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| WASHINGTON — Much of the world woke up on Thursday to the specter of an all-out war in Europe after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. That left millions of people — in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, but also in the United States and elsewhere — wondering how the conflict would affect their lives. |
| 华盛顿——周四，在俄罗斯总统普京下令军队入侵乌克兰之后，世界上很多人一觉醒来，便被欧洲爆发全面战争的恐惧所笼罩。在乌克兰和东欧，以及在美国和其他地方，无数人想知道这场冲突将对他们的生活造成怎样的影响。 |
| At least 40 Ukrainian solders were reported killed in the hours after the invasion, with estimates of tens of thousands of deaths over the course of the conflict. But beyond the anticipated bloodshed, economic penalties to punish Russia will reverberate worldwide. |
| 据报道，在入侵后的几个小时内，至少有40名乌克兰士兵死亡，估计在冲突期间会有数万人死亡。但是，除了预期中的流血冲突之外，对俄罗斯的经济制裁将在全世界产生影响。 |
| Rising energy costs and potentially slowing supply chains will take their toll on consumers. Russian cyberattacks could cripple electronic infrastructure. A new refugee crisis will require international assistance. And an era of relative calm in the West that has pervaded since the end of the Cold War might be coming to a close. |
| 不断上涨的能源成本和可能的供应链放缓将对消费者造成影响。俄罗斯的网络攻击可能使电子基础设施瘫痪。一场新的难民危机将需要国际援助。西方自冷战结束以来相对平静的时代可能即将结束。 |
| Here is what might happen next on the military, economic and diplomatic fronts. |
| 以下是接下来军事、经济和外交方面可能发生的情况。 |
| More military forces head to NATO’s eastern borders. |
| 更多军力前往北约东部边境。 |
| NATO announced on Thursday that it was sending reinforcements to its eastern flank, joining some 6,500 U.S. troops the Pentagon has already dispatched to Eastern Europe and the Baltics. |
| 北约周四宣布，它正在向其东翼派遣增援部队，另外五角大楼已经向东欧和波罗的海地区派遣了大约6500名美军。 |
| “We are deploying additional defensive land and air forces to the eastern part of the alliance, as well as additional maritime assets,” NATO said in a statement. “We have increased the readiness of our forces to respond to all contingencies.” |
| “我们正在联盟东部部署更多的防御性陆地和空军力量，以及更多的海上资产，”北约在声明中表示。“我们已经提高了部队应对所有突发事件的准备。” |
| The Pentagon is also repositioning about 1,000 troops in Europe. About 800 U.S. troops are moving to the Baltics from Italy; 20 Apache helicopters are heading to the Baltics from Germany, and 12 Apaches are going to Poland from Greece. Eight F-35 strike fighters are heading to Lithuania, Estonia and Romania from Germany, the Pentagon said. |
| 五角大楼还在重新部署欧洲的约1000名士兵。大约800名美军正从意大利向波罗的海转移；20架阿帕奇直升机正从德国调往波罗的海，12架阿帕奇直升机从希腊调往波兰。五角大楼表示，八架F-35战斗机正从德国飞往立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和罗马尼亚。 |
| In addition, U.S. Army troops, including those from the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions, are preparing to move closer to Poland’s border with Ukraine to help process people fleeing the country, an Army spokesman said on Thursday. |
| 此外，美国陆军发言人周四表示，包括第82和101空降师在内的美国陆军部队正准备向波兰与乌克兰边境靠近，以帮助处理逃离该国的人。 |
| Many of the 5,500 troops from the 18th Airborne Corps who arrived in Poland this month have been working with the State Department and Polish forces to set up three processing centers near the border to help deal with tens of thousands of people, including Americans, who are expected to flee Ukraine. |
| 本月抵达波兰的第18空降军团的5500名士兵中的许多人一直在与美国国务院和波兰部队合作，在边境附近建立三个处理中心，帮助处理包括美国人在内的数万名预计将逃离乌克兰的民众。 |
| In Jasionka, Poland, an indoor arena has been outfitted with bunk beds and supplies for up to 500 people; U.S. officials say that capacity could be quickly expanded. In Austria, Chancellor Karl Nehammer said on Wednesday that he was prepared to accept refugees. The State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development are funding relief organizations that are currently providing food, water, shelter and emergency health care to people in the region who have fled to escape the violence. |
| 在波兰的亚西翁卡，一个室内体育场已配备了双层床和各种用品，可以容纳500人；美国官员说，这一容量可以迅速扩大。奥地利总理卡尔·内哈默周三表示，他准备接受难民。美国国务院和美国国际开发署正在为救援组织提供资金，这些组织目前正在为该地区逃离暴力的人们提供食物、水、住所和紧急医疗服务。 |
| In the days to come, the C.I.A. will assess what kind of assistance it can provide to Ukraine. If a Ukrainian resistance develops in parts of the country that Russia seeks to control, the agency could secretly supply partisan forces with intelligence and, potentially, armaments. |
| 未来几天，中情局将就援助乌克兰进行评估。如果乌克兰的抵抗运动在俄罗斯试图控制的地区发展起来，该机构可以向游击队秘密提供情报，并有可能提供武器。 |
| “We need to support the resistance to the invasion and the occupation in all ways possible,” said Mick Mulroy, a former C.I.A. paramilitary officer and senior Pentagon official in the Trump administration. “Our special operations and intelligence assets with an extensive knowledge base from 20 years of fighting insurgencies should be put to immediate use.” |
| “我们需要以一切可能的方式支持对入侵和占领的抵抗，”前中情局准军事行动人员、特朗普政府的五角大楼高级官员米克·马尔罗伊说。“我们的特种作战和情报资产拥有20年打击叛乱分子的巨大知识储备，应该立即投入使用。” |
| ‘Severe’ sanctions from the U.S. and Europe. |
| 来自美国和欧洲的“严厉”制裁。 |
| President Biden on Thursday plans to announce “severe sanctions” against Russia to try to deter Moscow from carrying out further violence in Ukraine and to punish it for its actions, U.S. officials said. |
| 美国官员说，拜登总统周四计划宣布对俄罗斯实施“严厉制裁”，以阻止莫斯科在乌克兰采取进一步的暴力行动，并对其行为进行惩罚。 |
| The next set of economic sanctions is expected to be much harsher than what U.S. officials had described as a first tranche that was imposed on Monday and Tuesday. Mr. Biden is likely to order the Treasury Department to put one or more large Russian state-owned banks on the agency’s list for the harshest sanctions, known as the S.D.N. list. That would cut off the banks from commerce and exchanges with much of the world and affect many other Russian business operations. |
| 新的经济制裁措施预计将比美国官员所说的周一和周二实施的第一批制裁严厉得多。拜登可能会命令财政部将一家或多家俄罗斯大型国有银行列入该机构最严厉的制裁名单，也就是所谓的SDN名单。这将切断这些银行与世界大部分地区的商业和交流，并影响俄罗斯其他许多商业活动。 |
| The Biden administration said on Tuesday that it was imposing that kind of sanctions on two banks, VEB and PSB, but those are policy banks with no retail operations in Russia. |
| 拜登政府周二表示，将对俄罗斯对外经济银行和俄罗斯工业通讯银行这两家银行实施此类制裁，但这两家银行是在俄罗斯没有零售业务的政策性银行。 |
| Administration officials have studied how sanctions would affect each of the big banks, including Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s two largest banks. Sberbank has about a third of the assets in the country’s banking sector, and VTB has more than 15 percent. Some experts are skeptical that the administration would put those two banks on the S.D.N. list for fear of the consequences for the Russian and global economies. For now, U.S. officials are not ready to cut off all Russian banks from Swift, the important Belgian money transfer system used by more than 11,000 financial institutions worldwide. |
| 政府官员对制裁将如何影响俄罗斯所有大银行进行了研究，包括该国最大的两家银行俄罗斯储蓄银行和俄罗斯外贸银行。俄罗斯储蓄银行拥有该国银行业约三分之一的资产，俄罗斯外贸银行拥有超过15%的资产。一些专家对政府是否会将这两家银行列入SDN名单持怀疑态度，因为政府可能对此举将给俄罗斯和全球经济造成的影响感到担心。目前，美国官员还没有准备好切断所有俄罗斯银行与Swift的联系。Swift是比利时重要的汇款系统，被全球1.1万多家金融机构使用。 |
| The Treasury Department has other sanctions lists that would impose costs while inflicting less widespread suffering. For example, it could put a bank on a list that prevents it from doing any transactions involving dollars. Many international commercial transactions are done in U.S. dollars, the currency that underpins the global economy. |
| 财政部还列出了其他制裁名单，这些名单在给俄罗斯造成损失的同时带来的痛苦相对会较小。例如，它可以将一家俄罗斯银行列入禁止其进行任何涉美元交易的名单。许多国际商业交易都是用美元这一支撑全球经济的货币进行的。 |
| The Treasury Department is also expected to put more Russian officials, businesspeople and companies on the sanctions lists. |
| 预计美国财政部还将把更多俄罗斯官员、商人和公司列入制裁名单。 |
| By Thursday afternoon in Russia, the nation’s stock market had fallen nearly 40 percent. |
| 截至周四下午，俄罗斯股市下跌了近40%。 |
| The Commerce Department has been making plans to restrict the export of certain American technologies to Russia, a tactic that the Trump administration used to hobble Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company. The controls would damage the supply chain for some Russian sectors. U.S. officials said their targets included the defense industry and the oil and gas industry. |
| 商务部一直在制定计划，限制向俄罗斯出口某些美国技术，特朗普政府曾用这种策略打压中国的电信企业华为。这些管制措施将损害俄罗斯一些行业的供应链。美国官员说，他们的目标包括国防工业以及石油和天然气行业。 |
| European officials are expected to announce sanctions similar to many of the ones planned by the United States, as they did this week. However, they have been more wary of imposing the harshest sanctions because of the continent’s robust trade with Russia. |
| 预计欧洲官员将宣布与美国在本周计划的许多制裁类似的举措。但是，由于欧洲与俄罗斯的贸易往来更为频繁，他们对实施最严厉的制裁会持更加谨慎的态度。 |
| Although Mr. Biden has said he will contemplate any possible sanctions, U.S. officials for now do not plan big disruptions to Russia’s energy exports, which are the pillar of the country’s economy. Europe relies on the products, and surging oil prices worldwide would cause greater inflation and more problems for politicians. However, Germany announces this week that it would not certify Nord Stream 2, a new natural gas pipeline that connects Russia and Western Europe. On Wednesday Mr. Biden announced sanctions on a subsidiary of Gazprom, the large Russian energy company, which built the pipeline and had planned to operate it. |
| 虽然拜登表示他将考虑任何可能的制裁，但美国官员目前还不打算对作为俄罗斯经济支柱的能源出口作出重大破坏。欧洲依赖这些产品，并且全球油价飙升会导致更严重的通胀以及给政客带来更多问题。然而，德国本周宣布不会对连接俄罗斯和西欧的新天然气管道“北溪2号”进行认证。周三，拜登宣布对俄罗斯大型能源公司俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的一家子公司实施制裁，这条管道由该公司建造和计划运营。 |
| “We have been frank, we have been candid with the American people that our measures — the measures we have and are prepared to impose on the Russian Federation — certainly won’t be cost-free for the Russian Federation,” Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, said on Wednesday. “But they won’t be entirely cost-free for the rest of the world as well.” |
| “我们对美国人民开诚布公，我们的措施——我们对俄罗斯联邦已经实施以及准备实施的措施——对俄罗斯联邦来说肯定不会是没有代价的，”美国国务院发言人内德·普赖斯周三表示。“但对于世界其他地区来说，它们也不会完全没有代价。” |
| Even so, new economic burdens come at a difficult moment for Mr. Biden, who is grappling with voter frustration over inflation less than nine months before the midterm elections. |
| 即便如此，对于拜登来说，新的经济负担降临在一个艰难的时刻，距离中期选举还有不到九个月的时间，他正在努力应对选民对通胀的不满。 |
| Republicans are expected to seize on additional domestic economic hardships to criticize Mr. Biden and Democrats. A strong faction of the Republican Party — led by President Donald J. Trump that includes the Fox News host Tucker Carlson — has been praising Russia, downplaying the importance of defending Ukraine and criticizing Mr. Biden for many policies. Some analysts say Mr. Putin sees such political division as a strategic advantage. |
| 预计共和党人将利用更多的国内经济困难来批评拜登和民主党人。共和党的一个强大派系——由特朗普总统领导，包括福克斯新闻主持人塔克·卡尔森——一直在赞扬俄罗斯，淡化保卫乌克兰的重要性，并批评拜登的许多政策。一些分析人士说，普京将这种政治分歧视为一种战略优势。 |
| Diplomacy in turmoil with Russia’s ‘path of aggression.’ |
| 外交因俄罗斯走上“侵略之路”而陷入混乱。 |
| The State Department has moved its personnel to Poland from Ukraine, as diplomats continue to help the government in Kyiv and offer consular assistance to American citizens who want to leave Ukraine. Mr. Price estimated on Wednesday that far fewer Americans were in Ukraine than the 6,600 who were believed to be in the country in the fall. |
| 国务院已将在乌克兰的员工转移到波兰，外交官继续帮助基辅的乌克兰政府，并为想要离开乌克兰的美国公民提供领事协助。据信去年秋季有6600名美国人在乌克兰，普莱斯周三估计现在的人数已大大降低。 |
| The larger question for the rest of the world is whether Mr. Putin’s invasion has irrevocably broken international systems in which Russia has been seen as a legitimate contributor. |
| 对世界其他国家来说，更大的问题是普京的入侵是否已经不可逆转地破坏了国际体系，在这一体系中，俄罗斯被视为合法促进者。 |
| “Last night’s events are a turning point in the history of Europe and of our country,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said in an address on Thursday morning. “They will have lasting, profound consequences for our lives.” |
| “昨晚的事件是欧洲历史和我国历史的转折点，”法国总统马克龙在周四上午的讲话中说。“它们将对我们的生活产生持久而深远的影响。” |
| Diplomats representing the Group of 7 of the world’s largest industrial nations, NATO, the U.N. Security Council and the European Council were set to meet later on Thursday to plot out the next steps. At the Security Council, the United States urged others to join a resolution condemning Russia’s aggressions and defending Ukraine’s sovereignty. The effort, which will be put to a vote on Friday, also calls for humanitarian aid to Ukrainian refugees and access for relief workers. |
| 代表世界上最大的七个工业国、北约、联合国安理会和欧洲理事会的外交官定于周四晚些时候举行会议，制定下一步行动。在安理会，美国敦促其他国家加入一项谴责俄罗斯侵略和捍卫乌克兰主权的决议。这项工作将于周五进行投票，决议还呼吁向乌克兰难民提供人道主义援助，并允许救援人员进入。 |
| But Russia has a permanent veto on the council, meaning it could derail any resolution the body proposes to rein in Mr. Putin. |
| 但俄罗斯在安理会拥有常任理事国的否决权，意味着它可以破坏安理会提出的任何牵制普京的决议。 |
| Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken may travel to Europe next week to meet allies and ensure that a unified front against Russia remains. He canceled a meeting with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, that had been scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, describing it as unproductive as Russian troops took up battle formations. |
| 国务卿安东尼·布林肯可能会在下周前往欧洲与盟国会面，并确保维持对俄罗斯的统一战线。他取消了原定于周四在日内瓦与俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫的会面，称由于俄罗斯军队已经出动，碰面徒劳无益。 |
| On Wednesday night, even as he predicted that an assault was imminent, Mr. Blinken issued an 11th-hour appeal for Mr. Putin to take a diplomatic path from conflict. |
| 周三晚上，尽管布林肯预测攻击迫在眉睫，但他在最后一刻发出呼吁，要求普京选择外交途径解决冲突。 |
| “If Russia demonstrates that it’s actually serious about that, which unfortunately it’s doing just the opposite, we’ll certainly pursue that,” Mr. Blinken said on ABC News. “But we’ve said all along that we’re prepared for this either way. We’re prepared to try to avert this diplomatically, through dialogue. We’re also prepared if Russia decides to choose the path of aggression.” |
| “如果俄罗斯证明它真的想要解决冲突——不幸的是它所做的事情正相反——我们肯定会朝这个方向努力，”布林肯在美国广播公司新闻上说。“但我们一直都在说，无论哪种方式，我们都为此做好了准备。我们准备尝试通过对话以外交方式避免这种情况。如果俄罗斯决定选择侵略的道路，我们也做好了准备。” |
| It was not immediately clear whether that path had been closed with the invasion. |
| 目前尚不清楚外交途径是否因入侵而关闭。 |
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