        This is South Korea’s first presidential election held during the coronavirus pandemic, and it takes place as the country is struggling with a surge of cases tied to the Omicron variant. All voters must wear masks. Officials will check body temperature, squirt sanitizer on hands and also hand out plastic gloves for voters to wear as they cast their ballots.        这是韩国在新冠大流行期间举行的第一次总统选举,当前该国正在努力应对与奥密克戎变异株有关的病例激增。所有选民都必须戴口罩。官员将检查体温,在手上喷洒消毒液,还将发放塑料手套,让选民在投票时佩戴。
        Lawmakers agreed in February to reserve a special hour for voters with Covid on Election Day.        今年2月,议员们同意在选举日为感染新冠的选民预留一小时专用投票时间。
        Who’s Leading?
        领先者是谁
        By law, the results of any public opinion survey conducted within a week of the election cannot be publicized. According to earlier surveys, a small majority of South Koreans supported a change of government from progressives to conservatives. But that does not mean that Mr. Yoon is a clear favorite.        根据法律规定,在选举一周内进行的民调结果不能公开。根据早些时候的调查,支持政府从进步派转变为保守派的韩国人略占多数。但这并不意味着尹锡悦是明显的热门人选。
        Mr. Yoon and Mr. Lee have been neck and neck in most surveys. During much of the campaign, policy discussions were often drowned out by fractious allegations of legal and moral misconduct by the two candidates and their families.        在大多数调查中,李在明和尹锡悦的支持率不相上下。在竞选的大部分时间里,政策讨论经常淹没在对两位候选人及其家人在法律和道德上不当行为的愤怒指控里。
        Mr. Lee’s detractors circulated audiotapes on YouTube in which the candidate unleashed a stream of profanities against his sister-in-law. Mr. Yoon’s critics shared pictures of him “manspreading” and social media links to audio files in which his wife said the police and prosecutors would go after journalists unfriendly to him if he became president.        李在明的诋毁者在YouTube上散播了一段录音,在其中他对自己的嫂子说了一连串脏话。尹锡悦的批评者分享了他在公共场合双腿张开的“大爷式坐姿”照片,并在社交媒体上发布音频文件链接——尹锡悦的妻子在这些音频文件中表示,如果他成为总统,警方和检察官将追查对他不友好的记者。
        In surveys, more people found the candidates disagreeable than agreeable. Some voters have called the election “a contest between the unlikable.” Hong Chae-yeong, a 30-year-old voter who is between jobs in Seoul, put it bluntly. “Yoon is ignorant. Lee is a lot of talk but untrustworthy,” she said. “This election is a choice of who is the lesser of two evils.”        在调查中,更多的人认为两位候选人都令人讨厌,而不是让人喜欢。一些选民称这次选举是“讨厌鬼之间的竞争”。30岁的洪采英(音)是首尔一名正在找工作的选民,她说得很直白。“尹锡悦很无知,李在明夸夸其谈,不值得信任,”她说。“这次选举是两害相权取其轻的选择。”
                
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