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| BRUSSELS — When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine with nearly 200,000 troops, many observers — and seemingly President Vladimir V. Putin himself — expected that they would roll right in and the fighting would be over quickly. Instead, after five days of war, what appears to be unfolding is a Russian miscalculation about their own tactics and about how hard the Ukrainians would fight. |
| 布鲁塞尔——当俄罗斯以近20万军队发动对乌克兰的入侵时，许多观察家——似乎还包括普京总统本人——预计他们会立即攻入，速战速决。相反，经过五天的战争，展现在人们眼前的似乎是俄罗斯对自己战术和乌克兰人反抗决心的错误估计。 |
| No major cities have been taken after an initial Russian push toward Kyiv, the capital, stalled. While Russia appeared to pull its punches, Ukraine marshaled and armed civilians to cover more ground, and its military has attacked Russian convoys and supply lines, leaving video evidence of scorched Russian vehicles and dead soldiers. |
| 俄罗斯在对乌克兰首都基辅的首次推进停滞后，没有占领任何主要城市。虽然俄罗斯似乎有所收敛，但乌克兰集结并武装了平民，从而扩大防御范围，其军队袭击了俄罗斯的车队和补给线，留下俄罗斯车辆烧焦和士兵死亡的视频证据。 |
| But the war was already changing quickly on Monday, and ultimately, it is likely to turn on just how far Russia is willing to go to subjugate Ukraine. The Russian track record in the Syrian civil war, and in its own ruthless efforts to crush separatism in the Russian region of Chechnya, suggest an increasingly brutal campaign ahead. |
| 但战争在周一已经迅速发生了变化，最终，它很可能会转向俄罗斯愿意在多大程度上征服乌克兰。俄罗斯在叙利亚内战中的记录，以及它自己对俄罗斯车臣地区分离主义的无情镇压，暗示未来的战役将越来越残酷。 |
| Signs of that appeared on Monday in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, when Russia accelerated its bombardment of a residential district where heavy civilian casualties were reported. |
| 周一在乌克兰第二大城市哈尔科夫出现了这种迹象，当时俄罗斯加快了对一个居民区的轰炸，据报道有大量平民伤亡。 |
| “We’re only in the opening days of this, and Putin has a lot of cards to play,’’ said Douglas Lute, a former U.S. lieutenant general and ambassador to NATO. “It’s too early to be triumphalist, and there are a lot of Russian capabilities not employed yet.” |
| “我们才刚刚开始，普京手里还有很多牌，”前美国中将、驻北约大使道格拉斯·卢特说。“以胜利者自居还为时过早，而且俄罗斯还有很多未投入的战力。” |
| Russian military doctrine toward taking cities is both grimly practical and deadly, favoring heavy artillery, missiles and bombs to terrify civilians and push them to flee, while killing defenders and destroying local infrastructure and communications before advancing on the ground. |
| 俄罗斯关于占领城市的军事理论既实用又致命，它倾向于使用重型火炮、导弹和炸弹来恐吓平民并迫使他们逃离，同时在军队前进之前杀死抵抗者并摧毁当地的基础设施和通讯设施。 |
| “Russia has not yet massed its military capability in an efficient way,” Mr. Lute said. “But the Russian doctrine of mass firing and no holds barred was visible in Chechnya, and there is the potential that Russia will get its act together tactically, and that will result in mass fire against population centers.’’ |
| “俄罗斯尚未以高效的方式集中其军事能力，”卢特说。“但俄罗斯的大规模射击和不择手段的原则在车臣是显而易见的，此外他们可能在战术上会振作起来，这将导致对人口中心使用重火力。” |
| Russian forces advancing toward Kyiv continue to face “creative and effective” resistance, according to a senior Pentagon official who briefed reporters on Monday. But Russia’s assault is in just the fifth day, and Russian commanders will likely learn from their failures and adapt, the official said, as Russian forces also did in Syria. American officials say they fear that Russia may now escalate missile and aerial bombing of cities with major civilian casualties, the official said. |
| 据周一向记者作简报的五角大楼高级官员称，向基辅推进的俄罗斯军队继续面临“具有创造性和有效”的抵抗。但这位官员说，俄罗斯的进攻刚进行到第五天，俄罗斯指挥官可能会从失败中吸取教训并适应，正如俄罗斯军队在叙利亚所做的那样。这位官员说，美国官员表示他们担心俄罗斯现在可能会升级导弹以及对城市造成重大平民伤亡的空袭。 |
| Many experts say that Mr. Putin appeared to miscalculate in assuming that a quick strike on Kyiv could dislodge the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, and that Ukrainians would stay largely indifferent. That explains, the experts suggest, why Russia went in lightly, seemingly trying to limit civilian casualties. |
| 许多专家表示，普京似乎误判，以为对基辅的快速打击可能会推翻泽连斯基总统的政府，而乌克兰人大多会漠不关心。专家们认为，这就解释了为什么俄罗斯轻装介入，似乎试图限制平民伤亡。 |
| But the Ukrainians surprised the Russians with their defense, and an early effort to seize a Kyiv airport with a spearhead group, to allow reinforcements to fly in, failed badly. |
| 但乌克兰人的抵抗让俄罗斯人措手不及，早些时候，俄罗斯部署先头部队夺取基辅机场以让增援部队飞入的努力以严重失败告终。 |
| Russia has seemed markedly restrained in its use of force and even clumsy in the early days, said Mathieu Boulègue, an expert in Russian warfare at Chatham House. “They were paying the price of their own rhetoric, that this was a defensive war against fascists and neo-Nazis,’’ he said. But now “we have an irritated Kremlin, and we haven’t seen yet what Russia has in store.” |
| 查塔姆研究所的俄罗斯战争专家马蒂厄·布勒格说，俄罗斯在早期使用武力时似乎明显克制甚至笨拙。“他们为自己的论调付出了代价，称这是一场针对法西斯和新纳粹分子的防御性战争，”他说。但现在“我们看到一个被激怒的克里姆林宫，而我们还没有见到俄罗斯的实力”。 |
| The world is “starting to see stage two, when they go in with heavy artillery and ground troops, as they are doing in Kharkiv and Mariupol,’’ he said. |
| 他说，世界“将要开始看到第二阶段，他们将带着重型火炮和地面部队进入，就像他们在哈尔科夫和马里乌波尔所做的那样”。 |
| “I’m afraid this is really the beginning,” Mr. Boulègue said. “We can see a follow-on invasion with more experienced troops, with more forces, fewer precision-guided systems, more attrition, more carpet bombing and more victims.’’ |
| “恐怕这才是真正的开始，”布勒格说。“我们会在后续入侵中看到更多经验丰富的部队，更多的军力，更少的精确制导系统，更多的损耗，更多的地毯式轰炸和更多的受害者。” |
| In their effort to take Kyiv quickly, based on “terribly flawed assumptions about Ukraine,” the Russians withheld much of their combat power and capabilities and “got a bloody nose in the early days of the war,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute. |
| 国防研究机构CNA的俄罗斯研究负责人迈克尔·科夫曼表示，俄罗斯人为了迅速占领基辅，在“对乌克兰的严重错误假设”的基础上保留了大部分战斗力和军力，并“在战争的一开始”遭遇下马威。 |
| “However, we are only at the beginning of this war, and much of the euphoric optimism about the way the first 96 hours have gone belies the situation on the ground and the reality that the worst may yet be to come,” he said. |
| “然而，我们才处于战争的开端，前96小时的乐观情绪掩盖了当地局势，以及最糟的情况可能还在后头的现实，”他说。 |
| Jack Watling, an expert in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense research institution, returned from Ukraine 12 days ago and says he expects more pressure from Russian forces in the coming days. “The Russians have a lot of forces in Ukraine, and as they continue to advance in a steady pace, they can function in a combined way, and not as isolated tank columns, and they will apply a much higher level of firepower,’’ he said. |
| 国防研究机构皇家联合军种研究所的陆战专家杰克·沃特林12天前从乌克兰返回，并表示他预计未来几天俄罗斯军队会施加更大的压力。“俄罗斯人有大量部队在乌克兰，随着他们继续稳步推进，他们可以联合作战，而不是让坦克纵队孤军作战，他们将使用更高水平的火力，”他说。 |
| While Russian forces have had supply and logistical problems — in some cases stranding vehicles without fuel in the early days of the invasion — those of the Ukrainians are likely more severe. The Ukrainian Army will start to run out of ammunition in a week, the experts suggest, and out of Stinger missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles before then. |
| 虽然俄罗斯军队在入侵初期存在供应和后勤问题——某些情况下，车辆因没有燃料而停下来——但乌克兰人的问题可能更为严重。专家表示，乌克兰军队将在一周内耗尽弹药，便携式防空导弹和标枪反坦克导弹在这之前就会用完。 |
| Countries belonging to NATO and the European Union are sending ammunition and Stinger and Javelin missiles into western Ukraine from Poland, a NATO member, through a still-open border. The European Union is even, for the first time, promising to reimburse member states up to 450 million euros for the purchase and supply of weapons and equipment like flak jackets and helmets to Ukraine. |
| 北约和欧盟的国家正在通过仍然开放的边境从北约成员国波兰向乌克兰西部输送弹药、便携式防空导弹和标枪反坦克导弹。欧盟甚至首次承诺向成员国补偿高达4.5亿欧元的费用，用于购买和供应防弹衣和头盔等送达乌克兰的武器和装备。 |
| But if the Russians cut off the cities, Mr. Watling said, it will be difficult to get those supplies to Ukrainian defenders. Russian helicopters are beginning to run interdiction flights near the Polish border, and more troops are likely to move down from Belarus to cut off supply routes from Poland, he said, especially if, as it seems likely, Belarusian troops enter the war. |
| 但是，瓦特林说，如果俄罗斯人切断城市与外界的联络，将很难将这些物资提供给乌克兰的守军。他说，俄罗斯直升机开始在波兰边境附近进行拦截飞行，白俄罗斯可能会派出更多部队切断波兰的补给路线，特别是如果白俄罗斯军队参战的话，而这看上去是很有可能的。 |
| Bad starts in previous conflicts did not keep Russia from prevailing, and often at a brutal cost. |
| 在过去的冲突中，出师不利并没有阻止俄罗斯取得胜利，而且最终导致了惨重的伤亡。 |
| In Syria, the Russians had early setbacks, bringing predictions of quagmire. Yet they adapted, using missiles, airpower and artillery while their allies mostly went in on the ground. From 2015 to the end of 2017, Russian airstrikes were estimated to have killed at least 5,700 civilians, a quarter of them children, according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights. |
| 在叙利亚，俄罗斯人早早遭遇挫折，人们预言俄罗斯将陷入泥沼。然而，他们进行了调整，使用导弹、空中力量和大炮，而他们的盟友大部分都在地面上。据叙利亚人权观察站称，从2015年到2017年底，据估计，俄罗斯的空袭造成至少5700名平民死亡，其中四分之一是儿童。 |
| The two wars in Chechnya were especially brutal, destroying the capital, Grozny, and helping give Mr. Putin, then a new prime minister, a reputation for toughness. Many thousands died before Russia restored control and put a pro-Kremlin Chechen in charge. |
| 车臣的两场战争尤其残酷，摧毁了首都格罗兹尼，当时新上任的普京总理因此以强硬闻名。在成千上万的死亡后，俄罗斯恢复控制并扶植了一名亲克里姆林宫的车臣人掌权。 |
| To this point, Russia appears to have been restrained in Ukraine by the belief that “they could not turn Kyiv into Grozny and expect to govern the country,” Mr. Watling said. “But now we see the Kremlin approving demonstrative acts of extreme violence, starting in Kharkiv,” which has had severe shelling of civilian areas. |
| 到目前为止，俄罗斯在乌克兰似乎受到了约束，因为他们相信，“他们不能把基辅变成格罗兹尼，然后指望治理这个国家，”沃特林说。“但现在，我们看到克里姆林宫批准了极端暴力的威慑行动，从哈尔科夫开始，”那里的平民区遭到了猛烈炮击。 |
| There have also been more shellings of Kyiv and Chernihiv, a city northeast of the capital. |
| 基辅和位于首都东北部的城市切尔尼戈夫也遭到了更多炮击。 |
| “You don’t pacify a population that way and you lay the ground for insurgency,’’ Mr. Watling added. |
| “这样的方式不能平定民众，会为叛乱埋下伏笔，”沃特林还说。 |
| That strategy also raises a question of morale, both among the Russian forces and the Russian public back home. |
| 这一战略也对俄罗斯军队和俄罗斯国内民众的士气产生了影响。 |
| “A lot depends on how brutal the Russians are prepared to be,” said Ian Bond, foreign policy director for the Center for European Reform. “They can’t censor everything, so brutalizing Ukrainians for whom many Russians feel a connection may not be politically successful for Putin.’’ |
| “这在很大程度上取决于俄罗斯人准备采取多么残酷的手段，”欧洲改革中心的外交政策主管伊恩·邦德说。“他们不能审查所有东西，许多俄罗斯人认为自己和乌克兰人之间有着密切的联系，如果残酷对待乌克兰人，这对普京来说可能在政治上并不成功。” |
| Curtis M. Scaparrotti, a retired four-star Army general and supreme allied commander in Europe, said that Ukrainian soldiers “can’t match the Russian units, but they won’t fold, either.” |
| 退役四星陆军上将、曾任欧洲盟军最高指挥官的柯蒂斯·M·斯卡帕罗蒂表示，乌克兰士兵“比不上俄罗斯部队，但他们也不会屈服”。 |
| The Ukrainians “have to survive and transition to an insurgency, a tough task to pull off,” he said in an email. “The Russians have to consolidate gains and control a big country with a hostile populace. Next few days will indicate how this may go. If it gets difficult, the Russians will get brutal.” |
| 乌克兰人“必须生存下来，并向叛乱状态过渡，这是一项艰巨的任务”，他在电子邮件中说。“俄罗斯人必须巩固收益，控制一个民众对其怀有敌意的大国。接下来的几天将会显示出局面的走向。如果形势变得困难，俄罗斯人就会变得残酷。” |
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