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| SEOUL — North Korea began the new year by convening a meeting for the ruling Workers’ Party during which very little was said about the United States. That ominous silence didn’t last long. | 首尔——新年伊始，朝鲜执政的劳动党召开会议，会上几乎没提美国。但这种不详的沉默没有持续多久。 |
| Kim Jong-un, the country’s ruler, has launched six ballistic missiles in four weapons tests since Jan. 5, almost as many missiles in one month as North Korea launched in all of last year. On Tuesday, the South Korean military confirmed that the North had fired two cruise missiles in its fifth test of 2022. | 自1月5日以来，金正恩统治下的朝鲜已在四次武器试验中发射了六枚弹道导弹，朝鲜今年一个月内发射的导弹数量与去年全年数量几乎相当。周二，韩国军方证实，朝鲜在2022年的第五次试验中发射了两枚巡航导弹。 |
| The message was clear: The North Korean leader feels he is being ignored and wants to push the Biden administration to re-engage and pay attention to his economically ailing nation. | 试射传递的信息很明确：朝鲜领导人觉得自己被忽视了，他想迫使拜登政府重新与之接触，关注这个经济状况不佳的国家。 |
| Individually, the tests may not amount to much — they involved missiles that have already been tested or weapons that are still under development. But taken together, they signal that Mr. Kim plans to use 2022 to jolt the Biden administration out of its diplomatic slumber. | 每次试射单独来看可能意义不大，它们涉及的是已试验过的导弹或仍在研发中的武器。但这些行动综合起来表明金正恩打算在2022年将拜登政府从其外交沉睡中震醒。 |
| Mr. Kim needs Washington to engage with him on economic concessions so that he can fix his country’s devastated economy. Over the years, he has learned that the best way to grab the attention of an American president is with weapons. And that the best time to do it is when the world can least afford the instability. | 金正恩需要华盛顿与他就经济让步问题进行接触，以便他能够恢复朝鲜遭受重创的经济。多年以来，他已经认识到，吸引美国总统注意力的最佳方式是武器。而最好的时机是世界最不想看到不稳定的时候。 |
| According to that playbook, 2022 looks like a promising year. | 按照这个战术手册，2022年看来是一个颇有希望的年份。 |
| China is busy preparing for the Beijing Olympics next month. South Korea elects a new president in March. Russia has hinted at a potential invasion of Ukraine, keeping the Biden administration on tenterhooks. | 中国正忙着准备下个月的北京冬季奥运会。韩国将在今年3月选出新总统。俄罗斯已暗示可能入侵乌克兰，让拜登政府如坐针毡。 |
| During a Politburo meeting last Wednesday, Mr. Kim suggested that his government might once again begin testing long-range missiles and nuclear devices after suspending such tests before his 2018 summit meeting with President Donald J. Trump. | 在上周三的一次政治局会议上，金正恩暗示，他的政府可能会重新开始试验远程导弹和核装置，他曾在2018年与前总统特朗普举行峰会之前暂停了这些试验。 |
| “2022 calls for continued saber-rattling, punctuated by some major missile tests,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a North Korea expert at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. “Kim’s goal is to routinize short-range ballistic missile flights as a fact of life without any repercussions, after which he will move on to bigger provocations by resuming intermediate- and long-range missile tests punctuated by a nuclear test, as he did in 2017.” | “2022年需要继续进行武力炫耀，不时穿插几次大型导弹试验，”塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院的朝鲜问题专家李成允说。“金正恩的目标是让发射短程弹道导弹成为不产生任何后果的日常事实，他将在那之后进行更大的挑衅，恢复中程和远程导弹试验，还会不时进行核试验，就像他在2017年做的那样。” |
| That year, North Korea tested what it called a hydrogen bomb and also launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles. It was also the year Mr. Trump took office after a vicious campaign in the United States. South Korea had just impeached its president. | 朝鲜曾在2017年试射了一枚其称之为氢弹的武器，还发射了三枚洲际弹道导弹。特朗普也在那年经过一次激烈的竞选后就任美国总统。韩国那时则刚刚弹劾了对本国总统进行弹劾。 |
| Wednesday was the second time Mr. Kim threatened to lift the moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests. After his diplomacy with Mr. Trump ended without an agreement in 2019, he said he no longer felt bound by the commitment. But he did not follow through with any such tests, and his country was soon plunged into the chaos of the coronavirus pandemic. | 上周三，金正恩已第二次威胁要取消暂停测试远程导弹和核试验的规定。2019年，在与特朗普进行的外交活动没有达成协议的情况下结束后，金正恩曾表示，他不再觉得受到暂停承诺的约束。但他没有将威胁付诸为实际的试射，不久后，朝鲜陷入了新冠病毒疫情的混乱。 |
| This year also marks the beginning of Mr. Kim’s second decade in power, and a chance for him to reassert his authority. | 今年也是金正恩掌权的第二个十年的开始，让他有机会重申自己的权威。 |
| Ever since taking over, he has focused on building the country’s arsenal to validate his family’s dynastic rule, calling his nuclear weapons a “treasured sword” that protects North Korea against foreign invasion. | 自上台以来，金正恩一直把注意力放在建设朝鲜的核武库上，将其作为对金氏家族王朝统治的认可，他把朝鲜的核武器称为保护国家不受外国侵犯的“宝剑”。 |
| During the meeting on Wednesday, he urged North Koreans to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the birth of his father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, in February, as well as the 110th birthday of his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, in April. | 在上周三的会上，金正恩就今年2月起其父亲、前任朝鲜领导人金正日的80周年诞辰纪念活动，以及今年4月其祖父金日成诞辰110周年纪念活动向朝鲜人民做了动员部署。 |
| Under his father and grandfather, North Korea had seemed open to shelving its nuclear ambitions. But those hopes have dissipated under Mr. Kim, who has rapidly expanded the country’s nuclear program, even as the United Nations piled on sanctions. | 在其父亲和祖父的统治下，朝鲜曾似乎对搁置本国的核野心持开放态度。但这些希望在金正恩的领导下已经破灭，尽管联合国已多次对朝鲜实施制裁，但金正恩仍在迅速扩大朝鲜的核计划。 |
| Though Mr. Kim has often been depicted abroad as a leader potentially capable of opening up his isolated country for the sake of economic development, his nuclear weapons are, as North Korea has put it, “not a bargaining chip.” | 虽然金正恩在海外往往被描绘成一个有可能为经济发展而开放这个孤立国家的领导人。正如朝鲜政府所说，该国的核武器“不是谈判筹码”。 |
| Rather, the country sees them as tools to bring Washington to the negotiating table. And by that logic, the more powerful the arsenal, the more leverage Mr. Kim has. | 朝鲜反而把核武器视为将华盛顿拉到谈判桌前的工具。按照这个逻辑，朝鲜的核武库越强大，金正恩的影响力就越大。 |
| Even when he vowed to focus on economic development in 2013, Mr. Kim stuck to his “parallel” goal of strengthening his nuclear force. The country has conducted more than 130 missile tests under him, compared with a total of 16 tests under his father and 15 under his grandfather. The last four of the North’s six nuclear tests all took place under his watch. | 尽管金正恩曾在2013年发誓将重点放在发展经济上，但他仍坚持加强核力量的“平行”目标。在金正恩的领导下，朝鲜已进行了130多次导弹试验，而在其父和祖父的领导下，朝鲜只分别进行过16次和15次导弹试验。朝鲜六次核试验中最近的四次都是在金正恩的领导下进行的。 |
| “By advancing its nuclear capabilities and weapons systems, North Korea is showing the United States and South Korea that the more time passes, the bigger the price will become that they have to pay,” Choi Yong-hwan, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul, wrote in a recent policy paper. | “通过推进自己的核能力和武器系统，朝鲜正在向美韩展示，时间拖得越久，两国必须付出的代价就越大，”首尔的国家安全战略研究所分析师崔龙桓（音）在最近的一篇政策论文中写道。 |
| Yet try as it may to flex its power, North Korea appears to be low on the Biden administration’s list of international priorities. | 然而，尽管朝鲜试图展示自己的实力，但该国在拜登政府的国际优先事项单上的排名似乎不高。 |
| Washington has taken no steps to entice Mr. Kim, except to propose talks “without preconditions,” a lukewarm entreaty that North Korea has rebuffed. | 华盛顿除了提出举行“没有先决条件”的谈判外，一直没有采取任何吸引金正恩的行动。美国不温不火的提议已遭到朝鲜的拒绝。 |
| But it has not resumed tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Instead, North Korea has focused on testing missiles that can carry what it calls “smaller, lighter and tactical” nuclear weapons. These kinds of weapons do not pose a direct threat to the United States, but they could boost Mr. Kim’s leverage with Washington by placing American allies such as South Korea and Japan under nuclear threat. | 但朝鲜还没有恢复试射洲际弹道导弹，而是一直将重点放在能携带其所谓“更小、更轻的战术型”核武器的导弹。这类武器并不对美国构成直接威胁，但可以通过将韩国和日本等美国盟友置于核威胁之下，来增强金正恩对华盛顿的影响力。 |
| In North Korea’s first two tests this month, the country launched short-range ballistic missiles with what it called “hypersonic gliding vehicles,” detachable warheads that make the weapons harder to intercept because they not only fly extremely fast but also change course during flight. | 在本月的前两次试验中，朝鲜发射了运载其称之为“高超音速滑翔飞行器”的短程弹道导弹，这种飞行器有可分离的弹头，这会使拦截武器变得更难，因为它们不仅飞行速度极快，而且可在飞行过程中改变方向。 |
| In a test on Jan. 13, North Korea launched the KN-23, one of three new solid-fuel ballistic missiles the North has been testing since 2019. | 在1月13日的试射中，朝鲜发射了KN-23近程导弹，这是朝鲜自2019年以来一直在试验的三种新型固体燃料弹道导弹之一。 |
| Solid-fuel missiles are easier to transport and launch. The KN-23 can perform low-altitude maneuvers, making them harder to intercept. North Korea has also begun launching KN-23 variants from a submarine, as it did in October, and from trains, as it did in September and again this month. | 固体燃料导弹更容易运输和发射。KN-23可执行低空行动，使其更难拦截。朝鲜还开始从潜艇上试射KN-23的改进型，比如去年10月；以及从火车上试射，比如去年9月和本月。 |
| In its most recent test, North Korea fired a pair of solid-fuel missiles from a mobile launcher vehicle. When the North first launched such a pair in 2019, there was a 16-minute interval between the two missiles fired. | 在最近的一次试射中，朝鲜从一辆移动发射车上发射了两枚固体燃料导弹。朝鲜在2019年首次发射一对这类导弹时，两次发射的间隔时间为16分钟。 |
| That gap was reduced to four minutes in the recent test, indicating that the military has improved its ability to fire multiple missiles and hide them from counterattacks by the United States and South Korea. | 在最近的试射中，间隔时间已缩短到四分钟，表明朝鲜军方已提高了连续发射多枚导弹的能力，以及在美国和韩国反击时隐藏导弹的能力。 |
| “North Korea hopes that if it continues to demonstrate its nuclear capabilities but confines them to the Korean Peninsula, it will not aggravate public opinion in the United States and will strengthen voices there calling for a compromise,” Cha Du-hyeogn, a principal fellow at the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies, wrote in a recent paper. | “朝鲜的希望是，如果继续展示自己的核能力，但将这种展示限制在朝鲜半岛上，就不会激怒美国的舆论，反而会加强美国国内呼吁其自身妥协的声音，”首尔的峨山政策研究院首席研究员车杜邢（音）在最近的一篇论文中写道。 |
| For that strategy to work, Mr. Kim will need continued help from China in resisting any new international sanctions. North Korea’s economic challenges were deepened two years ago when it shut its border with China to fight the pandemic. This month, Beijing confirmed that “through friendly consultations,” China and North Korea reopened their border for freight trains. | 要让这个战略奏效的话，金正恩需要在抵制任何新的国际制裁上继续得到中国的帮助。两年前，为了应对新冠病毒疫情，朝鲜关闭了与中国的边境，这加深了朝鲜面临的经济挑战。北京已在本月证实，“经过双方友好协商”，中国和朝鲜已对货运列车重新开放了边境。 |
| “This timing suggests Beijing is more than complicit with Pyongyang’s provocations,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “China is supporting North Korea economically and coordinating with it militarily.” | “这个时机表明，北京对朝鲜的挑衅远不只是含蓄地支持，”首尔梨花女子大学国际研究教授利夫—埃里克·伊斯说。“中国正在经济上支持朝鲜，并在配合朝鲜军方。” |
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