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| Scientists released a pair of extensive studies over the weekend that point to a large food and live animal market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the coronavirus pandemic. |
| 科学家上周末发布了两项广泛的研究，指出中国武汉一个销售食品和活体动物的大型市场是新型冠状病毒大流行的起源地。 |
| Analyzing a wide range of data, including virus genes, maps of market stalls and the social media activity of early Covid-19 patients across Wuhan, the scientists concluded that the coronavirus was very likely present in live mammals sold at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in late 2019 and suggested that the virus spilled over into people working or shopping there on two separate occasions. |
| 通过分析各种数据，包括病毒的基因、市场摊位分布图，以及武汉各处早期的新冠病毒疾病患者的社交媒体活动，科学家们得出结论，新冠病毒在2019年底之前，很可能已在华南海鲜批发市场出售的活体哺乳动物身上存在，他们还提出，病毒通过两个不同途径溢出到在华南市场工作或购物的人身上。 |
| The studies, which together span 150 pages, are a significant salvo in the debate over the beginnings of a pandemic that has killed nearly six million people across the world. The question of whether the outbreak began with a spillover from wildlife sold at the market, a leak from a Wuhan virology lab or some other event has given rise to pitched debates over how best to stop the next pandemic. |
| 这两份研究报告总长达150页，它们为有关新冠病毒起源的辩论提供了重磅材料，这场大流行已导致全球近600万人死亡。疫情是始于市场上出售的野生动物的病原溢出，还是武汉某病毒学实验室的泄漏，或某些其他事件引起，已引发了如何最好地防止下一场大流行病暴发的激烈辩论。 |
| “When you look at all of the evidence together, it’s an extraordinarily clear picture that the pandemic started at the Huanan market,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and a co-author of both new studies. |
| “当你把所有的证据放在一起时，一个非常清晰的画面呈现出来，那就是，大流行始于华南市场，”亚利桑那大学演化生物学家迈克尔·沃洛贝说，他参加了这两项新研究。 |
| Several independent scientists said that the studies, which have not yet been published in a scientific journal, presented a compelling and rigorous new analysis of available data. |
| 几名与研究无关的科学家说，这些（尚未在科学杂志上发表的）研究对现有数据进行了令人信服和严谨的新分析。 |
| “It’s very convincing,” said Dr. Thea Fischer, an epidemiologist at the University of Copenhagen, who was not involved in the new studies. The question of whether the virus spilled over from animals “has now been settled with a very high degree of evidence, and thus confidence.” |
| “非常有说服力，”哥本哈根大学的流行病学家西娅·菲舍尔博士说，她没有参与这些新研究。病毒是否从动物溢出的问题“现在已以高超的证据解决了，因此可信度很高”。 |
| But others pointed to some gaps that still remained. The new papers did not, for example, identify an animal at the market that spread the virus to humans. |
| 但也有人指出，仍存在一些不足。例如，这些新研究并没有确定是市场上的哪种动物将病毒传播给人类的。 |
| “I think what they’re arguing could be true,” said Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “But I don’t think the quality of the data is sufficient to say that any of these scenarios are true with confidence.” |
| “我认为他们提供的证据可能真实，”弗雷德·哈钦森癌症研究中心的病毒学家杰西·布鲁姆说。“但我不觉得这些数据的质量高到足以表明其中任何一种情况的真实性是高度可信的。” |
| In a separate study published online on Friday, scientists at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed genetic traces of the earliest environmental samples collected at the market, in January 2020. |
| 中国疾病预防控制中心的科学家在上周五在线发表的另一项研究中，分析了2020年1月采自华南市场的最早环境样本的微量基因。 |
| By the time Chinese researchers arrived to collect these samples, police had shut down and disinfected the market because a number of people linked to it had become sick with what would later be recognized as Covid. No live market animals were left. |
| 中国研究人员去现场采集这些样本时，警方已关闭了华南市场，并对其进行了消毒，因为不少与该市场有关的人已患病，他们后来被确诊感染了新冠病毒。当时市场上已没有活体动物。 |
| The researchers swabbed walls, floors and other surfaces inside the market, as well as meat still in freezers and refrigerators. They also caught mice and stray cats and dogs around the market to test them, while also testing the contents of the sewers outside. The researchers then analyzed the samples for genetic traces of coronaviruses that may have been shed by people or animals. |
| 研究人员从市场里的墙、地面和其他物体表面，以及仍保存在冷藏柜和冰箱里的肉中采集了样品。他们还对市场附近抓到的老鼠和流浪猫狗进行了检测，同时也检测了市场外下水道中的样本。然后，研究人员对样本进行了分析，寻找可能从感染了新冠病毒的人或动物身上脱落下来的微量病毒基因。 |
| Although the Chinese researchers conducted their study over two years ago, it was not until Friday’s report that they publicly shared their results. They reported that the Huanan market samples included two evolutionary branches of the virus, known as lineages A and B, both of which had been circulating in early Covid cases in China. |
| 虽然中国研究人员在两年多前就进行了这项研究，但直到上周五才将他们的研究结果公开发表。他们的报告说，华南市场的环境样本中，有在演化关系上被称为A系和B系的两个新冠病毒毒株，这两个毒株都曾在中国早期确诊的新冠病毒病例中传播。 |
| These findings came as a surprise. In the early days of the pandemic in China, the only Covid cases linked to the market appeared to be Lineage B. And because Lineage B seemed to have evolved after Lineage A, some researchers suggested that the virus arrived at the market only after spreading around Wuhan. |
| 这一发现令人惊讶。在中国新冠病毒大流行的早期，与华南市场有关的确诊病例曾似乎感染的都是B系毒株。而且，因为B系毒株似乎是从A系毒株演化而来的，一些研究人员曾提出，新冠病毒是在武汉其他地方传播后，才在华南市场出现的。 |
| But that logic is upended by the new Chinese study, which finds both lineages in market samples. The findings are consistent with the scenario that Dr. Worobey and his colleagues put forward, in which at least two spillover events occurred at the market. |
| 但中国的新研究从华南市场的环境样本中找到了这两个系的毒株，推翻了上述逻辑。中国的研究结果与沃洛贝及其同事提出的情形相符，沃洛贝等人认为，至少有两起溢出事件发生在华南市场。 |
| “The beauty of it is how simply it all adds up now,” said Jeremy Kamil, a virologist at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, who was not involved in the new studies. |
| “这些研究的美妙之处在于，如此简单地合理解释了所有的一切，”路易斯安那州立大学什里夫波特健康科学中心的病毒学家杰里米·卡米尔说，他没有参与这些新研究。 |
| Mapping Cases |
| 病例分布图 |
| Although the Huanan market was an early object of suspicion, by the spring of 2020 senior members of the Trump administration were promoting the idea that the new coronavirus had escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a coronavirus laboratory located eight miles away on the other side of the Yangtze River. |
| 虽然华南市场很早就是怀疑对象，但特朗普政府的高级官员在2020年春提出了新冠病毒是从武汉病毒学研究所的实验室泄漏出来的说法，该实验室位于长江的另一边，与华南市场有10多公里的距离。 |
| There’s no direct evidence that the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was present at the lab before the pandemic. Researchers there have denied claims of a lab leak. |
| 没有直接证据表明，在新冠病毒大流行之前，该实验室里存在着后来被命名为SARS-CoV-2的新病毒。实验室的研究人员一直否认实验室泄露说。 |
| But the Chinese government has come under fire for not being forthcoming about the early days of the pandemic. |
| 但中国政府因在新冠病毒大流行初期不愿提供信息而受到批评。 |
| The report from the Chinese C.D.C. about the Huanan market’s samples, for example, had remained hidden. Starting in June 2020, two newspapers, The South China Morning Post and The Epoch Times, reported on what they claimed were leaked copies of the report. |
| 例如，中国疾控中心有关华南市场样本的报告一直没有发表。从2020年6月开始，《南华早报》和《大纪元时报》这两家报纸对它们声称是泄露的报告副本中的内容进行了报道。 |
| In January 2021, a team of experts chosen by the World Health Organization traveled to China to investigate. Collaborating with Chinese experts, the group released a report in March 2021 that contained previously undisclosed details about the market. They noted, for example, that 10 stalls in the southwest corner of the market sold live animals. |
| 2021年1月，世界卫生组织选派一个专家小组前往中国进行病毒溯源调查。该小组与中国专家合作，于2021年3月发布了调查报告，其中包括以前未曾披露的华南市场的细节。例如，报告指出，市场西南角的10个摊位有活体动物出售。 |
| The report also noted that 69 environmental samples collected from the market by the Chinese C.D.C. had turned up positive for SARS-CoV-2. But the frozen meat and live animals had all tested negative. |
| 该报告还提到，中国疾控中心从华南市场采集的环境样本中，有69份SARS-CoV-2检测呈阳性。但是，采集自冷冻肉和活体动物的样本的病毒检测都呈阴性。 |
| Still, the W.H.O. left many researchers dissatisfied. Dr. Worobey and Dr. Bloom both signed a letter, along with 16 other scientists in May 2021, calling for more investigation into the origins of Covid — including the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 had escaped from a lab. |
| 尽管如此，世卫组织的调查仍未让许多研究人员满意。2021年5月，沃洛贝、布鲁姆与其他16名科学家一起，在一封公开信上签名，呼吁对新冠病毒进行更多的溯源调查，包括SARS-CoV-2从实验室泄露的可能性。 |
| The W.H.O. experts had identified 164 cases of Covid-19 in Wuhan over the course of December 2019. Unfortunately, the cases were marked by fuzzy dots scattered across a nearly featureless map of Wuhan. |
| 世卫组织专家曾确认，武汉在2019年12月期间确诊了164例新冠病毒病例。遗憾的是，这些病例被以模糊分布的点标记在几乎没有任何标志的武汉地图上。 |
| Dr. Worobey and his colleagues used mapping tools to estimate the longitude and latitude locations of 156 of those cases. The highest density of December cases centered around the market — a relatively tiny spot in a city of 11 million people. Those cases included not just people who were initially linked to the market, but others who lived in the surrounding neighborhood. |
| 沃洛贝及其同事使用地图绘制工具估计了其中156个病例的经纬度。2019年12月确诊病例密度最高的地方以华南市场为中心，对一个拥有1100万人口的城市来说，这相当集中。这些确诊病例中不仅包括那些与华南市场有最初联系的人，也包括住在附近社区的其他人。 |
| The researchers then mapped cases from January and February of 2020. They drew upon data collected by Chinese researchers from Weibo, a social media app that created a channel for people with Covid to seek medical help. The 737 cases pulled from Weibo were concentrated away from the market, in other parts of central Wuhan with high populations of elderly residents, the study found. |
| 研究人员随后绘制了2020年1月和2月确诊病例的分布图。他们使用了中国研究人员从社交媒体微博上收集的数据，微博上曾建有一个为寻求医疗帮助的新冠病毒疾病患者提供信息的帐号。研究发现，从微博上找到的737例确诊病例集中在远离华南市场、老年人口较多的武汉市中部地区。 |
| These patterns pointed to the market as the origin of the outbreak, Dr. Worobey and his colleagues concluded. The researchers ran tests that showed it was extremely unlikely that such a pattern could be produced merely by chance. |
| 沃洛贝及其同事得出结论，这种分布模式表明，华南市场是新冠病毒暴发的源头。研究人员做的统计检验显示，这种分布不太可能仅是偶然产生的。 |
| “It’s very strong statistical evidence that this is no coincidence,” Dr. Worobey said. |
| “这是非常强的统计学证据，表明那不是巧合，”沃洛贝说。 |
| But David Relman, a microbiologist at Stanford University, raised the possibility that these patterns might be just evidence that the market boosted the epidemic after the virus started spreading in humans somewhere else. |
| 但斯坦福大学的微生物学家戴维·雷尔曼提出了另一种可能性，即这种分布模式也许只不过证明，病毒开始在其他地方的人中传播后，华南市场对疫情起了推动作用。 |
| “The virus would have arrived in a person, who then infected other people,” he said. “And the neighborhood of the market, or the market itself, became a kind of a sustained superspreader event.” |
| “病毒可能已经传到某个人身上，该人后来感染了其他人，”雷尔曼说。“市场附近的社区，或市场本身，成了一个持续的超级传播事件发生的地方。” |
| Multiple Spillovers |
| 多个溢出 |
| Dr. Worobey and his colleagues argue against that possibility, pointing to signs of spillovers within the market itself. |
| 沃洛贝及其同事不认同这种可能性，指出有迹象表明该市场本身存在溢出现象。 |
| The researchers reconstructed the floor plan of the Huanan market based on the W.H.O. report, the leaked Chinese C.D.C. study and other sources. They then mapped the locations of positive environmental samples, finding that they clustered in the area where live animals were sold. |
| 研究人员根据世卫组织的报告、泄露的中国疾控中心的研究报告和其他消息来源重建了华南市场的平面图。然后他们绘制了阳性环境样本的位置图，发现它们集中在活体动物出售的区域。 |
| Strikingly, five of the samples came from a single stall. That stall had been visited in 2014 by one of the co-authors of the new studies, Edward Holmes, a virologist at the University of Sydney. On that trip, he had taken a photograph of a cage of raccoon dogs for sale at the time. |
| 令人惊讶的是，其中五个样品来自一个摊位。新研究的共同作者之一、悉尼大学病毒学家爱德华·霍姆斯曾在2014年去过那个摊位。在那次旅行中，他拍了一张照片，上面是正在出售的一笼貉。 |
| Another co-author, Chris Newman, a wildlife biologist at the University of Oxford, was part of a research team that documented a number of live, wild mammals for sale at the Huanan market in November and December of 2019, including raccoon dogs. |
| 另一位共同作者、牛津大学野生生物学家克里斯·纽曼是一个研究团队的成员，该团队记录了2019年11月和12月华南市场上出售的一些活的野生哺乳动物，包括貉。 |
| Dr. Worobey and his colleagues also carried out a new analysis of over 800 coronaviruses sampled from early Covid cases. They found that both Lineage A and Lineage B underwent separate bursts of explosive growth. |
| 沃洛贝及同事还对早期新冠病例中采集的800多种冠状病毒进行了新的分析。他们发现A系和B系毒株都经历了单独的爆炸性增长。 |
| The most likely explanation for their results, they concluded, is that Lineage A and Lineage B each jumped on their own from an animal into different people, likely in November. |
| 他们的结论是，对这一结果最有可能的解释是，A系和B系各自从一种动物传播到不同的人身上，可能发生在11月。 |
| Both jumps, they said, could have happened at the Huanan market. In their analysis, Dr. Worobey and his colleagues found that the two earliest cases of Lineage A involved people who lived close to the market. |
| 他们说，这两次传播都可能发生在华南市场。在其分析中，沃洛贝及同事发现，A系毒株最早的两个病例涉及住在市场附近的人。 |
| The Chinese C.D.C. study published on Friday revealed a Lineage A coronavirus on a glove collected when the market shut down. |
| 中国疾控中心周五发表的研究报告显示，封锁该市场时收集的一只手套上发现了A系冠状病毒。 |
| “I think we’ve cracked this case,” said Joel Wertheim, a virologist at the University of California, San Diego, and a co-author of the new studies. |
| “我认为我们已经找到了答案，”加州大学圣地亚哥分校病毒学家、新研究的另一位合著者乔尔·韦特海姆说。 |
| Dr. Bloom, however, questioned the idea that there had been two separate spillovers. He noted that the Lineage A glove sample from the market was collected some time after the virus had begun spreading in humans, raising the possibility that it had been brought into the market. |
| 然而，布鲁姆对存在两种独立溢出的观点表示质疑。他指出，市场上的A系毒株手套样本是在病毒开始在人类当中传播一段时间后收集的，这增加了病毒被带入市场的可能性。 |
| “I am especially unconvinced by the conclusion that there must have necessarily been two different spillovers in the Huanan Seafood Market,” Dr. Bloom said. |
| “我尤其不相信华南海鲜市场一定存在两种不同溢出的结论，”布鲁姆说。 |
| New evidence could still emerge. The Chinese government, for example, could release samples taken from Wuhan patients who came down with pneumonia in November 2019, noted Dr. Relman of Stanford. |
| 新的证据仍有可能出现。例如，斯坦福大学的雷尔曼指出，中国政府可能会公布从2019年11月感染肺炎的武汉患者身上采集的样本。 |
| Researchers could also learn more by looking at the genetic samples collected by the Chinese researchers. It’s possible that the samples included genetic material not just from viruses, but from animals at the market. Sharing the raw data could enable other scientists to investigate the potential spillover in more detail. |
| 研究人员还可以通过查看中国研究人员收集的基因样本来了解更多信息。有可能样本中不仅包括病毒的遗传物质，还包括市场上动物的遗传物质。共享原始数据可以使其他科学家更详细地研究潜在的溢出。 |
| Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and a co-author of the new studies, said it was important to figure out where the wild mammals for sale at Huanan came from, and to look for evidence of past outbreaks in those places. It’s possible, for example, that villagers at the sources of that wildlife still carry antibodies from exposures to coronaviruses. |
| 加利福尼亚州拉霍亚市斯克里普斯研究所的病毒学家克里斯蒂安·安德森也是新研究的共同作者之一，他说，弄清华南市场出售的野生哺乳动物的来源，并寻找过去在这些地方暴发疫情的证据是很重要的。例如，野生动物来源地的村民有可能仍然携带着因接触冠状病毒而产生的抗体。 |
| “If I had to say what would be most helpful to do now, it would be those types of studies,” he said. |
| “如果一定要我说现在做什么事情最有帮助，那就是这种类型的研究，”他说。 |
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