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| WASHINGTON — Companies are bracing for another round of potentially debilitating supply chain disruptions as China, home to about a third of global manufacturing, imposes sweeping lockdowns in an attempt to keep the Omicron variant at bay. |
| 华盛顿——随着全球约三分之一的制造业所在地中国为遏制奥密克戎变异株的传播采取大范围的封城措施，各地企业正为新一轮可能削弱企业生产的供应链中断做准备。 |
| The measures have already confined tens of millions of people to their homes in several Chinese cities and contributed to a suspension of connecting flights through Hong Kong from much of the world for the next month. At least 20 million people, or about 1.5 percent of China’s population, are in lockdown, mostly in the city of Xi’an in western China and in Henan Province in north-central China. |
| 封城措施已将中国几座城市的数千万人限制在家中，并暂停世界各地途经香港的转机。至少有2000万人（约占中国人口的1.5%）目前处于封锁状态，主要在西安和河南。 |
| The country’s zero-tolerance policy has manufacturers — already on edge from spending the past two years dealing with crippling supply chain woes — worried about another round of shutdowns at Chinese factories and ports. Additional disruptions to the global supply chain would come at a particularly fraught moment for companies, which are struggling with rising prices for raw materials and shipping along with extended delivery times and worker shortages. |
| 中国的新冠清零政策让制造商们担心，中国的工厂和港口会再次关停，这些制造商因在过去两年里忙于应对严重的供应链问题已经处于困难状态。全球供应链进一步被搅乱会让正在应对原材料价格上涨、运输成本飙升、交货时间延长，以及劳动力短缺等问题的企业面临更严重的问题。 |
| China used lockdowns, contact tracing and quarantines to halt the spread of the coronavirus nearly two years ago after its initial emergence in Wuhan. These tactics have been highly effective, but the extreme transmissibility of the Omicron variant poses the biggest test yet of China’s system. |
| 近两年前，中国用封城、密接追踪和隔离等措施遏制了新冠病毒在武汉首次出现后的国内传播。尽管这些措施一直非常有效，但奥密克戎变异株的高度传染性已对中国遏制新冠病毒的努力构成了迄今为止最大的考验。 |
| So far, the effects of the lockdowns on Chinese factory production and deliveries have been limited. Four of China’s largest port cities — Shanghai, Dalian, Tianjin and Shenzhen — have imposed narrowly targeted lockdowns to try to control small outbreaks of the Omicron variant. As of this weekend, these cities had not locked down their docks. Still, Volkswagen and Toyota announced last week that they would temporarily suspend operations in Tianjin because of lockdowns. |
| 到目前为止，封城对中国工厂的生产和交货影响还不大。中国四个最大的港口城市——上海、大连、天津和深圳——已采取了高度针对性的封闭管理措施，以试图遏制奥密克戎变异株的小规模暴发。截至上个周末，这些城市还没有对码头采取封闭管理措施。尽管如此，大众汽车和丰田汽车已在上周宣布暂停天津工厂的生产，原因是封闭管理。 |
| Analysts warn that many industries could face disruptions in the flow of goods as China tries to stamp out any coronavirus infections ahead of the Winter Olympics, which will be held in Beijing next month. On Saturday, Beijing officials reported the city’s first case of the Omicron variant, prompting the authorities to lock down the infected person’s residential compound and workplace. |
| 分析人士警告，随着中国试图在北京冬季奥运会下月开幕之前清除所有的新冠病毒感染病例，许多行业可能会面临货物流动的中断。上周六，北京市官员通报了该市首例奥密克戎变异株确诊病例，促使当局对该名感染者的住宅小区和工作场所进行了封闭管理。 |
| If extensive lockdowns become more widespread in China, their effects on supply chains could be felt across the United States. Major new disruptions could depress consumer confidence and exacerbate inflation, which is already at a 40-year high, posing challenges for the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve. |
| 如果大范围的封城在中国变得更加普遍的话，对供应链的影响可能会波及整个美国。对供应链新的重大干扰可能会导致消费者信心消沉，让已经处于40年来最高位的通货膨胀变得更糟，给拜登政府和美联储带来挑战。 |
| “Will the Chinese be able to control it or not I think is a really important question,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “If they’re going to have to begin closing down port cities, you’re going to have additional supply chain disruptions.” |
| “我认为，中国能否控制它是个非常重要的问题，”美中贸易全国委员会首席顾问克雷格·艾伦说。“如果他们不得不开始对港口城市进行封城的话，就会有更多的供应链搅乱。” |
| The potential for setbacks comes just as many companies had hoped they were about to see some easing of the bottlenecks that have clogged global supply chains since the pandemic began. |
| 全球供应链自新冠疫情开始以来出现了瓶颈问题，就在许多公司原本希望看到这个问题会有所缓解的时候，供应链可能再次受阻。 |
| The combination of intermittent shutdowns at factories, ports and warehouses around the world and American consumers’ surging demand for foreign goods has thrown the global delivery system out of whack. Transportation costs have skyrocketed, and ports and warehouses have experienced pileups of products waiting to be shipped or driven elsewhere while other parts of the supply chain are stymied by shortages. |
| 世界各地的工厂、港口和仓库不时地关停，加上美国消费者对外国商品的需求激增，已使全球配送系统陷入混乱。运输成本飙升，港口和仓库面临着大批等待卸货运往别处的产品运不出去的问题，而供应链的其他部分则受到短缺的困扰。 |
| For the 2021 holiday season, customers largely circumvented those challenges by ordering early. High shipping prices began to ease after the holiday rush, and some analysts speculated that next month’s Lunar New Year, when many Chinese factories will idle, might be a moment for ports, warehouses and trucking companies to catch up on moving backlogged orders and allow global supply chains to return to normal. |
| 消费者通过在2021年底的节假日前提前购物基本上避开了供应链的挑战。过高的运输成本在节假日购物高峰过后已开始出现下降，一些分析人士曾推测，在中国下个月的农历新年期间，许多工厂会停工，这可能会给港口、仓库和卡车公司提供一个窗口，让它们处理积压下来的订单，让全球供应链恢复正常。 |
| But the spread of the Omicron variant is foiling hopes for a fast recovery, highlighting not only how much America depends on Chinese goods, but also how fragile the supply chain remains within the United States. |
| 但奥密克戎变异株的传播正在让快速恢复正常的希望破灭，这不仅突显了美国对中国商品的依赖程度，也突显了美国国内的供应链多么脆弱。 |
| American trucking companies and warehouses, already short of workers, are losing more of their employees to sickness and quarantines. Weather disruptions are leading to empty shelves in American supermarkets. Delivery times for products shipped from Chinese factories to the West Coast of the United States are as long as ever — stretching to a record high of 113 days in early January, according to Flexport, a logistics firm. That was up from fewer than 50 days at the beginning of 2019. |
| 本来已经人手不足的美国货运公司和仓库因为生病和隔离正在失去更多的员工。恶劣天气造成的中断让美国的超市货架空空。据物流公司Flexport的数据，将产品从中国工厂运往美国西海岸的交货时间比以往任何时候都长，今年1月初已达到了创纪录的113天，远高于2019年初的不到50天。 |
| The Biden administration has undertaken a series of moves to try to alleviate bottlenecks both in the United States and abroad, including devoting $17 billion to improving American ports as part of the new infrastructure law. Major U.S. ports are handling more cargo than ever before and working through their backlog of containers — in part because ports have threatened additional fees for containers that sit too long in their yards. |
| 拜登政府已采取一系列措施试图缓解美国国内和国外的供应链瓶颈问题，包括新基础设施法为改善美国港口提供的170亿美元资金。美国主要港口正在处理的货物比以往任何时候都多，还要处理积压的集装箱货物，部分原因是港口已威胁对停留时间过长的集装箱收取额外费用。 |
| Yet those greater efficiencies have been undercut by continuing problems at other stages of the supply chain, including a shortage of truckers and warehouse workers to move the goods to their final destination. A push to make the Port of Los Angeles operate 24/7, which was the centerpiece of the Biden administration’s efforts to address supply chain issues this fall, has still seen few trucks showing up for overnight pickups, according to port officials, and cargo ships are still waiting for weeks outside West Coast ports for their turn for a berth to dock in. |
| 然而，这些提高效率的措施被供应链其他环节持续存在的问题抵消了，包括没有足够多的卡车司机和仓库工人，无法将货物运到最终目的地。拜登政府去年秋季为解决供应链问题所做努力的核心内容是，让洛杉矶港每周七天、每天24小时运转，但港口官员说，至今仍很少看到夜间来拉货的卡车。货船仍需在西海岸港口外等待数周，才能得到停靠泊位。 |
| West Coast ports could see further disruptions this year as they renegotiate a labor contract for more than 22,000 dockworkers that expires on July 1. Previous negotiations led to work slowdowns and shipping delays. |
| 美国西海岸的港口今年可能会遇到更多问题，因为港口与逾2.2万名码头工人的劳动合同将于7月1日到期，需要谈判新合同。以前的这种谈判曾导致工作放缓和运货推迟。 |
| “If you have four closed doors to get through and one of them opens up, that doesn’t necessarily mean quick passage,” said Phil Levy, the chief economist at Flexport. “We should not delude ourselves that if our ports become 10 percent more efficient, we’ve solved the whole problem.” |
| “如果需要打开四个关着的门才能通过，而只有一扇门是打开的，这肯定不意味着快速通过，”Flexport的首席经济学家菲尔·列维说。“我们不应该糊弄自己，认为如果我们将港口的效率提高10%，就能解决所有的问题。” |
| Chris Netram, the managing vice president for tax and domestic economic policy at the National Association of Manufacturers, which represents 14,000 companies, said that American businesses had seen a succession of supply chain problems since the beginning of the pandemic. |
| 克里斯·尼特拉姆是全美制造商协会负责税收和国内经济政策的执行副总裁，该机构代表着美国1.4万家公司。他说，自从新冠疫情开始以来，美国企业已遇到了一系列的供应链问题。 |
| “Right now, we are at the tail end of one flavor of those challenges, the port snarls,” he said, adding that Chinese lockdowns could be “the next flavor of this.” |
| 他说，“此刻，我们正处在供应链挑战的最后阶段，即港口交通阻塞。”他还表示，中国的封城可能是“下一个挑战”。 |
| Manufacturers are watching carefully to see whether more factories and ports in China might be forced to shutter if Omicron spreads in the coming weeks. |
| 制造商们正在密切关注中国是否会迫使更多的工厂和港口关停——如果奥密克戎变异株的传播在未来几周继续扩大的话。 |
| Neither Xi’an nor Henan Province, the site of China’s most expansive lockdowns, has an economy heavily reliant on exports, although Xi’an does produce some semiconductors, including for Samsung and Micron Technology, as well as commercial aircraft components. |
| 在中国目前采取大规模封城措施的西安和河南省，其经济都没有高度依赖出口，尽管西安确实生产一些半导体（包括为三星和美光科技生产的）和商用飞机零部件。 |
| Handel Jones, the chief executive of International Business Strategies, a chip consultancy, said the impact on Samsung and Micron would be limited, but he expressed worries about the potential for broader lockdowns in cities like Tianjin or Shanghai. |
| 芯片咨询公司国际商业战略的首席执行官汉德尔·琼斯说，西安封城对三星和美光的影响不会太大，但他对像天津或上海这样的其他城市采取更大范围封城的可能性表示了担忧。 |
| “What we’re concerned with now is, is Xi’an a template for other cities in China?” he asked. “If they can’t control it in the next two or three weeks, then I think you could have a significant impact on the supply chain. Right now, it’s kind of the tipping point.” |
| “我们现在担心的是，西安会不会成为中国其他城市的样板？”他问道。“如果他们不能在未来两到三周内控制住疫情，那么我认为，会看到对供应链的重大影响。现在是个转折点。” |
| Chinese authorities are experimenting with more narrowly targeted lockdowns. One example is in Shanghai, which announced on Thursday that it had identified five Covid cases at a milk tea shop that had been visited by a Chinese student who had recently returned from the United States. Rather than lock down the entire city or neighborhood, the government put emergency restrictions on the shop itself. |
| 中国的有关部门也正在尝试精准性更高的封锁措施。一个例子是在上海，该市周四宣布在一家奶茶店发现了五宗新冠病毒感染病例，一名最近从美国回来的中国学生曾光顾过这家奶茶店。政府没有封锁整个城市或社区，而是对奶茶店实施了紧急封锁。 |
| Tim Huxley, the chairman of Mandarin Shipping, a Hong Kong-based container shipping line, said that social distancing rules, elaborate testing and other precautions had slightly reduced the efficiency of Chinese ports. |
| 总部位于香港的集装箱航运公司文华航运董事长蒂姆·赫胥黎表示，社交距离规定、复杂的检测和其他预防措施略微降低了中国港口的效率。 |
| But after considerable disruptions during lockdowns last year, Chinese docks have proved increasingly able to continue operating through municipal lockdowns. To forestall infections, they have barred ship crews from coming ashore and have required some dock workers to live for many weeks at a time in nearby dormitories instead of going home to their families at night. |
| 去年的封锁曾经导致严重干扰，但此后的事实证明，在城市封锁期间，中国码头越来越有能力继续运营。为了防止感染，他们禁止船员上岸，并要求一些码头工人晚上不要回家，连续数周住在附近的宿舍。 |
| China plans similar arrangements to keep athletes and other foreigners completely separate from its population during the Winter Olympics next month. Beijing traffic authorities have even told residents to stay away from any vehicle collisions involving Olympic participants, to avoid infection. |
| 中国计划在下个月的冬奥会上做出类似安排，将运动员和其他外国人与当地民众完全隔离开来。北京交通部门甚至告诉民众在与奥运专用车辆发生碰撞后不要下车，以避免感染。 |
| Last year, terminal shutdowns in and around Ningbo and Shenzhen, respectively the world’s third- and fourth-largest container ports by volume, led to congestion and delays, and caused some ships to reroute to other ports. |
| 去年，宁波和深圳及其周边的码头关闭，导致拥堵和延误，一些船舶改道前往其他港口。宁波和深圳分别是世界第三和第四大集装箱港口。 |
| But if the coronavirus does manage to enter a big port again, the effects could quickly be felt in the United States. “If one of the big container terminals goes into lockdown,” Mr. Huxley said, “it doesn’t take long for a big backlog to develop.” |
| 但是，如果新冠病毒真的再次进入一个大型港口，美国可能很快就会感受到影响。“如果其中一个大型集装箱码头进入封锁状态，”赫胥黎说，“很快就会出现大量积压。” |
| Airfreight could also become more expensive and harder to obtain in the coming weeks as China has canceled dozens of flights to clamp down on another potential vector of infection. That could especially affect consumer electronics companies, which tend to ship high-value goods by air. |
| 未来几周，空运也可能会变得更加昂贵，运力更加紧张，因为中国取消了数十个航班以遏制另一个潜在的感染媒介。这可能尤其影响到消费电子公司，它们在运输高价值货物时倾向于选择空运。 |
| For American companies, the prospect of further supply chain troubles means there may be another scramble to secure Chinese-made products ahead of potential closures. |
| 对于美国公司而言，供应链进一步陷入困境的前景意味着，潜在封锁发生之前，它们可能会再次争夺中国制造的产品。 |
| Lisa Williams, the chief executive of the World of EPI, a company that makes multicultural dolls, said the supply chain issues were putting pressure on companies like hers to get products on the shelves faster than ever, with retailers asking for goods for the fall to be shipped as early as May. |
| 生产多元文化玩偶的公司World of EPI的首席执行官丽莎·威廉姆斯表示，供应链问题给像她这样的公司带来了压力，他们要比以往更快地将产品上架，零售商要求秋季商品早至5月发货。 |
| Dr. Williams, who was an academic specializing in logistics before she started her company, said an increase in the price of petroleum and other raw materials had pushed up the cost of the materials her company uses to make dolls, including plastic accessories, fibers for hair, fabrics for clothing and plastic for the dolls themselves. Her company has turned to far more expensive airfreight to get some shipments to the United States faster, further cutting into the firm’s margins. |
| 威廉姆斯博士在创办公司之前是一名专门从事物流的学者，她说，石油和其他原材料的价格上涨推高了公司用来制造娃娃的材料成本，包括塑料配件、做头发用的纤维、衣服面料和玩偶本身的塑料。她的公司已选择更昂贵的空运，以更快地将一些货物运往美国，而这进一步削减了公司的利润。 |
| “Everything is being moved up because everyone is anticipating the delay with supply chains,” she said. “So that compresses everything. It compresses the creativity, it compresses the amount of time we have to think through innovations we want to do.” |
| “每件事情都被提前了，因为每个人都预料供应链会延迟，”她说。“所以这压缩了一切。它压缩了创造力，压缩了我们想要的创新思考时间。” |
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