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| WASHINGTON — The war game scenario conducted by a Washington think tank began with a sudden failure at three Taiwanese semiconductor foundries that make high-end computer chips used in such items as smartphones, automobiles and military equipment. | 华盛顿——在华盛顿的一个智库，一场战棋推演从台湾三家半导体代工厂的突然故障开始。这三家工厂生产的高端电脑芯片用于智能手机、汽车和军事装备等产品。 |
| The halt in production raised questions of whether a cyberattack by Beijing was responsible — touching off an international crisis between China and the United States that the researchers said could grind the global economy to a halt and incite a military confrontation. | 生产的停止令人们怀疑北京是否发动了网络攻击，从而引发中美之间的国际危机，研究人员说，这可能使全球经济陷入停滞，并引发军事对抗。 |
| The war game and study by the Center for a New American Security, which is set to be released on Thursday, illustrate how dependent the world is on Taiwanese computer chips — and how that dependence could draw the United States and China into various kinds of conflict. | 由“新美国安全中心”进行的这次战棋推演研究报告于周四发布，它说明了世界对台湾电脑芯片的依赖程度，以及这种依赖是如何将美国和中国卷入各种冲突的。 |
| The report comes as Congress has put new energy into bills to increase domestic production of semiconductors in the United States. Diversifying the global supply chain for computer chips is a key recommendation in the report. | 这份报告出炉之际，美国国会正在努力推进增加国内半导体生产的法案。该报告的一个关键建议是实现计算机芯片全球供应链的多元化。 |
| Last week, President Biden urged Congress to pass those bills and promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States. | 上周，拜登总统敦促国会通过这些法案，并承诺他将努力使半导体芯片生产回到美国。 |
| “Today we barely produce 10 percent of the computer chips, despite being the leader in chip design and research,” Mr. Biden said. “And we don’t have the ability to make the most advanced chips now — right now. But today, 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia. Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan. China is doing everything it can to take over the global market so they can try to outcompete the rest of us and have a lot of applications — including military applications.” | “尽管我们在芯片设计和研究方面处于领先地位，但今天我们只生产了10%的电脑芯片，”拜登说。“我们现在还没有能力制造最先进的芯片。但今天，75%的生产是在东亚。90%最先进的芯片是台湾制造的。中国正在尽其所能占领全球市场，这样他们就可以试图在竞争中超过我们，并且有大量应用——包括军事上的应用。” |
| Even if Congress approves new government investments in America’s microchip production capacities, matching Taiwanese expertise is years away, if it is even possible, the report’s authors say. The United States is already more dependent on Taiwan’s high-end microchips than it was on Middle Eastern oil in decades past, the report said. | 报告的作者说，即使美国国会批准政府对美国微芯片生产能力的新投资，要想赶上台湾的技术水平也需要数年时间。报告称，美国对台湾高端微芯片的依赖已经超过了过去几十年对中东石油的依赖。 |
| China, the war game predicts, could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan’s semiconductor industry — and the United States must become better able to identify and counter Chinese tactics that could threaten the microchip supply. | 该战棋推演预测，中国可能会使用经济胁迫、网络行动和混合战术，试图夺取或损害台湾的半导体产业——而美国必须变得更有能力识别和反击中国可能威胁微芯片供应的战术。 |
| War games like this one involve current and former officials, academics and other experts sitting around a table playing various roles. After an initial scenario is presented, the teams take turns making strategic decisions. Such exercises are supposed to yield insights about how different players would act, and lay plain what sort of moves each group might make. | 像这样的战棋推演会有现任和前任官员、学者和其他专家围坐在桌边扮演各种角色。在给出初始场景之后，团队轮流做出战略决策。这样的演练用意在于在让人们了解不同的参与者会如何行动，并清楚地了解每组可能采取的行动。 |
| Becca Wasser, who helped design and lead the scenario, said while many war games were conducted to study China, most focus on conventional military threats, giving short shrift to the many ways China could exert pressure on Taiwan. | 帮助设计并领导这次推演的贝卡·瓦塞尔表示，虽然许多战棋推演都是为了研究中国而进行的，但大多集中在常规军事威胁上，忽视了中国可以对台湾施加压力的诸多方式。 |
| And countering those pressure points is difficult, especially if the United States and Taiwan are at odds over the best strategy. In the scenario, the U.S. team presumed the Taiwan team would go along with its strategies to counter China. But Taiwan’s interest sometimes led it to cross-purposes. For example, when the United States wanted to bring semiconductor engineers to the safety of America, Taiwan resisted, worried about a brain drain. | 应对这些压力点相当困难，尤其是美国和台湾在最佳战略上存在分歧的时候。在这个推演中，美国团队认为台湾团队将支持其对抗中国的战略。但台湾的利益有时会让其产生矛盾。例如，当美国想把半导体工程师带到美国的安全地带时，由于担心人才流失，台湾表示拒绝。 |
| “Whatever the United States tried to do by itself in the game really fell flat,” Ms. Wasser said. “We have seen a variety of examples of that in real life.” | “在这场推演中，不管美国想要独自做什么，结果都是失败的，”瓦塞尔说。“我们在现实生活中看到了很多这样的例子。” |
| As a result, multilateral responses and global efforts to build resiliency in the supply chain for computer chips are most likely the best strategy, the report said. | 因此，报告称，多边应对和全球努力在计算机芯片供应链中打造灵活性是最有可能的战略。 |
| Taiwan has relied on its dominance of the microchip industry for its defense. The “silicon shield” theory argued that because its semiconductor industry is so important to Chinese manufacturing and the United States consumer economy, actions that threaten its foundries would be too risky. | 台湾一直依赖自己在微芯片行业的主导地位进行防御。“硅盾”理论认为，由于台湾半导体行业对中国制造业和美国的消费经济非常重要，威胁其代工企业的行动是过于冒险的。 |
| Martijn Rasser, a co-author of the study and a former C.I.A. analyst, said it was crucial for the international community to convince Taiwan that its shield strategy needed to be internationalized. “The long-term play has to be a geographic dispersal of those capabilities out of Taiwan in exchange for enhanced security guarantees for the island,” he said. | 该研究报告的作者之一、前中央情报局分析师马丁·拉瑟表示，国际社会必须说服台湾其的防御战略需要国际化。他表示：“长期的策略必须是将这些能力分散到台湾以外的地区，以换取对该岛的更多安全保障。” |
| The Biden administration has made clear that in the case of Ukraine, while the United States would economically punish Russia for any invasion, it would not commit troops to fight alongside Kyiv to stop any intervention by Moscow. The longstanding American policy toward Taiwan calls for shoring up its defenses and practicing strategic ambiguity over whether Washington would militarily intervene in a conflict over the island. | 拜登政府已经明确表示，在乌克兰问题上，尽管美国将对俄罗斯的入侵行为进行经济惩罚，但不会派遣军队与基辅并肩作战来阻止莫斯科的干预。美国长期以来的对台政策要求加强其防务，并对华盛顿是否会对围绕该岛发生的冲突进行干预保持战略上的模糊。 |
| But Taiwan and its semiconductors are far more important to America’s economy than Ukraine is — meaning it would very likely be far more difficult for the United States to stay out of a conflict involving Taiwan. | 但台湾及其半导体对美国经济的重要性远远超过乌克兰——这意味着美国很可能更加难以在涉及台湾的冲突中置身事外。 |
| Taiwan accounts for half of the overall production of microchips that are critical to the functioning of mobile phones, consumer electronics, cars, military equipment and more. South Korea, the nearest competitor, has about 17 percent of the overall market. But Taiwanese chips are the smallest and fastest, and its foundries account for 92 percent of the most advanced designs. | 台湾的产量占据整个微芯片产量的一半。微芯片对手机、消费类电子产品、汽车、军事装备等设备的运行至关重要。韩国是最接近它的竞争对手，拥有大约17%的市场份额。但台湾的芯片最小、最快，其芯片代工厂的产量占到最先进设计的92%。 |
| “It’s almost impossible to duplicate Taiwan’s manufacturing capability of high-end chips, of low-end chips,” said Dan Blumenthal, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “It’s just the manufacturing hub of the world.” | “台湾在高端芯片和低端芯片方面的制造能力几乎是不可能复制的，”美国企业研究所学者丹·布卢门塔尔表示。“它就是世界的制造中心。” |
| Although the United States and Europe are trying to boost their own domestic design and production of semiconductors, they do not have the abilities to mass produce the most advanced designs that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, can make. | 虽然美国和欧洲正在努力提高本国半导体的设计和生产，但并没有能力大规模生产台积电生产的最先进设计。 |
| “If the semiconductor supply chain is infringed upon by China in some way, all of the sudden the things that Americans look to in their daily lives, to get to and from work, to call their loved ones, to do a variety of different things, those disappear,” Ms. Wasser said. | “如果半导体供应链在某种程度上受到了中国的侵犯，那么美国人日常生活中习惯的东西——上下班、给亲人打电话、做各种各样的事情——就会突然消失，”瓦塞尔说。 |
| Other experts said it would be an overstatement to say that the United States would be dragged into a war over microchips. China will decide what kinds of coercive measures it will take against the Taiwanese based on the perceived threat to its sovereignty and the expected international backlog, said Bonny Lin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. | 其他专家则表示，美国将被拖入一场微芯片战争的说法是夸大其词。战略与国际研究中心的林碧莹表示，中国将根据其主权受到的威胁以及预期的国际储备情况，决定对台湾采取何种强制措施。 |
| “China is not going to base their Taiwan policy, or any decision to use force against Taiwan, based on chips,” Dr. Lin said. “China thinks about the costs of an invasion of Taiwan — there are significant political and military costs. That is why I don’t think chips would figure among the top three factors of using military force against Taiwan.” | “中国不会将他们的台湾政策，或任何对台湾使用武力的决定建立在芯片之上，”林碧莹说。“中国考虑的是入侵台湾的代价——有重大的政治和军事代价。所以我认为芯片不会成为对台湾使用军事力量的三大因素之一。” |
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