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俄罗斯在乌伤亡暴露普京战略潜在弱点
Russian Troop Deaths Expose a Potential Weakness of Putin’s Strategy

来源:纽约时报    2022-03-02 05:42



        WASHINGTON — When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir V. Putin was so worried about Russian casualty figures coming to light that authorities accosted journalists who tried to cover funerals of some of the 400 troops killed during that one-month campaign.        华盛顿——2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚时,普京总统非常担心俄罗斯的伤亡数字被曝光,以至于当局要出面干扰那些试图报道阵亡士兵葬礼的记者,在那场为期一个月的行动中,有约400名士兵丧生。
        But Moscow may be losing that many soldiers daily in Mr. Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine, American and European officials said. The mounting toll for Russian troops exposes a potential weakness for the Russian president at a time when he is still claiming, publicly, that he is engaged only in a limited military operation in Ukraine’s separatist east.        然而美国和欧洲官员表示,在普京最近这次对乌克兰的入侵中,这可能只是一天的伤亡数字。俄罗斯的惨重损失对俄罗斯总统来说是一个软肋,毕竟在公开场合,他还是声称这只是一场针对分离主义的乌克兰东部进行的有限军事行动。
        No one can say with certainty just how many Russian troops have died since last Thursday, when they began what is turning into a long march to Kyiv, the capital. Some Russian units have put down their arms and refused to fight, the Pentagon said Tuesday. Major Ukrainian cities have withstood the onslaught thus far.        自上周四开始的突袭首都基辅演变为一场漫长的进军以来,究竟有多少俄军士兵丧生,至今无人知晓。五角大楼周二称,有一些俄军单位放下武器,拒绝参战。乌克兰几大城市承受住了猛烈的攻击,至今未被攻破。
        American officials had expected the northeastern city of Kharkiv to fall in a day, for example, but Ukrainian troops there have fought back and regained control despite furious rocket fire. The bodies of Russian soldiers have been left in areas surrounding Kharkiv. Videos and photos on social media show charred remains of tanks and armored vehicles, their crews dead or wounded.        例如美国官员原以为东北部城市哈尔科夫会在一天内陷落,但乌克兰士兵发起了反击,冒着密集的火箭轰炸夺回了控制权。哈尔科夫四周围能找到许多俄罗斯士兵的尸体。社交媒体上的视频和图片显示烧焦的坦克和装甲车辆,其乘员或负伤或死亡。
        The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, acknowledged on Sunday for the first time that “there are dead and wounded” Russian troops but offered no numbers. He insisted Ukrainian losses were “many times” higher. Ukraine has said its forces have killed more than 5,300 Russian troops.        俄罗斯国防部发言人伊戈尔·科纳申科夫少将在周日首次承认俄罗斯部队“存在伤亡”,但没有透露具体数字。他坚称乌克兰的损失要“数倍于”俄方。乌克兰称其军队杀死了超过5300名俄军士兵。
        Neither side’s claims have been independently verified, and Biden administration officials have refused to discuss casualty figures publicly. But one American official put the Russian losses as of Monday at 2,000, an estimate with which two European officials concurred.        双方的说法都没有得到独立证实,拜登政府官员也拒绝公开讨论伤亡数字。不过一位美国官员称截至周一俄军死亡2000人,两位欧洲官员也认同这一估计。
        Senior Pentagon officials told lawmakers in closed briefings on Monday that Russian and Ukrainian military deaths appeared to be the same, at around 1,500 on each side in the first five days, congressional officials said. But they cautioned that the figures — based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports — were estimates.        国会官员说,五角大楼高级官员在周一的国会闭门听证会上表示,俄乌两军伤亡情况似乎是差不多的,在前五天分别有约1500人丧生。不过他们提醒大家注意这是一个估计的数据,其依据是卫星图片、通讯窃听、社交媒体和战地媒体报道。
        For a comparison, nearly 2,500 American troops were killed in Afghanistan over 20 years of war.        相比之下,美国军队在20年的阿富汗战争中丧生近2500人。
        For Mr. Putin, the rising death toll could damage any remaining domestic support for his Ukrainian endeavors. Russian memories are long — and mothers of soldiers, in particular, American officials say, could easily hark back to the 15,000 troops killed when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan, or the thousands killed in Chechnya.        对普京来说,国内对他这场乌克兰行动尚存的支持会随着伤亡数字的不断上升而减少。俄罗斯人的记忆是持久的——尤其如美国官员所说,士兵的母亲自然会想起苏联入侵阿富汗后丧生的那15000人,或死于车臣的数千士兵。
        Russia has deployed field hospitals near the front lines, say military analysts, who have also monitored ambulances driving back and forth from Russian units to hospitals in neighboring Belarus, Moscow’s ally.        军事分析人士说,俄罗斯在前线附近部署了野战医院,他们在观察往返于俄军部队和邻国白俄罗斯的医院之间的救护车,后者是莫斯科的盟友。
        “Given the many reports of over 4,000 Russians killed in action, it is clear that something dramatic is happening,” said Adm. James G. Stavridis, who was NATO’s supreme allied commander before his retirement. “If Russian losses are this significant, Vladimir Putin is going to have some difficult explaining to do on his home front.”        “考虑到有多方报告阵亡的俄罗斯士兵达到4000人以上,显然情况是十分惨烈的,”退伍前任北约盟军最高司令的詹姆斯·G·斯塔夫里迪斯说。“如果俄军的伤亡如此严重,弗拉基米尔·普京会很难向国内的人交代。”
        Representative Adam B. Schiff, Democrat of California and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, added, “There are going to be a lot of Russians going home in body bags and a lot of Russian families grieving the longer this goes on.”        加利福尼亚州民主党众议员、众议院情报委员会主席亚当·希夫还说:“将会有很多俄罗斯人被装在尸袋里带回家,这样的情况延续下去,会有很多俄罗斯家庭痛失亲人。”
        In particular, Pentagon officials and military analysts said it was surprising that Russian soldiers had left behind the bodies of their comrades.        五角大楼官员和军事分析家表示,尤其考虑到俄罗斯士兵留下了他们战友的尸体,这令人感到惊讶。
        “It’s been shocking to see that they’re leaving their fallen brethren behind on the battlefield,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Eventually the moms will be like, ‘Where’s Yuri? Where’s Maksim?’”        “看到他们将倒下的同胞留在战场上,令人震惊,”奥巴马政府期间五角大楼负责俄罗斯和乌克兰事务的高级官员伊夫林·法卡斯说。“最终妈妈们会问,‘尤里在哪里?马克西姆在哪里?’”
        Already, the Ukrainian government has begun answering that question. On Sunday, authorities launched a website that they said was meant to help Russian families track down information about soldiers who may have been killed or captured. The site, which states it was created by Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, says it is providing videos of captured Russian soldiers, some of them injured. The pictures and videos change throughout the day.        乌克兰政府已经开始回答这个问题。周日,当局启动了一个网站,他们说该网站旨在帮助俄罗斯家庭寻找可能被杀或被俘士兵的信息。该网站声称它是由乌克兰内政部创建的,称它正在提供被俘俄罗斯士兵的视频,其中一些人受伤。图片和视频全天都在更新。
        “If your relatives or friends are in Ukraine and participate in the war against our people — here you can get information about their fate,” the site says.        “如果你的亲戚或朋友在乌克兰并参与了针对我们人民的战争——你可以在这里获得有关他们下落的信息,”该网站说。
        The name of the site, www.200rf.com, is a grim reference to Cargo 200, a military code word that was used by the Soviet Union to refer to the bodies of soldiers put in zinc-lined coffins for transport away from the battlefield; it is a euphemism for troops killed in war.        该网站的名称www.200rf.com暗指Cargo200,这是一个军事代号,苏联用来指代放置在镀锌棺材中以便运离战场的士兵的尸体。这是对在战争中丧生的士兵的委婉说法。
        The website is part of a campaign launched by Ukraine and the West to counter what American officials characterize as Russian disinformation, which includes Russia’s insistence before the invasion that the troops surrounding Ukraine were simply there for military exercises. Information and the battle for public opinion around the world have come to play an outsize part in a war that has come to seem like a David vs. Goliath contest.        该网站是乌克兰和西方发起的一场反对虚假信息运动的一部分,美国官员所称的俄罗斯虚假信息包括俄罗斯在入侵之前坚称驻扎在乌克兰周围的军队只是为了进行军事演习。在这场看似大卫对决歌利亚的战争中,世界各地的信息和公众舆论战发挥了超乎寻常的作用。
        On Monday, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, read out before the General Assembly what he said were the final text messages from a Russian soldier to his mother. They were obtained, he said, by Ukrainian forces after the soldier was killed. “We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass,” he wrote, according to Mr. Kyslytsya. “They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard.”        周一,乌克兰驻联合国大使谢尔盖·基斯利茨亚在联合国大会上宣读了他所说的一名俄罗斯士兵给母亲的最后一条短信。他说,这些照片是乌克兰军队在这名士兵被杀后获得的。“我们被告知,他们会欢迎我们,但他们却倒在我们的装甲车下,钻到车轮下,不让我们通过,”基斯利茨亚说。“他们叫我们法西斯。妈妈,这太难了。”
        The decision to read those texts, Russia experts and Pentagon officials said, was a not-so-veiled reminder to Mr. Putin of the role Russian mothers have had in bringing attention to military losses that the government tried to keep secret. In fact, a group now called the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia played a pivotal part in opening up the military to public scrutiny and in influencing perceptions of military service, Julie Elkner, a Russia historian, wrote in The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies.        俄罗斯问题专家和五角大楼官员表示,之所以要把这些文字读出来,也是为了明确提醒普京,俄罗斯母亲们会让人们注意到军队遭受的损失,这些损失一直是政府试图保密的。俄罗斯历史学家朱莉·埃尔克纳在《后苏联社会的权力机构期刊》(The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies)中发表文章写道,事实上,一个现在被称为“俄罗斯军人母亲委员会联盟”的组织在让军队接受公众监督,以及影响人们对兵役的看法方面发挥了关键作用。
        On Tuesday, a senior Pentagon official said entire Russian units have laid down their arms without a fight after confronting surprisingly stiff Ukrainian defense. In some cases, Russian troops have punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said.        周二,五角大楼一名高级官员表示,有的俄军部队在遭遇乌军异常坚固的防御后整编制停止了战斗,放下了武器。这名官员说,有的俄军部队在车辆的油箱上打洞,大概是为了避免战斗。
        The Pentagon official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the operational developments, declined to say how the military had made these assessments — presumably from a mosaic of intelligence including statements from captured Russian soldiers and communications intercepts — or how widespread these setbacks might be across the sprawling battlefield.        这位五角大楼官员在讨论行动进展时不愿透露姓名,他同样拒绝透露军方是如何做出这些评估的——估计是根据被俘的俄罗斯士兵的陈述和截获的通讯信息等各种情报——也没有透露这些挫折在广阔的战场上可能有多大的影响。
        Images of body bags or coffins, or soldiers killed and left on the battlefield, a Biden administration official said, would prove the most damaging to Mr. Putin at home.        拜登政府的一名官员说,事实将证明,尸袋或棺材,或士兵被杀死、尸体留在战场上的画面在国内对普京构成的伤害会是最大的。
        Ukrainian officials are using the reports and images on social media of Russian casualties to try to undercut the morale of the invading Russian forces.        乌克兰官员利用社交媒体上有关俄罗斯伤亡的报道和图片,试图削弱入侵俄罗斯军队的士气。
        On Monday, Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, offered Russian soldiers cash and amnesty if they surrendered.        周一,乌克兰国防部长阿列克谢·列兹尼科夫提出,如果俄罗斯士兵投降,将给予现金和特赦。
        “Russian soldier! You were brought to our land to kill and die,” he said. “Do not follow criminal orders. We guarantee you a full amnesty and 5 million rubles if you lay down your arms. For those who continue to behave like an occupier, there will be no mercy.”        “俄罗斯士兵!你们被带到我们的土地是为了杀戮和死亡,”他说。“不要听从犯罪的命令。如果你们放下武器,我们保证对你们提供全面特赦和五百万卢布。对于继续表现得像占领者的人,我们不会手下留情。”
                
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