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| SEOUL — North Korea began this year with a record-breaking spate of missile launches, but stopped short of a truly provocative step: ending its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. |
| 首尔——自今年开始以来，朝鲜已发射了数量创下纪录的一系列导弹，但没有迈出真正具有挑衅性的一步，即结束其对核武器和洲际弹道导弹试验主动采取的暂停。 |
| Some experts say that next move could be just a matter of time. |
| 一些专家表示，迈出这个下一步可能只是时间问题。 |
| Kim Jong-un, the country’s leader, has already threatened to end the moratorium, saying at a party meeting in January that his country would consider “restarting all temporarily suspended activities” and switching to “more powerful physical means” to deter the United States. He has spent several months unveiling new weapon technology. And, according to new research, his military has been building a base strategically located for future ICBM launches. |
| 朝鲜领导人金正恩已威胁要结束这一暂停，他在劳动党今年1月的一次会议上说，朝鲜将考虑“重启暂停过的一切活动”，转向“切实地巩固物质力量”来威慑美国。金正恩已花了几个月的时间揭幕新的武器技术。而且有新的研究称，朝鲜军队一直在修建一个地理位置上具有战略意义的基地，为未来的洲际弹道导弹发射做准备。 |
| In a report published Monday, a team of analysts at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said they had located an underground, regiment-size military base used for housing North Korean ICBMs just 15 miles from the border with China. |
| 在一份周一发表的报告中，华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的一组分析人员说，他们在距离中朝边境只有25公里的地方发现了一个用于安置朝鲜洲际弹道导弹、可容纳一个团的地下军事基地。 |
| The location, the analysts say, was chosen to deter pre-emptive strikes from the United States against North Korea’s most important weapons as the country to continues to expand and modernize its arsenal. |
| 分析人士称，选择这个位置是为了在朝鲜继续扩大其武器库、将之现代化的时候阻止美国对朝鲜最重要的武器进行先发制人的打击。 |
| “As best as can be determined from satellite imagery, informed sources, and what little data is available, the base is ready to receive an operational ICBM unit,” said the report. |
| “用卫星图像、知情信源和目前可找到的少量数据做出的最佳判断是，该基地已为接纳一支可投入行动的洲际弹道导弹部队做好准备，”该报告写道。 |
| In January alone, North Korea launched 11 missiles, including its Hwasong-12 intermediate ballistic missile, prompting the United States to call for additional sanctions at the United Nations. |
| 仅在今年1月这一个月里，朝鲜就发射了包括“火星-12”型中程弹道导弹在内的11枚导弹，引发了美国呼吁联合国对朝鲜采取进一步的制裁措施。 |
| North Korea is not expected to do any new missile tests in February, possibly out of deference to its ally China, which is hosting the Winter Olympics in Beijing this month. But observers fear the provocations will intensify once the Games are over and North Korea seeks to prod the Biden administration to resume stalled negotiations. |
| 预计朝鲜可能会出于对其盟友中国的尊重，不在2月份进行任何新的导弹试验，中国本月正在北京举办冬季奥运会。但观察人士担心，挑衅行为将在冬奥会结束后加剧，因为朝鲜试图迫使拜登政府恢复陷入僵局的谈判。 |
| “North Korea will likely escalate pressure on the United States by taking a series of steps toward an ICBM test,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded research institute in Seoul. |
| “朝鲜很可能会通过朝着进行洲际弹道导弹试验的方向采取一系列步骤，以加大对美国的压力，”政府资助的研究机构、位于首尔的统一研究院前院长全星勋说。 |
| North Korea conducted its last ICBM test in November 2017, after which it claimed that its nuclear-tipped ICBM could strike any part of the continental United States. Should Mr. Kim launch an ICBM this year, it would most likely be from vehicles housed in a base such as Hoejung-ni, the facility identified in the report published on Monday. |
| 朝鲜最后一次进行洲际弹道导弹试验是在2017年11月，之后它声称，装有核弹头的洲际弹道导弹可以打击美国大陆的任何地方。如果金正恩今年发射一枚洲际弹道导弹的话，很可能会是从某个基地的车辆上发射，比如周一发表的报告中提到的桧中里基地。 |
| Though it is unclear if Hoejung-ni is fully operational, most analysts believe a North Korean ICBM would be launched from a similarly concealed military installation. |
| 虽然还不清楚桧中里基地是否已全面投入使用，但大多数分析人士认为，朝鲜将从一个类似的隐蔽军事设施发射洲际弹道导弹。 |
| Hoejung-ni is the second possible ICBM base in North Korea that CSIS analysts have identified. Yusang-ni, a base 39 miles northeast of Pyongyang, the capital, was identified in 2019. |
| 桧中里基地是战略与国际研究中心分析人员在朝鲜找到的第二个可能的洲际弹道导弹基地。位于首都平壤东北60多公里的Yusang里基地已在2019年被发现。 |
| North Korea has long hidden its vital military assets in caves, underground bunkers and tunnels. But the country has spent recent years making it even harder for the United States and its allies to find and target its most dangerous weapons — by keeping them not only deep underground but also near the border with China. |
| 朝鲜长期以来一直将重要的军事资产藏在山洞、地下掩体和隧道里。但最近几年，朝鲜一直在加大美国及其盟友寻找和瞄准该国最危险武器的难度，不仅将它们藏到更深的地下，也包括把基地建在离中国边界不远的地方。 |
| “The position near the Chinese border acts as a potential deterrent to a pre-emptive strike that might impinge on Chinese security equities,” said Victor Cha, a senior vice president and North Korea expert at the CSIS. |
| “靠近中国边境的位置，对防止先发制人的打击具有潜在的威慑作用，因为这种打击可能会侵犯中国有安全价值的事物，”战略与国际研究中心高级副总裁、朝鲜问题专家车维德(Victor Cha)说。 |
| The location also allows Pyongyang to keep its most prized weapons far from South Korea’s stealth jets and conventional missiles, the range and destructive power of which have increased in recent years to target the underground facilities. |
| 这种位置也可以让朝鲜将自己最宝贵的武器放在远离韩国隐形战机和常规导弹的地方，这些韩国武器针对朝鲜地下设施的射程和破坏力近年来已有所提高。 |
| Building activities at Hoejung-ni and the nearby Yeongjeo-dong facility were first reported in 2018. But the new report claims to be the first to confirm Hoejung-ni as an ICBM base. The researchers also used new satellite imagery to provide updated details on entrances to the underground facilities, support buildings and hardened drive-through concrete shelters where missiles are armed and fueled. |
| 桧中里和附近岭底洞设施的建设活动最早见诸报道是在2018年。但本周的新报告称其首次证实桧中里是一个洲际弹道导弹基地。这些研究人员还使用新的卫星图像，为地下设施的入口、配套建筑，以及运载车可通行的强化混凝土掩体提供了最新细节，这些掩体是给导弹装弹头和燃料的地方。 |
| “North Korea doesn’t have a strong air force or air defense system, so the best way for the country to protect its missiles is to conceal them in underground facilities,” said Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense Security Forum in Seoul. “When it launches missiles, its launcher vehicles will spread out from these bases to their launching positions.” |
| “朝鲜没有强大的空军或防空系统，因此该国保护其导弹的最佳方式是将它们藏在地下设施中，”首尔的韩国国防安全论坛高级分析师申中禹说。“发射导弹时，朝鲜的发射车辆将从这些基地开出来，在它们的发射位置上展开。” |
| North Korea began taking its military assets deep underground in 1962 after it suffered devastating losses from superior American air power during the 1950-53 Korean War. U.S. and South Korean officials estimate there are now 6,000 to 8,000 underground facilities in North Korea, enhancing the country’s ability to endure surprise attacks. |
| 在1950年至1953年的朝鲜战争中，朝鲜受到了美国强大空中力量的毁灭性打击，1962年，朝鲜开始将其军事资产转入地下。据美国和韩国官员估计，朝鲜目前有6000到8000个地下设施，增强了该国抵御突然袭击的能力。 |
| Some have been dug under the northern slopes of the rugged mountains facing China, making it harder for American and South Korean warplanes to target their entrances without provoking Beijing. During the Korean War, when the American-led United Nations forces pushed their way up the Korean Peninsula toward China, Mao Zedong sent troops streaming across the border to turn the tide of the conflict. |
| 其中一些地下设施建在崎岖山脉面对中国的北坡下，这使美国和韩国的战机很难在不激怒北京的情况下打击这些基地的入口。在朝鲜战争期间，美国领导的联合国部队将朝鲜军队逼到朝鲜半岛与中国接壤的地带后，毛泽东派军队越过边境，扭转了战争局面。 |
| South Korea said the North’s Strategic Force command has added four regiments since 2018, for a total of 13. All four — including one based in Hoejung-ni — were reported to be located near the border with China. |
| 韩国表示，自2018年以来，朝鲜战略部队司令部已增加了4个团，达到了13个团。新增加的4个团据报道都部署在中朝边境附近，包括驻扎在桧中里基地的团。 |
| The location of Pyongyang’s nuclear missiles is among the most tightly guarded secrets within the North Korean military. In 2017, the Pentagon told Congress that the only way to “locate and destroy — with complete certainty — all components of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs” would be through a ground invasion. |
| 朝鲜军方最严格保守的秘密之一是朝鲜核导弹的位置。2017年，五角大楼曾告诉美国国会，“完全确定地找到并摧毁朝鲜核武器项目所有部分”的唯一方法是地面入侵。 |
| Finding the underground facilities has been a key challenge for American and South Korean military planners for decades, because they are hard to spot by satellite. Some are built as decoys. Others may be hidden under ordinary houses. |
| 几十年来，找到这些地下设施一直是美国和韩国军事规划者面临的一个关键挑战，因为它们很难被卫星发现。有些设施是假的。还有些设施可能藏在普通的房子下面。 |
| “An underground facility in North Korea is so tightly guarded that soldiers who work there can have access to their assigned area only, so it’s extremely hard to get a blueprint of the place,” Maj. Park Sung-man, an officer at the South Korean Army’s Special Warfare Command, said in a paper published in 2015. |
| “朝鲜的地下设施戒备如此森严，以至于在那里工作的士兵只能进入他们被指定去的地方，所以很难得到整个设施的蓝图，”韩国军队特种作战司令部军官朴成文（音）少校在2015年发表的一篇论文中写道。 |
| What little data that is available on North Korea’s weapons development can come from unexpected sources. |
| 有关朝鲜武器发展的少量数据可能来自意想不到的地方。 |
| In April 2019, a pro-North Korean website boasted that nuclear missiles launched from train cars rolling out of tunnels — like in the old Soviet Union — would be another potent addition to the North’s growing arsenal. In a first, the country launched two missiles from a train car last September and another pair last month. |
| 2019年4月，一家亲朝鲜的网站吹嘘说，从隧道中开出的火车上发射核导弹（像以前的苏联那样）为朝鲜不断增长的武器库增添了又一个强有力的部分。朝鲜在去年9月首次从一辆火车上发射了两枚导弹，上个月又发射了两枚。 |
| North Korea is crisscrossed with rail lines going through numerous tunnels that provide cover from spy satellites. While most of the country’s rail lines are electric, its military railways run diesel locomotives. |
| 朝鲜的铁路纵横交错，数不清的隧道为火车不被间谍卫星发现提供了掩护。虽然朝鲜的铁路大部分已电气化，但其军用列车使用的是柴油机车。 |
| The country recently switched from electricity to diesel engines to power the Haesan-Manpo railway, a 156-mile rail line that runs near the border with China, according to the pro-North Korean website. The Haesan-Manpo line goes straight through Hoejung-ni. |
| 据该亲朝鲜网站，朝鲜最近已将位于中朝边境附近的250公里长的海山—满浦铁路的电力机车换成了柴油机车。海山—满浦线直接经过桧中里。 |
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