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| Slowdowns in the world’s two biggest economies — the United States and China — are likely to be larger than expected this year, dragging down output on every continent and reducing global growth, a new report warned on Tuesday. | 周二发布的一份新报告警告，作为全球最大的两个经济体，美国和中国今年的经济放缓可能超出预期，这将导致世界各国的产出下滑、增长减速。 |
| Higher inflation, supply chain choke points, and Covid-related shutdowns and worker shortages continue to afflict rich and poor nations, the International Monetary Fund wrote in its latest World Economic Report. | 国际货币基金组织(IMF)在最新发布的《世界经济展望》中写道，通胀上升、供应链瓶颈、与新冠相关的停摆和用工短缺将继续困扰各国，不论贫富。 |
| “The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” the fund said in reducing its estimated global growth rate to 4.4 percent from the 4.9 percent it projected just three months ago. | “2022年初，全球经济状况弱于预期，”IMF表示，并将全球经济增速从三个月前预计的4.9%下调至4.4%。 |
| The fund said the Federal Reserve Bank’s tighter monetary policy and the failure of the Biden administration’s sweeping $2.2 trillion infrastructure and social policy package were among the reasons it reduced the U.S. growth forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 4 percent. | IMF认为，美国联邦储蓄银行的紧缩政策和拜登政府未能通过2.2万亿美元的一揽子基础设施和社会政策，是将美国增速预测下调1.2个百分点至4%的原因之一。 |
| In China, which has powered much of the world’s growth in recent years, the I.M.F. pointed to the collapse of the real estate sector and the zero-Covid policy that has restricted travel, shut businesses and reduced consumption. The report reduced the country’s growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 percent. | 对于近年来推动全球很大一部分增长的中国，IMF指出了房地产行业收缩和新冠“清零”政策的影响，该政策导致人们出行受限、企业关停、消费减少。该报告将中国的增速预测下调了0.8个百分点至4.8%。 |
| The fund emphasized that the forecast was subject to a high level of uncertainty — about the course of Covid, the prospects of climate-related natural disasters, supply chain disruptions and rising political tensions, particularly around Ukraine. With the pandemic entering its third year, a note of pessimism underlay the report. “Risks overall are to the downside,” Gita Gopinath, the first managing deputy director, said. | IMF强调，该预测存在高度不确定性，其影响因素包括新冠疫情的进程、可能发生的与气候相关的自然灾害、供应链混乱和不断加剧的政治紧张局势，尤其是乌克兰局势。随着疫情进入第三个年头，这份报告流露出了悲观的基调。“总体仍然存在下行风险，”IMF的第一副总裁吉塔·戈皮纳特表示。 |
| Global economic losses related to the pandemic will total $13.8 trillion by the end of 2024, Ms. Gopinath estimated. | 戈皮纳特估计，到2024年底，与疫情相关的全球经济损失总额将达到13.8万亿美元。 |
| The dimmed economic prospects come at a time when governments have less room to maneuver in how they spend their money. Debt levels have soared over the past two years as countries struggled with the health crisis caused by the pandemic and funneled aid to their citizens. Public spending is unlikely to reach the same levels in the future. | 经济前景黯淡之际，各国政府在财政支出上的回旋余地也随之缩减。过去两年，由于各国都在应对疫情造成的卫生危机，向本国民众提供援助，因而债务水平出现飙升。公共支出在未来不太可能达到同样的水平。 |
| The troubling rise in inflation that has doubled heating costs in much of Europe and made food less affordable in places like sub-Saharan Africa and Brazil has also lasted longer than anticipated. | 令人不安的通货膨胀上升导致欧洲大部分地区的取暖费用翻了一番，并使撒哈拉以南非洲和巴西等地的食品价格上涨，这种情况的持续时间也超出了预期。 |
| The pandemic has changed the way people in many parts of the world spend their money, shifting funds that might have been used for dining, travel and entertainment to goods they can play with, sit on or consume at home. That increased demand, combined with persistent difficulties in moving goods from one city or continent to another, skyrocketing energy prices and labor shortages, has driven up costs. | 疫情改变了世界许多地方人们的消费方式，将原本可能用于餐饮、旅游和娱乐的资金转移到了他们可以在家中玩乐、休憩或是消费的商品上。这种需求的增长，再加上从一个城市或大洲运输货物到另一城市或大洲的持续困难，以及能源价格飞涨和劳动力短缺，都将成本推高。 |
| Some of those pressures are expected to wane toward the end of the year — but not everywhere. “In the United States the story is different,” the fund noted. The exit of so many people from their jobs has created more persistent labor shortages and driven up wages much more than in other countries. Americans’ high level of spending has also created some of the worst supply chain disruptions. | 一些压力预计将在年底减轻——但并非所有地方都能如此。“美国的情况有所不同，”IMF指出。太多人离职造成了更持久的劳动力短缺，并将工资推至远超其他国家的水平。美国人的高消费也导致了一些最为严重的供应链混乱。 |
| The U.S. Federal Reserve has made clear that its primary focus has shifted from stimulating the economy during the pandemic to fighting inflation. The bank, which is set to release its next policy statement on Wednesday, is raising interest rates and reeling in its purchases of bonds that ensured money would continue to flow through the economy. Other central banks, including those in Mexico and Brazil, are taking similar actions. | 美联储已明确表示，其工作重点已从疫情期间的刺激经济转向了抑制通胀。定于周三发布下一份政策声明的美联储正在提高利率，并缩减债券持有规模，以确保资金继续在经济中流动。包括墨西哥和巴西在内，其他国家的央行也在采取类似措施。 |
| The strategy is to discourage people from borrowing money to buy a car or invest in a business and ratchet back demand for products that are in short supply. Creeping interest rates, though, risk not only slowing economic growth but burdening poorer nations with even bigger debts far into the future. | 该策略是为了阻止人们贷款买车或投资企业，并减少对供应短缺产品的需求。然而，不断攀升的利率不但带来了增长放缓的风险，还会让贫穷国家在未来很长一段时间内背负更多债务。 |
| “If interest rates rise more sharply, that then puts extra strain on vulnerable developing countries which have most of their debt in dollars,” said Creon Butler, research director at Chatham House, a London research organization. That means governments must use scarce resources to repay bulging loans instead of adding hospital beds or feeding hungry children. | “如果利率大幅上升，将会给弱势的发展中国家带来额外压力，因为这些国家的大部分债务是美元，”伦敦研究机构查塔姆研究所的研究主任克瑞昂·巴特勒表示。这意味着政府必须利用稀缺资源来偿还不断膨胀的贷款，而不是增加医院床位或为饥饿儿童提供食物。 |
| The slowdown in China, which is both a major supplier and buyer of goods traded with other countries, is also setting off reverberations around the world. The once exuberant real estate market has plunged. The government has imposed the world’s most stringent restrictions and lockdowns to contain Covid, and unexpected power outages have further hindered industrial production. | 作为主要的贸易物品供应国和购买国，中国的经济放缓也在全球引发了震荡。曾经繁荣的房地产市场已经陷入困境。为遏制新冠疫情，中国政府实施了世界上最严格的限制和封锁措施，而意料之外的电力短缺进一步阻碍工业生产。 |
| Growth in the euro area was revised down 0.4 percentage points to 3.9 percent, but for some countries, the drop was much steeper. Clogs in the supply chain, especially those affecting the auto industry, prompted the I.M.F. to estimate that growth in Germany — the largest economy in Europe — would decline by 0.8 percentage points, twice as much as the average of all countries that use the euro. | 欧元区的增速预测下调了0.4个百分点至3.9%，但在某些国家，降幅要大得多。供应链上的堵塞情况，尤其是那些影响汽车行业的障碍，致使IMF预估欧洲最大经济体德国的增速将下降0.8个百分点，是所有欧元国家平均水平的两倍。 |
| Covid continues to maintain its grip and the threat of a new variant remains, but the fund expects severe illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths to drop to low levels by the end of the year. | 新冠病毒继续肆虐，新变异株的威胁依然存在，但IMF预计到今年年底，重疾、住院和死亡人数将下降到较低水平。 |
| Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the impact of this latest surge had not been as devastating: “We’re seeing evidence that Omicron is holding back economic activity, but nowhere near to the same extent as the virus did before.” | 万神殿宏观经济学研究公司首席欧元区经济学家克劳斯·维斯特森表示，最近这波感染激增的影响并没有那么严重：“我们看到了奥密克戎阻碍经济活动的证据，但其程度远不及病毒之前造成的打击。” |
| Although the fund raised its growth expectations for 2023, it emphasized that the small improvement would be insufficient to counteract the slowdown in 2022. | 尽管IMF上调了2023年的增长预期，但该组织强调，这种小幅改善并不足以抵消2022年的放缓。 |
| Ms. Gopinath of the I.M.F. emphasized that however difficult the recovery had been in wealthier nations, emerging economies had been hit the hardest, with weak growth and low vaccination rates. | IMF的戈皮纳特强调，不管富有国家的复苏有多艰难，新兴经济体受到的打击都是最严重的，这些国家经济增长乏力，疫苗接种率也较低。 |
| With 70 million more people living in extreme poverty than before the pandemic, the fund called for more international cooperation to work out debt relief for struggling nations as well as more equitable distribution of Covid vaccines, tests and treatments. | 与疫情前相比，全球极端贫困人口增加了7000万，因此，IMF呼吁加强国际合作，为陷入贫困的国家提供债务减免，并更加公平地分配新冠疫苗，分享检测和治疗。 |
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